Leslie brushing Bermuda, heading for Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2012

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It's a wet, windy day on Bermuda today, where Tropical Storm Leslie is bringing high winds and heavy rain as the storm's core passes 120 miles (200 km) east of the island. At the Saint David's weather station on the east end of the island, Leslie brought sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 54 mph, at 12:30 pm AST today. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is over the island, and these rains will continue through most of the afternoon, and the Bermuda airport is closed until 4 pm AST. Satellite loops show that Leslie is a large storm with a huge eye 60 miles (100 km) in diameter, but the storm does not have an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar, taken at 12:43 AST.

Forecast for Leslie
As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become a Category 1 hurricane. The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 36% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Tuesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds are expected to extend outward from its center 160 miles to its northwest on Tuesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pound the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Leslie as seen by NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:20 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 60 mph. Bermuda is the yellow triangle at the left of the image. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 1
Hurricane Michael has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters east of Newfoundland in 3 - 4 days.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 9:40 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 91L) is 250 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The disturbance is large with plenty of spin, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to dry air. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Now that 91L looks better than what it did yesterday night i think a T.D is good at either 5p.m or 8p.m tonight.


Okay maybe sooner :)
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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 805 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND... AND ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1065 MILES
WEST OF THE AZORES.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 855 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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Updated blog with forecast graphic

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927





91L
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Looks like Leslie will be EX tropical shortly ...
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Good Morning
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Yeah, so long as one believes in the hook scenario. Paint me a sceptic though. If they are wrong about the speed they might be wrong about the place where the hook starts occurring.
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nothing to worry about tropically
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91L is moving west quite quickly. I think it is moving faster than what NHC latest report indicates.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Leslie was looking better for awhile, now though she is getting hurt more by dry air.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Forecast for the Tampa Bay area...................
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Blog update on Leslie, Michael, and 91L
I'll have my forecast graphic included ASAP.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
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Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:


I remember the models predicting she was going to become a category 27 super-monster hurricane with concentric circles so tightly packed, the whole thing looked like the blackened tip of God's eraser, wiping out wide swaths of creation. Perhaps they set your expectations a bit high? ;)


Now that is a funny comment.. LOL.. Great comment for so early in the morning ...Cheers!!!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Believe it or not a 5.6 quake stroke the area yesterday afternoon (CR time)... I was there and I felt it fairly strong (I have not been there in 6 years) so it freaked me. Many other little aftershocks kept shaking the ground there in Nicoya.
I went there for a day, since the water pipes are broken everywhere we had to go to a place to get good clean water in containers and carry it. The ICE (CR electricity company) is repairing power all around. Many power poles, wires and transformers were on the floor. Some houses collapsed partially others totally. My sister's is ok but its not safe to be in it. They took all they could with them to San Jose where I have my house, it's like 2-3 hours away or so... Since I don't live there they can stay for as long as they want. Even in San Jose there were some damages. A +200 year old stone monument was damaged and some pieces fell off n the capital city, the public works crew is fixing it because it's a very important structure done before the independence.Some people were taken to hospitals in Liberia, a close city.
I love to see everyone working hard recovering. A huge mudslide covering an important road was about half-way taken away.
My sister and her family is ok thankfully.

I came back Sunday morning, so I'm back to USA...


I thought it was 7.6 I have a friend who has a house 20 miles from center in Playa Negra.
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Leslie (top left), Michael (top center) and 91L (lower right):

trio
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Michael

Still a decent looking storm, but I see why its weakening.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927


Michael
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Can you imagine the ACE Leslie would have generated had it become a major hurricane? I am disappointed.


I remember the models predicting she was going to become a category 27 super-monster hurricane with concentric circles so tightly packed, the whole thing looked like the blackened tip of God's eraser, wiping out wide swaths of creation. Perhaps they set your expectations a bit high? ;)
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Good morning everyone, I see 91L is up to 70%, Leslie is still the same and Michael is weakening.
The big picture:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Morning 91L doing well in this rainbow image

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OMG is anybody here. I have such insomnia. Doc gave me soma and its keepingn me awake???
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just bought an inspeed vortex wind gauge rated up to 150mph..waiting for it in the mail and waiting on next big storm here..if its not a thunderstorm on TS/cane im hoping for some nice noreasters this winter
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Quoting Funication:

wheres nadine?

It's 91L, forecast to eventually become Nadine. Hasn't happened yet.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13110

Quoting HurricaneGroupie:
Looks like Nadine is gonna try a loopty doo!!!!!
wheres nadine?
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Looks like Nadine is gonna try a loopty doo!!!!!
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Blog update.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Believe it or not a 5.6 quake stroke the area yesterday afternoon (CR time)... I was there and I felt it fairly strong (I have not been there in 6 years) so it freaked me. Many other little aftershocks kept shaking the ground there in Nicoya.
I went there for a day, since the water pipes are broken everywhere we had to go to a place to get good clean water in containers and carry it. The ICE (CR electricity company) is repairing power all around. Many power poles, wires and transformers were on the floor. Some houses collapsed partially others totally. My sister's is ok but its not safe to be in it. They took all they could with them to San Jose where I have my house, it's like 2-3 hours away or so... Since I don't live there they can stay for as long as they want. Even in San Jose there were some damages. A +200 year old stone monument was damaged and some pieces fell off n the capital city, the public works crew is fixing it because it's a very important structure done before the independence.Some people were taken to hospitals in Liberia, a close city.
I love to see everyone working hard recovering. A huge mudslide covering an important road was about half-way taken away.
My sister and her family is ok thankfully.

I came back Sunday morning, so I'm back to USA...


Wow, glad to see everyone's okay.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


You're a nice person, will remember what you said and the advice you gave me. You know..I'm feeling sorry as regards the consequences Isaac was responsible for, though I'm still agree that constant good weather is extremely boring lol.


You know, I find it extremely surprising that an islander finds "good" weather boring. I thought you guys were all sunshine and stuff? You know, good beach days!
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WTNT62 KNHC 100547
TCUAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012

...WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND...

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE EASTWARD
AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA TO CHARLOTTETOWN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INDIAN HARBOUR EASTWARD TO WEST OF
STONES COVE...AND FROM FOGO ISLAND SOUTHWARD TO CHARLOTTETOWN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN HARBOUR TO STONES COVE
* FOGO ISLAND TO CHARLOTTETOWN
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Believe it or not a 5.6 quake stroke the area yesterday afternoon (CR time)... I was there and I felt it fairly strong (I have not been there in 6 years) so it freaked me. Many other little aftershocks kept shaking the ground there in Nicoya.
I went there for a day, since the water pipes are broken everywhere we had to go to a place to get good clean water in containers and carry it. The ICE (CR electricity company) is repairing power all around. Many power poles, wires and transformers were on the floor. Some houses collapsed partially others totally. My sister's is ok but its not safe to be in it. They took all they could with them to San Jose where I have my house, it's like 2-3 hours away or so... Since I don't live there they can stay for as long as they want. Even in San Jose there were some damages. A +200 year old stone monument was damaged and some pieces fell off n the capital city, the public works crew is fixing it because it's a very important structure done before the independence.Some people were taken to hospitals in Liberia, a close city.
I love to see everyone working hard recovering. A huge mudslide covering an important road was about half-way taken away.
My sister and her family is ok thankfully.

I came back Sunday morning, so I'm back to USA...
The earth has a belly ache.

Glad to year that your sister is safe. If you have a photo of her house, send it to me. I'll explain why via PM.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Here comes Nadine.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.


wow...70% and we have 40% in the Epac...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


What happened in Costa Rica?


Believe it or not a 5.6 quake stroke the area yesterday afternoon (CR time)... I was there and I felt it fairly strong (I have not been there in 6 years) so it freaked me. Many other little aftershocks kept shaking the ground there in Nicoya.
I went there for a day, since the water pipes are broken everywhere we had to go to a place to get good clean water in containers and carry it. The ICE (CR electricity company) is repairing power all around. Many power poles, wires and transformers were on the floor. Some houses collapsed partially others totally. My sister's is ok but its not safe to be in it. They took all they could with them to San Jose where I have my house, it's like 2-3 hours away or so... Since I don't live there they can stay for as long as they want. Even in San Jose there were some damages. A +200 year old stone monument was damaged and some pieces fell off n the capital city, the public works crew is fixing it because it's a very important structure done before the independence.Some people were taken to hospitals in Liberia, a close city.
I love to see everyone working hard recovering. A huge mudslide covering an important road was about half-way taken away.
My sister and her family is ok thankfully.

I came back Sunday morning, so I'm back to USA...
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Wow ! September Cool Fronts are nice.
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And we have code red!
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Nadine better be a major that don`t affect land almost every female name this year has been boring.
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Here comes Nadine.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Just remember what I said, okay? Unlike most people, I don't lose my temper when people wish for a storm. There are more important things to worry about than inconsequential wishes. I've always found tranquil weather to be amongst one of the most boring things on Earth. I don't care what anyone says, there is nothing "good" about "good" weather, lol. However, Isaac changed me considerably. It caught me extremely off-guard, and while I am still a fan of extreme weather, I am now going to proceed with a little more caution. I wasn't ready to reap the repercussions of my desire. Are you?

If you are prepared, financially and emotionally, I have nothing to discuss. But if you're not...


You're a nice person, will remember what you said and the advice you gave me. You know..I'm feeling sorry as regards the consequences Isaac was responsible for, though I'm still agree that constant good weather is extremely boring lol.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
i mean I came here sooo excited to see posts going here...so boring..

Also made an unexpected and out-of-plan trip to Nicoya, Costa Rica to see myself the damages and all around looks pretty bad but not as much like i thought... My sister's house was severely damaged so I told her to leave to my house in San Jose for the time they need to rebuild the house...


What happened in Costa Rica?
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ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...IKE STILL MOVING OVER WATER SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...WINDS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.9 N...81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

FOUR YEARS AGO...THE THREAT WAS BUILDING
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91L
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i mean I came here sooo excited to see posts going here...so boring..

Also made an unexpected and out-of-plan trip to Nicoya, Costa Rica to see myself the damages and all around looks pretty bad but not as much like i thought... My sister's house was severely damaged so I told her to leave to my house in San Jose for the time they need to rebuild the house...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


with that said... the blog continues forward...although it's at turtle speed


Obviously the blog finds marine storms boring as well. lol
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Quoting allancalderini:
I don`t see anything in the Atlantic.


there is a big low there...can't see it.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Just remember what I said, okay? Unlike most people, I don't lose my temper when people wish for a storm. There are more important things to worry about than inconsequential wishes. I've always found tranquil weather to be amongst one of the most boring things on Earth. I don't care what anyone says, there is nothing "good" about "good" weather, lol. However, Isaac changed me considerably. It caught me extremely off-guard, and while I am still a fan of extreme weather, I am now going to proceed with a little more caution. I wasn't ready to reap the repercussions of my desire. Are you?

If you are prepared, financially and emotionally, I have nothing to discuss. But if you're not...


with that said... the blog continues forward...although it's at turtle speed
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Quoting CaribBoy:


I hope it to become the storm I want.


Just remember what I said, okay? Unlike most people, I don't lose my temper when people wish for a storm. There are more important things to worry about than inconsequential wishes. I've always found tranquil weather to be amongst one of the most boring things on Earth. I don't care what anyone says, there is nothing "good" about "good" weather, lol. However, Isaac changed me considerably. It caught me extremely off-guard, and while I am still a fan of extreme weather, I am now going to proceed with a little more caution. I wasn't ready to reap the repercussions of my desire. Are you?

If you are prepared, financially and emotionally, I have nothing to discuss. But if you're not...
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Gosh blog is dead again loool
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
Very interesting scenario developing with that low that both the GFS and EURO are forecasting to live Africa in 4-5 days. Is foretasted to move west till day 8 at a very lo latitude 10N. If by day 6-8 a ridge  could develop south of 91L the new low could easily slip under it an threaten al least the lesser antilles.




I hope it to become the storm I want.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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