Summer 2012: 3rd hottest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on September 10, 2012

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The summer of 2012 was the 3rd hottest summer in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. June 2012 ranked as the 14th warmest June on record, August was the 16th warmest August on record, and July was the warmest month of any month in U.S. history, bringing the average summer temperature of the contiguous U.S. just 0.2°F shy of the hottest summer on record--the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Second place is held by 2011, which was just 0.1°F cooler than the summer of 1936. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - August. Temperatures this year in the U.S. have been so far above the previous record--a remarkable 1°F for the year-to-date period--that even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. Reliable weather records for the U.S. go back to 1895. The most recent 12-month period of September 2011 - August 2012 was the 4th warmest 12-month period in U.S. history, exceeded only by the 12-month periods ending in July, June, and May of this year.


Figure 1. The summer of 2012 was the warmest on record for Wyoming and Colorado, and ranked in the top-ten warmest on record for 22 other states. For the Contiguous U.S., it was the 3rd warmest summer since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through August, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from September through December, the remaining five months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. The January-August 2012 contiguous U.S. average temperature was 58.7°F, 4.0°F above average. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - August period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 47% during the year-to-date January - August period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 85% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eight months of 2012, and 75% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 22%, which was the 11th greatest since 1910.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - August shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eight months of the year on record, with 47% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KarenRei:
Thanks, Elvette :)


Your Very Welcome
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282. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
3:00 AM JST September 11 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.0N 134.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 11.3N 134.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 50471
Quoting sar2401:

Someone posted an image from that server and didn't make it public. I'm assuming it's someone from Scotland or some other part of the UK. Every time you refresh, the image trys to load but can't, thus throwing up the log in screen. Just hit cancel and go on. There's nothing harmful that I can see happening.

Oh, I know. I even know what post it is.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I hope this works now.

I spy something unusual about this image, I'll let you all figure it out.



The United States GOES WEST satellite is positioned over the Pacific Ocean at 135 degrees West, providing full disc coverage of the Pacific Ocean and much of the western American continents.

Image taken 27-Aug-1999

Reflection from the sun in the middle of the pacific, there is a massive NPAC system coming ashore in BC, and you can see Hurricane Dennis off the coast of FL.

And the moon is in an odd place.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Hogfish bar and Grill-Red Lobster :)
Love the Hogfish on Stock Island.....
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I know no one cares about the WPac..but this escalated quickly.



Two areas of interest, one high and medium. Neither of them were mentioned yesterday.
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277. VR46L
...
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Well now, looking at the models, not much happening after 91L finds its way in the open Atlantic. Quiet times indeed, both in the tropics and on this blog till next year. Go ahead and give me your story about its only September 9 and we still got half the season left, sorry, but the fat lady is tuning her voice as I blog. I've heard it all before, same ole stuff every year it seems.
LOL, we still have October where a majority of storms form in the Caribbean even in an El Nino year. I don't think it is really necessary for me to name them off. My avatar is one of those October storms.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Its password protected. Try saving the image and rehosting it.

Someone posted an image from that server and didn't make it public. I'm assuming it's someone from Scotland or some other part of the UK. Every time you refresh, the image trys to load but can't, thus throwing up the log in screen. Just hit cancel and go on. There's nothing harmful that I can see happening.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Longhorn Steakhouse-Captain Hiram's
Hogfish bar and Grill-Red Lobster :)
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Quoting JLPR2:


Though there are many houses that aren't made of concrete and or in flood prone areas. :\

But yes, in 1928 San Felipe II brought 160mph winds and by that time my grandmother was 5, she lived in a concrete house that didn't get any real damage.
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Thanks, Elvette :)
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Well now, looking at the models, not much happening after 91L finds its way in the open Atlantic. Quiet times indeed, both in the tropics and on this blog till next year. Go ahead and give me your story about its only September 9 and we still got half the season left, sorry, but the fat lady is tuning her voice as I blog. I've heard it all before, same ole stuff every year it seems.
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I hope this works now.

I spy something unusual about this image, I'll let you all figure it out.



The United States GOES WEST satellite is positioned over the Pacific Ocean at 135 degrees West, providing full disc coverage of the Pacific Ocean and much of the western American continents.

Image taken 27-Aug-1999
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Quoting PLsandcrab:



Leon County just got put back on Burn Ban. I have a police scanner and they are multiple fires being reported in our county today.


Oh no. Hope they don't get out of hand.
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268. JLPR2
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
JLPR.........Are the majority of homes built as structually as strong as your home seems to be?


I can say they don't make them as they used to. In 2009 we remodeled one of our bathrooms and the guys working in it said it was one of the hardest concrete walls they had encountered, in other words, there are weaker ones out there.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Uh Oh.... I keep getting a pop-up to your link.......Hope it stops... Everytime I refresh it pops up.

Just minus it... (sorry, GT)
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266. JLPR2
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Actually, it looks to me like the westernmost vort has moved further south.


Agreed, seems 91L is also being influenced by the easternmost vort, they are dancing around each other.

I don't expect 91L to really take off until those two vorts merge together.
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Quoting benirica:
I dont know how to put in a picture but here's the link...
I'm sure you are all familiar with these, but it's how people in Puerto Rico (and I imagine elsewhere too) used to protect themselves from hurricanes.

Pretty similar to a tornado shelter, or at least what TV and movies show of tornado shelters.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/tlehman/380066149/
The "barracas" where very useful, specially for a Cat.5 hurricane like San Felipe II, in 1928. My grandparents(they married the day before the "great hurricane of 1928) escaped to one of those home made hurricane "Shelters", and it worked,they survived 14 hours, winds over 145mph, to the point that it still there in our farm, as a monument to their courage...
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
hmm? Alright here is a link to it. Link

Its password protected. Try saving the image and rehosting it.
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Quoting JLPR2:


You would be impressed with how difficult it is to hang a photo in my house.
There are times when we have to try elsewhere since the steal nails are unable to pierce through. XD
JLPR.........Are the majority of homes built as structually as strong as your home seems to be?
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Considering that planes can fly at well over 1000 MPH and are made of metal then the solution must be to clad the buildings in metal.
Sheet metal suitably anchored into concrete should have no problem with 200 MPH winds, as long as the basic structure has sufficient weight to withstand the pressure.
It would be simple enough to clad a slab of concrete with steel and place it in a wind tunnel and air blast it or subject it to pressure at high velocity from a jet engine exhaust.
I would doubt that winds of 200 MPH would cause the surface much damage.
Added to this the winds will probably not be sustained for more than a few hours at most, planes with only alloy skins fly at 600MPH for up to 14 hours non stop.

Your airplane analogy doesn't work with typcial structures. Pressurized aircaft are perfectly sealed bodies, and their wind crossection is relatively small. The effects of pressure changes and turbulence are now mostly understood, compared to the 60's, when it was still common to lose commercial airframes to structural failure. Aircraft bodies and wings are made to flex, expand, and contract to deal with the different forces they face in flight. An airliner sitting on the ground is easily destroyed by hurricane force winds, even though it flies in moving air routinely at much higher speeds. In addition, they are expensive, which is why you need a lot of people inside paying for seats before a flight is profitable.

Commercial and residential structures are very difficult to make resistent to high winds. They aren't sealed, and wind can get in from many different angles. Building are made to stay in one place, not flex and bend like aircraft. They are also dependent on the structure remaining mostly intact to survie strong winds. If start to lose part of roof, for example, it's just a matter of time, given strong enough winds, before more connections fail and the entire building suffers a catastophic collapse. The many penetrations in the structure, like mechanical systems and vents, also contribute weakening in a way no high speed aircraft experiences.

It is possible to build a structure that will survive 200 mph winds. The ideal way is to build underground. Structures above ground need to have a monolithic shape, reinforced with adequate shielding and a redundant connection system. There are some structures, such as government command and control centers, that are already built like this. The problem for regular folks like us is that type of construction is incredibly expensive. There's also a huge, logarithmic increase in cost when you build surviveable structures. The average well built, modern home will survive mostly intact in 80 mph winds. If you want one that will survive 160 mph winds, the cost isn't twice as high, but more on the order 10-12 times as high. Building codes are usually not written to decrease damage to a structure but to prevent total collapse, trapping occupants. The hospital that suffered a near direct hit from the tornado in Joplin MO is a good example. Even though the bulding is a constructive total loss, it didn't collapse, and almost everyone in the building survived, so the construction codes and construction quality did their jobs.

Bottom line is that we can build structures to withstand almost any probable high wind event. Except for a few vital government facilites, the cost is much too high to justify them being built. We need to strengthen the building codes to protect human life. We need insurance to pay for the damage and even total reconstruction. The cost of inurance is still much less than building every structure to withstand 200 mph winds.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Uh Oh.... I keep getting a pop-up to your link.......Hope it stops... Everytime I refresh it pops up.
:( aww too bad you can't see it, I got any idea, will save and upload to photobucket.
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260. JLPR2
Quoting aspectre:
PRweathercenter: Puerto Rico is very well prepared for Hurricanes, Even a 180 mph Category 5 Hurricane would do nothing to Concrete homes, except rip the paint off, like sand blasted
158 PalmBeachWeather ...ok with 180 MPH winds because of the concrete structures... I wonder what % of the structures are actually prepared for 180 MPH...? Not a large percentage I am sure.

I'm wondering if PuertoRicans have an overconfidence in their concrete block homes. Cat.5 winds can take apart simple concrete block structures.
It takes a LOT of rebar through those hollow blocks and a LOT of concrete filling in those empty spaces around the rebar before ya have a structure that'll survive a Cat.5
Then there are the ceramic tile roofs...


You would be impressed with how difficult it is to hang a photo in my house.
There are times when we have to try elsewhere since the steal nails are unable to pierce through. XD
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Quoting Dakster:


My error, you are correct - Mourning Dove.

Anyway.....They can put your eye out
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Quoting KarenRei:
Hey, any news with our Atlantic storms? I live in Iceland now and am kind of curious as to what I can expect. We've got a lovely storm going on right now with some pretty significant winds, but I heard it's not related to Leslie.


Leslie at the moment south of Newfoundland



by thursday you will see EX Leslie hope she keeps up her trend of being a poor storm :)



You will have seen much worse storms

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Quoting PlazaRed:

I dont belive there are problems with metal clad buildings at up to 200MPH. I do agree instantly that airborne debris is a major problem to buildings with its impact speeds.
Flexing is not a problem if the cladding is anchored well. A good example of rigid resistance to wind speed effects is the heat shielding on space module reentry vehicles.
My experience of the construction industry is its usually stuck in the bricks and mortar/concrete mind set. Where would the aviation industry be if they were building jets with wooden airframes and covering them with doped fabric.
Evolve or expire.

Actually, it has nothing to do with materials. It has to do with structure. If you know the direction the wind is coming from, you can streamline against it. But if the wind comes from the west, then stops, and comes from the east... unless the house is on a gigantic swivel, its going to have issues. Airflow and streamlines is why aircraft handle high wind speeds so well. Most of the energy of the high speed is directed around the vehicle. You can't do that with most architecture in modern cities. Maybe in the middle of nowhere, as space isn't an issue. But in an urban environment, or even a suburban one... you'll have issues.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Is it morning or mourning......I thought it was the latter


My error, you are correct - Mourning Dove.

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I believe we have a new TD in the West Pacific, it's up as 17W on the Navy site, JTWC will probably start advisories soon as they have a TCFA out for it. It's in very favorable conditions, I'm interested to see the intensity forecast.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8314
Quoting Dakster:


And a morning dove can take them down...
Is it morning or mourning......I thought it was the latter
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I don't think the NHC should start advisories on 91L yet. Convection has been waning (yes, I know it's DMIN out there but it's more than that) and I expect we'll see it continue and there may not be much left in a few hours. I do expect it to get some sustained convection and develop before too long but it's not ready yet.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8314
Quoting GTcooliebai:
hmm? Alright here is a link to it. Link
Uh Oh.... I keep getting a pop-up to your link.......Hope it stops... Everytime I refresh it pops up.
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Considering that planes can fly at well over 1000 MPH and are made of metal then the solution must be to clad the buildings in metal.
Sheet metal suitably anchored into concrete should have no problem with 200 MPH winds, as long as the basic structure has sufficient weight to withstand the pressure.
It would be simple enough to clad a slab of concrete with steel and place it in a wind tunnel and air blast it or subject it to pressure at high velocity from a jet engine exhaust.
I would doubt that winds of 200 MPH would cause the surface much damage.
Added to this the winds will probably not be sustained for more than a few hours at most, planes with only alloy skins fly at 600MPH for up to 14 hours non stop.


And a morning dove can take them down...
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...
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I spy something unusual about this image, I'll let you all figure it out.



The United States GOES WEST satellite is positioned over the Pacific Ocean at 135 degrees West, providing full disc coverage of the Pacific Ocean and much of the western American continents.

Image taken 27-Aug-1999
No image here
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...
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Quoting indianrivguy:


how do you put the nose of the house into the wind? :)

apples - oranges
houses - airplanes
Longhorn Steakhouse-Captain Hiram's
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Around here we've had a lot of rain since last winter. To my west there was elevated fire danger with this front coming through. They're still drier than we are.
Return flow off the gulf supposed to start back up tomorrow and with it the humidity.



Leon County just got put back on Burn Ban. I have a police scanner and they are multiple fires being reported in our county today.
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Considering that planes can fly at well over 1000 MPH and are made of metal then the solution must be to clad the buildings in metal.
Sheet metal suitably anchored into concrete should have no problem with 200 MPH winds, as long as the basic structure has sufficient weight to withstand the pressure.
It would be simple enough to clad a slab of concrete with steel and place it in a wind tunnel and air blast it or subject it to pressure at high velocity from a jet engine exhaust.
I would doubt that winds of 200 MPH would cause the surface much damage.
Added to this the winds will probably not be sustained for more than a few hours at most, planes with only alloy skins fly at 600MPH for up to 14 hours non stop.


how do you put the nose of the house into the wind? :)

apples - oranges
houses - airplanes
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Quoting PlazaRed:

I dont belive there are problems with metal clad buildings at up to 200MPH. I do agree instantly that airborne debris is a major problem to buildings with its impact speeds.
Flexing is not a problem if the cladding is anchored well. A good example of rigid resistance to wind speed effects is the heat shielding on space module reentry vehicles.
My experience of the construction industry is its usually stuck in the bricks and mortar/concrete mind set. Where would the aviation industry be if they were building jets with wooden airframes and covering them with doped fabric.
Evolve or expire.
PlazaRed.....Not doubting your expertise... But my observations with hurricanes, Andrew included, It just amazes me what 180+ winds can do... I think that it is not just a sustained wind of exactly 180+ winds... it is the wind that goes from 120 to 180+ in a matter of seconds that causes the big problem, but that is just my thinking.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Leslie will be there in a few days.


Any idea what Leslie will be, though? Anything worth writing home about?
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Quoting SSideBrac:


And are, either, aerodynamic or, "fly by wire" to allow them to move/adjust as they do - interesting thought a "fly by wire house".

I dont belive there are problems with metal clad buildings at up to 200MPH. I do agree instantly that airborne debris is a major problem to buildings with its impact speeds.
Flexing is not a problem if the cladding is anchored well. A good example of rigid resistance to wind speed effects is the heat shielding on space module reentry vehicles.
My experience of the construction industry is its usually stuck in the bricks and mortar/concrete mind set. Where would the aviation industry be if they were building jets with wooden airframes and covering them with doped fabric.
Evolve or expire.
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Quoting KarenRei:
Hey, any news with our Atlantic storms? I live in Iceland now and am kind of curious as to what I can expect. We've got a lovely storm going on right now with some pretty significant winds, but I heard it's not related to Leslie.

Leslie will be there in a few days.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34213
Between tropical storms, summer rain, and more tropical blobs, the lakes have come up a foot in Central florida making it in some cases up to "minimum desirable" water levels. Other lakes like Apopka are still low.
South Florida has even more water and structures there are finally discharging some serious volumes of water to keep levels steady.

Hope the weather is turning for the best where you are.
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Hey, any news with our Atlantic storms? I live in Iceland now and am kind of curious as to what I can expect. We've got a lovely storm going on right now with some pretty significant winds, but I heard it's not related to Leslie.
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Link
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I dont know how to put in a picture but here's the link...
I'm sure you are all familiar with these, but it's how people in Puerto Rico (and I imagine elsewhere too) used to protect themselves from hurricanes.

Pretty similar to a tornado shelter, or at least what TV and movies show of tornado shelters.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/tlehman/380066149/
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91L
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Remember this one, Rita? A result of the Texas Death Ridge (TDR)



The black hole
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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