Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bayview:
I just wanted to report wind gusts of 70 MPH+ in Cedar Run, New Jersey at 7:30PM tonight. Highest recorded on my Vantage Pro weather station was 74MPH!!
Very humbling for me, as I think this has been my highest ever here---even higher than Hurricane Irene! I saw it was getting dark/black out there---almost black clouds and then woooosh, but no rain with it.

Well...at least this cold front is the broom that's swept out ex-Isaac...and is gonna sweep out Leslie...Michael...and maybe 91L.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 446 Comments: 3623
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


Our area has only had heavy rain at sporadic times but nothing severe with thunderstorms..there is a line heading to my area though right now..I dont like the fact that we have to deal with these at night..



in wilmington myself and i dont like dealing with tnese at night either
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just wanted to report wind gusts of 70 MPH+ in Cedar Run, New Jersey at 7:30PM tonight. Highest recorded on my Vantage Pro weather station was 74MPH!!
Very humbling for me, as I think this has been my highest ever here---even higher than Hurricane Irene! I saw it was getting dark/black out there---almost black clouds and then woooosh, but no rain with it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrsBoomerNC:


Non-event here in Chapel Hill. Several watches/warnings issued, but only a few rumbles of thunder and a brief shower. No wind.

When I used to live in Raleigh....that's how most "severe" events seemed to end up...that is except for April 16, 2011....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 446 Comments: 3623
I'm pretty sure that Michael could fit his entire structure into Leslie's "eye". Should be interesting to see them interact near Newfoundland.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5535
Quoting palmettobug53:
Evening, folks.

ncstorm, what general area are you located in?


Im in Wilmington
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14612
Quoting LargoFl:
NC you folks ok up there with these storms so far?.................


Non-event here in Chapel Hill. Several watches/warnings issued, but only a few rumbles of thunder and a brief shower. No wind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
451. palmettobug53
11:58 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Evening, folks.

ncstorm, what general area are you located in?
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24993
450. NCHurricane2009
11:56 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting BDADUDE:


Leslie

She looks really odd on infrared...with that big ol' eye and ragged storms lopsided to the left. It would be better for Bermuda if the storms were lopsided to the right...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 446 Comments: 3623
449. ncstorm
11:52 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
NC you folks ok up there with these storms so far?.................


Our area has only had heavy rain at sporadic times but nothing severe with thunderstorms..there is a line heading to my area though right now..I dont like the fact that we have to deal with these at night..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14612
448. LargoFl
11:49 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
well aussie and the night crew will be here sooner or later..have a good night folks and stay safe out there, guess its florida's turn tomorrow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
447. LargoFl
11:47 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I used to live in the Raleigh area....(now I don't live there anymore)...therefore let NCStorm answer this one (that's probably who u were askin in the first place)

...though I did warn my family in Raleigh about these storms today...
ok thanks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
446. LargoFl
11:47 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
445. NCHurricane2009
11:46 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
NC you folks ok up there with these storms so far?.................

I used to live in the Raleigh area....(now I don't live there anymore)...therefore let NCStorm answer this one (that's probably who u were askin in the first place)

...though I did warn my family in Raleigh about these storms today...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 446 Comments: 3623
444. LargoFl
11:45 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
443. LargoFl
11:43 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
735 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

NCZ096-099-109-SCZ053-090030-
BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND BRUNSWICK-INLAND HORRY-
735 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HORRY...BRUNSWICK...BLADEN
AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 735 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM WHITEVILLE TO OLD DOCK TO BETHEL...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE WHITEVILLE...ASH...BETHEL...
BUGHILL...CARVERS...CHADBOURN...CHERRY GROVE...CLARENDON...COUNCIL...
CRUSOE ISLAND...EXUM AND FREELAND.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
442. NCHurricane2009
11:43 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:





90L is gone

90L was on its death-bed when I wrote that discussion very early this morning (hence that discussion has some last words on it)...but yes now its gone...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 446 Comments: 3623
441. LargoFl
11:41 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
NC you folks ok up there with these storms so far?.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
440. BDADUDE
11:40 PM GMT on September 08, 2012


Leslie
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602
439. LargoFl
11:39 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION NEAR A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
on the 5pm discussion they said leslie is moving into warmer waters and probably would return to a hurricane again..we'll see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
438. FLWeatherFreak91
11:38 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting wxmod:
North Pacific today. MODIS
there is no denying
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
437. ncstorm
11:38 PM GMT on September 08, 2012


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14612
436. Tazmanian
11:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I did my 100th detailed update of the 2012 Atlantic season this morning...which of course is action packed with info on Leslie...Michael...90L...the eastern Atlantic tropical wave (91L)...and more. I keep doing them because of positive feedback...so let me know what you think too (if you have ideas to make them better)...

Working on the 101st post...now I made it to the triple digits...yay!





90L is gone
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
435. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:36 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION NEAR A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
434. LargoFl
11:36 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NCC183-090200-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FF.W.0047.120908T2309Z-120909T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
709 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

* AT 702 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLOODING OVER WAKE
COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WAKE COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS THREATENED WITH FLOODING INCLUDE APEX... RALEIGH...
GARNER... AND CARY... INCLUDING SWIFT CREEK AND CRABTREE
CREEK.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. MANY
ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS IN THE AREA WILL QUICKLY FLOOD. WHEN
ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
433. LargoFl
11:33 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
432. NCHurricane2009
11:33 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Since the season's halfway over, what's eveyones opinion on a hurricane still hitting the east coast? I say 2/10


Going on a limb...I say 0/10...the deflecting troughs are getting stronger...especially if we head into El Nino...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 446 Comments: 3623
431. LargoFl
11:32 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
..not much for central florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
430. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
Ok, This is 96mph wind on video...


Guy with Anemometer gets 96mph.



This is supposedly Isaac, but some of the posters are saying it's a hoax and that it's actually from Dolly.

This is MIGHT be as strong as what we ACTUALLY got in Katrina in Springfield, LA, for an hour or two at the peak.

Official weather station doesn't matter to me, I know what I saw.

Clearly the "70 to 80" claim is nothing compared to this, and we got an anemometer reading.

That was Hurricane Dolly at South Padre Island in 2008.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
429. wxmod
11:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
North Pacific today. MODIS
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1742
428. NCHurricane2009
11:30 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
I did my 100th detailed update of the 2012 Atlantic season this morning...which of course is action packed with info on Leslie...Michael...90L...the eastern Atlantic tropical wave (91L)...and more. I keep doing them because of positive feedback...so let me know what you think too (if you have ideas to make them better)...

Working on the 101st post...now I made it to the triple digits...yay!
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 446 Comments: 3623
427. BA
11:30 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
Ok, This is 96mph wind on video...


Guy with Anemometer gets 96mph.



This is supposedly Isaac, but some of the posters are saying it's a hoax and that it's actually from Dolly.

This is MIGHT be as strong as what we ACTUALLY got in Katrina in Springfield, LA, for an hour or two at the peak.

Official weather station doesn't matter to me, I know what I saw.

Clearly the "70 to 80" claim is nothing compared to this, and we got an anemometer reading.


I don't think "hoax" is the proper term, that is footage from South Padre during Dolly though.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
426. LargoFl
11:29 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
We will definitely get some rain tonight. There is a small line of showers about three hours away from the coast, it plenty more should develop as the evening progresses. Expect somme heavier activity by sunrise moving in. The front will stall over the Tampa bay area tomorrow afternoon, keeping rain showers around til Monday.

ok i sure hope so, i can use some good rain around here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
425. StormHype
11:26 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting 1441114:
I will say 6/10 east coast strike of two storms.


LOL.... ok
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1200
423. wxchaser97
11:23 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
Ok, This is 96mph wind on video...


Guy with Anemometer gets 96mph.



This is supposedly Isaac, but some of the posters are saying it's a hoax and that it's actually from Dolly.

This is MIGHT be as strong as what we ACTUALLY got in Katrina in Springfield, LA, for an hour or two at the peak.

Official weather station doesn't matter to me, I know what I saw.

Clearly the "70 to 80" claim is nothing compared to this, and we got an anemometer reading.

What 70-75mph can do, my street in July of 2010.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
422. MAweatherboy1
11:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
High fire danger for the next few days.



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7638
421. RTSplayer
11:16 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Ok, This is 96mph wind on video...


Guy with Anemometer gets 96mph.



This is supposedly Isaac, but some of the posters are saying it's a hoax and that it's actually from Dolly.

This is MIGHT be as strong as what we ACTUALLY got in Katrina in Springfield, LA, for an hour or two at the peak.

Official weather station doesn't matter to me, I know what I saw.

Clearly the "70 to 80" claim is nothing compared to this, and we got an anemometer reading.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
420. Jedkins01
11:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting wxgeek723:


Ehhh. I was placed under a Moderate Risk and I don't even think the weather I've seen today warrants a See Text.


a See Text... lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7305
419. Charmeck
11:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:


Have 4 more cells ready to move into Charlotte and that seems to be the end.Link
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
418. CosmicEvents
11:10 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Since the season's halfway over, what's eveyones opinion on a hurricane still hitting the east coast? I say 2/10
.
Current odds.
From now to Nov.30
Hurricane East Coast.....16/1
Tropical Storm EC.............7/2
Prop bet hurricane landfall Ogonquit, Me. to Canadian border...5000/1*

.
.
.
.

.
.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5535
417. wxchaser97
11:04 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting wxgeek723:


Ehhh. I was placed under a Moderate Risk and I don't even think the weather I've seen today warrants a See Text.

Most areas in the moderate risk saw severe weather, but not everyone always gets severe weather.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
416. MAweatherboy1
11:01 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting wxgeek723:


Ehhh. I was placed under a Moderate Risk and I don't even think the weather I've seen today warrants a See Text.

Where are you at? The vast majority of the mod. risk area got hit pretty good... There are always local exceptions but overall the event went as expected.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7638
415. wxchaser97
10:59 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The MJO should return by the start of next month, just in time for the start of Caribbean TC season.


That will give added moister for any storm to work with, going to be interesting.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
414. wxgeek723
10:57 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Lot of damage reports, a very well forecasted event by the SPC today.



Ehhh. I was placed under a Moderate Risk and I don't even think the weather I've seen today warrants a See Text.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3486
413. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:56 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
412. Civicane49
10:54 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
411. Civicane49
10:54 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Since the season's halfway over, what's eveyones opinion on a hurricane still hitting the east coast? I say 2/10


2/10.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.