Summer 2012: 3rd hottest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on September 10, 2012

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The summer of 2012 was the 3rd hottest summer in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. June 2012 ranked as the 14th warmest June on record, August was the 16th warmest August on record, and July was the warmest month of any month in U.S. history, bringing the average summer temperature of the contiguous U.S. just 0.2°F shy of the hottest summer on record--the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Second place is held by 2011, which was just 0.1°F cooler than the summer of 1936. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - August. Temperatures this year in the U.S. have been so far above the previous record--a remarkable 1°F for the year-to-date period--that even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. Reliable weather records for the U.S. go back to 1895. The most recent 12-month period of September 2011 - August 2012 was the 4th warmest 12-month period in U.S. history, exceeded only by the 12-month periods ending in July, June, and May of this year.


Figure 1. The summer of 2012 was the warmest on record for Wyoming and Colorado, and ranked in the top-ten warmest on record for 22 other states. For the Contiguous U.S., it was the 3rd warmest summer since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through August, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from September through December, the remaining five months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. The January-August 2012 contiguous U.S. average temperature was 58.7°F, 4.0°F above average. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - August period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 47% during the year-to-date January - August period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 85% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eight months of 2012, and 75% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 22%, which was the 11th greatest since 1910.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - August shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eight months of the year on record, with 47% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


I saw bomb-proof concrete hangars demolished at Homestead AFB. Nothing to do with bad code. They are currently trying to build structure to withstand winds higher than 150 mph. Very little stands up to winds above 150mph.


Yep Gro - did not see with my own eyes but did see pictures of Hardened Aircraft Shelters (HAS) demolished by Andrew (and more effectively than some weapons could achieve)- was especially interested as I was then involved in NATO Infrastructure programmes and HASs were a major expenditure issue.
Additionally, IMO - there is concrete and there is concrete - how good is the steel, what is slump rate of concrete etc
Mother Nature is a foe that is at times well nigh impossible to defeat, however hard we may try.
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Had to jump in on this one...
While here in Puerto Rico we do have many concrete buildings, most homes in fact are reinforced concrete with think steel rods... 180 mph is out of the question.
Sustained 180mph winds means probable gusts of 200+ mph, most of those nice "Valcor" windows are designed for 150mph, they well be ripped off.

Also, the truth is that most houses may be concrete and well built, but a lot of the aren't designed by engineers and are more "ad ons" that many people have made.

Even a good home would be in danger if a 180mph storm came. You'd sin of being foolish if you didn't realize that would be a bulldozer pushing against your home for hours on end... Not to mention what a branch flying through the air at that speed could do.

During Georges my Valcor "hurricane proof" windows didn't fly off, but even with the shutters geyser of water were shooting out of them and these windows were bending inwards greatly. It was terrifying to watch helplessly. They didn't break, and for all I know this is how they react and is what makes them survive (like a swaying building).


Either way, we are well prepared and used to these catastrophes. We do loose electricity for a while, being that it takes a while to reach some critical ruptures in remote places. But thankfully, Puerto Ricans and many in the Caribbean (with the sad exception of Haiti and occasionally the DR) do well with hurricanes.

Many people did loose their roof with Georges, but thankfully most loss was material and life was protected well. All in all, a Georges with the strength it hit Puerto Rico hitting somewhere like Florida usually leaves scenes of entire neighborhoods reduced to foundations of buildings.

To wrap it up... I do think places in the US need stricter building codes if they are going to allow so many people to live in dangerous areas, particularly storm surge prone coasts.
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Quoting SSideBrac:
I, for one, sincerely hope that the people of PR do not have to go through a 180 MPH Cat 5 just to prove that concrete homes will withstand it.
I have some grave reservations about that general assumption, as most homes (at least the ones I know) have roofs and windows and doors.
Additionally, no mention was made of possible damages caused by waves/surge/flooding/mudslides - unless built like the Hoover Dam - a lot of concrete structures loose to mother nature in these events.
There are degrees of resistance but nothing is 100% proof against damage.


There were many concrete buildings in the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area that were destroyed during hurricane Charley. It really is a bad assumption that just because it's concrete it will survive. Every building is just a large sealed pressure envelope, and if you have enough force to break the seal it's gonna come down (or be severely compromised)
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Forecast for Halifax
Issued : 4:00 PM ADT Monday 10 September 2012

Tonight
Periods of rain ending overnight then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Amount 10 to 20 mm. Wind north 20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming northwest 40 gusting to 60 overnight. Low 12.

Tuesday
Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early in the morning. Clearing late in the afternoon. Wind northwest 40 km/h gusting to 60 diminishing to 20 in the afternoon. High 17. UV index 4 or moderate.

Tuesday night
Clear. Low 10.

Wednesday
Sunny. High 22.

Thursday
Sunny. Low 10. High 22.

Friday
Sunny. Low 13. High 22.

Saturday
Sunny. Low 13. High 22.

Sunday
A mix of sun and cloud. Low 13. High 20.
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St. John's and vicinity
3:44 PM NDT Monday 10 September 2012
Hurricane watch for
St. John's and vicinity continued

Potential for marginal hurricane conditions on Tuesday.

A hurricane watch means that a hurricane or an incipient hurricane condition poses a possible threat to the specified areas within 36 hours.

A trough of low pressure has stalled near the west coast of Newfoundland and will remain nearly stationary as it interacts with tropical storm Leslie approaching Newfoundland from the south.

This trough will accelerate and steer Leslie toward Southeastern Newfoundland where it is expected to make landfall as a marginal hurricane or strong tropical storm later Tuesday morning. As Leslie interacts with the trough it will enhance the heavy rainfall already occurring with the trough as well as strengthen the winds behind it. However the strongest winds are most likely just to the right of Leslie's track at landfall where southeasterly gusts of 120 km/hour are currently expected. Hurricane watches are in effect for the areas most likely to see these right-of-track winds, taking into account the possibility of a slightly more westward track. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for much of Eastern Newfoundland.

Rain at times heavy associated with the trough will continue for Western Newfoundland tonight and into Tuesday with the forecasted arrival of tropical storm Leslie. Some areas on the west coast have already reported between 40 and 70 millimeters and in areas with the heaviest rain a further 100 millimetres is possible over the next 24 hours.

In addition, tropical storm Leslie will bring very large waves and pounding surf to southern and eastern regions of the island Tuesday morning to afternoon. The highest impact is expected from the Burin Peninsula to the Southern Avalon where the largest waves and surge are expected.

These very large waves, pounding surf, and storm surge will coincide with a falling tide and as a result, impacts from higher high water levels are not expected at this time. However an increase in the approach speed of tropical storm Leslie would increase the likelihood of potentially hazardous high water levels on Tuesday, especially in the area of Placentia Bay. These very large waves, pounding surf, and storm surge have the potential to damage coastal infrastructure for coastlines exposed to the south and southeast.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest forecast position and track information map.

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Forecast for St.Johns
Issued : 4:00 PM NDT Monday 10 September 2012

Tropical storm warning in effect

Hurricane watch in effect

Wind warning in effect.

Tonight
Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers after midnight. Rain at times heavy beginning overnight. Wind south 30 km/h gusting to 50 except gusting to 70 along parts of the coast. Low 16.

Tuesday
Rain at times heavy ending in the morning then mainly cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Amount 20 to 30 mm. Wind southeast 80 km/h gusting to 100 except gusting to 120 along parts of the coast in the morning. Wind becoming northwest 50 gusting to 70 in the afternoon. High 22 with temperature falling to 16 in the afternoon. UV index 4 or moderate.

Tuesday night
Cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Clearing overnight. Wind northwest 30 km/h gusting to 50. Low 10.

Wednesday
A mix of sun and cloud. High 15.

Thursday
A mix of sun and cloud. Low 8. High 19.

Friday
A mix of sun and cloud. Low 12. High 21.

Saturday
A mix of sun and cloud. Low 9. High 17.

Sunday
A mix of sun and cloud. Low 11. High 17.
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 101456
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012

LESLIE NEVER DEVELOPED AN INNER CORE...AND CONTINUES AS A LARGE
SPRAWLING CYCLONE WITH MOST OT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER. GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.
LESLIE NEVER INTENSIFIED AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS A FEW DAYS
AGO...AND THERE IS LITTLE TIME REMAINING FOR LESLIE TO INTENSIFY AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS ALREADY REACHING COOL WATERS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WINDS BY 10 KNOTS...BUT THIS
INTENSIFICATION...IF IT OCCURS...WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
SINCE LESLIE IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH...THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CENTER OF LESLIE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS AROUND
THAT TIME THAT LESLIE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...AND THEN REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 37.0N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 41.4N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 48.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0000Z 55.0N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1200Z 60.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 101733
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012

...LESLIE RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 59.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST. LESLIE HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H. THIS GENERAL HEADING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
LESLIE MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting Grothar:


I saw bomb-proof concrete hangars demolished at Homestead AFB. Nothing to do with bad code. They are currently trying to build structure to withstand winds higher than 150 mph. Very little stands up to winds above 150mph.
Gro.....I worked as a volunteer at Tamiami Airport for 2 months... The very large I-Beams were twisted like paper straws, I worked helping out FPL and contractor crews from other states... I saw things that I though were impossible that wind could do..
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WOCN31 CWHX 101745
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3:08 PM ADT Monday
10 September 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Labrador
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island.

For tropical storm Leslie.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

Very large tropical storm Leslie enroute to Atlantic Canada
With widespread direct and indirect impacts - heavy rainfall
And strong winds.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.

Location: 39.1 north 59.6 west.

About 780 kilometres south of Sydney.

Maximum sustained winds: 100 km/hour.

Present movement: north near 34 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 985 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect for parts
of southern and Eastern Newfoundland expected to be directly affected
by tropical storm Leslie tomorrow. Rainfall warnings are in effect
for Central and Eastern Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and most of
Newfoundland.

Tropical storm Leslie will have both direct and indirect impacts in
Atlantic Canada as follows: a frontal trough over the Maritimes will
only move very slowly eastward due to the presence of Leslie to the
south. 100 millimetres of rain has already fallen over parts of Nova
Scotia from this trough with more expected today. The front will
begin to merge with Leslie tonight with the combined systems crossing
Newfoundland on Tuesday giving additional heavy rainfall to some of
the already-warned areas. Leslie's centre will likely be making
landfall near the buring peninsula Tuesday morning. However the
storm's effects will be far-reaching with a circulation about 800
kilometres in diameter so do not put much focus on the line on the
track map.

Much-smaller hurricane Michael well to the east of Leslie is not
expected to have any impact on the region. It appears that storm
will likely be bypassed by Leslie's large circulation and then
dissipate east of the Grand Banks.

A. Wind.

Leslie already has a large wind circulation and as it interacts with
the existing trough over the region strong and gusty winds will
affect most of the Maritimes tonight and Tuesday. The strongest
winds are expected to be confined to Eastern Newfoundland in areas
100 to 300 kilometres to the right of the track, where southerly
winds of 80 gusting to 120 km/h are expected. Northerly winds behind
Leslie are not expected to be quite as strong at this time but gusts
to 90 or 100 km/h are not out of the question for parts of western
and Northern Newfoundland. In Nova Scotia the strongest winds behind
the merged systems will be over Cape Breton where gusts to 80 km/h
are expected Tuesday morning.

Wind impacts include the possibility of some tree damage over Eastern
Newfoundland with wind gusts over 100 km/h. This may lead to downed
utility lines and minor property damages.

B. Rainfall.

Very heavy rainfall from the merged front/Leslie is expected over
Nova Scotia, pei and Newfoundland. Event-total rainfall of 100-150
millimetres (4 to 6 inches) are possible based on the computer models
and experience with setups like this in the past. Location of the
heaviest rainfall will be in the areas along the existing trough and
to the west of Leslie's track, which for now includes central and
eastern mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton, and Western Newfoundland.

In the particularly hard-hit Truro area, additional rainfall of 10-20
millimetres is forecast but if the front bumps-back to the west even
just a few kilometers, that can make a difference in the additional
amounts. However, we do believe the worst rainfall has already
occurred there.

Torrential rainfall impacts from this storm include the possibility
street flooding, property erosion and road washouts. Hazards for
motorists include reduced visibilities, hydroplaning, and possible
compromised roadbeds and bridges.

C. Surge/waves.

Heavier surf conditions will develop tonight into Tuesday morning
along the entire Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia. On Tuesday as the
storm arrives in Southeastern Newfoundland there will be some surge
accompanying Leslie's arrival during the morning but the impacts are
likely to offset by coincident low tides in that area Tuesday
morning.

In addition,Canadian and U.S. wave models are indicating large long
period waves are forecast for Eastern Nova Scotia and Southern
Newfoundland beginning on Tuesday morning. Waves of about 3-5 metres
are expected for the Atlantic coast of Eastern Nova Scotia. Waves of
4-7 metres are forecast for the southwest coast of Newfoundland
increasing to 8-12 metres for the Placentia Bay area then diminishing
to 5 to 8 metres east of the Avalon Peninsula.

These heavy pounding waves could lead to elevated waters levels and
some coastal erosion in exposed or vulnerable areas.

There is also a possibility of hazardous storm surge in placentia
Bay and the Burin Peninsula region if Leslie accelerates tonight to
reach Newfoundland overnight or very early in the morning at high
tide (about 6 AM local time).

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for Maritimes and
Newfoundland marine waters to the east of the track. Storm and gale
warnings are in effect for adjacent waters. Details can be found in
the latest marine forecasts issued from the Atlantic storm prediction
center and the Newfoundland and Labrador weather office.

Coastal impacts include possible damage to docks and wave overwash in
prone areas around the Southern Avalon, Placentia Bay and the Burin
Peninsula.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/COUTURIER/FOGARTY/MERCER

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I, for one, sincerely hope that the people of PR do not have to go through a 180 MPH Cat 5 just to prove that concrete homes will withstand it.
I have some grave reservations about that general assumption, as most homes (at least the ones I know) have roofs and windows and doors.
Additionally, no mention was made of possible damages caused by waves/surge/flooding/mudslides - unless built like the Hoover Dam - a lot of concrete structures loose to mother nature in these events.
There are degrees of resistance but nothing is 100% proof against damage.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


No but its something, we cant really blame the appalachians like NC can, and we dont have any major geographic obstacle on the GA/AL border but its something.
The only reason the western tier of GA counties even has more tornado warnings is that the storms are in AL and get their warning extended to GA, but they die and the GA warning ends up being a bust much of the time.

We just call it the state line curse, storms chug along and promptly die nearly exactly on the border.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I always said there was a state line curse between Alabama and GA killing all storms on the GA border...
This map proves it, its not even a gradual dropoff, its quite sudden at the state line.

Dixie alley has had the most tornadoes


Last 10 years of Tornado Warnings (Each warning with 5% opacity)


The western tier of GA counties has more tornadoes than counties just to their east and TN counties on the border with GA have significantly more tornado warnings than GA counties have had....its depressing.
You might look at it this way. The most *warnings*, not necessarily the most tornadoes. Warning error rates are high. An informal review by Patrick Marsh of "tornado emergency" warnings showed several of these also ended abruptly at the Georgia border. Sorry I don't have a link handy. Makes one wonder about individual NWS offices and their individual trigger levels for warnings. At least it makes me wonder.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Saw it with my own eyes Gro.. Guess one has to see it to believe it...


I saw bomb-proof concrete hangars demolished at Homestead AFB. Nothing to do with bad code. They are currently trying to build structure to withstand winds higher than 150 mph. Very little stands up to winds above 150mph.
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Quoting JLPR2:


As long as the temps aren't baking a walk is always nice.
south Florida is baking many months of the year. Luckily I am 100 yards from the Intracoastal
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170. JLPR2
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I would like to see a concrete home "only sandblasted" by 180 MPH winds..Not going to happen... I will take a walk later, but thank you for the suggestion that I need to


As long as the temps aren't baking a walk is always nice.
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Quoting JLPR2:


You should really go and take a walk, read carefully before commenting.

I would like to see a concrete home "only sandblasted" by 180 MPH winds..Not going to happen... I will take a walk later, but thank you for the suggestion that I need to
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Quoting VR46L:


The quote and comment aimed at me ...

The fact that Ireland had their worst summers in years which you were extremely rude about . but the UK met has now released similar results ...Maybe its start of a trend


Yep, wettest and cloudiest summer here in the UK for something like a century. The jet stream is playing up, probably as a result of Arctic Ocean ice melt.

In theory, as the ice melts and the temperature difference between arctic and temperate latitudes diminishes, the jet stream ought to move north.

But, the reality is, that its meandering 'loops' also become more pronounced, and the UK has been under its loops all summer.

Since the 80s, we had about 20 years of mild winters in the UK as a result of global warming. That changed a few years ago, when the jet stream became stuck in a pattern that dragged cold air down from Greenland to the UK. The recently elucidated 'arctic dipole', believed to be caused by increased Arctic ocean ice melt, is thought to be responsible, although I'm not clear about how this happens in winter, when the ocean is covered in ice.

The UK and Ireland is just a small corner of Europe, though. Most of the continent has been warmer than usual, and there's been another poor wheat harvest in Russia/Ukraine.
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Being that 1936 was the warmest summer ever, does that mean we were experiencing GW 76 years ago? Sarcasm obviously

Call it what you like!
76 years ago people were experiencing an anomaly.
Now people are experiencing global warming.Both last year and this, plus a few years before then as well.
CO2 nearing 400PPM. Interesting times ahead.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
If you live on an island built with good infrastructure you usually fare well even in a major hurricane. Just make sure you stock up, as power will likely remain out for weeks.


A dangerous generalisation and one I am sure that people in Grand Cayman would disagree with post Ivan
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Quoting ncstorm:
It is a beeaauuutttiiiffull day here in eastern NC..fall is here and ding dong the humidity witch is dead and I am loving it! Hope everyone is having a great day so far!


Also a beautiful day in southwest Nova Scotia. The trough yesterday gave us quite a lot of rain, but it's cleared off and the humidity has fallen. We're just getting a bit of breeze from Leslie, but I'm afraid the northern part of the province isn't so lucky. Link
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Probably not, seems 14 was a mistake by HPC. NHC just updated 91L for 18Z, still a LO


AL, 91, 2012091018, , BEST, 0, 158N, 397W, 25, 1008, LO


Strange it is still showing in both the Navy and tropical Atlantic sites as TD 14
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163. JLPR2
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Tomball......I disagree, This person was stating that PR would be ok with 180 MPH winds because of the concrete structures.....I wonder what % of the structures are actually prepared for 180 MPH.. ? Not a large percentage I am sure.


You should really go and take a walk, read carefully before commenting.

Quoting PRweathercenter:
Puerto Rico Is very well prepared for Hurricanes, Even a 180 mph Category 5 Hurricane would do nothing to Concrete homes, except rip the paint off, like sand blasted
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
And people


that was covered by "all the folks" :)
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Quoting islander101010:
rainier times for p.rico should be beginning soon no shortage here in e cen florida
The period man has spaces
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


No but its something, we cant really blame the appalachians like NC can, and we dont have any major geographic obstacle on the GA/AL border but its something.
The only reason the western tier of GA counties even has more tornado warnings is that the storms are in AL and get their warning extended to GA, but they die and the GA warning ends up being a bust much of the time.

We just call it the state line curse, storms chug along and promptly die nearly exactly on the border.



Increase in surface divergence caused by the downslope from the Cumberland plateau...
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rainier times for p.rico should be beginning soon no shortage here in e cen florida
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

He is not referring to everything else. He was only referring to the fact that the concrete homes would fare well, not necessarily anything outside of the confinement.
Tomball......I disagree, This person was stating that PR would be ok with 180 MPH winds because of the concrete structures.....I wonder what % of the structures are actually prepared for 180 MPH.. ? Not a large percentage I am sure.
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91L
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Fujiwhara? IF a Fujiwhara interaction is taking place, by the 11Sept.12am ATCF:
TS.Leslie should be slowing down with less eastward & less northward components to its travel
H.Michael should be speeding up with more northward & more westward components to its travel.
The distance separating them should decrease
NovaScotia and Newfoundland should come into play as within the possible landfall zone for both TropicalCyclones... unlike what yesterday's prediction models&cones were showing.
Derived from the NHC's 10Sept.12pmGMT ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie & for HurricaneMichael
BHB-BarHarbor :: CWRW-FourchuHead :: YYT-St.John's :: YMH-Mary'sHarbour
All times in GMT
The longest line is the straightline distance between TS.Leslie and H.Michael most recent positions.
Beneath and to the side of the longest line:
on the left, TS.Leslie's path between 9Sept6pm & 10Sep6pm broken into 6hour segments
on the right, H.Michael's path between 9Sept6pm & 10Sep6pm broken into 6hour segments

10Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been 868miles(1397kilometres)West of H.Michael
TS.Leslie's vector had been 26.4*NNEast @ 16.7mph(26.9kmh)
H.Michael's vector had been 277.1*West @ 09.7mph(15.6kmh)
10Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie was 773miles(1244kilometres)West of Michael
TS.Leslie's vector was 20.5*NNWest @ 25.8mph(41.5km/h)
H.Michael's vector was 296.8*WNWest @ 12.9mph(20.7km/h)

Copy&paste bda,34.0n47.1w-38.5n59.8w, bhb,cwrw, 32.7n62.3w-33.8n62.0w, 33.8n62.0w-35.1n61.6w, 35.1n61.6w-36.4n60.8w, 36.4n60.8w-38.5n59.8w, yyt,ymh, 33.7n43.5w-33.6n44.1w, 33.6n44.1w-33.4n44.9w, 33.4n44.9w-33.5n45.9w, 33.5n45.9w-34.0n47.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and more information
The previous mapping of TS.Leslie and H.Michael
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155. JLPR2
Quoting indianrivguy:


what about everything else? Sayyy all the folks that don't live in a reinforced concrete bunker. How much infrastructure can you lose before it matters. Howabout the cars, buses and boats, birds, bees and trees.


Of course there would be damage, what do you think, everyone here has money to buy or build a concrete home?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



I swear the whole Caribbean is in here clamoring for rain.

we have drought
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152. JLPR2
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



I swear the whole Caribbean is in here clamoring for rain.


Aye! XD
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Probably not, seems 14 was a mistake by HPC. NHC just updated 91L for 18Z, still a LO


AL, 91, 2012091018, , BEST, 0, 158N, 397W, 25, 1008, LO


That's odd. Usually the Navy site has the "inner knowledge" on these things, so I assumed they were just getting ready for the new storm. Oh well. Back to lurking. Thanks.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


what about everything else? Sayyy all the folks that don't live in a reinforced concrete bunker. How much infrastructure can you lose before it matters. Howabout the cars, buses and boats, birds, bees and trees.
And people
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


You always make good points but aren't very nice about it.
Isn't there some way you could be just maybe a tad bit nicer?
No one joins a group they feel alienated from..


Not addressed to me... not my business maybe... but I will take true over nice any day. If we listen to what makes us feel better or seems "nicer", we will make no progress towards what is actually the truth.
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Quoting ncstorm:
It is a beeaauuutttiiiffull day here in eastern NC..fall is here and ding dong the humidity witch is dead and I am loving it! Hope everyone is having a great day so far!

Good afternoon everyone. Perfect day up here too, first real taste of fall with temperatures in the 60s!

Michael still hanging in there:

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Quoting JLPR2:


Yes it would be terrible and very scary, but I repeat, a reinforced concrete house would fare pretty well. I don't see your point.


what about everything else? Sayyy all the folks that don't live in a reinforced concrete bunker. How much infrastructure can you lose before it matters. Howabout the cars, buses and boats, birds, bees and trees.
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Quoting Grothar:
Concrete building Homestead AFB - post Andrew



Saw it with my own eyes Gro.. Guess one has to see it to believe it...
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Concrete building Homestead AFB - post Andrew



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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just popping in and out just want to ask anyone have any monsoonal rain and gusty wind please send it down here it is really hot and quite dry thank you :)



I swear the whole Caribbean is in here clamoring for rain.
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Quoting fmbill:
So...SFWMD Model Plots webpage, and the Navy site had "14" on them. I suppose that means at 5pm we will have NHC advisories for our new storm?


Probably not, seems 14 was a mistake by HPC. NHC just updated 91L for 18Z, still a LO


AL, 91, 2012091018, , BEST, 0, 158N, 397W, 25, 1008, LO
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a cat 5 might put san juan back in the dark ages if it came from the ne. extremely rare but ne cuba recently got hit by cat 4 ike so its possible
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hey guys just popping in and out just want to ask anyone have any monsoonal rain and gusty wind please send it down here it is really hot and quite dry thank you :)
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
Puerto Rico Is very well prepared for Hurricanes, Even a 180 mph Category 5 Hurricane would do nothing to Concrete homes, except rip the paint off, like sand blasted


hmmm, perhaps, but you are not accounting for flying debris. I saw some things after Andrew that were hard to believe.
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Remember in 2005 all the climate experts said hurricanes were going to destroy the globe with super hurricanes,cat6!The US has went longest time without a major hurricane in history,now 7 years!90% of time experts are wrong,every week unemployment numbers come out they say experts were surprised, after 4 years of this garbage i do not think they are experts!Get a life people and come out of fantasy end of world thinking and live a little,it is good for the soul.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Remember, asking a person to provide valid sources isn't "being rude"; it's just seeking the truth. (Now, you said that Ireland had been cooler than normal; I pointed out, quite correctly, that Ireland makes up just a tiny, infinitesimal portion of the planet's surface, so no assumptions about the state of the global climate could be based on what happens there over the short term. If you tell me where that's incorrect, I'll address it.)

In the meantime: have a good day...
Nea, Ireland's weather is affected by the ocean. Since the ice has been melting in Greenland, I would think the cooler temps in Ireland are a result of that melting.
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So...SFWMD Model Plots webpage, and the Navy site had "14" on them. I suppose that means at 5pm we will have NHC advisories for our new storm?
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Quoting VR46L:


I am just saying that I have just gone through the coldest summer in 40 years which is unprecedented and maybe a sign of things to come . Climate goes in cycles and maybe next year there will be more of the world returning the results that I just posted ...and that these results should not be completely dismissed and maybe part of a growing trend ... I guess the Gloom merchants may have been a cheap shot but when encouraging temperatures in some part of the world are dismissed out of hand makes me wonder why...


I suspect folks were not dismissing the "encouraging" temperature data you provided, but rather they were pointing out that it is hopeless to form a conclusion about a global phenomenon using the data from a single location. Did you look at the maps I posted? Nobody (at least no respectable person) is claiming that parts of the world aren't below normal, temperature-wise. But likewise, no respectable person can deny that the data clearly show warm land areas outnumbering cool areas by a large margin. Have you seen data that counter this?
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yes it would be terrible and very scary, but I repeat, a reinforced concrete house would fare pretty well. I don't see your point.
I guess we disagree....... Seeing what 180 MPH can do in Miami I am skeptical about any structure with standing 180 MPH for hours on end... That is my point
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It is a beeaauuutttiiiffull day here in eastern NC..fall is here and ding dong the humidity witch is dead and I am loving it! Hope everyone is having a great day so far!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.