Leslie brushing Bermuda, heading for Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2012

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It's a wet, windy day on Bermuda today, where Tropical Storm Leslie is bringing high winds and heavy rain as the storm's core passes 120 miles (200 km) east of the island. At the Saint David's weather station on the east end of the island, Leslie brought sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 54 mph, at 12:30 pm AST today. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is over the island, and these rains will continue through most of the afternoon, and the Bermuda airport is closed until 4 pm AST. Satellite loops show that Leslie is a large storm with a huge eye 60 miles (100 km) in diameter, but the storm does not have an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar, taken at 12:43 AST.

Forecast for Leslie
As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become a Category 1 hurricane. The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 36% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Tuesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds are expected to extend outward from its center 160 miles to its northwest on Tuesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pound the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Leslie as seen by NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:20 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 60 mph. Bermuda is the yellow triangle at the left of the image. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 1
Hurricane Michael has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters east of Newfoundland in 3 - 4 days.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 9:40 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 91L) is 250 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The disturbance is large with plenty of spin, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to dry air. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
Very interesting scenario developing with that low that both the GFS and EURO are forecasting to live Africa in 4-5 days. Is foretasted to move west till day 8 at a very lo latitude 10N. If by day 6-8 a ridge  could develop south of 91L the new low could easily slip under it an threaten al least the lesser antilles.




I hope it to become the storm I want.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6168
Lol glad to see everybody on here don't hate me. I liked some comments in response to mine.. so guys don't worry about me, people in my area are very well prepared and our buildings are generally certified for 150mph winds (and strong earthquakes by the way...). Though I'm not crazy, I don't want another Georges, Luis, Hugo, or Lenny... just a nice slow moving TS (definitely something more interesting than weak stuff like Ernesto, TD7 and Isaac .. as they crossed the Windwards.) or a cat 1 at most. And getting decent rainfalls from DECENT tropical waves would be nice too... as we DIDN'T EVEN GET A DROP SINCE EARLY AUGUST!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6168
Very interesting scenario developing with that low that both the GFS and EURO are forecasting to live Africa in 4-5 days. Is foretasted to move west till day 8 at a very lo latitude 10N. If by day 6-8 a ridge  could develop south of 91L the new low could easily slip under it an threaten al least the lesser antilles.


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Can you imagine the ACE Leslie would have generated had it become a major hurricane? I am disappointed.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

the top one is weakening while the bottom one is intensifying...Hawaii must watch it..
I don`t see anything in the Atlantic.
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


makes me very sad! :( He's been such a lovely dude and hung on for so long to boot

I can see the headlines now:
Nuuk, formerly Godthåb, Greenland Flattened by Leslie and Michael.
The Danes are going to be cranked off, with all their ice melting, and now this. :)
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
342....Do I get a juicer with that?

Now, look, I'm giving you a free Ginsu knife with my patented Tin Foil Hat, how do your expect me to make any money if I also give away juicers? My cost of goods is already up to 4% of selling price. Adding a free juicer would probably make it almost 5%. I have yacht payments and things coming up, so no free juicer. I will knock $10 off the price if you send me a case of band-aids for my Chinese slav...dang...well paid employees's many tin foil cuts. All the blood is making the reject rate soar.
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the top one is weakening while the bottom one is intensifying...Hawaii must watch it..
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Before, of course.

Considering I always see cold air looking steam coming from rockets on the launch pad, I think it would freeze you solid in about 10 microseconds.
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Quoting sar2401:

True, but I'm still sticking with slim to none. I'll buy a homegrown, but I just don't think CV hurricanes have much of a chance this year, especially if the cold air predicted for later this month sets up a blocking trough in the Atlantic.


I hadn't heard about the cold air. That could definitely pose a problem.
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403. JLPR2
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


91L


Looking healthy, anyone have a microwave pass?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think it also depends on how quickly it develops. Ernesto and Isaac didn't develop until west of 50W, at which point recurvature becomes more difficult if the system is at 15N or below.

True, but I'm still sticking with slim to none. I'll buy a homegrown, but I just don't think CV hurricanes have much of a chance this year, especially if the cold air predicted for later this month sets up a blocking trough in the Atlantic.
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Opps. Double Post
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Seems odd to me too. I think I understand in a way, but really....I had already moved to the UK and still rememeber that day vividly. And I've never been a patriot by any means, but it is my home country, and it was still an atrocity (no matter what else the US has contributed to or done themselves, it still was a pure act of terrorism by someone using the US as propoganda himself).

I have Brit friends here, who want nothing more than to visit the memorial at ground zero out of respect, so it's not just Americans who feel the pulse of it.

I suspect it's for the same reason we don't have December 7 as a holiday. Both were major fails for this country's security, and we generally don't celebrate things like that.
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Quoting Grothar:


If you look back in April, those were the numbers I posted after Drs. Gray and Klotzbach gave their first figures. I have not changed. I have maintained throughout the season it would not be normal-below normal.

I know, Gro, I'm just yanking your chain. :)
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Quoting sar2401:

Considering we've had exactly two landfalling hurricaes from the CV region, Ernesto and Isaac, with only Isaac making landfall in the US, I think the chances of what hasn't formed yet getting here are slim to none.


I think it also depends on how quickly it develops. Ernesto and Isaac didn't develop until west of 50W, at which point recurvature becomes more difficult if the system is at 15N or below.
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Quoting lobdelse81:

I agree with this. Anyone else have their take on that t-wave coming off Africa that could eventually be Oscar (assuming 91L becomes Nadine)?

Considering we've had exactly two landfalling hurricaes from the CV region, Ernesto and Isaac, with only Isaac making landfall in the US, I think the chances of what hasn't formed yet getting here are slim to none.
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Quoting lobdelse81:

Yes I did. Cute:)




Ok
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


91L
probably 60% at the 2am update.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



Did you see post 381?

Yes I did. Cute:)
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Quoting Allan012:


He's wundercaymankid's twin brother...
One in the western Caribbean and the other in the eastern Caribbean.
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91L
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Quoting lobdelse81:



Did you see post 381?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm thinking that one could be an actual land threat, possibly to the US (although it's far too early for that kind of talk).
I can see myself having fun with posting images of Oscar the Grouch when indeed we do get Oscar to track:)
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CaribBoy, I sympathize with your liking for extreme weather. However, as someone who just went through and wished for Isaac, I have but one admonishment: be careful what you wish for. Make sure you are ready to deal with the consequences of that wish. Yes boring weather sucks, but so does being ill-prepared for a hurricane. Let's just say... my wallet is now paying for it. >.> <.<
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..
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Quoting lobdelse81:

What is your take on the wave coming off Africa? Maybe Oscar the grouch, lol?


I'm thinking that one could be an actual land threat, possibly to the US (although it's far too early for that kind of talk).
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Did somebody call my name???

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Quoting Allan012:


Now that we got your date of birth out of the way. Lets move on to your employment history.



LOL
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How old is CaribBoy?? Sounds very young.
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Quoting lobdelse81:

I want to see Oscar the grouch, lol.



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Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't think he knows that lust is one of the seven deadly sins.

What is your take on the wave coming off Africa? Maybe Oscar the grouch, lol?
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I think there is a glitch at the NHC site as the advisories have not been out yet.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I can see CaribBoy's lusting for a hurricane to hit his country hasn't let up.


I don't think he knows that lust is one of the seven deadly sins.
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I can see CaribBoy's lusting for a hurricane to hit his country hasn't let up.
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375. 7544
Quoting CaribBoy:
Ok guys Nadine is a waste of time, let's focus on pre 92L lool I'm crazy


lol
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Ok guys Nadine is a waste of time, let's focus on pre 92L lool I'm crazy

I want to see Oscar the grouch, lol.
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Quoting goalexgo:
Our attention now turns to pre-Oscar. 91L is lost to us, unless every model in creation is wrong. Oscar, coming off at 10 degrees, is a major threat to Florida on the 23rd. Looks more and more like South Florida.

I agree with this. Anyone else have their take on that t-wave coming off Africa that could eventually be Oscar (assuming 91L becomes Nadine)?
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Was terribly bored with waves coming off at 15-17 N! WTF with that!!!
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Our attention now turns to pre-Oscar. 91L is lost to us, unless every model in creation is wrong. Oscar, coming off at 10 degrees, is a major threat to Florida on the 23rd. Looks more and more like South Florida.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It looks horrid right now.


And above all.... it also looks fishy. Well, go in hell 91L. You are not even able to bring us rain
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Quoting sar2401:

Aw, you just took the high end numbers from the NOAA August 9 forecast. I see what you're up to. :)


If you look back in April, those were the numbers I posted after Drs. Gray and Klotzbach gave their first figures. I have not changed. I have maintained throughout the season it would not be normal-below normal.
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Quoting Allan012:


Now that we got your date of birth out of the way. Lets move on to your employment history.

Dang...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.