Leslie brushing Bermuda, heading for Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2012

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It's a wet, windy day on Bermuda today, where Tropical Storm Leslie is bringing high winds and heavy rain as the storm's core passes 120 miles (200 km) east of the island. At the Saint David's weather station on the east end of the island, Leslie brought sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 54 mph, at 12:30 pm AST today. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is over the island, and these rains will continue through most of the afternoon, and the Bermuda airport is closed until 4 pm AST. Satellite loops show that Leslie is a large storm with a huge eye 60 miles (100 km) in diameter, but the storm does not have an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar, taken at 12:43 AST.

Forecast for Leslie
As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become a Category 1 hurricane. The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 36% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Tuesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds are expected to extend outward from its center 160 miles to its northwest on Tuesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pound the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Leslie as seen by NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:20 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 60 mph. Bermuda is the yellow triangle at the left of the image. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 1
Hurricane Michael has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters east of Newfoundland in 3 - 4 days.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 9:40 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 91L) is 250 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The disturbance is large with plenty of spin, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to dry air. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting LargoFl:


What is the purpose of copying and pasting images without adding any comment? Besides being illegal (many of those images are copyrighted) I can see them from their source and even see there the comments that your posts are lacking.
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Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EDT Sunday 9 September 2012
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.93 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 65.8°F
Dewpoint: 47.7°F
Humidity: 52 %
Wind: NW 6 mph
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Quoting HurricaneDan:


B-e-a-utiful weather across much of the United States today, with at least 95% of the country having clear skies and pleasant temperatures today!
I haven't seen the U.S that clear in a long time!.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


With El Nino around and being a modoki one will help this 2012-2013 winter season be a more colder one than last season.

So excited!.I'm hoping for at least one snow storm in December.A blizzard in January and February bringing a total of 24" for the whole winter.
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Anyone know the possibilities for my being unable to post links or pics?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
the air is refreshing out side.I tended to the garden.Had a morning walk and sat out on the porch reading a book.It'll stay the same all week! and sunny as well.We needed this after the hell we were put through this summer.Winter should be interesting this year.


With El Nino around and being a modoki one will help this 2012-2013 winter season be a more colder one than last season.

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AL122012 - Tropical Storm LESLIE

2km Natural Color Imagery
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Quoting LargoFl:

Once again, that's obviously a very large hurricane wind field.
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55. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:


st least the models were right for ex 90l crosing over n fl and heading south lol
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Bust season.
/sarcasm

Obviously 13/7/1 is a bust season.
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the air is refreshing out side.I tended to the garden.Had a morning walk and sat out on the porch reading a book.It'll stay the same all week! and sunny as well.We needed this after the hell we were put through this summer.Winter should be interesting this year.
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48. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM of Leslie. Click pic for very large quicktime.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Bust season.
/sarcasm
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Says "the latest"

Posts day-old ASCAT pass

*eye twitches*

:P

Here's Michael.



Feel free to criticize this one too :P
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wow you're difficult to please :P I didn't say it was new, but it's the latest one... that I could find at least.

Says "the latest"

Posts day-old ASCAT pass

*eye twitches*

:P
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Quoting midgulfmom:
good thing...here goes. "I'm lonely blue swirl just waiting for my girl....to pass the Bahamas so we can dance the Fujiwara"....


That should hit the top 40...

Only I hope it doesn't do the Fujiwara.
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September 07, 2012

PASADENA, Calif. - NASA has begun its latest hurricane science field campaign by flying an unmanned Global Hawk aircraft over Hurricane Leslie in the Atlantic Ocean during a day-long flight that began in California and ended in Virginia. With the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission, NASA for the first time will be flying Global Hawks from the U.S. East Coast.

The Global Hawk took off from NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., Thursday and landed at the agency's Wallops Flight Facility on Wallops Island, Va., today at 8:37 a.m. PDT (11:37 a.m. EDT) after spending 10 hours collecting data on Hurricane Leslie. The month-long HS3 mission will help researchers and forecasters uncover information about how hurricanes and tropical storms form and intensify.

...

The first Global Hawk arrived Sept. 7 at Wallops carrying a payload of three instruments that will sample the environment around hurricanes. A second Global Hawk, scheduled to arrive in two weeks, will look inside hurricanes and developing storms with a different set of instruments. The pair will measure winds, temperature, water vapor, precipitation and aerosols from the surface to the lower stratosphere.

"The primary objective of the environmental Global Hawk is to describe the interaction of tropical disturbances and cyclones with the hot, dry and dusty air that moves westward off the Saharan desert and appears to affect the ability of storms to form and intensify," said Scott Braun, HS3 mission principal investigator and research meteorologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/m/news/index.cfm?release= 2012-281
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
No singing on a hurricane blog...Well, go ahead, I don't think anyone is listening
good thing...here goes. "I'm lonely blue swirl just waiting for my girl....to pass the Bahamas so we can dance the Fujiwara"....
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I think it's outdated...since Leslie isn't south of 30N.

Wow you're difficult to please :P I didn't say it was new, but it's the latest one... that I could find at least.
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91L remains at 40%... It certainly isn't in any hurry to organize.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think so too... lol.

I think it's outdated...since Leslie isn't south of 30N.
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that is a big eye...Im being deceived..are you sure the storm is weakening?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm pretty sure that's Leslie.

I think so too... lol.
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90E up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Thanks....not sure what I was looking at...still unclear but as long as not 91L...it's me tho not you...lol :p

Lol, no problem... 91L should stay way out to sea so you won't have to worry about it.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Latest ASCAT of Michael:


I'm pretty sure that's Leslie.
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Latest ASCAT of Leslie:

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

On the last blog I posted a couple of ensemble members from the 6z GFS, not the 12z. All the storms on those members were unrelated to 91L, they were at the end of the runs.
Thanks....not sure what I was looking at...still unclear but as long as not 91L...it's me tho not you...lol :p
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Quoting midgulfmom:
MAweatherboy1, those 12z maps you posted on the last blog were for 90L? TIA

On the last blog I posted a couple of ensemble members from the 6z GFS, not the 12z. All the storms on those members were unrelated to 91L, they were at the end of the runs.
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Quoting unknowncomic:
Can't rule out yet especially front storm generation and the caribbean/gom.
comic..Not my quote.... Way, way too early to say it's over... As a matter of fact, October has been a highly productive month in the last few years.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
No cap.... In fact tomorrow is considered the peak day of hurricane season... September 10th
Can't rule out yet especially front storm generation and the caribbean/gom.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
I feel a song coming on....
No singing on a hurricane blog...Well, go ahead, I don't think anyone is listening
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Models look like they are putting a cap on things. No threats to land masses for a very long while if ever. U would think given the time of the year, something would at least threaten a strike somewhere. Nothing in the gulf, nothing in the Caribbean and nothing but recurvacanes in the Atlantic.
No cap.... In fact tomorrow is considered the peak day of hurricane season... September 10th
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Quoting midgulfmom:
MAweatherboy1, those 12z maps you posted on the last blog were for 90L? TIA
meant 91L... sorry. Anyone?
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Quoting HurricaneDan:


Michael is still a little cute storm but as for Leslie ...horrid dont describe it

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The a word floats around my head when I look at this, just needs to lose that cloud tail.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
oops my mistake....meant 91L....thanks for catching eagle-eye! ;)



welcome
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Thank you Dr. Masters
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thanks dr jeff
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Michael still has the blues.
Reminds me of Maria 2005.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Michael still has the blues.
I feel a song coming on....
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Quoting Tazmanian:



90L is gone
oops my mistake....meant 91L....thanks for catching eagle-eye! ;)
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Here's my new Daily Briefing video blog. Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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