Leslie brushing Bermuda, heading for Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2012

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It's a wet, windy day on Bermuda today, where Tropical Storm Leslie is bringing high winds and heavy rain as the storm's core passes 120 miles (200 km) east of the island. At the Saint David's weather station on the east end of the island, Leslie brought sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 54 mph, at 12:30 pm AST today. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is over the island, and these rains will continue through most of the afternoon, and the Bermuda airport is closed until 4 pm AST. Satellite loops show that Leslie is a large storm with a huge eye 60 miles (100 km) in diameter, but the storm does not have an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar, taken at 12:43 AST.

Forecast for Leslie
As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become a Category 1 hurricane. The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 36% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Tuesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds are expected to extend outward from its center 160 miles to its northwest on Tuesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pound the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Leslie as seen by NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:20 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 60 mph. Bermuda is the yellow triangle at the left of the image. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 1
Hurricane Michael has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters east of Newfoundland in 3 - 4 days.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 9:40 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 91L) is 250 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The disturbance is large with plenty of spin, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to dry air. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Trivia ?....Ivan had 73 Discussions issued for him from depression to his demise. Has any other Atlantic system had more Discussions issued?
Ginger had 111, but that was back in 1971. A hurricane from 1938 would have had 112, and the longest ever, Hurricane/Typhoon John, had 120 advisories.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
They will most likely form in the caribbean and gulf.I expect to see some classic trough split action in both areas.Also the east coast could see some trough split action.

This may be the time all the homegrown development happends.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting Stormchaser121:

what do you think will happen after the cape verde season?? Where will the storms form now?
They will most likely form in the caribbean and gulf.I expect to see some classic trough split action in both areas.Also the east coast could see some trough split action.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17164
Quoting washingtonian115:
'Nother one about to come off the coast.I think we'll see one more wave develop after this one and we're finished with the cape verde season.We had a good run though.

what do you think will happen after the cape verde season?? Where will the storms form now?
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting wxchaser97:
91L is up to 50%
'Nother one about to come off the coast.I think we'll see one more wave develop after this one and we're finished with the cape verde season.We had a good run though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17164
90E up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14414
91L is up to 50%
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Leslie your still ugly..Nice coverage of TCHP though.It's been the lowest I've seen in the gulf these last few years.All of it is bundled up in the western gulf.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17164
When is the mjo supposed to arrive in the Caribbean and if it ever does how are the trade winds now. I remember early on they were rather strong hampering development
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
AND ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 990 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE...DRY
AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32355
254. 7544
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Could this be something??


agree next aoi ? we need to look closer to home cause the long trackers all see to be recurving out to sea so that a suspect area imo and the gulf
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
253. JLPR2
Quoting wxchaser97:
Obviously we need another TCHP map so here we go.


LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
252. auburn (Mod)
Quoting zoomiami:
I don't think I can remember a day with so few posts. Just went out to run an errand, 7:15 and its still 89 outside.

Would like some of the cool weather this way.


Been nice here in Alabama today..going down to 59 tonight..gonna sleep with the doors and windows open!
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Obviously we need another TCHP map so here we go.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
I don't think I can remember a day with so few posts. Just went out to run an errand, 7:15 and its still 89 outside.

Would like some of the cool weather this way.
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248. JLPR2
Quoting mcluvincane:


Yes, but it doesn't look as if the Caribbean will have much to work with as far as tropical waves not entering. Seems all the waves either develop and go out to sea or waves just simply peter out


Slightly worried at what a late season storm could manage in this area.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting JLPR2:
All of these days of clear skies have really warmed up the waters in my area.
I even remember a 79F in one of these reading a little while back and now...

Fajardo, PR 84.0F
Aquadilla, PR 84.9F
San Juan, PR 89.1F
Mayaguez, PR 88.0F
Esperanza, PR 87.1F
Isabel Segunda, Vieques, PR 81.0F

The closest one to me is San Juan which is almost at 90F. Impressive, I don't think I had seen it that high.



A storm entering the Caribbean would have the fuel to become a monster.

TCHP has recently shot up in the NW Caribbean after easing for a bit.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32355
246. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You are right on that. The Caribbean is baking at this time.Look at the TCHP.



Yes and even more impressive when compared with how it looked in late August.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting JLPR2:
All of these days of clear skies have really warmed up the waters in my area.
I even remember a 79F in one of these reading a little while back and now...

Fajardo, PR 84.0F
Aquadilla, PR 84.9F
San Juan, PR 89.1F
Mayaguez, PR 88.0F
Esperanza, PR 87.1F
Isabel Segunda, Vieques, PR 81.0F

The closest one to me is San Juan which is almost at 90F. Impressive, I don't think I had seen it that high.



A storm entering the Caribbean would have the fuel to become a monster.

Well instability is lacking but everything else is good for formation and strengthening.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Quoting JLPR2:
All of these days of clear skies have really warmed up the waters in my area.
I even remember a 79F in one of these reading a little while back and now...

Fajardo, PR 84.0F
Aquadilla, PR 84.9F
San Juan, PR 89.1F
Mayaguez, PR 88.0F
Esperanza, PR 87.1F
Isabel Segunda, Vieques, PR 81.0F

The closest one to me is San Juan which is almost at 90F. Impressive, I don't think I had seen it that high.



A storm entering the Caribbean would have the fuel to become a monster.


Yes, but it doesn't look as if the Caribbean will have much to work with as far as tropical waves not entering. Seems all the waves either develop and go out to sea or waves just simply peter out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
All of these days of clear skies have really warmed up the waters in my area.
I even remember a 79F in one of these reading a little while back and now...

Fajardo, PR 84.0F
Aquadilla, PR 84.9F
San Juan, PR 89.1F
Mayaguez, PR 88.0F
Esperanza, PR 87.1F
Isabel Segunda, Vieques, PR 81.0F

The closest one to me is San Juan which is almost at 90F. Impressive, I don't think I had seen it that high.



A storm entering the Caribbean would have the fuel to become a monster.


You are right on that. The Caribbean is baking at this time.Look at the TCHP.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14414
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It appears Leslie is finally organizing.


Finally got convection on all sides.
A side note I'm getting my PWS hooked up to WU right now.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952

Could this be something??
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
240. JLPR2
All of these days of clear skies have really warmed up the waters in my area.
I even remember a 79F in one of these reading a little while back and now...

Fajardo, PR 84.0F
Aquadilla, PR 84.9F
San Juan, PR 89.1F
Mayaguez, PR 88.0F
Esperanza, PR 87.1F
Isabel Segunda, Vieques, PR 81.0F

The closest one to me is San Juan which is almost at 90F. Impressive, I don't think I had seen it that high.



A storm entering the Caribbean would have the fuel to become a monster.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
It appears Leslie is finally organizing.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32355
237...Kyle had 89 issued for him.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11324
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Trivia ?....Ivan had 73 Discussions issued for him from depression to his demise. Has any other Atlantic system had more Discussions issued?


Yeah.

I don't know exactly how long NOAA and NHC has done the 6 hour updates and discussions, nor the 3 hour intermediates, but Ivan is not in the top 10 on duration, and a few other storms are in the top ten, and this is apparently "As a hurricane".


Greatest duration †
Sources: NOAA,[2][3][4]
Duration
(days) Name Date
28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
22 Hurricane Joan-Miriam‡ October 1988
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.5 Storm 4 September 1926
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia‡ September 1971

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting aspectre:
164 RTSplayer Kinda ridiculous how good the eye of Michael looks...Really must be hybridizing now

Why would it be becoming more SubTropical? It's still south of CapeHatteras's latitude.


Look at the cloud tops.

It's got nothing now. It's even worse now than several hours ago.



Shear is killing the outflow on the northwest side now, because it doesn't have any kind of AC above it.

There is a ridge in the mean steering layer maps which might push Michael more SW and get it over slightly warmer water, but it's about to run out of time anyway, since it's getting closer to both Leslie and the front. Their outflow will choke one another off, well, what little they have now anyway.
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The big picture...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11324
Trivia ?....Ivan had 73 Discussions issued for him from depression to his demise. Has any other Atlantic system had more Discussions issued?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11324
I wonder whats gonna happen in the gulf soon...


Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Obviously.


Obviously a bust season, especially with multiple landfalling TS's and hurricanes. Its also funny that Cariboy plused it even though he said the season is over. Also obviously over since there is 3 months left.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Quoting bappit:
#186 The abstract here mentions that:

"A preliminary assessment shows that cross swell, dominant in large regions of hurricanes, allows the roughness under high wind conditions to increase considerably before it reduces to the same low values."

Here's a weird picture of cross swells.



Bet it wouldn't be neat to be in a boat in that.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Good evening all! Another rough day at the office. All this talk about cooler weather is nice. Does anyone know about when when the cold weather will be in Lake Worth, Fl...between 10th Ave. North and Forest Hill Blvd....behind the Publix?


Good evening :))) Let us consult with Gro on the precise timing.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


lol I love your irony

,
Yeah, they can pull that chart as much as they want, the Atlantic season is pretty much done, (land threats anyhow)
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Season is over


That's what I heard back in October of 2005 and some of us know all to well what happened towards the end of that month..... Let's see now... begins with a W and ends with an A
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Quoting taistelutipu:


I know the area quite well. I'm into fellrunning and I actually don't mind the rain when I'm running there.

Had to check out what fell running is. Sounds like a good way to break a leg! I tried orienteering a long time ago, but no hills around.
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Quoting SLU:


basically downhill from here onwards huh?


yes and still no rain
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Obviously.



lol I love your irony
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re 201. bappit. Thanks for posting the picture. wow, I didn't know that it was possible for waves to criss cross as regular as that. It looks like a checkerboard. Awesome display of the forces of nature.
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222. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:
Season is over


basically downhill from here onwards huh?
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TA15, I just use the minus sign and ignore.

Tonight's supposed to be around 58 before the night temps start going back up. I'm going to enjoy it all I can, a hint of fall to come.
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Quoting 12george1:

Oh, I am near 10th and Congress Ave


Howdy neighbor!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11324
ATCF finnally updates the 18z Best Track for 91L.

AL, 91, 2012090918, , BEST, 0, 154N, 314W, 25, 1008, LO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14414
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Good evening all! Another rough day at the office. All this talk about cooler weather is nice. Does anyone know about when when the cold weather will be in Lake Worth, Fl...between 10th Ave. North and Forest Hill Blvd....behind the Publix?

Oh, I am near 10th and Congress Ave
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Season is over

Obviously.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32355
OFF TOPIC
SF Kicker David Akers ties NFL Record with 63 Yard Field Goal Kick, and his reaction is priceless

Link
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Season is over
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

She's trying. Compared to earlier, she looks good.

Yes he is, with her how knows what she can do.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.