Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, being a fool isn't on the far end of intelligence. Foolishness is the act of making a poor decision in spite of intelligence. To be a fool would be to go along with a bad decision even though you have the intelligence and knowledge to know that decision is wrong. Foolishness and pride are often best buddies.

When an intelligent person makes a very poor decision, it is foolishness, when a well, not so smart person makes a bad decision "WHELL HEYYY GUISE WOUTCHH THIS(beer in hand)" its ignorance.


Funny, but true. In the early 90's I was speaking with a woman to held a doctorate in Psychology and Abnormal Behavior. Educated and spoke quite well. She tried to explain to us that she believed certain Asian countries were killing off their elderly population. That is where the term Euthanasia came from. Say the world slowly three times.

I know I joke a lot, but this is a true story. We were all stunned. She is still teaching at a university.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26557
I do have to wonder why most of the development this year has occurred in the subtropics. I would say that it's consistent with El Nino, but current SST anomalies do not seem to support that; any El Nino is quite weak, and more Modiki.
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Quoting sar2401:

Send me his name and e-mail address and I'll send him a link for my patented Tin Foil Hat. If you also buy one, you'll have a better understanding of chem trails and red suns.

This made me lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32349
Quoting popartpete:
Re: Dr. Masters' mention of the evening weather in the northeast, there were cloud formations tonight that looked like possible tornado clouds off to the north and east of us. I'd post a photo, but it won't let me.

One other thing: I know sometimes we get heated on here and there are some diverging opinions, but something I heard in person today really took the cake. Some person, who never went to college but professes to be a scientist, that I know was trying to tell me that the cranked up ocean from T.S. Leslie on the Jersey Shore was because she was coming this way overnight, and the reason was because of AN UNSEEN SECOND RED SUN that somehow is now controlling our weather. This same person things that the U.S. government controls the weather by chemical trains from planes. A commercial passenger jet will pass over, and he'll point at the exhaust fumes and say, "See, See"! I guess it takes all kinds.

Send me his name and e-mail address and I'll send him a link for my patented Tin Foil Hat. If you also buy one, you'll have a better understanding of chem trails and red suns.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Quoting popartpete:
Re: Dr. Masters' mention of the evening weather in the northeast, there were cloud formations tonight that looked like possible tornado clouds off to the north and east of us. I'd post a photo, but it won't let me.

One other thing: I know sometimes we get heated on here and there are some diverging opinions, but something I heard in person today really took the cake. Some person, who never went to college but professes to be a scientist, that I know was trying to tell me that the cranked up ocean from T.S. Leslie on the Jersey Shore was because she was coming this way overnight, and the reason was because of AN UNSEEN SECOND RED SUN that somehow is now controlling our weather. This same person things that the U.S. government controls the weather by chemical trains from planes. A commercial passenger jet will pass over, and he'll point at the exhaust fumes and say, "See, See"! I guess it takes all kinds.


Sounds reasonable to me. Even in my previous reincarnations when I was Napolean, I thought the same thing.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26557
Quoting Grothar:
Isaac Part trois!


possible,,, cut off low in the GOM, has happened before.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


A person who is felt to be deficient in judgment, good sense, or intelligence; a fool



Actually, being a fool isn't on the far end of intelligence. Foolishness is the act of making a poor decision in spite of intelligence. To be a fool would be to go along with a bad decision even though you have the intelligence and knowledge to know that decision is wrong. Foolishness and pride are often best buddies.

When an intelligent person makes a very poor decision, it is foolishness, when a well, not so smart person makes a bad decision "WHELL HEYYY GUISE WOUTCHH THIS(beer in hand)" its ignorance.
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Atlantic ACE continues to climb rapidly and will likely surpass 70 units tomorrow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32349
Re: Dr. Masters' mention of the evening weather in the northeast, there were cloud formations tonight that looked like possible tornado clouds off to the north and east of us. I'd post a photo, but it won't let me.

One other thing: I know sometimes we get heated on here and there are some diverging opinions, but something I heard in person today really took the cake. Some person, who never went to college but professes to be a scientist, that I know was trying to tell me that the cranked up ocean from T.S. Leslie on the Jersey Shore was because she was coming this way overnight, and the reason was because of AN UNSEEN SECOND RED SUN that somehow is now controlling our weather. This same person things that the U.S. government controls the weather by chemical trains from planes. A commercial passenger jet will pass over, and he'll point at the exhaust fumes and say, "See, See"! I guess it takes all kinds.
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Quoting Grothar:


If you scream loudly enough, you won't be able to hear the wind.


That's true! Also if I open my windows it will allow air to flow freely so the wind won't be so angry and then it won't scream so loud...
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
.
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Quoting sar2401:

Gro, don't be talking like that. Planes fly to Norway every day...and I'm armed! :)


lol.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26557
Quoting Jedkins01:



Thank you, I will try my best, and I figure if I close my eyes at least the wind velocity will be zero since I can't see which direction its blowing...


If you scream loudly enough, you won't be able to hear the wind.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26557
Quoting windshear1993:
i hope 91l becomes a beautiful major hurricane and goes out to see i refuse to follow another chris and kirk lol

I really don't think you have a say..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32349
Quoting Grothar:
Isaac Part trois!


Gro, don't be talking like that. Planes fly to Norway every day...and I'm armed! :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Quoting Grothar:


Jed, if a really bad storm comes your way, go into a closet or bathroom. If that doesn't work, just scream until it has passed. It won't help the storm, but you will feel better.



Thank you, I will try my best, and I figure if I close my eyes at least the wind velocity will be zero since I can't see which direction its blowing...
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Isaac Part trois!

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26557
i hope 91l becomes a beautiful major hurricane and goes out to see i refuse to follow another chris and kirk lol
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Quoting Dakster:


If you know Origami, go buy a roll of tin foil at the supermarket.


Is that served with rice?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26557
Quoting sar2401:

No problem then, check back occasionally and we'll let you know when a major is bearing down on NC. :)
its a good thing i dont live on the coast i live in charlotte nc and we barely get bad floods from tropical systems but ill be back ocasionally to see if something ominous is outhere im not about to follow another ernesto helene and leslie yawnnnnn
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Quoting Dakster:


If you know Origami, go buy a roll of tin foil at the supermarket.


Sadly I don't. It's always been fascinating to me though.
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Quoting windshear1993:
im just doubting we will see anything significant just small weak boring systems we barely got a major hurricane..hurricane michael got lucky lol

No problem then, check back occasionally and we'll let you know when a major is bearing down on NC. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Leslie:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Dakster:


If you know Origami, go buy a roll of tin foil at the supermarket.

No, homemade tin foil hats are not as strong as my patented Tin Foil Hat. You'd just be wasting $2.00 at the grocery store, and then there's all that complicated folding and stuff. Send me $59.99 for my patented Tin Foil Hat and be assured you're getting the real thing, not some sloppy homemade job. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Quoting wxmod:
Arctic sea ice still plummeting
Let them eat earthcakes ...






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Quoting windshear1993:
im just doubting we will see anything significant just small weak boring systems we barely got a major hurricane..hurricane michael got lucky lol


Blame it on global warming...

I, for one, am happy I do not have to deal with a Major Hurricane...
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Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie for 9Sept12amGMT
All times in GMT. BDA is Bermuda
The kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 9th day as a NamedStorm
The southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
8Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage over Bermuda (bottom,left,BDAdumbbell)
8Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 60miles(96kilometres)ENEast of Bermuda (right,dumbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 75miles(120kilometres)East of Bermuda (left,dumbbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda
9Sept.12am: TS.Leslie was heading for a 10Sept.12:30am passage 96miles(154kilometres)East of Bermuda in ~21&1/2.hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste 32.249n64.854w, 32.57n63.653w-32.572n63.393w, 32.387n62.5w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 26.7n62.2w- 27.2n62.2w- 27.4n62.3w- 27.8n62.4w-28.3n62.5w, 28.3n62.5w-29.0n62.5w, 29.0n62.5w-29.7n62.6w, 29.0n62.5w-32.557n63.023w, 32.368n64.647w-32.557n63.023w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sounds good to me. I want a tin foil hat!

OK then, good man. Use your credit card and go to www.simpletons.com. You should receive your patented Tin Foil Hat in about three weeks. We can have it to you by Monday for the nominal extra charge of $19.99, so you can better understand what's happening in a timely manner. You'll have to excuse me now, I need to run to the bank and make a deposit from all the money the suck....er, customers have been sending to get their patented Tin Foil Hat. Supplies are limited, so act fast! :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Quoting AussieStorm:

LOL, I guess you think this season is a bust also. We are not even at the peak of the season yet and you think it's over. Ok bye bye, Enjoy your winter, don't freeze.
im just doubting we will see anything significant just small weak boring systems we barely got a major hurricane..hurricane michael got lucky lol
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Sounds good to me. I want a tin foil hat!


If you know Origami, go buy a roll of tin foil at the supermarket.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You know what we call people that make claims without evidence? Simpletons. At least, that's what I call them.

It's so funny the inane things people can come up with.

I blame the Aliens.
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Quoting maeko:


Maybe that will be good for the wildfires Spain has been having?

I read those were caused by all the ATM's in Spain overheating at once as Spainards try to get evey Euro thay can before Spain reverts to the peseta again....but I could be wrong. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF LESLIE NOW MOVING OVER BERMUDA...
11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 8
Location: 30.1°N 62.6°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

...MICHAEL FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MONDAY...
11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 8
Location: 33.4°N 42.4°W
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
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Quoting sar2401:

No, no, Kori, it was HAARP. You can look it up. It's a giant machine, funded by the Illuminati, that can do anything from alter weather to make milk go sour in your fridge. It's a well known fact, except to people like you. I can help you understand better though. Just buy one of my patented Tin Foil Hats for the low, low price of $59.99 and it will all become clear. If you act within the next two hours, I'll throw in a Ginsu knife for free. :)


Sounds good to me. I want a tin foil hat!
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Blog update!
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Quoting Tazmanian:




You no if they wanted too go read it they could go to the nhc site and and it will be right there waiting for the. Just saying. But I Gus's it is all so nic too post it on the blogs has well so they can see it here too


Well that's true, but I was bored. :P
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Quoting maeko:


What does 'simpleton' mean?


A person who is felt to be deficient in judgment, good sense, or intelligence; a fool
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Quoting KoritheMan:
Because no one else has bothered to do it:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 090235
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
LESLIE HAS AGAIN BECOME ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND A RECENT CIMSS SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE WAS 58 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/7. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER LESLIE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A MUCH
FASTER NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AS LESLIE UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ENOUGH THAT IT
IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FOLLOW IT AND MAINTAIN ANY CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...THE 72-120 HR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SLOWER PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MUCH FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

LESLIE CURRENTLY HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND
IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WARM WATER/LIGHT WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND ISSUES WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ARGUE AGAINST RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN 6 HR AGO...SO THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
75 KT IN 48 HR. THIS PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE
BY 72-96 HR...WITH LESLIE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THIS PROCESS.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE
WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 30.1N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 33.2N 61.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 35.3N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 38.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 46.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 49.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 51.5N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




You no if they wanted too go read it they could go to the nhc site and and it will be right there waiting for the. Just saying. But I Gus's it is all so nic too post it on the blogs has well so they can see it here too
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Whoa... Showers are strengthening while moving ashore here. Kind of odd for this time of day.

It's just 90L's death rattle. Enjoy the rain while you can get it.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
570. maeko
Quoting KoritheMan:


Someone who's ignorant. It's a nicer way of saying "you're an idiot".


Oh...for some reason I thought it was something worse than 'idiot'...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You know what we call people that make claims without evidence? Simpletons. At least, that's what I call them.

It's so funny the inane things people can come up with.

No, no, Kori, it was HAARP. You can look it up. It's a giant machine, funded by the Illuminati, that can do anything from alter weather to make milk go sour in your fridge. It's a well known fact, except to people like you. I can help you understand better though. Just buy one of my patented Tin Foil Hats for the low, low price of $59.99 and it will all become clear. If you act within the next two hours, I'll throw in a Ginsu knife for free. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207

000
WTNT43 KNHC 090236
TCDAT3

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

MICHAEL HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS
BEEN DECREASING. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FINAL T-NUMBERS
HAVE COME DOWN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 85 KT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT CI
NUMBER GIVEN BY THE UW-CIMSS ADT. MICHAEL COULD FLUCTUATE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THEIR CURRENT STATES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
MICHAEL BY 48 HOURS...AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 72 HOURS. THEREFORE...FASTER
WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THE INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE MICHAEL TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY DAY 4...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
IF THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...AS
SHOWN BY THE GFS...OR THE COLD FRONT TRAILING LESLIE...AS SHOWN BY
THE ECMWF.

MICHAEL HAS MAINTAINED ITS MOTION OF 335/5 KT...BUT THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LOW-/MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
IS INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TO THE WEST THAN IT HAS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY AT 36 AND 48 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION
IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS/ECMWF/TVCA CLUSTERING AT THOSE
TIMES. THE MODELS COME BACK TO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 72 HOURS ONCE
MICHAEL IS ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH...EVEN THOUGH THAT IS A CASE WHERE YOU WOULD
NORMALLY EXPECT TO SEE BIGGER TIMING DIFFERENCES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 33.4N 42.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 33.8N 42.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 33.9N 43.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 34.1N 45.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 35.2N 46.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 42.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Because no one else has bothered to do it:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 090235
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
LESLIE HAS AGAIN BECOME ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND A RECENT CIMSS SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE WAS 58 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/7. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER LESLIE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A MUCH
FASTER NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AS LESLIE UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ENOUGH THAT IT
IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FOLLOW IT AND MAINTAIN ANY CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...THE 72-120 HR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SLOWER PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MUCH FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

LESLIE CURRENTLY HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND
IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WARM WATER/LIGHT WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND ISSUES WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ARGUE AGAINST RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN 6 HR AGO...SO THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
75 KT IN 48 HR. THIS PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE
BY 72-96 HR...WITH LESLIE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THIS PROCESS.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE
WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 30.1N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 33.2N 61.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 35.3N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 38.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 46.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 49.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 51.5N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Whoa... Showers are strengthening while moving ashore here. Kind of odd for this time of day.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I think everyone was expecting more than what they got.



When is hurricane. Season for you guys?
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564. maeko
Quoting sar2401:

All soon to be turning around and attacking Spain by the looks of things. The recurve has been working well this season.


Maybe that will be good for the wildfires Spain has been having?
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Quoting sar2401:

All soon to be turning around and attacking Spain by the looks of things. The recurve has been working well this season.


It wasn't around earlier in the season. Definitely not to the extent it was in 2011 or 2010.
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Quoting maeko:


What does 'simpleton' mean?


Someone who's ignorant. It's a nicer way of saying "you're an idiot".
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561. maeko
Quoting KoritheMan:


You know what we call people that make claims without evidence? Simpletons. At least, that's what I call them.

It's so funny the inane things people can come up with.


What does 'simpleton' mean?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.