Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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We are getting pounded here in Gainesville Fl right now!
Thunder is shaking the house...
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Current dewpoint is 46!

Our summer night dewpoints are usually 70-74
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 920 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE AZORES.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE WAVE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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Here is a different view of Leslie.

If your asked To log in, the user name and password are both guest.
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latest surface skin temp °C

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
nice surge of fall like air

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
Quoting KoritheMan:
I do have to wonder why most of the development this year has occurred in the subtropics. I would say that it's consistent with El Nino, but current SST anomalies do not seem to support that; any El Nino is quite weak, and more Modiki.


I'm thinking that it's the remnants of El Nino as it does take time for El Nino to slowly step down. Just for some evidence, Ernesto in early August was completely unable to strengthen all the way up until pretty much Mexico due to strong trade winds. While Isaac had similar problems, he still managed to get near hurricane status before landfall on Haiti, so conditions are slowly getting better.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I do have to wonder why most of the development this year has occurred in the subtropics. I would say that it's consistent with El Nino, but current SST anomalies do not seem to support that; any El Nino is quite weak, and more Modiki.


It's El Nino...lol. Made a post about it yesterday. The Atlantic has characteristics of El Nino, not of neutral or La Nina conditions. The Pacific may not be fully ready to be in an absolute El Nino, but anomalies have been warm enough to alter the Atlantic season.
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Not much change for Michael, but it is still moving north-northwestward.

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Quoting KoritheMan:
No one can beat the sarcasm of Grothar's post in post 612, though. Definitely one for the Guiness book.

I just now saw that, that is good.
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It's noted for the record that yet another low of tropical origins has found it's way to North Florida, even though Isaac had to loop 1500 miles around to have one of his parts wound up there. Somebody dropped a powerful magnet on Lake City this year.
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No one can beat the sarcasm of Grothar's post in post 612, though. Definitely one for the Guiness book.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm used to Cody being sarcastic. I'm not used to you being sarcastic. Can't a fault a man for a weakness, can you? :)

You're correct, Cody has been at WU for a while and I've only been posting for about 2 months.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm also finally beginning to write my tropical blog,once again since it is too late with out my forecast graphic.


Cool.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I think the second one sounds really detailed/ more official. Saying the first one was sarcasm.


I'm used to Cody being sarcastic. I'm not used to you being sarcastic. Can't a fault a man for a weakness, can you? :)
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Still doesn't have a solid core and she needs more convection.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I knew Cody was being sarcastic, but I wasn't sure about you. :P

I'm also finally beginning to write my tropical blog,once again since it is too late with out my forecast graphic.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I knew Cody was being sarcastic, but I wasn't sure about you. :P

He always is, at least in chat it seems. I knew the second one is better and wanted to see if you thought I was serious or not.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I think the second one sounds really detailed/ more official. Saying the first one was sarcasm.


I knew Cody was being sarcastic, but I wasn't sure about you. :P
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think you misunderstand. I'm not looking for an excuse to sound wordy. I'm looking for an excuse to be in-depth.

I think the second one sounds really detailed/ more official. Saying the first one was sarcasm.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

As TA said obviously the first one, the second one does sound good.


I think you misunderstand. I'm not looking for an excuse to sound wordy. I'm looking for an excuse to be in-depth, since as I understand it, that's what a disseration is.
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Quoting Skyepony:
A shallow earthquake hit southwestern China on Friday, killing at least 24 people, state media said. 150 people were also hurt in the quake that hit Yunnan and Guizhou provinces. An official from the Yunnan provincial government earthquake office, who like many Chinese bureaucrats would not give his name, earlier said 20 people had died. The quake destroyed or damaged 20,000 homes. Buildings in rural areas in China are often constructed poorly. In 2008, a severe earthquake in Sichuan province, just north of Yunnan, killed nearly 90,000 people, with many of the deaths blamed on poorly built buildings, including schools. The U.S. Geological Survey said the magnitude 5.6 quake hit at a depth of 9.8 kilometers (6.1 miles). Shallower earthquakes often cause more damage than deeper ones.


It always makes me so sad when something like a 5.6 quake causes so much death and destruction, as that's not a very large quake, even at a shallow depth. And in China, where there has been so much growth, that so many still live in buildings unsuitable. Even though I know the mere mention of universal standards prob shouts as evil socialism to many Americans. I can understand complacency in places that get the odd mid-continental shelf earthquake..but not in places prone to them or places in the vincinity. I dunno if I'm making my point clear, as is nearly 6am and about to go to bed (I work late shifts on the weekends, ok! LOL)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


What looks better on a post-season summation blog:

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The likely cause of this is dry air and wind shear."

or

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The reasons for this are not immediately clear, but could be related to a stronger than normal Bermuda/Azores ridge (Fig 3). In addition, 500 mb height anomalies off the eastern US show that, for a fourth consecutive year, a mean trough was, in general, draped off the east coast. This sort of pattern could have allowed for a large number of the upper lows seen across the deep tropics, such as the one that incapacitated Tropical Storm Joyce."

You tell me. :P

As TA said obviously the first one, the second one does sound good.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The first one obviously.


Wrong.
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Quoting Skyepony:
A shallow earthquake hit southwestern China on Friday, killing at least 24 people, state media said. 150 people were also hurt in the quake that hit Yunnan and Guizhou provinces. An official from the Yunnan provincial government earthquake office, who like many Chinese bureaucrats would not give his name, earlier said 20 people had died. The quake destroyed or damaged 20,000 homes. Buildings in rural areas in China are often constructed poorly. In 2008, a severe earthquake in Sichuan province, just north of Yunnan, killed nearly 90,000 people, with many of the deaths blamed on poorly built buildings, including schools. The U.S. Geological Survey said the magnitude 5.6 quake hit at a depth of 9.8 kilometers (6.1 miles). Shallower earthquakes often cause more damage than deeper ones.


On the Summary page Skye, the update shows 80 now confirmed dead..so sad..
Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


What looks better on a post-season summation blog:

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The likely cause of this is dry air and wind shear."

or

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The reasons for this are not immediately clear, but could be related to a stronger than normal Bermuda/Azores ridge (Fig 3). In addition, 500 mb height anomalies off the eastern US show that, for a fourth consecutive year, a mean trough was, in general, draped off the east coast. This sort of pattern could have allowed for a large number of the upper lows seen across the deep tropics, such as the one that incapacitated Tropical Storm Joyce."

You tell me. :P

The first one obviously.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Is this Leslie's eye coming into view of Bermuda radar??


Its either its eye or a close rain band.
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632. Skyepony (Mod)
A shallow earthquake hit southwestern China on Friday, killing at least 24 people, state media said. 150 people were also hurt in the quake that hit Yunnan and Guizhou provinces. An official from the Yunnan provincial government earthquake office, who like many Chinese bureaucrats would not give his name, earlier said 20 people had died. The quake destroyed or damaged 20,000 homes. Buildings in rural areas in China are often constructed poorly. In 2008, a severe earthquake in Sichuan province, just north of Yunnan, killed nearly 90,000 people, with many of the deaths blamed on poorly built buildings, including schools. The U.S. Geological Survey said the magnitude 5.6 quake hit at a depth of 9.8 kilometers (6.1 miles). Shallower earthquakes often cause more damage than deeper ones.
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Is this Leslie's eye coming into view of Bermuda radar??

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.
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Quoting Grothar:


Funny, but true. In the early 90's I was speaking with a woman to held a doctorate in Psychology and Abnormal Behavior. Educated and spoke quite well. She tried to explain to us that she believed certain Asian countries were killing off their elderly population. That is where the term Euthanasia came from. Say the world slowly three times.

I know I joke a lot, but this is a true story. We were all stunned. She is still teaching at a university.

I think I remember having her for one of my Abnormal Psych classes because she was....so abnormal. :)
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Quoting sar2401:

That's his problem then. With one of my patented Tin Foil Hats, he will soon be living large as a chem trail expert on the lecture circuit. Those army camo hats with the metal plates are very poor imitations of my patented Tin Foil Hat.


lmao

ahahaha
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Quoting popartpete:
Trouble is he ALREADY HAS ONE!! On the hottest day of the summer, he wears a camo army hat with a metal underneath part. His friend lets him live in the back storage room in his building -no heating or air conditioning- and he spends his time hacking off my internet connection looking up doomsday sites and trying to explain to me his outlandish theories!

That's his problem then. With one of my patented Tin Foil Hats, he will soon be living large as a chem trail expert on the lecture circuit. Those army camo hats with the metal plates are very poor imitations of my patented Tin Foil Hat.
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625. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting pcola57:


I got some gusty winds when that front came trough Skye..not sure of mph but it trashed (more like beat it up than trashed) a nice azalea I had planted last week.. :(


Looks like steady 25mph in Ceder Key right now.

It should recover. Hope it's not so bad you're resetting the root ball & trimming broken limbs.
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Quoting Grothar:
I guess some of the earlier bloggers may have been right. I don't see any evidence of the models recurving 91L.


No, nothing to see there....just keep moving.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's nothing there worth looking for. We've not gotten any notable tropical cyclones in the tropics because there has been an abundance of dry air, wind shear, and fast trade winds.


What looks better on a post-season summation blog:

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The likely cause of this is dry air and wind shear."

or

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The reasons for this are not immediately clear, but could be related to a stronger than normal Bermuda/Azores ridge (Fig 3). In addition, 500 mb height anomalies off the eastern US show that, for a fourth consecutive year, a mean trough was, in general, draped off the east coast. This sort of pattern could have allowed for a large number of the upper lows seen across the deep tropics, such as the one that incapacitated Tropical Storm Joyce."

You tell me. :P
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Quoting Skyepony:


I got some gusty winds when that front came through Skye..not sure of mph but it trashed (more like beat it up than trashed) a nice azalea I had planted last week.. :(
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621. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting sar2401:

Send me his name and e-mail address and I'll send him a link for my patented Tin Foil Hat. If you also buy one, you'll have a better understanding of chem trails and red suns.
Trouble is he ALREADY HAS ONE!! On the hottest day of the summer, he wears a camo army hat with a metal underneath part. His friend lets him live in the back storage room in his building -no heating or air conditioning- and he spends his time hacking off my internet connection looking up doomsday sites and trying to explain to me his outlandish theories!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I want to look beyond that.

There's nothing there worth looking for. We've not gotten any notable tropical cyclones in the tropics because there has been an abundance of dry air, wind shear, and fast trade winds.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Uhm...dry air and wind shear?


I want to look beyond that.
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Oh and really Dr M..."Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days"

Geesh, Michaels been our best looking system this year (size matters not!). To give him such a bleak send off!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I do have to wonder why most of the development this year has occurred in the subtropics. I would say that it's consistent with El Nino, but current SST anomalies do not seem to support that; any El Nino is quite weak, and more Modiki.

Uhm...dry air and wind shear?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Quoting Grothar:


She tried to explain to us that she believed certain Asian countries were killing off their elderly population. That is where the term Euthanasia came from. Say the world slowly three times.
*gasp*

Oh my...
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Quoting popartpete:
Re: Dr. Masters' mention of the evening weather in the northeast, there were cloud formations tonight that looked like possible tornado clouds off to the north and east of us. I'd post a photo, but it won't let me.

One other thing: I know sometimes we get heated on here and there are some diverging opinions, but something I heard in person today really took the cake. Some person, who never went to college but professes to be a scientist, that I know was trying to tell me that the cranked up ocean from T.S. Leslie on the Jersey Shore was because she was coming this way overnight, and the reason was because of AN UNSEEN SECOND RED SUN that somehow is now controlling our weather. This same person things that the U.S. government controls the weather by chemical trains from planes. A commercial passenger jet will pass over, and he'll point at the exhaust fumes and say, "See, See"! I guess it takes all kinds.


Ugh, I hate tornadic looking clouds! Well, near me anyway ;p

You know, people like that just depress me. Because I've known people who didn't go to college or uni (or couldn't really) for various reasons, but studied things on their own out of love for the subject. They were just as knowledgeable as someone who'd gone to college, and sometimes even more so. But people like that, give others a bad name, who have independently studied without degree. But if your premise is paranoia or such and not learning a subject out of love and interest...I guess it's a bit suspect...especially if calling yourself a scientist still! But it does give independent 'actual' learning a bad rap :(
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.
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I guess some of the earlier bloggers may have been right. I don't see any evidence of the models recurving 91L.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, being a fool isn't on the far end of intelligence. Foolishness is the act of making a poor decision in spite of intelligence. To be a fool would be to go along with a bad decision even though you have the intelligence and knowledge to know that decision is wrong. Foolishness and pride are often best buddies.

When an intelligent person makes a very poor decision, it is foolishness, when a well, not so smart person makes a bad decision "WHELL HEYYY GUISE WOUTCHH THIS(beer in hand)" its ignorance.


Funny, but true. In the early 90's I was speaking with a woman to held a doctorate in Psychology and Abnormal Behavior. Educated and spoke quite well. She tried to explain to us that she believed certain Asian countries were killing off their elderly population. That is where the term Euthanasia came from. Say the world slowly three times.

I know I joke a lot, but this is a true story. We were all stunned. She is still teaching at a university.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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