Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


If that doesn't work, just scream until it has passed. It won't help the storm, but you will feel better.


OH MY GOD I'M GONNA DIE! OH MY GOOOOOOOD!
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Quoting ncstorm:
the nogaps takes 90L off the east coast and misses leslie as the other models have it merging with leslie and then brings it back towards the east coast with another system behind it..and yes I know its the nogaps..

Now I've seen it all from this model!.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Yep, I'm here now. Anyone care to fill me in where the hot spots are right now?


Hi, Aussie. Well, 90L has finally been declared to be a dead player. Leslie is looking healthier and Michael is also doing well. Both are headed for Greenland. 91L still looks like developing TS. Two waterspouts/tornadoes hit NYC, so that's the big news of the day. The huge cold front is still making its way eastward and, so far, it looks like it hasn't been too bad in terms of severe weather. The front made it through Central AL about 2 pm with about 15 minutes of rain. It's still 79 here, so the cooler air has yet to arrive.

That's about all I know. :)
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the nogaps takes 90L off the east coast and misses leslie as the other models have it merging with leslie and then brings it back towards the east coast with another system behind it..and yes I know its the nogaps..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14604
Post #494, there's no line of severe storms bearing down on Tampa Bay, what radar are you looking at?
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Quoting Grothar:


still looking like one to curve up and go North.

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Quoting Grothar:


Jed, if a really bad storm comes your way, go into a closet or bathroom. If that doesn't work, just scream until it has passed. It won't help the storm, but you will feel better.


True dat.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

When I used to live in Raleigh....that's how most "severe" events seemed to end up...that is except for April 16, 2011....


Here in Durham, we had flooded streets and some big trees down.
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In the 40,s tonight here on the plateau..I love it....
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Quoting Jedkins01:



I will try but it will be a tough call, I don't think my house is rated for this stuff. lol


Jed, if a really bad storm comes your way, go into a closet or bathroom. If that doesn't work, just scream until it has passed. It won't help the storm, but you will feel better.
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storms look like they are gettin ready to be rght on top of us in wilmington nc
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Quoting LargoFl:
well aussie and the night crew will be here sooner or later..have a good night folks and stay safe out there, guess its florida's turn tomorrow

Yep, I'm here now. Anyone care to fill me in where the hot spots are right now?
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Quoting icmoore:


LOL stay safe!



I will try but it will be a tough call, I don't think my house is rated for this stuff. lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7303
Quoting Swede38:

or Sweden?


Our Norwegian Mountains keep you Swedes safe.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Guise its time to hunker down! A monumental line of thunderstorms is screaming into Tampa Bay, we are doom!


LOL stay safe!
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Grothar. If you look at what is going on behind 91L,there is still good stuff in there that may do some noise down the road.


If you read my blog I wrote on Sep 4, I told the blog about both. j/k :)
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Guise its time to hunker down! A monumental line of thunderstorms is screaming into Tampa Bay, we are doom!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7303
Quoting palmettobug53:
ic, you're so right. Sso many times I watch fronts/storm lines heading our way and by the time they reach us, it fizzles out. On the other hand, sometimes they hit and hit hard.

I'm expecting that tail end of that line to hit sometime tonight. Since I'm deaf, if it hits after I head to bed, unless the roof collapses, I won't know about it! It's a blessing and a curse.


LOL bug we will be in the same boat I am half deaf and use ear plugs to help me sleep (insomnia) so I won't hear a thing either.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Quoting yonzabam:


Greenland probably. Or maybe Spitzbergen.

or Sweden?
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ic, you're so right. So many times I watch fronts/storm lines heading our way and by the time they reach us, it fizzles out. On the other hand, sometimes they hit and hit hard.

I'm expecting that tail end of that line to hit sometime tonight. Since I'm deaf, if it hits after I head to bed, unless the roof collapses, I won't know about it! It's a blessing and a curse.
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Quoting palmettobug53:
That's a rather scary image, ic


Like we all know, you never really know :) when it comes to weather. Sometimes things build up unexpectedly or die down but so far so good! We will have to wait to see what tomorrow brings :)
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Quoting MrsBoomerNC:


Non-event here in Chapel Hill. Several watches/warnings issued, but only a few rumbles of thunder and a brief shower. No wind.

close TO YOU IN nchapel hills
Cheers
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I live down Hwy 133 in Mallory Creek. We have some lightening toward the southwest, but nothing yet. Looks like some storms heading this way. Love night storms! Grew up in Omaha Nebraska watching storms come in from the southwest. It was beautiful! Miss the flatlands.
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19:17 GMT
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
Quoting aspectre:
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneLeslie for 8Sept6pmGMT
All times in GMT. BDA is Bermuda
The southernmost kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 5th day as a NamedStorm
The next kinked line north traces Leslie's path on its 6th day
The middle kinked line north traces Leslie's path on its 7th day
The next kinked line north traces Leslie's path on its 8th day
The top kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 9th day
5th day: Leslie travelled 088miles(141kilometres) @ 3.65mph(05.88km/h) over 141,103metres
6th day: Leslie travelled 053miles(086kilometres) @ 2.22mph(03.58km/h) over 085,829metres
7th day: Leslie travelled 062miles(100kilometres) @ 2.58mph(04.15km/h) over 099,528metres
8th day: Leslie travelled 032miles(052kilometres) @ 1.35mph(02.17km/h) over 051,979metres
9th day: Leslie travelled 113miles(181kilometres) @ 4.70mph(07.56km/h) over 181,360metres
8Sept.6pm: Leslie moved 48miles(78kilometres) @ 8.03mph(12.93km/h) over 077,581metres within a span of 6hours
The southernmost dot on the longest line is H.Leslie's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
7Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 143miles(230kilometres)East of Bermuda
8Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage over Bermuda (bottom,left,BDAdumbbell)
8Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 60miles(96kilometres)ENEast of Bermuda (right,dumbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie was heading for passage 75miles(120kilometres)East of Bermuda (left,dumbbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie was heading for a 9Sept.11pm passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda in ~1day3hours from now (when this was posted

Copy&paste 32.392n62.2w, 32.249n64.854w, 32.57n63.653w-32.572n63.393w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 23.6n62.7w- 23.8n62.8w- 24.1n62.7w- 24.5n62.5w- 24.8n62.5w, 24.8n62.5w- 25.0n62.6w- 25.1n62.7w- 25.3n62.8w- 25.5n62.8w, 25.5n62.8w- 25.8n62.7w- 26.1n62.5w- 26.2n62.4w- 26.3n62.4w, 26.3n62.4w- 26.5n62.2w- 26.5n62.2w- 26.6n62.2w- 26.7n62.2w, 26.7n62.2w- 27.2n62.2w- 27.4n62.3w- 27.8n62.4w- 28.3n62.5w, 28.3n62.5w-29.0n62.5w, 28.3n62.5w-32.387n62.5w, 32.368n64.647w-32.387n62.5w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Can we please get an update from you on whatever this is? Its been hours since you posted one.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Many people were caught off guard outside and were caught in it.


Glad you're okay, Wash...
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No change in 91L.

AL, 91, 2012090900, , BEST, 0, 145N, 249W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


Wow,what a difference in the position between Best Track and SSD dvorak.

09/0000 UTC 16.0N 25.2W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic
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That's a rather scary image, ic
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Many people were caught off guard outside and were caught in it.
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a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Well had some very gusty winds(highest was 55mph)with very heavy rain.Some small branches did snap off.A funnel cloud was spotted in Fair fax V.A and was confirmed by the NWS.The cell then traveled northeast and another sighting was reported in Prince Gorges county in Forestville.It never touched down thank goodness.Seems the tornado shield in D.C has worked again.Didn't have power for 30 minutes but it returned.can't say the same for some other parts...
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Quoting wxmod:
Arctic sea ice still plummeting


Over 20% below the old record low. Where will it stop this year? It is really looking like an ice free late summer Arctic Ocean in just 3 years.

One good thing to think of. Since the sun is so low in the sky on this date most of the radiation will bounce off the water almost as well as it would bounce off the sea ice. Very little heating going on.
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By NBC News staff and wire services

Updated at 7:50 p.m. ET:

Two tornadoes touched down in New York City late Saturday morning, one in Queens and another in Brooklyn, causing damage and frightening startled residents.

Two possible tornadoes also were reported later Saturday in the Washington, D.C., area as strong winds and heavy rains plowed through the area, leaving tens of thousands without electricity as a severe weather cold front spanned much of the East Coast.

An EF0 tornado made landfall in the Breezy Point section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens at approximately 11 a.m., according to the National Weather Service. The 70 mile per hour winds hurled sand and debris in the air, downed multiple trees and power lines, moved cars and damaged property.

About five minutes later, an EF1 tornado touched down in Canarsie, Brooklyn, the National Weather Service confirmed. The 110 mile per hour winds leveled trees and power lines and damaged homes.


video at:

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/08/137477 57-2-tornadoes-touch-down-in-nyc-neighborhoods?lit e


Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
storms havent gotten to my area yet. went ahead and showered early because i dont immerse myself in water when there is lightening
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Hi Grothar. If you look at what is going on behind 91L,there is still good stuff in there that may do some noise down the road.
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Quoting LargoFl:
NC you folks ok up there with these storms so far?.................
The storms "skipped" over my area... meaning it reformed to different location. I only got heavy rain shower from earlier in afternoon with no winds. Non-event as usual in Raleigh/Garner/Clayton area.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7912
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

When I used to live in Raleigh....that's how most "severe" events seemed to end up...that is except for April 16, 2011....
Yup... that's when two EF3 went 5 miles from my home to north and south.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7912
No change in 91L.

AL, 91, 2012090900, , BEST, 0, 145N, 249W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Beg pardon, Taz, LesbonTemps. Thought that image posted by civicane was 90L. Been away from the loops for a while.
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Quoting palmettobug53:
90L does look like it's forming up.


Hardly. It's history.
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Quoting palmettobug53:
90L does look like it's forming up.



there is no 90L
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Ok, This is 96mph wind on video...


Guy with Anemometer gets 96mph.



This is supposedly Isaac, but some of the posters are saying it's a hoax and that it's actually from Dolly.

This is MIGHT be as strong as what we ACTUALLY got in Katrina in Springfield, LA, for an hour or two at the peak.

Official weather station doesn't matter to me, I know what I saw.

Clearly the "70 to 80" claim is nothing compared to this, and we got an anemometer reading.


That's Brian Osburn (Oz) in Hurricane Dolly, 2008. Here's the original:

Link
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90L does look like it's forming up.
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Leslie and Michael:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Grothar:

No doubt in my mind this will become Nadine...and if we get Oscar after that...this will be the first time to get past the "N" name on this list of names...finally...

FYI...this list was used in 2006, 2000, 1994, 1988, 1982. This is one of the six of the rotating-modern-day naming list that began in 1979. From 1950 and 1978...I believe the naming list was more random and mostly female names...and storms were not officiallly named before 1950...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The MJO should return by the start of next month, just in time for the start of Caribbean TC season.

There will still be plenty of toasty water south of Cuba too.
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Ok, nc, that gives me an idea of where to watch the radar. Keep your head down and stay safe. I don't like to weather these things at night, either.
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462. wxmod
Arctic sea ice still plummeting
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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