Leslie bears down on Newfoundland; TD 14 forming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 10, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie has left Bermuda behind, and is chugging north-northeastwards at 18 mph towards an early Tuesday morning encounter with Newfoundland. Leslie brushed by Bermuda on Sunday, with the core of the storm passing 120 miles to the east of the island. The highest winds in Bermuda occurred at Saint David's weather station on the east end of the island, where Leslie brought sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 54 mph, at 12:31 pm AST. The station picked up 3.15" of rain from Leslie. A few scattered power outages occurred on Bermuda, but no major damage was reported.


Figure 1. Predicted rainfall from Tropical Storm Leslie, as forecasted by the 2 am EDT September 10, 2012 run of the GFDL model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for western Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Forecast for Leslie
Satellite loops show that Leslie has failed to form an eyewall, and the entire southwest quadrant of the storm is devoid of any heavy thunderstorms. The storm's large size and limited time over warm water will keep it from becoming any stronger than a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at landfall in Newfoundland near 4 am EDT on Tuesday morning, and it is more likely that Leslie will have top winds just below hurricane strength, 65 - 70 mph. The latest 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 31% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Tuesday morning at 2 am EDT, when the storm will be near the coast of Newfoundland. Leslie's strongest winds will be felt on the Avalon Peninsula, on the southeast portion of the island, and the capital of St. Johns will likely experience sustained winds of 45 - 60 mph on Tuesday during the peak of the storm. However, heavy rain will be the main threat from Leslie, and the heaviest rains will fall to the west of the center, where Leslie will be interacting with a cold front. The latest 2 am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models suggest that western Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia may receive 4 - 8 inches of rain, which would likely cause moderate to major floods on area rivers.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Leslie and Hurricane Michael at seen at 9:15 am EDT Monday September 10, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 60 mph, and Michael was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds.

Hurricane Michael remains a Category 1 hurricane
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is Hurricane Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5. Michael remains a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds today, and satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas, and Michael will likely weaken below hurricane strength tonight and die at sea over cold waters southeast of Newfoundland in 2 - 3 days.

91L about to become Tropical Depression 14
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 91L) is about to become Tropical Depression Fourteen, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Several of our reliable models predict that the cold front currently sweeping off the U.S. East Coast will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean near Bermuda late this week, which may serve as the focus for development of a new tropical depression. Any storm that develops in this region would likely have a complicated and difficult-to-predict interaction with 91L (soon to be TD 14), which will pass close to the east.

With today marking the climatological halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season, the hurricane season of 2012 shows no signs of slowing down from its near-record pace of generating new named storms. Two more tropical waves are predicted to come off the coast of Africa later this week and early next week, and it would not be surprise to see one of these new waves develop by early next week. Today's El Niño discussion from NOAA/CPC shows a continuation of El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific, but the atmosphere stubbornly refuses to respond much to the heating of the waters. Wind shear remains seasonably low over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and is predicted to remain so for at least the next ten days.

Jeff Masters

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103. chrisale
4:28 AM GMT on September 11, 2012
There was an excellent report on tonights The National on CBC tonight about the rainfall and extreme flooding that has already hit Nova Scotia even before Leslie hits Newfoundland.

People have been evacuated, streets are flooded, all the things you always see.

Western Newfoundland was also already being pounded Monday.

Hoping Leslie lets up...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
102. AWeatherLover
10:36 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Today is the 52nd anniversary of Hurricane Donna, an incredibly powerful Category 4 storm that impacted South Florida. Click below for our commemoration of this historic hurricane:

Do You Remember Hurricane Donna?


I had the honor of working with the National Weather Service to create an archive of severe weather events affecting the Tampa Bay area and one of the hurricanes we highlighted was Hurricane Donna. Here is a Link if you care to see some interesting charts, graphics and accounts of the storm as it affected our area. Just click on the August 30, 1960 link under "Hurricanes."
Member Since: November 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 431
101. RTSplayer
7:25 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I thought it was number 1. The when were the other two hottest? Weren't they like 80 years ago or something like that??....


For the U.S., 1934 was the Dust Bowl, but that too was caused by, or at least greatly enhanced by human beings, altering the landscape with bad farming practices, poor rotation among the most important. There was more to it of course, it was probably already an exceptionally hot year anyway, but once you destroy the soil and the moisture content, then it's a lot easier to drive up the temperatures.

We do a lot more with water management and a more scientific approach to farming in all respects, so it certainly didn't get that bad in terms of the drought or soil erosion this year.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
100. bappit
5:57 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:

They distinguish El Nino episodes and el nino conditions.

"El Ni%uFFFDo: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to 0.5%uFFFDC.

"By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni%uFFFDo or La Ni%uFFFDa episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

"CPC considers El Ni%uFFFDo or La Ni%uFFFDa conditions to occur when the monthly Ni%uFFFDo3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed /- 0.5%uFFFDC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months."

Sea surface temps alone do not constitute el nino conditions. They have repeatedly said that the atmosphere has not responded to the higher sea temps that have been observed.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6093
99. Skyepony (Mod)
5:26 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Isn't there also the atmospheric lag between the cooling of the air above the ocean up into the higher atmosphere.


Yes I mentioned that in #54 & for the short term it holds true. That's why numbers are averaged across 3 months. It takes 5 months of 3 month averages at 0.5 or above before it's an official El Niño. We are so far from that. JJA (June, July, Aug) is 0.1, Region 1-3 have already weakened, JAS will average warmer but historically the trend just isn't that fast.

Bigger overall is the shift in polar cool spot, we've been noting how this is probability over riding ENSO. This would normally wobble around a bit but not any more during summer..I'd say the UK and NW Europe are in for many a wet cold summers while Greenland has ice. The new polar summer cool spot set up a High over Greenland all summer long, rearranging the lows & highs, precipitation & such in a some what stagnate pattern. I generated this graph for a 100 days of summer..sea level pressure anomaly..it's been a consistent summer, don't expect any big change for second 1/2 with all that sea ice gone.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38650
98. LesBonsTemps
4:56 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

blockquote>

In the United States.
Member Since: August 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
97. HurrMichaelOrl
4:49 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting 7544:
looks like the one after 91L if it forms will also recurve


This is pretty much the expectation for all Cape Verde systems from this point in the season forward.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
96. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:48 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
95. unknowncomic
4:48 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting unknowncomic:
Link
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2105
94. JLPR2
4:47 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Ah, how things change, this is what the GFS originally thought that 91L would do.


Shockingly different. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
93. HurrMichaelOrl
4:47 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
Contiguous U.S. experiences 3rd hottest summer on record

Warm and dry conditions continue in August; Isaac brings heavy rain to Gulf Coast and some drought relief to the Midwest

The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during August was 74.4°F, 1.6°F above the long term average, marking the 16th warmest August on record. The warmer than average August, in combination with the hottest July and a warmer than average June, contributed to the third hottest summer on record since recordkeeping began in 1895.

The summer season's (June-August) nationally-averaged temperature was 74.4°F, 2.3°F above the 20th century average. Only the summers of 2011 (74.5°F) and 1936 (74.6°F) had higher temperatures for the Lower 48.

The August nationally-averaged precipitation total of 2.59 inches was near the long-term average. The Southwest and Southeast were wetter than average and the Northwest and the Northern Plains were drier than average. As of August 28th, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly 63% of the contiguous U.S. continued to experience drought conditions.



more here


This was actually Florida's wettest summer on record?! Wow! I knew we had a nice wet summer, but "wettest on record" is saying a lot.

All of the vegetation here looks incredibly healthy and lush here from all the rain. I grow a ton of plants and they clearly appreciate a wet summer.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
92. unknowncomic
4:46 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting unknowncomic:
There has been extra African wave activity this year. Something suspicious looking showing up on a model near the BOC.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2105
91. LargoFl
4:45 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40959
90. unknowncomic
4:45 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
There has been extra African wave activity this year. Something suspicious looking showing up on a model near the BOC.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2105
89. wxchaser97
4:45 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Back to class, see everyone later. I'm looking forward for the track of 91L once it become TD14.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
88. LargoFl
4:44 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1037 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2012

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER
AT TRILBY...

.THE HEAVY RAIN FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC OVER THE GREEN SWAMP HAS SLOWLY
WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH THE HEADWATERS OF THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AND WILL
KEEP THE WATER LEVELS AT TRILBY UP PAST THE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC053-101-110337-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-120913T1200Z/
/TRBF1.1.ER.120903T0100Z.120906T1300Z.120913T0600 Z.NO/
1037 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
THE WITHLACOOCHEE AT TRILBY
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING
* AT 9AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.2 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.2 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER
WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AT LACOOCHEE, TALISMAN ESTATES,
RIVERDALE, RIVER HEIGHT ESTATES, AND NOBLETON
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.9 FEET ON AUG 24
2003.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME TUE WED THU FRI SAT

WITHLACOOCHEE
TRILBY 12 12.2 MON 9 AM 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.8

$$

Rip Current Statement
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1208 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2012

FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-111000-
/O.CON.KJAX.RP.S.0014.000000T0000Z-120912T0000Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1208 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2012

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

* TIMING...LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND AN INCREASED FREQUENCY OF RIP
CURRENTS BY LATE THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FOR ANY
SWIMMER. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO LARGE BREAKERS CAN KNOCK
YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO RIP CURRENTS. IT IS
ADVISED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH
PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. REMAIN CALM
AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE
FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT. EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40959
86. LargoFl
4:42 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40959
85. LargoFl
4:40 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOR TO TRITON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.2W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.2W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 60.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 41.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 48.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 55.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 250SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 60.5N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 180SE 180SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 360SE 300SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...ABSORBED


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 60.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40959
84. AussieStorm
4:38 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes. Fixed. The year-to-date stat is the more eye-opening one: 2012 has recorded the hottest first eight months of the year ever. Yikes...

So 2012 could become number 1? Yikes!!
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
83. wxchaser97
4:38 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm impressed to see Michael perseverating. It really looked like it was falling apart last night.


Yeah, Michael just does not want to die. I think he has been interesting to track.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
82. PalmBeachWeather
4:36 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Thank you Levi.I was hoping you would give your opinion
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5928
81. Neapolitan
4:36 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


The summer season's (June-August) nationally-averaged temperature was 74.4°F, 2.3°F above the 20th century average. Only the summers of 2011 (74.5°F) and 1936 (74.6°F) had higher temperatures for the Lower 48.
Yes. Fixed. The year-to-date stat is the more eye-opening one: 2012 has recorded the hottest first eight months of the year ever. Yikes...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13603
80. wxchaser97
4:35 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Checking in at lunch, thanks Dr. Masters. I'm sure we will get TD14 at 5pm.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
79. Levi32
4:33 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
"With today marking the climatological halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season, the hurricane season of 2012 shows no signs of slowing down from its near-record pace of generating new named storms. Two more tropical waves are predicted to come off the coast of Africa later this week and early next week, and it would not be surprise to see one of these new waves develop by early next week. Today's El Nino discussion from NOAA/CPC shows a continuation of El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific, but the atmosphere stubbornly refuses to respond much to the heating of the waters. Wind shear remains seasonably low over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and is predicted to remain so for at least the next ten days."

I respectfully disagree with this. The equatorial Pacific has been at weak El Nino conditions all summer, and classic signs of its presence have been in the Atlantic that entire time. Let's take a look at the June-August period that we have under the belt already.

850mb zonal wind anomalies reveal anomalously strong easterly trades in the Caribbean clashing with westerlies out of the Pacific, illustrating the low pressure there typical of an El Nino. This has caused Caribbean waves and storms to struggle all year. Notice the zonal anomalies change to westerly as you move into the central-eastern Atlantic, indicating a stronger than normal monsoonal flow into western Africa, which was expected given that Africa is heading into a period of high Sahel precipitation activity.



Furthermore, the positive west to east gradient in zonal wind anomalies across the tropical Atlantic indicates high levels of low-level divergence, and thus sinking air, that have been dominating the tropical Atlantic all season long. Indeed, the precipitation anomalies support this:



All of the high precipitation anomalies have been to the north and west of the main development region, classic for an El Nino season. Also notice the wetter than normal Sahel, contributing to strong tropical waves this year.

Something to also consider is that the first three storms of this season were subtropical in nature and would not have counted before the 1970s, and although ACE so far this year is above normal, it is not on pace to remain so if we fail to get a major hurricane this month. We have a ways to go yet.

This season is also very typical of many seasons that came before it. During the 1950s, back when Africa was last in a high Sahel Precipitation phase, many of the El Nino seasons near that time were normal to above normal in terms of total storm count, even during a time when storms were likely undercounted due to lack of satellite telemetry, and without subtropical cyclones being counted. The high numbers then and this year I believe can be partially attributed to high tropical wave activity coming off of Africa, something that eventually causes more genesis events once those waves leave the deep tropics, as there are more disturbances given opportunities than normal despite the ENSO phase.

I submit that one cannot judge the impact of an ENSO event on the Atlantic hurricane season based solely on the number of tropical cyclones that develop during that season. Many other parameters are affected by the ENSO, and the impact of the current weak El Nino on the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is very clear.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
78. AussieStorm
4:31 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Close; 1936 is number three on the list, and 2011 is at number two.

So far as the year as a whole, 2012 has been the hottest year-to-date on record:

hot


The summer season's (June-August) nationally-averaged temperature was 74.4°F, 2.3°F above the 20th century average. Only the summers of 2011 (74.5°F) and 1936 (74.6°F) had higher temperatures for the Lower 48.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
77. Neapolitan
4:29 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

1934 was one
Close; 2011 is number one on the list, and 1936 is at number two.

So far as the year as a whole, 2012 has been the hottest year-to-date on record:

hot
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13603
76. AussieStorm
4:26 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
I see not just the sea ice loss as a disruption in El Niño on the N Atlantic atmosphere, but the shift in the polar cold spot to Greenland which is closer to the Atlantic Basin than the rest.

Isn't there also the atmospheric lag between the cooling of the air above the ocean up into the higher atmosphere.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
75. Skyepony (Mod)
4:24 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
I see not just the sea ice loss as a disruption in El Niño on the N Atlantic atmosphere, but the shift in the polar cold spot to Greenland which is closer to the Atlantic Basin than the rest.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38650
74. JLPR2
4:22 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
I'm impressed to see Michael perseverating. It really looked like it was falling apart last night.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
73. CybrTeddy
4:20 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I thought it was number 1. The when were the other two hottest? Weren't they like 80 years ago or something like that??....


Pretty much every summer, winter, fall and spring as of late is on the top 3 hottest something.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
72. AussieStorm
4:18 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I thought it was number 1. The when were the other two hottest? Weren't they like 80 years ago or something like that??....

1934 was one
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
70. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:12 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
The NCDC has confirmed that, with the help of July 2012, the summer of 2012 was the third hottest on record.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
69. SubtropicalHi
4:10 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
.


I suspect that the atmosphere not responding to the changing ocean conditions may have connections to the record sea ice melt and the North Atlantic and Atlantic-side Arctic warming so much.







Keen observation. You might be on to something.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 377
68. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:10 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
We just need one more named storm to make this season be above average. No better day for that to happen than today... The peak of the season. We also had the strongest hurricane alive during this day. Happy 9/10!!!!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
67. 7544
4:02 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
looks like the one after 91L if it forms will also recurve
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
66. RTSplayer
3:59 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
With today marking the climatological halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season, the hurricane season of 2012 shows no signs of slowing down from its near-record pace of generating new named storms. Two more tropical waves are predicted to come off the coast of Africa later this week and early next week, and it would not be surprise to see one of these new waves develop by early next week. Today's El Niño discussion from NOAA/CPC shows a continuation of El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific, but the atmosphere stubbornly refuses to respond much to the heating of the waters. Wind shear remains seasonably low over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and is predicted to remain so for at least the next ten days.


I suspect that the atmosphere not responding to the changing ocean conditions may have connections to the record sea ice melt and the North Atlantic and Atlantic-side Arctic warming so much.





the only "cold spots" in the Atlantic are where stalled or slow-moving Hurricanes have passed, including the NE Gulf from Isaac and the cold front, Leslie's ridiculous stall zone, and part of Michael's track.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
65. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:58 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
No td14 then... Curious to see the 2 pm two. Why atcf plays like that?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
64. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:56 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
I guess classification will occur at 5pm EDT.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
63. AussieStorm
3:55 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Um... ok.... why???

Agriculture Dept. starts seeding clouds to head off El Niño.

A month after addressing the damage caused by enhanced monsoon rains in August, the Department of Agriculture (DA) is taking on an entirely different tack – seeding clouds with sodium solution or salt to induce rain against an expected dry spell.

DA-Region 7 director Angel Enriquez said in a phone interview with GMA News Online that they have conducted cloud-seeding operations in Bohol, which has experienced the first bout of the drought.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its August 15 advisory warned that the effects of El Niño may start from August to October.

“Initial impact of the likely developing El Niño during September is below normal rainfall condition in the eastern portions of Northern and Central Luzon, including Palawan, some portions of Western and Central Visayas and Western Mindanao,” PAGASA said in its advisory.

In Bohol, average rainfall slumped to 6.8 millimeters so far this year compared to a yearly average of 138 mm in the past three years, Enriquez told GMA News Online.

The cloud seeding operations – which started August 30 – brought rains over the towns of Sierra Bulllones, Pilar and Alicia, Enriquez added.

“All the dams are now at normal levels. So there’s nothing to worry about,” the Agriculture official.

She cited Malinao dam in Pilar, Bohol, which went back to its normal level of 151 meters after hitting critical level at 146 meters.

Bayungan dam in San Miguel was also back at 45 meters from a critical 42 meters, as well as Capayas dam in Ubay at 35 meters from 31 meters, Enriquez.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
62. unknowncomic
3:53 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting unknowncomic:
Sounds like we may not be out of the woods yet in the MDR. Good thing 90L is recurving..its the size of Isaac.
Make that 91L.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2105
61. unknowncomic
3:50 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Sounds like we may not be out of the woods yet in the MDR. Good thing 90L is recurving..its the size of Isaac.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2105
60. AussieStorm
3:46 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Contiguous U.S. experiences 3rd hottest summer on record

Warm and dry conditions continue in August; Isaac brings heavy rain to Gulf Coast and some drought relief to the Midwest

The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during August was 74.4°F, 1.6°F above the long term average, marking the 16th warmest August on record. The warmer than average August, in combination with the hottest July and a warmer than average June, contributed to the third hottest summer on record since recordkeeping began in 1895.

The summer season's (June-August) nationally-averaged temperature was 74.4°F, 2.3°F above the 20th century average. Only the summers of 2011 (74.5°F) and 1936 (74.6°F) had higher temperatures for the Lower 48.

The August nationally-averaged precipitation total of 2.59 inches was near the long-term average. The Southwest and Southeast were wetter than average and the Northwest and the Northern Plains were drier than average. As of August 28th, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly 63% of the contiguous U.S. continued to experience drought conditions.



more here
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
59. Neapolitan
3:45 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Meanwhile in the EPAC:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209101544
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2012, DB, O, 2012090912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902012
EP, 90, 2012090912, , BEST, 0, 115N, 940W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2012090918, , BEST, 0, 118N, 945W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2012091000, , BEST, 0, 120N, 950W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2012091006, , BEST, 0, 123N, 955W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 126N, 965W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13603
58. VR46L
3:44 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting Dodabear:


Nea, isn't ATCF just a computer program and is not really people making judgements on these systems?


Thats a very good point Doda
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
57. Dodabear
3:44 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Correct. People sometimes refer to it as though it's an organization, or a department at the NHC, but it's not. From the source:

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system was developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in 1988. This is a software package used to plot tropical cyclone information and assist in the generation of forecast messages.


Thanks. That is what I thought. I often see remarks about how could they (ATCF) do this or that. I wanted to tell them it is not a "they" but an "it."
Member Since: July 28, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2279
56. AussieStorm
3:42 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting Dodabear:


OMG!!! I am on aussies ignore list. How will I ever be able to take it.

At least I won't have to deal with his comments on things I blog.

OK, so do we have a new TD or not???

But you will still be able to see what I say. Yes we may have another TD, waiting on the NHC to name it on there next advisory
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
55. Neapolitan
3:41 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting Dodabear:


Nea, isn't ATCF just a computer program and is not really people making judgements on these systems?
Correct. People sometimes refer to it as though it's an organization, or a department at the NHC, but it's not. From the source:

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system was developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in 1988. This is a software package used to plot tropical cyclone information and assist in the generation of forecast messages.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13603
54. Skyepony (Mod)
3:41 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Happy Peak of Season Everyone!

Well~ MJO didn't come to our party. It's off causing havoc in other parts of the world. Pakistan was hit hard.


Kinda neat was the guys that made that chart has been working with NASA on the unmanned flights into Leslie.

For second 1/2 of season doom...Probably reached a plateau in ENSO for the next month or more. I still like a warm neutral with some El Nino conditions at times for the rest of season.. When you start looking at 3 month averages, which after last month was only 0.1, the chances of the weak El Nino conditions hitting the atmosphere is such a way to affect the rest of cane season is small. I could see atleast 24 storms total for the year, mostly weaker storms. Maybe another huge one or two & atleast another small cute storm more toward the NE Atlantic. Don't see anyone out of the woods for the season.. Even CaribBoy~ ITCZ has to come south & settle down a little at some point as we move toward winter. NFL should continue to be the hot spot, could get near a handful more..& yes I'm counting remnants.

Peak of season is also Wunderground membership drive day. If you've spent hours here entertained or found the info you needed consider becoming a paying member..the ads go away & the Nexrad radar loop becomes adjustable to 40 frames.

Hope everyone gets the weather they want for the second half..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38650
53. VR46L
3:39 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting Dodabear:


OMG!!! I am on aussies ignore list. How will I ever be able to take it.

At least I won't have to deal with his comments on things I blog.

OK, so do we have a new TD or not???


Aye Doda!!! we do according to the Navy site

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.