Leslie brushing Bermuda, heading for Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2012

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It's a wet, windy day on Bermuda today, where Tropical Storm Leslie is bringing high winds and heavy rain as the storm's core passes 120 miles (200 km) east of the island. At the Saint David's weather station on the east end of the island, Leslie brought sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 54 mph, at 12:30 pm AST today. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is over the island, and these rains will continue through most of the afternoon, and the Bermuda airport is closed until 4 pm AST. Satellite loops show that Leslie is a large storm with a huge eye 60 miles (100 km) in diameter, but the storm does not have an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar, taken at 12:43 AST.

Forecast for Leslie
As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become a Category 1 hurricane. The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 36% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Tuesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds are expected to extend outward from its center 160 miles to its northwest on Tuesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pound the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Leslie as seen by NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:20 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 60 mph. Bermuda is the yellow triangle at the left of the image. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 1
Hurricane Michael has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters east of Newfoundland in 3 - 4 days.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 9:40 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 91L) is 250 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The disturbance is large with plenty of spin, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to dry air. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

She's trying. Compared to earlier, she looks good.

Yes he is, with her how knows what she can do.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7890
Good evening all! Another rough day at the office. All this talk about cooler weather is nice. Does anyone know about when when the cold weather will be in Lake Worth, Fl...between 10th Ave. North and Forest Hill Blvd....behind the Publix?
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Thanks for all the links from everyone! Will have to look through them. I thought maybe Ireland might keep a better eye on them.

I'm right in the rain zone too where I'm at, directly east of Moel Siabod in the hills, and it's like wringing the clouds like a sponge most the time! Will look at the weather webcams and like Llandudno will be fine, Valley fine...and then here grey and/or raining still LOL Knew I should have just moved to Anglesey instead of the hills! But it is so lovely up here otherwise!


I know the area quite well. I'm into fellrunning and I actually don't mind the rain when I'm running there. I love Snowdonia. As for choosing a place where to live, I think I'd lean towards a drier place like Anglesey. Right now I'm between both at the Menai Straights.

There's quite some rain coming our way, currently west of Ireland, but probably knocking on our door by noon tomorrow.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

She wants to, but can't really ramp up. Leslie is a very weird storm.

She's trying. Compared to earlier, she looks good.
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210. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I miss the old Atlantic. The old Atlantic that supported monster hurricanes tracking across the basin just to recurve between the East Coast and Bermuda not affect anybody but Canada as extratropical cyclones, giving them rain.



They don't make them like they used to anymore ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
ELEVATED WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT
ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS FOR GULF...BAY...AND INLAND WATERS TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS MAY REACH CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA
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we sure do not get many of these alerts out there..........BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
244 PM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
EAST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 545 PM PDT

* AT 232 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A STORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PERRIS AND
LAKE ELSINORE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Donut.

She wants to, but can't really ramp up. Leslie is a very weird storm.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7890

Donut.
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Bappit, that is an awesome image, thanks for posting it. Never seem anything quite like it.
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164 RTSplayer Kinda ridiculous how good the eye of Michael looks...Really must be hybridizing now

Why would it be becoming more SubTropical? It's still south of CapeHatteras's latitude.
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203. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS from a few days ago showed it splitting and making two storms.


Yes, I remember that. Hmm...

That would be interesting.
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Quoting srqthymesage:
And your point is...??


Point? What point? I don't understand. I am just asking a question not making a point.
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#186 The abstract here mentions that:

"A preliminary assessment shows that cross swell, dominant in large regions of hurricanes, allows the roughness under high wind conditions to increase considerably before it reduces to the same low values."

Here's a weird picture of cross swells.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I miss the old Atlantic. The old Atlantic that supported monster hurricanes tracking across the basin just to recurve between the East Coast and Bermuda not affect anybody but Canada as extratropical cyclones, giving them rain.


I know what you mean, that Atlantic was great.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7890
Quoting CaribBoy:


I hope it stays weak.

It's still going to stay well north of the islands if it stays weak, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not good for 91L.

09/1745 UTC 15.5N 32.5W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic

09/1200 UTC 15.0N 27.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic


I hope it stays weak.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Isn't that Igor from 2010? It looks like it

Yes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52378
I miss the old Atlantic. The old Atlantic that supported monster hurricanes tracking across the basin just to recurve between the East Coast and Bermuda not affect anybody but Canada as extratropical cyclones, giving them rain.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting flcanes:

where are you going
not going any where what do you mean
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52378
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not good for 91L.

09/1745 UTC 15.5N 32.5W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic

09/1200 UTC 15.0N 27.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

Its not looking too good either, development is iffy.

Anyway Michael is still looking good and fun to track.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7890
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Sunday 9 September 2012
Condition: Light Rainshower
Pressure: 29.94 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 63.9°F
Dewpoint: 48.2°F
Humidity: 57 %
Wind: NNW 16 gust 25 mph

where are you going
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Sunday 9 September 2012
Condition: Light Rainshower
Pressure: 29.94 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 63.9°F
Dewpoint: 48.2°F
Humidity: 57 %
Wind: NNW 16 gust 25 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52378
Quoting icmoore:


I'm the opposite I need the sun and I love hot, sunny days more than any other kind. No winter would be great with a few rain days thrown in.
I got a whopping .10" of rain from the cold front but cloudy all day, yuck. Storms were coming in from the Gulf north and south of Madeira Beach. Tarpon Springs got trained on a lot today.


Most people here I know think I'm mad! LOL I grew up in Palm Springs, be like 110', 115'...lows in the 90's, if it got down past 100' at night LOL And I can hardly take 75' now! LOL it does get muggy here, and I like humidity even less, so 75' and humid is just awful to me! My daughter's even worse, she really hates it hot or sunny at all. Doing landscape photography, I do need the sunny days, just prefer them in autumn and winter! LOL
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 828
just a note regarding my blog page

Beginning sept 15 i will begin the format change from tropical weather to fall/winter 2012/2013
a full winter blog will be in place by oct 15 with a downsized tropical section till the end of the atlantic season nov 30 2012.

...KOTG
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52378
Not good for 91L.

09/1745 UTC 15.5N 32.5W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic

09/1200 UTC 15.0N 27.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Slippery When Windy

As winds kick up, the ocean sprouts whitecaps and spews streams of spray. Past research has hinted that the ocean's aerodynamic roughness, or wind resistance, reaches a plateau in strong hurricanes. But a new study suggests otherwise: At extremely high wind speeds, blowing spray and foam create a sort of veneer that lets air glide across the waves almost without friction - an unexpected phenomenon that needs to be included in computer models of hurricanes, scientists say.

The new study includes analyses of wind data gathered from instruments that "hurricane hunter" aircraft dropped into storms between 1998 and 2005, as well as films of the ocean surface taken during low-altitude flights in hurricanes from 1966 through 1980. More than one-third of the data hasn't been published before, and much of it couldn't be collected today because current safety rules ban flights in such perilous conditions, says Leo Holthuijsen, an oceanographer at the Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.
...
By the time wind speeds reached 80 meters per second (288 km/hr, a Category 5-strength hurricane), the coefficient of drag had plummeted to near zero, the researchers reported last week in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. At wind speeds like those, waves in the open ocean typically measure between 20 and 30 meters high. In such conditions, Holthuijsen says, "troughs between waves are like holes in the sea, and the wind just jumps over them."

The drop in drag coefficient at high wind speeds could have profound effects. For one thing, when the surface becomes aerodynamically smooth, the wind can't transfer much momentum to the water, so waves may not grow as high as current models predict, Holthuijsen says. He and his colleagues are fine-tuning their models to see what effect super-strong winds might have on wave height and storm surge.

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2012/09/sli ppery-when-windy.html?ref=hp


Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
Quoting sar2401:

Ireland has a pretty good met site with satellie views that cover te whole N. Atlantic. Should be a good place to follow extratropical storms.
Ireland Met Office
Quoting taistelutipu:


I ususally use this one for sat animations: Eurometeo.com. I'm living in N'Wales and I'm interested in the tracks of post-tropical systems. We tend to be brushed by them every now and then and get bucket loads of rain from them and some wind. The last one that was mentioned in the news was Tropical Storm Grace in 2009. BBC had a weather blog titled 'rain will fall from grace' (nice pun) on her. I remember her, the air was warmer than usual at this time of the year.

Often, however, the brunt of them misses us as they gain latitude too quickly and have a go at Northern Scotland and the islands to the North instead, Shetland and Orkneys.


Thanks for all the links from everyone! Will have to look through them. I thought maybe Ireland might keep a better eye on them.

I'm right in the rain zone too where I'm at, directly east of Moel Siabod in the hills, and it's like wringing the clouds like a sponge most the time! Will look at the weather webcams and like Llandudno will be fine, Valley fine...and then here grey and/or raining still LOL Knew I should have just moved to Anglesey instead of the hills! But it is so lovely up here otherwise!
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 828
colder weather building over far northern north america over the next ten days

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52378
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What is going on with Septembers turning out to be colder and have stronger troughs than usual. Seems this has been the trend over about the past decade or so. Will this be a new normal for Septembers???
Member Since: September 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23749
It almost looks like Leslie is trying to build a giant eyewall. This storm is weird...
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what happen to our invest



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52378
Quoting sar2401:

Our low was 63, nowhere near the record low of 55 set, ironically, on this date in 2011. The weather is very nice right now. I just don't see the same thing happening 8-14 days out.


models have an even stronger cold front towards the 20th!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

ALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.5 AT
18Z...SINCE THEN THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT AND THE
BANDING HAS BECOME LESS SOLID. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
50 KT. LESLIE CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...WHICH
SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. BOTH THE TROPICAL AND
GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT LESLIE WILL BE AT OR AT LEAST NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON ITS APPROACH TO NEWFOUNDLAND. AFTER 36
HOURS...SSTS COOL AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY...BUT
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
BASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF FIELDS...LESLIE WILL BE MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ABOUT THE TIME IT REACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/12. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-4
DAYS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN
THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 33.4N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 35.1N 61.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 38.5N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 44.1N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 51.0N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z 60.0N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 63.5N 9.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
The models have one heck of a cold front by the end of next week for the eastern 2/3!

Rainy Seasons been nice and sweet for us in Orlando. But once the Autumnal Equinox sets in this year(Sepember 21st), it's adios emigos(oh please oh please continue the trend)!!!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS from a few days ago showed it splitting and making two storms.
Can that be possible? wouldn`t they be very close together to develop?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't know...Hammond, LA station allegedly broke the previous record low for this morning by about 2f, which was a real shocker to me.

Our low was 63, nowhere near the record low of 55 set, ironically, on this date in 2011. The weather is very nice right now. I just don't see the same thing happening 8-14 days out.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9943

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

THE MIXING EVENT ACTIVE WITHIN THE INNER CORE OF MICHAEL APPEARS TO
BE NEAR COMPLETION....AND A TRANSFORMATION HAS TAKEN PLACE. THE EYE
OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND CLOUD- FILLED SINCE THIS
MORNING...WITH ITS DIAMETER MEASURING 30 N MI AFTER BEING AROUND 10
N MI ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NO LONGER
SYMMETRIC...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AT 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE ADT CI
VALUE IS 5.2. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH A BLEND OF THESE DATA.

MICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING DUE WEST SINCE THIS MORNING...AND HAS
EVEN WOBBLED A BIT SOUTH OF WEST IN RECENT HOURS. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE...A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE...IS 270/04. SOUTH OF A
SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE...MICHAEL SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AROUND THAT TIME
AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED IN 36-72 HOURS...AS THE SAME SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING
LESLIE TO RECURVE APPROACHES MICHAEL. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWING
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND TO THE RIGHT AT 72 HOURS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL.

MICHAEL SHOULD LEAVE THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
LESLIE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY OVER A NARROW LAYER
IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...AND MICHAEL WILL BE MOVING OVER ONLY
GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST
BY 48 HOURS HOURS ONCE MICHAEL ENCOUNTERS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 33.6N 43.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 33.6N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 34.2N 46.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 36.4N 47.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 39.9N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 47.2N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
Quoting JLPR2:
91L's 850mb vort reflection is split in two with the mid level circulation in between those two.



Very disorganized.

The GFS from a few days ago showed it splitting and making two storms.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like the models want to bring it all the way to Norway. They already had two hurricane like storms last year.


Not to worry, Gro. Brushes or landfalls in Greenland or Iceland should keep you safe. :) This is really pretty incredible to have extratropical lows/hurricanes affecting areas this far north two years in a row.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9943

9Sept.3:05pmGMT: TS.Leslie had passed 133miles(214kilometres)East of Bermuda
The previous mapping of TS.Leslie
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Doesn't look like Leslie will come within Fujiwhara-distance (~900miles or ~1450kilometres) of Michael: Leslie's been moving too fast, and Michael's been moving too slow.
But they aren't so far apart that future interaction is impossible, yet. And because a Fujiwhara would affect both storms' paths...
Derived from the NHC's 9Sept12pmGMT ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie and for HurricaneMichael
BHB-BarHarbor :: CWRW-FourchuHead :: YYT-St.John's :: YMH-Mary'sHarbour
All times in GMT
8Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been 1238miles(1992kilometres)West of H.Michael
9Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been1222miles(1966kilometres)West of H.Michael
9Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been 1197miles(1926kilometres)West of H.Michael
9Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been 1151miles(1853kilometres)West of H.Michael
9Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie was 1090miles(1754kilometres)West of H.Michael

A closure rate of 148miles(238kilometres) per day isn't sufficient to close the gap before the distance between the two starts increasing again. But if Leslie slows down while Michael speeds up...

Copy&paste bda, bhb, cwrw, yyt, 51.535n55.445w, ymh, 32.8n42.1w-29.0n62.5w, 33.3n42.3w-29.7n62.6w, 33.6n42.5w-30.5n62.6w, 33.7n42.9w-31.5n62.5w, 33.7n43.5w-32.7n62.3w into the GreatCircleMapper
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Quoting sar2401:

Boy, NOAA must seeing something I don't. I see nothing on the horizon in 8-14 days that should give Alabama a 60%-70% probability of lower than normal temperatures. I'll take it we can get it, but it looks like we will be getting our usual deep moisture flow back by Thursday or so, with highs once again back in the 90's and lows around 70. Normal high is 89 and low is 69, and we've been above normal since March.


I don't know...Hammond, LA station allegedly broke the previous record low for this morning by about 2f, which was a real shocker to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Who dat? it aint the saints..The redskins are taking names in NO..
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Boy, NOAA must seeing something I don't. I see nothing on the horizon in 8-14 days that should give Alabama a 60%-70% probability of lower than normal temperatures. I'll take it we can get it, but it looks like we will be getting our usual deep moisture flow back by Thursday or so, with highs once again back in the 90's and lows around 70. Normal high is 89 and low is 69, and we've been above normal since March.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9943
For anyone interested, here's the UK Met Office Satellite Imagery.
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Kinda ridiculous how good the eye of Michael looks on this image, in spite of the convection being relatively weak.

Really must be hybridizing now. Still very powerful and impressive storm though.




It also took a hard SW turn in the past several frames.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.