Leslie brushing Bermuda, heading for Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2012

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It's a wet, windy day on Bermuda today, where Tropical Storm Leslie is bringing high winds and heavy rain as the storm's core passes 120 miles (200 km) east of the island. At the Saint David's weather station on the east end of the island, Leslie brought sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 54 mph, at 12:30 pm AST today. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is over the island, and these rains will continue through most of the afternoon, and the Bermuda airport is closed until 4 pm AST. Satellite loops show that Leslie is a large storm with a huge eye 60 miles (100 km) in diameter, but the storm does not have an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar, taken at 12:43 AST.

Forecast for Leslie
As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become a Category 1 hurricane. The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 36% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Tuesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds are expected to extend outward from its center 160 miles to its northwest on Tuesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pound the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Leslie as seen by NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:20 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 60 mph. Bermuda is the yellow triangle at the left of the image. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 1
Hurricane Michael has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters east of Newfoundland in 3 - 4 days.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 9:40 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 91L) is 250 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The disturbance is large with plenty of spin, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to dry air. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Should be enough for classification.

The number of named stormed days continues to add up..
Maybe Oscar will be interesting to track.The others out to sea we go.
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91L has been removed from most sites. Usually it means they are about to declare a TD.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
511. JLPR2
Looks like 91L has a twin to the south, it will need to gain distance or absorb it to strengthen. In the meanwhile they will probably fight a little for dominance, with 91L having a clear advantage.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8493
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Why do the Feds waste our tax payer dollars by flying into tropical storms in the north atlantic with no threat to the U.S. seems like a huge waste of money!!
Trying to justify someones paycheck!


The US has joint security agreements with other countries, i.e. Canada and I am sure that the flights have something to do with that. Gander, Newfoundland is used by NATO as a military base, if I am not mistaken... Perhaps the other countries could pay a bigger share of this, just as other counties could share the burden of military security instead of having the US doing it.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Then who else is it about? There's no inlands in the North Atlantic. Is the Big Tuna the beneficiary?


Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes would disagree.
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508. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Then who else is it about? There's no inlands in the North Atlantic. Is the Big Tuna the beneficiary?


LOL Tomball ...there maybe no inlands but there are quite a few Islands ....
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Quoting SLU:
10/1145 UTC 15.5N 38.5W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

Should be enough for classification.

The number of named stormed days continues to add up..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31414
505. VR46L
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Thank you! I didn't even notice. Maybe Nea will bake me a pie :)


Would that not be Pat's Job ?
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Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Why do the Feds waste our tax payer dollars by flying into tropical storms in the north atlantic with no threat to the U.S. seems like a huge waste of money!!
Trying to justify someones paycheck!


Because it's not just about US
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Quoting bigwes6844:
happy 5 year anniversary


Thank you! I didn't even notice. Maybe Nea will bake me a pie :)
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502. SLU
10/1145 UTC 15.5N 38.5W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic
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498. A4Guy
Quoting msphar:
Yeah, so long as one believes in the hook scenario. Paint me a septic though. If they are wrong about the speed they might be wrong about the place where the hook starts occurring.
Hmmm...if you are sceptic, get to a hospital. if you are skeptical, I would ask - how often has the NHC been worng about these stoms...and by what margin? Very little. Yes, it's possible 5+ days out, steering currents may change, and the storm could stall, move back west, etc...but they have a pretty good idea of where it's going in the next several days.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Fish sticks?
Any.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
Quoting prcane4you:
So,fishy smell early in the morning?


Fish sticks?
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Good morning, everyone. I see 91L should go out to sea, though TWC says they 'think' it will go out to sea. I'm loving these 57 degree mornings, though by Wednesday it will be back to the 70 something mornings.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
?

From "invest_DELETE_al912012.ren":

AL, 91, 2012071818, , BEST, 0, 412N, 548W, 25, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,






i think thats old
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
happy 5 year anniversary
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Quoting weatherh98:


It's got pretty nice convection
So,fishy smell early in the morning?
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?

From "invest_DELETE_al912012.ren":

AL, 91, 2012071818, , BEST, 0, 412N, 548W, 25, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Should be a TD at 11am EDT or 5pm EDT.



It's got pretty nice convection
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Quoting weatherh98:


Who cares?! It's a tracker haah

I was just thinking that you would be posting any and second and right on time you are here.
Also I guess I care.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting allancalderini:
Nadine better be a beautiful major that don`t affect land almost every women name this year has been a fail.

I really hope this isn't another storm that fails, I want this one to get an A+.

I have to go to school, bye everyone.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting wxchaser97:

I hope so, not like some of our other storms.


I'm very confident of a TD today, the track will be out to sea.


Who cares?! It's a tracker haah
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Whoa, someone is still tired this morning. Even though it doesn't affect much land that is really good and they can safely be watched.
I think people around here like's fish as breakfast.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Michael still a hurricane, says ATCF:

AL, 13, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 335N, 459W, 70, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1017, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, D,

Michael still looks like a hurricane and since ATCF says hurricane the NHC will keep Michael as a hurricane for a little while longer now.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting prcane4you:
Another one out to open seas.Why keep watching recurving hurricanes.Fish menu?

Because they are still hurricanes and people don't need to worry about landfall.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Why do the Feds waste our tax payer dollars by flying into tropical storms in the north atlantic with no threat to the U.S. seems like a huge waste of money!!
Trying to justify someones paycheck!
Scientific research that can lead to life- and property-saving advances in learning is never a waste, if you ask me. (Though I'm certain some anti-government types will disagree.)
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Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Why do the Feds waste our tax payer dollars by flying into tropical storms in the north atlantic with no threat to the U.S. seems like a huge waste of money!!
Trying to justify someones paycheck!


I think it's more about knowledge & information. Better understanding so they can help save lives for that one that does threaten lives. I would bet that there are a lot of science investigation going on right now with what they learned from Isaac
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I HATE polls.



same here
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Quoting prcane4you:
The same story again and again.Waste of time.

Whoa, someone is still tired this morning. Even though it doesn't affect much land that is really good and they can safely be watched.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting wxchaser97:
Updated blog with forecast graphic

Another one out to open seas.Why keep watching recurving hurricanes.Fish menu?
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Michael still a hurricane, says ATCF:

AL, 13, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 335N, 459W, 70, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1017, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, D,
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Nadine better be a beautiful major that don`t affect land almost every women name this year has been a fail.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
91L will be a pretty fish.

I hope so, not like some of our other storms.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Should be a TD at 11am EDT or 5pm EDT.


I'm very confident of a TD today, the track will be out to sea.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting washingtonian115:
91L will be a pretty fish.
The same story again and again.Waste of time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I HATE polls.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16374
Why do the Feds waste our tax payer dollars by flying into tropical storms in the north atlantic with no threat to the U.S. seems like a huge waste of money!!
Trying to justify someones paycheck!
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. What time will 91L be a TD or TS
A.11AM TD
B.11AM TS
C.5PM TD
D.5PM TS
E.11PM TD
F.11PM TS
I say A or B
The boring pollster strikes again.
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Q. What time will 91L be a TD or TS
A.11AM TD
B.11AM TS
C.5PM TD
D.5PM TS
E.11PM TD
F.11PM TS
I say A or B
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Should be a TD at 11am EDT or 5pm EDT.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31414
91L will be a pretty fish.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16374
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Now that 91L looks better than what it did yesterday night i think a T.D is good at either 5p.m or 8p.m tonight.


Okay maybe sooner :)

Should be a TD pretty soon, looks very good.
AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
91L is up to 90%, I give it a 100% as at least some development in the next 48hrs is very likely.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Now that 91L looks better than what it did yesterday night i think a T.D is good at either 5p.m or 8p.m tonight.


Okay maybe sooner :)
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16374

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.