Leslie brushing Bermuda, heading for Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2012

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It's a wet, windy day on Bermuda today, where Tropical Storm Leslie is bringing high winds and heavy rain as the storm's core passes 120 miles (200 km) east of the island. At the Saint David's weather station on the east end of the island, Leslie brought sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 54 mph, at 12:30 pm AST today. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is over the island, and these rains will continue through most of the afternoon, and the Bermuda airport is closed until 4 pm AST. Satellite loops show that Leslie is a large storm with a huge eye 60 miles (100 km) in diameter, but the storm does not have an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar, taken at 12:43 AST.

Forecast for Leslie
As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become a Category 1 hurricane. The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 36% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Tuesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds are expected to extend outward from its center 160 miles to its northwest on Tuesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pound the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Leslie as seen by NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:20 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 60 mph. Bermuda is the yellow triangle at the left of the image. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 1
Hurricane Michael has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters east of Newfoundland in 3 - 4 days.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 9:40 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 91L) is 250 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The disturbance is large with plenty of spin, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to dry air. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting zicoille:
When will we get rain (or heavy rain) in the leewards islands. It's boring, sun, sun, sun always sun...



Boring drizzly rain here in the UK. Wettest summer for over a century.
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Quoting palmettobug53:
Good Lord.... recipes on Dr. M's blog? What next? lol


Knitting class

lol
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Quoting Dakster:


How much sand would you need to drop into the storm to make any kind of difference?

At the moment, I just do not see it being feasible.


I wouldn't either, but wondering if part of their idea with this is to measure how much would make a difference. Might just be in general for forecasting, but don't see why they wouldn't be investigating that thought as well. Aside from the aforementioned, it could also possibly be detrimental to other countries who might rely on the rain from systems, just to try and keep large hurricanes from forming. All conjecture anyway! But the post made me wonder if that might be part of their investigations!
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Looks like the latest euro wants to put a low in the Caribbean at the end of the run, it is time for the Caribbean to start acting up


I want it to pull an OMAR like storm
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Looks like the models want to bring it all the way to Norway. They already had two hurricane like storms last year.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25326
107. VR46L
Quoting falloch:
Can I say that those of us on the W coast of Scotland are REALLY looking forward (not) to the tail ends of Leslie and Michael. That's all, for now.


LOL I aint looking forward to it either but I think the west coast of Scotland will be worse off than I will be on the NW coast of Ireland . lots of weather and conditions coming together at the one time The big front coming off the US coast .. the two Extropial canes and not to mention the Jet stream to send it North East . I am concerned how little talk there is yet this side of the Atlantic ... I think its due Friday /Saturday sigh

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Quoting palmettobug53:
Good Lord.... recipes on Dr. M's blog? What next? lol


You've never been on here during Thanksgiving.?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25326
Quoting RTSplayer:
Help me remember this, weren't there 5 stall/slow moving systems this year?

I remember four:

Debby - stall
Isaac -stall
Leslie - stall
Michael - slow/stall



Wasn't there another one that stalled for a while, or was barely moving for like a day or two?

Kirk when he was pretty slowly making the turn?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Looks like the latest euro wants to put a low in the Caribbean at the end of the run, it is time for the Caribbean to start acting up
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When will we get rain (or heavy rain) in the leewards islands. It's boring, sun, sun, sun always sun...
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The 12z Euro develops 90E and 91L in 96 hours.

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I just looked at ADT for Michael, whoa.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.4mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.9 4.9

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Good Lord.... recipes on Dr. M's blog? What next? lol
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Can I say that those of us on the W coast of Scotland are REALLY looking forward (not) to the tail ends of Leslie and Michael. That's all, for now.
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#62 -- your description is missing a cornerstone of Italian seasoning: Oregano!


ON topic: With fronts coming down and winds becoming so westerly, is this the end of the SoFla rainy season? If so, this is going to be a crushing disappointment for SW Fla towns like Cape Coral. We got less than 4 inches of rain out of Isaac, our rainy season didn't even start till Deb and didn't really get going until July, and I've had less than half an inch of rain so far in September.

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Quoting elvette:


did Ernesto not have difficulties in the Caribbean Sea?


Only in intensity, not forward moving speed.

It seems to have stayed on a rather healthy pace of movement.





Maybe I'm just imagining things and there wasn't a 5th stalled storm...
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Quoting E46Pilot:


I wish they would stop trying to find ways to stop hurricanes.

We need hurricanes. Hurricanes help cool the earth. If we didn't have hurricanes we would end up like Mars.



Mars is hot?
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WOCN31 CWHX 091745
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:57 PM ADT Sunday
9 September 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Labrador
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island.

For tropical storm Leslie.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

Tropical storm Leslie moving northward. Direct and indirect
Impacts in Atlantic Canada Sunday through Tuesday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: 32.2 north 62.2 west.

About 230 kilometres eastof Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 100 km/hour.

Present movement: north at 17 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 986 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Overview:

Leslie is moving northward so we are now able to get into some
details with respect to the track, timing and intensity. There will
be direct and indirect impacts in Atlantic Canada. A front is
forecast to stall over the Maritimes due to the presence of the
tropical storm/hurricane to the south. 40 millimetres of rain has
fallen already over parts of Western Nova Scotia. The front will
likely then merge with Leslie with the combined systems crossing
Newfoundland on Tuesday. We have more confidence now in the
direction Leslie will take but still uncertain on the arrival time.
Also the likelihood of Leslie's centre making landfall somewhere in
Newfoundland is quite high now. The storm's effects will be
far-reaching with a circulation about 800 kilometres in diameter so
do not put much focus on the line on the track map.

Much-smaller hurricane Michael well to the east of Leslie is not
expected to cause much of an issue. It appears that storm will
likely be bypassed by Leslie's large circulation. Our experience
with hurricanes in close proximity is minimal so we will certainly
monitor it.

A. Wind.

Wind impacts from the actual circulation of Leslie are now expected
over Newfoundland and possibly Cape Breton. This is looking like a
Tuesday event in terms of winds. We will have a better idea of wind
speeds later after some assessment. Gusts at least to 100 km/h may
occur with the storm in Newfoundland.

B. Rainfall.

There is a fairly high likelihood of very heavy rainfall from the
merged front/hurricane over Nova Scotia, pei and Newfoundland.
Event-total rainfall of 100-150 millimetres (4 to 6 inches) seems
reasonable based on the computer models and experience with setups
like this in the past. Location of the heaviest rainfall will be
clearer a bit later. Rainfalls in this range - more likely over
Eastern Nova Scotia and Western Newfoundland - could lead to flooding
issues. We will have more information and interpretation in
subsequent bulletins.

C. Surge/waves.

Moderate surf conditions related to Leslie will persist along
south-facing coastlines of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland today and
Monday. Heavier surf conditions will develop as the storm approaches
Monday night and into Tuesday. Details will become clearer later.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

A large portion of the offshore marine district will be affected by
Leslie and combined front. Hurricane-force wind warnings may be
posted for Newfoundland waters by early Monday (for Tuesday).

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/FOGARTY

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Interesting little read from Friday ...

Article : The Weatherman Is Not a Moron

adapted from “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t”

Link
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I think this news has not been posted so far. The Global Hawk will fly to 91L in two days.


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SUN 09 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE NASA GLOBAL
HAWK MISSION AROUND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUSPECT AL91.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Later this month, Europe%u2019s newest meteorology satellite, MetOp-B, will blast into space from Baikonur Cosmodrome. For mission control teams at ESA, liftoff marks the start of 72 hours of intense focus during the mission%u2019s critical launch and early orbit phase.

MetOp-B is the second of three MetOp polar-orbiting satellites procured on behalf of Eumetsat, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, by ESA from a European industrial consortium led by Astrium.

The satellite is set for liftoff on a Soyuz rocket from Kazakhstan on 17 September, including instruments from the French space agency, CNES, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA.


http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1112689635/wea ther-satellite-space-090712/



They're either very brave or very stupid, considering how bad the Russian space program's failure rate has been lately.

Wouldn't it make more sense to hire a U.S. rocket? We almost never have a failure any more.
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Quoting Tango01:


What is the purpose of copying and pasting images without adding any comment? Besides being illegal (many of those images are copyrighted) I can see them from their source and even see there the comments that your posts are lacking.
And your point is...??
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FXCN31 CWHX 091800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
SUNDAY 09 SEPTEMBER 2012.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT, TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 62.2 W, ABOUT 125 NAUTICAL MILES OR 232 KM EAST OF
BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS (102 KM/H)
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 986 MB. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTH AT 9 KNOTS (17
KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 09 3.00 PM 32.5N 62.2W 986 55 102
SEP 10 3.00 AM 35.1N 61.4W 984 60 111
SEP 10 3.00 PM 38.3N 59.8W 980 65 120
SEP 11 3.00 AM 42.5N 57.6W 974 65 120
SEP 11 3.00 PM 47.6N 54.8W 972 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 3.00 AM 52.2N 49.6W 975 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 3.00 PM 57.2N 42.5W 978 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 13 3.00 AM 59.8N 31.1W 980 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 13 3.00 PM 60.9N 20.5W 983 55 102 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

CONVECTION REMAINS DEEP AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD NOW OVER WARMER WATER. THE FRONT OF CONCERN IS MOVING OVER
THE GULF STREAM NOW AND THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS AMPLIFYING AS EXPECTED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM.

B. PROGNOSTIC

FOR THIS PACKAGE WE KEEP TECHNICAL INFORMATION SIMPLE IN FAVOR OF MORE
DETAILED GENERAL AUDIENCE INFORMATION IN THE WOCN31. THE OVERALL
FORECAST RATIONALE IS THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY. A QUICK ASSESSMENT OF
NUMERICAL MODELS SHOWS MORE CONSISTENT EXPECTATION FOR LESLIE'S TRACK
WHICH WOULD BRING ITS CENTRE INTO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY. QPFS ARE SUGGESTING EVENT TOTALS OF 100-150 MM IN THE
MAXIMUM SWATH REGION OVER EASTERN MAINLAND NS AND WESTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM REG MODEL HAS A NEAR-250 MM MAXIMUM BETWEEN
SABLE ISLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA MAINLAND. WE WILL PROVIDE MORE ASSESSMENT
INFORMATION IN THE NEXT PACKAGE.


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
09/18Z 180 150 140 160 90 20 80 80 0 0 0 0
10/06Z 190 180 160 170 100 60 90 80 0 0 0 0
10/18Z 220 230 190 200 130 140 95 90 60 90 60 20
11/06Z 230 280 230 280 160 200 120 120 100 120 120 0
11/18Z 240 260 220 300 160 200 160 240 0 120 60 0
12/06Z 250 250 210 300 160 200 160 240 0 100 60 0
12/18Z 260 270 220 240 150 180 140 200 0 0 0 0
13/06Z 260 280 230 240 120 150 100 150 0 0 0 0
13/18Z 270 280 240 230 120 150 100 150 0 0 0 0


END/FOGARTY

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Quoting RTSplayer:
Help me remember this, weren't there 5 stall/slow moving systems this year?

I remember four:

Debby - stall
Isaac -stall
Leslie - stall
Michael - slow/stall



Wasn't there another one that stalled for a while, or was barely moving for like a day or two?


did Ernesto not have difficulties in the Caribbean Sea?
Member Since: August 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
Later this month, Europe's newest meteorology satellite, MetOp-B, will blast into space from Baikonur Cosmodrome. For mission control teams at ESA, liftoff marks the start of 72 hours of intense focus during the mission's critical launch and early orbit phase.

MetOp-B is the second of three MetOp polar-orbiting satellites procured on behalf of Eumetsat, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, by ESA from a European industrial consortium led by Astrium.

The satellite is set for liftoff on a Soyuz rocket from Kazakhstan on 17 September, including instruments from the French space agency, CNES, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA.


http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1112689635/wea ther-satellite-space-090712/



Instruments will include Radar Scatterometer

Resolution Summary Hi-res mode: 25 - 37 km, Nominal mode: 50 km
Swath Summary Continuous; 2 x 500 km swath width
Accuracy Summary Wind speeds in range 4 - 24 m/s: 2 m/s and direction accuracy of 20 deg

see
http://database.eohandbook.com/database/instrumen tsummary.aspx?instrumentID=308


Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5996
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25326
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


So are they thinking of 'sanding' the storms instead of the 'seeding' maybe?!


I wish they would stop trying to find ways to stop hurricanes.

We need hurricanes. Hurricanes help cool the earth. If we didn't have hurricanes we would end up like Mars.
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Help me remember this, weren't there 5 stall/slow moving systems this year?

I remember four:

Debby - stall
Isaac -stall
Leslie - stall
Michael - slow/stall



Wasn't there another one that stalled for a while, or was barely moving for like a day or two?
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Quoting JLPR2:
I find it hard to believe that this is just a 90mph hurricane.



It's poorly developed in the upper levels, because an upper level low is parked right on top of it.

Use the Northwest Atlantic satellite view and do the high level wind overlays.


Here


It's not going to get "major hurricane" type outflow like that.


If it wasn't as strong as it is now, they'd probably even re-classify it as "post tropical," because it's hybridizing a bit, I think.
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Quoting msphar:
Yay! Another northern storm - 91L

Surfs up!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36854
91L wish I could see it better...

Member Since: August 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


that would not work
but dusting them could
dust would absorb the moisture contend thus limiting the chance of a significant event if anything at all but there could be increase in electrical discharges from excess dust in the systems
as well many things could come into play
too conduct an experiment
it would have to be done on a storm
like mike that is to effect no land
ocean going storm


How much sand would you need to drop into the storm to make any kind of difference?

At the moment, I just do not see it being feasible.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36854
Quoting Dakster:


Slow weather day huh?

How about salt?


Probably.

I got the separation thing fixed just now, it needed another few tablespoons of oil.


I'm not sure if salt is the best thing, because I'm supposed to stay low sodium.


What I have now should be less fatty than the store brand dressing, and has no artificial flavors or preservatives, so it must be healthier.
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


So are they thinking of 'sanding' the storms instead of the 'seeding' maybe?!


that would not work
but dusting them could
dust would absorb the moisture contend thus limiting the chance of a significant event if anything at all but there could be increase in electrical discharges from excess dust in the systems
as well many things could come into play
too conduct an experiment
it would have to be done on a storm
like mike that is to effect no land
ocean going storm
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76. 7544
will the front die out before it digs south tia
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Quoting JLPR2:
I find it hard to believe that this is just a 90mph hurricane.


That's looking really good, could be higher.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Leslie still got the big eye.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31433
I find it hard to believe that this is just a 90mph hurricane.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We're not in an El Nino.


I was talking of El Nino modoki effects on the winter season.
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71. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting HurricaneDan:


B-e-a-utiful weather across much of the United States today, with at least 95% of the country having clear skies and pleasant temperatures today!


Everybody sounds so happy behind the front. Rain is evaporating as it hits ECFL.


Fresh OSCAT of Michael with an extratropical storm to the NNE.

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Quoting RTSplayer:
Hey guys, question.

What is supposed to go in a home made Italian Vinaigret?


I started with the left-over pickle juice from some bread and butter pickles, and did:

half oil
Half vinegar
minced onion
minced garlic
parsley
paprika
tsp. black pepper
a bit of sugar

It's a pint jar.

Shake it till it hurts.

It seems to be separating a bit more than the professional cooks on television, (Maybe my vinegar is too low of concentration,)and just doesn't quite have the "bite" I was looking for.

It's "okay" and everything, but just missing something.


Slow weather day huh?

How about salt?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


With El Nino around and being a modoki one will help this 2012-2013 winter season be a more colder one than last season.


We're not in an El Nino according to the CPC, which current anomalies support.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31433
by the next full moon
the firsts frosts
will be on the runes
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
September 07, 2012

PASADENA, Calif. - NASA has begun its latest hurricane science field campaign by flying an unmanned Global Hawk aircraft over Hurricane Leslie in the Atlantic Ocean during a day-long flight that began in California and ended in Virginia. With the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission, NASA for the first time will be flying Global Hawks from the U.S. East Coast.

The Global Hawk took off from NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., Thursday and landed at the agency's Wallops Flight Facility on Wallops Island, Va., today at 8:37 a.m. PDT (11:37 a.m. EDT) after spending 10 hours collecting data on Hurricane Leslie. The month-long HS3 mission will help researchers and forecasters uncover information about how hurricanes and tropical storms form and intensify.

...

The first Global Hawk arrived Sept. 7 at Wallops carrying a payload of three instruments that will sample the environment around hurricanes. A second Global Hawk, scheduled to arrive in two weeks, will look inside hurricanes and developing storms with a different set of instruments. The pair will measure winds, temperature, water vapor, precipitation and aerosols from the surface to the lower stratosphere.

"The primary objective of the environmental Global Hawk is to describe the interaction of tropical disturbances and cyclones with the hot, dry and dusty air that moves westward off the Saharan desert and appears to affect the ability of storms to form and intensify," said Scott Braun, HS3 mission principal investigator and research meteorologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/m/news/index.cfm?release= 2012-281


So are they thinking of 'sanding' the storms instead of the 'seeding' maybe?!
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Quoting HurricaneDan:


B-e-a-utiful weather across much of the United States today, with at least 95% of the country having clear skies and pleasant temperatures today!

I got partly cloudy skies but great temps (in MI).
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting LargoFl:


What is the purpose of copying and pasting images without adding any comment? Besides being illegal (many of those images are copyrighted) I can see them from their source and even see there the comments that your posts are lacking.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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