Leslie brushing Bermuda, heading for Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2012

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It's a wet, windy day on Bermuda today, where Tropical Storm Leslie is bringing high winds and heavy rain as the storm's core passes 120 miles (200 km) east of the island. At the Saint David's weather station on the east end of the island, Leslie brought sustained winds of 39 mph, gusting to 54 mph, at 12:30 pm AST today. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is over the island, and these rains will continue through most of the afternoon, and the Bermuda airport is closed until 4 pm AST. Satellite loops show that Leslie is a large storm with a huge eye 60 miles (100 km) in diameter, but the storm does not have an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar, taken at 12:43 AST.

Forecast for Leslie
As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become a Category 1 hurricane. The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 36% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Tuesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds are expected to extend outward from its center 160 miles to its northwest on Tuesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pound the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Leslie as seen by NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 9:20 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 60 mph. Bermuda is the yellow triangle at the left of the image. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 1
Hurricane Michael has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters east of Newfoundland in 3 - 4 days.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 9:40 am EDT Sunday September 9, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 91L) is 250 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The disturbance is large with plenty of spin, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to dry air. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that 91L will pass at least 500 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands late this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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564. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Rain rain and rain!!!
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Looks like more rain for T&T



Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
Quoting CaribBoy:
Lol glad to see everybody on here don't hate me. I liked some comments in response to mine.. so guys don't worry about me, people in my area are very well prepared and our buildings are generally certified for 150mph winds (and strong earthquakes by the way...). Though I'm not crazy, I don't want another Georges, Luis, Hugo, or Lenny... just a nice slow moving TS (definitely something more interesting than weak stuff like Ernesto, TD7 and Isaac .. as they crossed the Windwards.) or a cat 1 at most. And getting decent rainfalls from DECENT tropical waves would be nice too... as we DIDN'T EVEN GET A DROP SINCE EARLY AUGUST!!!

Even Ernesto and Isaac wasn't a storm rainmaker, due to the dust layer
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another partial of 91L
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
559. SLU
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF:

AL, 14, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 374W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,



hmmm ... 14-13-7-1 on the peak day of the season.

Not bad for an "el nino" year
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558. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT got a partial of 91L/14L
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
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556. Skyepony (Mod)
Michael...on windsat.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
Tropical Depression 14.
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554. JLPR2
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF:

AL, 14, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 374W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,


There we go, another one. Time for the N to form.
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ATCF:

AL, 14, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 374W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,
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Leslie
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
Quoting CaribBoy:


so true, very bored with these high latitude systems... and troughs!!!!!!
At last,someone to agree 100%
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NewEnglandExpress Why do the Feds waste our tax payer dollars by flying into tropical storms in the North Atlantic with no threat to the US?

Meteorological research would be sufficient cause. BUT the NOAA/NWS/NHC do not have and have never had scientific inquiry as their primary mission.
They operate under the Department of Commerce. That's right, their primary purpose for existence is and has always been to serve US business interests.

And the US has always been first&foremost a maritime trading nation. Which is why the US has always maintained a Navy FAR larger and with a FAR larger mission area than the size of the nation alone justifies or has ever justified: protection of US trade routes.
For the exact same reason, the NHC/JTWC/etc cover areas far outside of US territorial boundaries: protection of US overseas trade.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
want rain want rain want rain want rainnnn
wow i feel your brother its been really bad here in the virgin islands
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Don't start, Ted. Over two thousand good posts and one little post has a bad word in it?

Get over yourself. Don't sweat the little things like you always do, Bud.


If he was making a point, or a joke, I would understand and wouldn't report (I rarely report for foul language in that regards anyways) however, just spouting it out there is uncalled for.
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Seems like the last couple of waves, including Isaac had a low below and then the main wave was north. Isaac was influenced by that wave and eventually swallowed it. Looks like 91L will strengthen and pull away from it to the north.
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Just updated...

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want rain want rain want rain want rainnnn
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Quoting prcane4you:
Two fishes? What is the other thing below?


Part of the Monsoon Trough that is stretched across the ocean . I believe

Member Since: August 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
The big high has eroded and moved north and east.
Thus the recurve.
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541. Skyepony (Mod)
That huge front has flattened out. Central & SFL still in the deep throws of summer..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
537. Just flag and ignore, he'll be gone shortly from this blog I suspect.

Anyways, it appears that we will have TD14 shortly. Waiting for a renumber.
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 805 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND... AND ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1065 MILES
WEST OF THE AZORES.

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 855 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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No Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion at 8 a.m. this morning. Looks like somebody at the NHC didn't show up for work today.
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Quoting elvette:
91L quite the beast in rainbow ..bet its a fish

Two fishes? What is the other thing below?
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Nothing is a fish storm in tell it makes that turn in tell then keep a watchfull I. On it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114765
91L quite the beast in rainbow ..bet its a fish

Member Since: August 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
531. Skyepony (Mod)
Happy peak of season everyone!

Another close peak at Leslie.. click pic for loop. The little swirl in the center formed overnight. Can't see it on MIMIC, though you can see how it squared up a bit yesterday.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Taz...correct me if I am wrong, but isn't 91 the only invest number this season that has not made it to Depression status?



Yep it will likey get its turn today
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114765
Quoting Tazmanian:
I don't trest the mode runs right now they seem likey they have been slowly shifting more W


Taz...correct me if I am wrong, but isn't 91 the only invest number this season that has not made it to Depression status?
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Quoting K8eCane:
YAY everytrhing is a recurve
Maybe is the Bermuda Triangle syndrome.
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I don't trest the mode runs right now they seem likey they have been slowly shifting more W
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114765
Quoting lobdelse81:

Isn't there a wave that just came off(or is about to come off) the African coast? Maybe this low rider will be Oscar? thoughts?
I think GFS said that.Maybe two more waves to watch before September is over.
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YAY everytrhing is a recurve
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3076
Quoting prcane4you:
Maybe Oscar will be interesting to track.The others out to sea we go.

Isn't there a wave that just came off(or is about to come off) the African coast? Maybe this low rider will be Oscar? thoughts?
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521. JLPR2
Quoting prcane4you:
Anything in lower longitudes in the middle of the Atlantic is very interesting to track,not this one.


For me it is, like Michael was. I mean if it becomes anything higher than a cat 1 it will have my attention.
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Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Why do the Feds waste our tax payer dollars by flying into tropical storms in the north atlantic with no threat to the U.S. seems like a huge waste of money!!
Trying to justify someones paycheck!
There is so much greater waste that the federal government carries out besides studying the weather. In fact, in may be the only useful the federal governments has ever done :p
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Quoting Grothar:



91L has been removed from most sites. Usually it means they are about to declare a TD.


Yeah,and name it a fish.
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517. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

You gotta get a good laugh here once in a while. LOL


LOL ..Dont happen too often on here ....
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Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like 91L has a twin to the south, it will need to gain distance or absorb it to strengthen. In the meanwhile they will probably fight a little for dominance, with 91L having a clear advantage.

Anything in lower longitudes in the middle of the Atlantic is very interesting to track,not this one.
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515. beell

Quoting msphar:
Yeah, so long as one believes in the hook scenario. Paint me a sceptic though. If they are wrong about the speed they might be wrong about the place where the hook starts occurring.


Faster might imply an earlier turn since a blocking ridge to the north would not have time to rebuild behind the trough over the western Atlantic.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.