Leslie brushing Bermuda, heading for Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2012

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It's a wet, windy day on Bermuda today, where Tropical Storm Leslie is bringing high winds and heavy rain as the storm's core passes 120 miles (200 km) east of the island. At the Saint David's weather station on the east end of the island, Leslie brought sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 54 mph, at 12:30 pm AST today. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is over the island, and these rains will continue through most of the afternoon, and the Bermuda airport is closed until 4 pm AST. Satellite loops show that Leslie is a large storm with a huge eye 60 miles (100 km) in diameter, but the storm does not have an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar, taken at 12:43 AST.

Forecast for Leslie
As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become a Category 1 hurricane. The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 36% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Tuesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds are expected to extend outward from its center 160 miles to its northwest on Tuesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pound the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Leslie as seen by NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:20 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 60 mph. Bermuda is the yellow triangle at the left of the image. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 1
Hurricane Michael has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters east of Newfoundland in 3 - 4 days.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 9:40 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 91L) is 250 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The disturbance is large with plenty of spin, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to dry air. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Kinda ridiculous how good the eye of Michael looks on this image, in spite of the convection being relatively weak.

Really must be hybridizing now. Still very powerful and impressive storm though.




It also took a hard SW turn in the past several frames.

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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Sun all the time is boring...rain/clouds all the time is boring...I do like variety in my weather. I prefer it here over So. California though, as a bit more variety, and would rather the norm be rain over sun all the time LOL


I'm the opposite I need the sun and I love hot, sunny days more than any other kind. No winter would be great with a few rain days thrown in.
I got a whopping .10" of rain from the cold front but cloudy all day, yuck. Storms were coming in from the Gulf north and south of Madeira Beach. Tarpon Springs got trained on a lot today.
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Hello Everyone. Are we going to have a cold winter this year? Elnino?


Where are you? Some areas will have a cold winter and others a normal or above normal winter.
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Quoting bappit:

Can you give a link to the satellite view you mention? I only see full disk or close to Eire.

Full Europe Visible
Check out all the views in the "Satellite" link on the left side of the web site. It's not the NHC, but it should give you a pretty good picture of anything sneaking its way toward Ireland, the UK, and Europe.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14265
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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158. VR46L
Quoting bappit:

Can you give a link to the satellite view you mention? I only see full disk or close to Eire.


The NHC Site actually would be the one I use the most for tracking them . The Irish only has the full disk the UK Met is so so as well Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Why I love hurricane season.



I still think Michael, at least, and maybe Leslie too, will eventually end up in Greenland as extratropical storms if they aren't picked up by the ATL westerlies quick enough. This has certainly been the year of high latitude storms.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14265
156. VR46L
Quoting wxchaser97:
2 good looking Tropical cyclones, priceless.


Tell that to anyone who is facing into these two "fish"... huh
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Quoting sar2401:

Ireland has a pretty good met site with satellie views that cover te whole N. Atlantic. Should be a good place to follow extratropical storms.
Ireland Met Office

Can you give a link to the satellite view you mention? I only see full disk or close to Eire.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Look at the size of this new invest in the West Pacific:



Omg is huge maybe if Cariboy want water he needs to go to the phillippines they suffer flooding almost all years sadly.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4212
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I laugh at the Caribbean-ers for complaining about their drought that has lasted a.......wait for it....whopping two weeks!

The Central USA has been in a horrible drought since the beginning of last year. Try that on for size.

Quite true. Until we in Alabama were dumped on pre-90L, we have been in moderate to severe drought for over a year. Even the storms that hit in central AL didn't make it to SE AL. The corn crop died over a month ago and is being plowed under. Cotton looks like it might give 50% of normal yield. Soybeans may have a chance to come back to a 75% normal yield. Even the peanut crop is in trouble. This drought has persisted over much of the southeast and midwest sections of the country this year at least, and has huge implications for things like animal feed, plastic production, and ethanol production. Meaning no disrepect to our Caribbean neighbors, I don't think there are many crops grown there we can't live without. There are lots of crops grown in the CONUS that you really can't live without.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


With El Nino around and being a modoki one will help this 2012-2013 winter season be a more colder one than last season.


Not an el nino yet.

"However, there are ongoing signs of a possibly imminent transition towards El Niño in the atmosphere as well as the ocean."

See what the update tomorrow says. "Possibly imminent" is a nice turn of phrase. Sort of like "maybe definite".
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Finally some cool weather coming for a while.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I laugh at the Caribbean-ers for complaining about their drought that has lasted a.......wait for it....whopping two weeks!

The Central USA has been in a horrible drought since the beginning of last year. Try that on for size.

Some of them always want a hurricane, people are still suffering from past storms this year. The US has been in a major a hurricane drought for 7-8 years officially.


Quoting CybrTeddy:
Why I love hurricane season.



2 good looking Tropical cyclones, priceless.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
150. VR46L
Quoting sar2401:

Ireland has a pretty good met site with satellie views that cover te whole N. Atlantic. Should be a good place to follow extratropical storms.
Ireland Met Office


Lol I didnt even think of that one !!! Should have been the first ..
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I do wish they mentioned more often when incoming storms were remnants of tropical systems. Though reckon they do it more in Ireland then the UK?! I need a good sat animation page on bookmark, that shows here better, in relation to the Atlantic, so can see the continuous flow I think. Probably going too far north to affect N. Wales...but it's nearly always rainy and/or windy here anyway so doesn't matter too much LOL

Ireland has a pretty good met site with satellie views that cover te whole N. Atlantic. Should be a good place to follow extratropical storms.
Ireland Met Office
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Considered 91L is weak.. WTF it is supposed to track north! Damn



chill out
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Look at the size of this new invest in the West Pacific:



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146. VR46L
Quoting taistelutipu:


I ususally use this one for sat animations: Eurometeo.com. I'm living in N'Wales and I'm interested in the tracks of post-tropical systems. We tend to be brushed by them every now and then and get bucket loads of rain from them and some wind. The last one that was mentioned in the news was Tropical Storm Grace in 2009. BBC had a weather blog titled 'rain will fall from grace' (nice pun) on her. I remember her, the air was warmer than usual at this time of the year.

Often, however, the brunt of them misses us as they gain latitude too quickly and have a go at Northern Scotland and the islands to the North instead, Shetland and Orkneys.


Thanks I bookmarked the site
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Quoting CaribBoy:


i MEANT BORING FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN :(

I hate to break it to you, but chances are the season's over for you guys... Anything else that comes off Africa should stay north of you with the current pattern in place, and then when Caribbean season starts cranking everything will stay W of you... We know you need the rain but there's no real use complaining about it.
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Why I love hurricane season.


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I laugh at the Caribbean-ers for complaining about their drought that has lasted a.......wait for it....whopping two weeks!

The Central USA has been in a horrible drought since the beginning of last year. Try that on for size.
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I do wish they mentioned more often when incoming storms were remnants of tropical systems. Though reckon they do it more in Ireland then the UK?! I need a good sat animation page on bookmark, that shows here better, in relation to the Atlantic, so can see the continuous flow I think. Probably going too far north to affect N. Wales...but it's nearly always rainy and/or windy here anyway so doesn't matter too much LOL


I ususally use this one for sat animations: Eurometeo.com. I'm living in N'Wales and I'm interested in the tracks of post-tropical systems. We tend to be brushed by them every now and then and get bucket loads of rain from them and some wind. The last one that was mentioned in the news was Tropical Storm Grace in 2009. BBC had a weather blog titled 'rain will fall from grace' (nice pun) on her. I remember her, the air was warmer than usual at this time of the year.

Often, however, the brunt of them misses us as they gain latitude too quickly and have a go at Northern Scotland and the islands to the North instead, Shetland and Orkneys.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yep, it's been anomalously dry since August 28th. The plants need their water and I need clouds to freshen up the day. :\


Yup with no rain our beautiful islands would be like deserts
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6104
Quoting RTSplayer:


Dude please.

Isaac killed several people, and may top 10 billion by the time everything is really added up.


i MEANT BORING FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN :(
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6104
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


If I lived on one of the mountainous Leeward Islands, it would have to be on the windward (wet) side of the island. Like Hilo, rather than Kona, on Hawaii. I find sunny weather boring, and when friends and I are up for a beach day, it is just a short drive away.

I'll bet Leslie's winds did not even faze Bermuda, as they seem to get gale force conditions several times annually.

As for the 2012 hurricane season, I suspect that the possibility of a Cape Verde storm affecting the US has come to a close for the year. Our main threats will either be from a fairly lopsided tropical storm/weak hurricane from the Gulf, or (the most significant threat) a hurricane originating from the Western Caribbean.


I agree that we are done with the CV Hurricanes affecting CONUS for this year.
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137. VR46L
Quoting CaribBoy:


Considered 91L is weak.. WTF it is supposed to track north! Damn


Your welcome to it ... By friday I think a little of every storm this year, because I believe a touch of Isaac is in that front, except Ernesto will have touched in a little way my country ...
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Quoting zicoille:
When will we get rain (or heavy rain) in the leewards islands. It's boring, sun, sun, sun always sun...


If I lived on one of the mountainous Leeward Islands, it would have to be on the windward (wet) side of the island. Like Hilo, rather than Kona, on Hawaii. I find sunny weather boring, and when friends and I are up for a beach day, it is just a short drive away.

I'll bet Leslie's winds did not even faze Bermuda, as they seem to get gale force conditions several times annually.

As for the 2012 hurricane season, I suspect that the possibility of a Cape Verde storm affecting the US has come to a close for the year. Our main threats will either be from a fairly lopsided tropical storm/weak hurricane from the Gulf, or (the most significant threat) a hurricane originating from the Western Caribbean.
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Leslie and Michael:

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Quoting CaribBoy:
Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

OMFG THAT'S CRAZY HOW 2012 IS BORING


Dude please.

Isaac killed several people, and may top 10 billion by the time everything is really added up.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I just looked at ADT for Michael, whoa.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.4mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.9 4.9



It's probably over-estimating intensity.

I'd say add back 3 to 7mb, but Gordon was around 110mph at this latitude, so it's not impossible.

Most recent frame only has a minimum cloud temperature of about -58C.

I think it should still be at least 5 to 10mph weaker than Gordon for forecasting purposes, based on the cloud tops on color enhanced IR, but I'm not the professional.




It's not impossible for a hurricane to be a major or "border-line major" with these temps, but it's unlikely given the bad upper level setup right now. I think this is worst than Gordon's because at least Gordon had what amounted to half of an anti-cyclone. Right now Michael is really screwed up, and I'm surprised it's remained this strong.
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132. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:


I want PLENTY OF RAIN.. and a little winds too (60MPH is fine lol).

Wait! Lol, you are also complaining about the drought in the NE Caribbean ^^


Yep, it's been anomalously dry since August 28th. The plants need their water and I need clouds to freshen up the day. :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8642
JLPR2, more of the same for most of this week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SUN SEP 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TUE. TUTT LOW
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MOVE OVER PR WED NIGHT. MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY TOMORROW BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL
IN RESPONSE TO RETROGRESSING TUTT. MODELS SHOW TUTT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WED AND THU YIELDING MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
MAINLY SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. NORTHERN
HALF OF THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL PERHAPS ON
THU WHEN STEERING WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AGAIN FRI WITH A RETURN TO THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MONTH.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE OFFSHORE AND 1-3 FT NEARSHORE GENERATED BY LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 92 78 89 / 0 10 0 10
STT 80 88 80 88 / 0 0 0 10
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130. VR46L
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I do wish they mentioned more often when incoming storms were remnants of tropical systems. Though reckon they do it more in Ireland then the UK?! I need a good sat animation page on bookmark, that shows here better, in relation to the Atlantic, so can see the continuous flow I think. Probably going too far north to affect N. Wales...but it's nearly always rainy and/or windy here anyway so doesn't matter too much LOL


I use these two site for most of my Atlantic Imagery its not great but anything is better than nothing

Link

and
actually the NHC site

Link




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Quoting yonzabam:



Boring drizzly rain here in the UK. Wettest summer for over a century.


Sun all the time is boring...rain/clouds all the time is boring...I do like variety in my weather. I prefer it here over So. California though, as a bit more variety, and would rather the norm be rain over sun all the time LOL
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Quoting Tazmanian:



whats next ?





you are cold :)

but I'm laughin'
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After spending weeks double-checking their hardware and trying to debug their code, Lorenz and his team discovered that their data weren’t exactly the same. The numbers had been rounded off in the third decimal place. Instead of having the barometric pressure in one corner of their grid read 29.5168, for example, it might instead read 29.517. This couldn’t make that much of a difference, could it? Actually, Lorenz realized, it could, and he devoted the rest of his career to studying strange behaviors like these by developing a branch of mathematics called chaos theory, the most basic tenet of which is described in the title of his breakthrough 1972 paper, “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?” In other words, a small change in initial conditions can produce a large and unexpected divergence in outcomes.


Yup, Chaos Theory.

Ideally, you'd save all decimals to as many places as possible in real world data, and 88 places (twice the decimal order of Planck length, but certainly at least twice the decimal order of the highest order data input,) for internally generated data during each step of calculations in order to achieve the least level of uncertainty.

Most of the input data we have is only good to 1 to 3 decimal places, and for home stations it's usually limited to 1 or 2 decimal places.
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Looks like 7 years in a row without a major hurricane hitting the United States.A record i believe,and to think in 2005 everyone said storms would be bigger and the United States coastline would be destroyed by these cat 6 storms.Do not believe everything you read from so called experts!More often they are wrong.Have a blessed day.
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Quoting JLPR2:
91L's 850mb vort reflection is split in two with the mid level circulation in between those two.



Very disorganized.


I hope the south part to win
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Knitting class

lol


I can teach the crocheting class!
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Quoting JLPR2:


Whoa... you want rain or winds? XD

I'm hoping October brings an Emily (2011) type of storm, of rain with little to no wind.


I want PLENTY OF RAIN.. and a little winds too (60MPH is fine lol).

Wait! Lol, you are also complaining about the drought in the NE Caribbean ^^
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6104
Quoting VR46L:


I aint looking forward to it either but I think the west coast of Scotland will be worse off than I will be on the NW coast of Ireland . lots of weather and conditions coming together at the one time The big front coming off the US coast .. the two Extropial canes and not to mention the Jet stream to send it North East . I am concerned how little talk there is yet this side of the Atlantic ... I think its due Friday /Saturday sigh



I do wish they mentioned more often when incoming storms were remnants of tropical systems. Though reckon they do it more in Ireland then the UK?! I need a good sat animation page on bookmark, that shows here better, in relation to the Atlantic, so can see the continuous flow I think. Probably going too far north to affect N. Wales...but it's nearly always rainy and/or windy here anyway so doesn't matter too much LOL
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121. JLPR2
91L's 850mb vort reflection is split in two with the mid level circulation in between those two.



Very disorganized.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8642
Quoting Grothar:


You've never been on here during Thanksgiving.?


Nah... I've not dipped my toes into the comments section here in quite some time. Guess I ought to visit more often, huh? lol

Taz! I recognize that fellow!
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I hate EL NINO as it always bring boring weather in the MDR
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6104
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC ANIM IR IMAGE

9 MINS OLD
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117. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:


I want it to pull an OMAR like storm


Whoa... you want rain or winds? XD

I'm hoping October brings an Emily (2011) type of storm, plenty of rain with little to no wind.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8642
Dead boring for sure!! The weather is gorgeous today though I would love an interesting system to come my way.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6104

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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