Leslie brushing Bermuda, heading for Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2012

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It's a wet, windy day on Bermuda today, where Tropical Storm Leslie is bringing high winds and heavy rain as the storm's core passes 120 miles (200 km) east of the island. At the Saint David's weather station on the east end of the island, Leslie brought sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 54 mph, at 12:30 pm AST today. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is over the island, and these rains will continue through most of the afternoon, and the Bermuda airport is closed until 4 pm AST. Satellite loops show that Leslie is a large storm with a huge eye 60 miles (100 km) in diameter, but the storm does not have an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar, taken at 12:43 AST.

Forecast for Leslie
As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become a Category 1 hurricane. The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 36% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Tuesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds are expected to extend outward from its center 160 miles to its northwest on Tuesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pound the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Leslie as seen by NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:20 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 60 mph. Bermuda is the yellow triangle at the left of the image. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 1
Hurricane Michael has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters east of Newfoundland in 3 - 4 days.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 9:40 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 91L) is 250 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The disturbance is large with plenty of spin, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to dry air. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Allan012:


Now that we got your date of birth out of the way. Lets move on to your employment history.

Dang...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32262
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh I'm sorry, I did not realize this wasn't a real invest.



FISHES ARE NOT REAL INVEST! ;)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229
mikey is about to bite the dust

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Quoting HurrAndrew:


Technically the best it could be is 17-9-3.

We have one major as part of 7 hurricanes, to add 2 more majors means 2 more hurricanes.


Sorry, I was just giving a playoff call.
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Got Michael, but missed 91L
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354.

You don't know how much I'm laughing. ;)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maybe Code Red at 2am EDT.


There is a chance of that happening, I say 50/50 staying at 50% or going to code red.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting Grothar:
17-8-3

Aw, you just took the high end numbers from the NOAA August 9 forecast. I see what you're up to. :)
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Quoting Grothar:
17-8-3


Technically the best it could be is 17-9-3.

We have one major as part of 7 hurricanes, to add 2 more majors means 2 more hurricanes.
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Stu Blog
Link
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Quoting SLU:


On June 1st, if someone suggested that by September 10th we'd have 13-7-1 with TS Nadine about to develop they'd be ridiculed on the blog for such an outrageous suggestion.

Fair to say this season far exceeded everyone's expectations and even if we don't get to see another Invest for the rest of the year, I won't change my opinion of 2012 so far.


Althugh the total is a little lower if we take out two joke storms, Helene and Joyce. Meanwhile, NOAA went way out on a limb in August 9, predicting between 12-17 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes, and 2-3 majors. Pretty gutsy considering that 7 named storms had already formed by August 9, with Isaac clearly poised to be number 8.
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17-8-3
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't understand why they won't make it a holiday.It should be a time for Americans to reflect what happened.My co-worker lost her best friend in the plane crash that hit the Pentagon.All they found of her was her pinky finger and nothing else.


Seems odd to me too. I think I understand in a way, but really....I had already moved to the UK and still rememeber that day vividly. And I've never been a patriot by any means, but it is my home country, and it was still an atrocity (no matter what else the US has contributed to or done themselves, it still was a pure act of terrorism by someone using the US as propoganda himself).

I have Brit friends here, who want nothing more than to visit the memorial at ground zero out of respect, so it's not just Americans who feel the pulse of it.
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Maybe Code Red at 2am EDT.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32262
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
342....Do I get a juicer with that?


I'd like to think of something funny to say about that line, but I'm too tired.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Michael's not looking so good...



makes me very sad! :( He's been such a lovely dude and hung on for so long to boot
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Quoting sar2401:

Looking at it on the Wundermap, it appears to be a weak tropical wave between Honduras and Cuba. Doesn't look too impressive, but there is a surface low emerging from Mexico into the BOC which might bear watching.

Ill be watching that!
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Do we know when the Arctic will be sea ice-free?
Posted on September 10, 2012 by Claire K



http://oncirculation.com/2012/09/10/do-we-know-wh en-the-arctic-will-be-sea-ice-free/
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Quoting sar2401:

You mean before or after it's ignited? :)


Before, of course.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11265
342....Do I get a juicer with that?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11265
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Exactly how "hot" is real rocket fuel?

You mean before or after it's ignited? :)
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Does that mean I can post Christmas videos now? I mean heck, the trappings are already in the stores.

Only if you have my patented Tin Foil Hat. It will protect you from bad mojo when posting Christmas videos before Halloween as well as protect you from the coming Mayan Destruction. Order now for the low, low price of $59.99 at www.simpletons.com. If you order within the next two hours, I'll throw in a free Ginsu knife. Hurry, quantities are limited by the slav....er, well paid employess in China, since they can only make so many folds per day before being disabled from tin foil cuts. :)
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Quoting sar2401:

Yet, strangely, water temperatures were that high when Ernesto went through....and then Helene. Apparently the rocket fuel theory isn't working this year.


Exactly how "hot" is real rocket fuel?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11265
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Yet, strangely, water temperatures were that high when Ernesto went through....and then Helene. Apparently the rocket fuel theory isn't working this year.
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Quoting sar2401:

Wow, that's going out on a limb. The real question is will it make landfall on the 13th of the month? Not that it will matter anyway, since the Mayans are going to destroy us on December Something, 2012. If you order my patented Tin Foil Hat right away, you'll be safe until the 2013 hurricane season. :)


Does that mean I can post Christmas videos now? I mean heck, the trappings are already in the stores.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11265
338. JLPR2
Quoting Civicane49:
91L:



Come on! Move just a tad further west, bring me some rain and nicer temps and then you can move NE if you want.

I guess 2009-2011 spoiled me. XD The year so far is similar to 2008 in terms of rainfall. (of course in my area, NE PR)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
some snow starting to show up


Right on time too, since the average date of the first snow in the Kootenay Rockies is about September 15.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting unknowncomic:
Prediction for next year:
Someone will be unlucky in 2013 and get a Hurricane landfall.

Wow, that's going out on a limb. The real question is will it make landfall on the 13th of the month? Not that it will matter anyway, since the Mayans are going to destroy us on December Something, 2012. If you order my patented Tin Foil Hat right away, you'll be safe until the 2013 hurricane season. :)
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Quoting weatherh98:


what people call a bust

Obviously a bust peak since there are 2 active storms and 1 invest. Also obviously a bust season since we have already had 13 TS's and 7 hurricanes and the season is only half way done.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder..let me believe 91L looks ugly to me..
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some snow starting to show up

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Michael's not looking so good...


While Michael is slowly fading away Leslie is slowly building up.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting Civicane49:
91L:


Does he have a fork in his right hand? I think he's threatening us. :)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It looks horrid right now.

Its not that bad actually.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
91L:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 30 knots of wind shear the SHIPS showed last night has magically disappeared. Why does it always do this? Lol.

SHEAR (KT) 4 8 5 3 2 8 3 6 8 12 4 10 8

Dry air will not be a significant inhibitor.

700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 63 64 61 60 65 61 60 61 62 67

Lol, that does get annoying. So now 91L magically gets anything it lost back.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
To me it does.Even ugly Leslie looked better at this stage.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Washingtonian115.


Maybe you change your opinion after seeing the floater?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14315
Quoting washingtonian115:
The one in 1926 flattened Miami.Lol.

Oh, OK, I knew there was some hurricane in 1926 in Florida that flattened something...or at least a lot more flattening than ever came out of 90L. :)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Michael's not looking so good...


He actually looks like a real fish in that graphic....kind of swollen guppy. :)
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is a real good invest. Who said the contrary? SSD Floater is now up.

Washingtonian115.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It looks horrid right now.

It does?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32262
Quoting sar2401:

Wasn't that the storm that flattened Tampa...or am I thinking of a hurricane in 1926? :)
The one in 1926 flattened Miami.Lol.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SHIP is very agressive on intensity for 91L.

WHXX01 KWBC 100057
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0057 UTC MON SEP 10 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912012) 20120910 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120910 0000 120910 1200 120911 0000 120911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 33.6W 16.1N 36.2W 17.1N 39.3W 18.3N 42.8W
BAMD 15.0N 33.6W 15.8N 36.7W 16.7N 39.7W 17.5N 42.3W
BAMM 15.0N 33.6W 15.9N 36.7W 16.8N 39.7W 17.7N 42.6W
LBAR 15.0N 33.6W 15.8N 37.2W 16.9N 40.8W 18.2N 44.1W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120912 0000 120913 0000 120914 0000 120915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 46.2W 21.4N 52.9W 23.4N 57.0W 25.3N 57.4W
BAMD 18.4N 44.7W 20.7N 49.0W 24.7N 51.7W 29.2N 52.7W
BAMM 18.7N 45.3W 20.7N 50.5W 23.8N 54.2W 27.4N 55.3W
LBAR 19.6N 46.9W 23.9N 51.1W 29.5N 51.3W 31.8N 44.3W
SHIP 68KTS 87KTS 96KTS 95KTS
DSHP 68KTS 87KTS 96KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 33.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 29.2W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 25.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



don`t they always do the same with every invest? I thought so.
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Prediction for next year:
Someone will be unlucky in 2013 and get a Hurricane landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is a real good invest. Who said the contrary? SSD Floater is now up.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14315
Quoting washingtonian115:
Not a surprise when it had 90L in the gulf as a hurricane.We all know how that turned out.Lol.

Wasn't that the storm that flattened Tampa...or am I thinking of a hurricane in 1926? :)
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh I'm sorry, I did not realize this wasn't a real invest.

It looks horrid right now.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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