Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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561. maeko
Quoting KoritheMan:


You know what we call people that make claims without evidence? Simpletons. At least, that's what I call them.

It's so funny the inane things people can come up with.


What does 'simpleton' mean?
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Quoting maeko:


WoW talk about a Choo-Choo Train! Just LOOK at all that rolling out of Africa!

All soon to be turning around and attacking Spain by the looks of things. The recurve has been working well this season.
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Quoting NoloContendere:
LOL. I love all of these inane "ice free inx years" posts. Guess you missed the part where there was a storm that broke up ice so it didn't show on satellite it didn't melt overnight.


You're right, it didn't melt overnight. It's been melting for decades now. There has not been a storm for decades. The storm earlier this summer played a role, but without the significant warming of the Arctic Ocean and melting of multiyear ice, the storm's effect would have been greatly reduced.

I have strong suspicions that those actually following the arctic sea ice didn't "[miss] the part where there was a storm that broke up the ice." They also probably didn't miss the part where we know that the storm couldn't melt the millions of cubic feet of ice that we are missing.
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Gotcha, FlWeatherFreak91. Was read out of context.(Responding to post #548)
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Quoting unknowncomic:
That is what has been missing this season. No powerhouses. The storms have been having trouble getting their act together...to the point of accusations of a govt. conspiracy to secretly a alter the storms.


You know what we call people that make claims without evidence? Simpletons. At least, that's what I call them.

It's so funny the inane things people can come up with.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Love the climate right now it looks like fall down here.

Still waiting for the cooler air down here in central AL. It's down to the low 60's in north AL but it's still 77 and humid here. The cool air seems to be taking its time getting here.
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555. maeko
Quoting Chicklit:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N22W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 14N23W. THE WAVE/LOW ARE WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE LOW CENTER EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MID/LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 24W-27W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW/WAVE MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15-20 KT.


WoW talk about a Choo-Choo Train! Just LOOK at all that rolling out of Africa!
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I guess you guys aren't picking up on the local sarcasm lol. We were expecting a bit more weather right now than we're getting.

I think everyone was expecting more than what they got.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wouldn't count on it.


Funny you should psot that graph now, TA. The general instability numbers have been low now for months in the Southeast as well. Even when we were getting pounded with heavy rain and thunderstorms from ex-Isaac/pre-90L, the vertical shear and CAPE didn't support the weather we actually experiencing. I don't know what will actually happen the rest of the season, but something strange is going on. Our only major developed north of 30 degrees, and storms that were in supposedly good environments did nothing. Very odd.
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Love the climate right now it looks like fall down here.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
In about a week or 2 all eyes will probably turn to the SW Caribbean. Should be 1-2 powerhouses coming out of that region to wind up the season.
That is what has been missing this season. No powerhouses. The storms have been having trouble getting their act together...to the point of accusations of a govt. conspiracy to secretly a alter the storms.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


I couldn't see anything on Tampa Radar.



Well I was applying sarcasm^7 to the comment if that helps ;)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
Quoting indianrivguy:
me too, gnight all!

yeah, over and out!
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Quoting originalLT:
Post #494, there's no line of severe storms bearing down on Tampa Bay, what radar are you looking at?
I guess you guys aren't picking up on the local sarcasm lol. We were expecting a bit more weather right now than we're getting.
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.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
Quoting sar2401:

In theory, something should happen, either in the Gulf or the SW Caribbean. After what I've seen with Ernesto and his many lives, I'm not impressed so far, but things should change.

Isaac never got his act together until just before landfall when it was to late. He never became vertically stacked. If he had of became vertically stacked earlier than he did, He might not of made it into the GOM.
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me too, gnight all!
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TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N22W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 14N23W. THE WAVE/LOW ARE WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE LOW CENTER EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MID/LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 24W-27W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW/WAVE MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15-20 KT.
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Quoting AegirsGal:
Front came through here in Haverhill, MA. For as much action as some have gotten from it, we got a bit of rain and almost no wind, and no lightning to speak of. Rather anticlimactic given what others have experienced with this same system.

Glad to hear it. It was pretty much the same down here too. Looks like there were some severe thunderstorms and a few weak tornadoes in VA and NYC, but most areas seem to have gotten off with very little severe weather compared to what was forecast yeaterday. The bulk shear and CAPE numbers were both diving when I looked earlier today, so I was hoping this would't turn out too bad.
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Backing away from the keyboard for the night. Everyone take care.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
In about a week or 2 all eyes will probably turn to the SW Caribbean. Should be 1-2 powerhouses coming out of that region to wind up the season.

I wouldn't count on it.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
Quoting NoloContendere:
LOL. I love all of these inane "ice free inx years" posts. Guess you missed the part where there was a storm that broke up ice so it didn't show on satellite it didn't melt overnight.



but it did melt. The first storm caused a big loss, churned up the water and brought warmer water up. This storm will do something similar.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
In about a week or 2 all eyes will probably turn to the SW Caribbean. Should be 1-2 powerhouses coming out of that region to wind up the season.

In theory, something should happen, either in the Gulf or the SW Caribbean. After what I've seen with Ernesto and his many lives, I'm not impressed so far, but things should change.
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Quoting goalexgo:
It may be absorbed by a tiny, tiny remnant of Jose somewhere near Finland in 3 weeks.


Or maybe Helene's remnant is still wandering around somewhere.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey, thanks for the quick update. Glad this event hasn't been as bad as it was looking when I went to be last night.


You're welcome. Of the two "tonadoes" in NYC, one was clearly a waterspout that moved on land and the other was supposedly an F1, although the video I've seen looks like much less than an F1. To read the news, you'd think they were both F5's. I wonder if it has anything to do with mst major news networks being located in NYC? :)

The front basically washed out over us. Had some ominious looking clouds, a few 20 mph wind gusts, and some heavy rain for about 15 minutes. That was it.

Former 90L died with a whimper. I thought it might cause some problems for the folks in the Florida Panhandle but it just gave them some additional rain. I hope it's finally done for, although the NOGAPS wants to bring it to life again in the Atlantic. If that happens, I'm going to drive to Miami and strangle the first person I see at the NWS. Probably be the receptionist with my luck. :)
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Dry air and cool temps in gulf will limit any big storms forming,Isaac was a perfect example.Cat 1 or lower about all for rest of season.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

90L was on its death-bed when I wrote that discussion very early this morning (hence that discussion has some last words on it)...but yes now its gone...
It may be absorbed by a tiny, tiny remnant of Jose somewhere near Finland in 3 weeks.
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LOL. I love all of these inane "ice free inx years" posts. Guess you missed the part where there was a storm that broke up ice so it didn't show on satellite it didn't melt overnight.

Quoting percylives:


Over 20% below the old record low. Where will it stop this year? It is really looking like an ice free late summer Arctic Ocean in just 3 years.

One good thing to think of. Since the sun is so low in the sky on this date most of the radiation will bounce off the water almost as well as it would bounce off the sea ice. Very little heating going on.
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Front came through here in Haverhill, MA. For as much action as some have gotten from it, we got a bit of rain and almost no wind, and no lightning to speak of. Rather anticlimactic given what others have experienced with this same system.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hold on tight, it's going to get quiet bumpy.




im holdin on aussie
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Quoting K8eCane:
thunderboomers and downpours beginning in wilmington nc

Hold on tight, it's going to get quiet bumpy.

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Quoting AussieStorm:


I couldn't see anything on Tampa Radar.

I think he was kidding, can't read radar, wishcasting, or is in some other city called Tampa. :)
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In about a week or 2 all eyes will probably turn to the SW Caribbean. Should be 1-2 powerhouses coming out of that region to wind up the season.
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Quoting windshear1993:
so im like done with the tropics this year ill see u guys and gals in 2013!! things seem to be winding down

Ok, bye.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
Quoting Grothar:
recurve not a done deal yet.
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Quoting windshear1993:
so im like done with the tropics this year ill see u guys and gals in 2013!! things seem to be winding down


Not hot enough for ya?
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Quoting sar2401:


Hi, Aussie. Well, 90L has finally been declared to be a dead player. Leslie is looking healthier and Michael is also doing well. Both are headed for Greenland. 91L still looks like developing TS. Two waterspouts/tornadoes hit NYC, so that's the big news of the day. The huge cold front is still making its way eastward and, so far, it looks like it hasn't been too bad in terms of severe weather. The front made it through Central AL about 2 pm with about 15 minutes of rain. It's still 79 here, so the cooler air has yet to arrive.

That's about all I know. :)

Hey, thanks for the quick update. Glad this event hasn't been as bad as it was looking when I went to be last night.
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thunderboomers and downpours beginning in wilmington nc
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Quoting windshear1993:
so im like done with the tropics this year ill see u guys and gals in 2013!! things seem to be winding down

LOL, I guess you think this season is a bust also. We are not even at the peak of the season yet and you think it's over. Ok bye bye, Enjoy your winter, don't freeze.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Guise its time to hunker down! A monumental line of thunderstorms is screaming into Tampa Bay, we are doom!


I couldn't see anything on Tampa Radar.
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Quoting wxmod:
Arctic sea ice still plummeting


The further it goes down, the greater the "recovery" we'll see in the next year or two!
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so im like done with the tropics this year ill see u guys and gals in 2013!! things seem to be winding down
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Quoting Grothar:


Jed, if a really bad storm comes your way, go into a closet or bathroom. If that doesn't work, just scream until it has passed. It won't help the storm, but you will feel better.


Yeah and one more thing if you could record it so we can hear you scream like a girl :)
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4141
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Nature ain't no mother to me.Especially after what "It's" thrown my way this year..I should of know this years weather was going to be whacky when we had 3 thunderstorms in January with humidity..yes moderate to high humidity levels in January..we've had a thunderstorm in all months this year with the worst of them being in June...
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Quoting Swede38:

close TO YOU IN nchapel hills
Cheers


Well, howdy neighbor. There's a few of us here, mostly Fran survivors :)
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Heavy rains associated with Leslie are approaching to Bermuda.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now I've seen it all from this model!.


yeah, its the only model that has it missing Leslie..I will say though the CMC was showing this earlier this week but had it coming back towards GA/SC
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Quoting ncstorm:
the nogaps takes 90L off the east coast and misses leslie as the other models have it merging with leslie and then brings it back towards the east coast with another system behind it..and yes I know its the nogaps..



How would I know that the NOGAPS would try to resurrect 90L?
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Quoting Grothar:


If that doesn't work, just scream until it has passed. It won't help the storm, but you will feel better.


OH MY GOD I'M GONNA DIE! OH MY GOOOOOOOD!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.