Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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Nothing like being woken up by lightning hitting my house, needless to say I am wide awake as of now.
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Quoting aspectre:
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneLeslie for 9Sept12amGMT
All times in GMT. BDA is Bermuda
The kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 9th day as a NamedStorm
The southernmost dot on the longest line is H.Leslie's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
8Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage over Bermuda (bottom,left,BDAdumbbell)
8Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 60miles(96kilometres)ENEast of Bermuda (right,dumbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 75miles(120kilometres)East of Bermuda (left,dumbbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda
9Sept.12am: TS.Leslie was heading for a 10Sept.12:30am passage 96miles(154kilometres)East of Bermuda in ~21&1/2.hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste 32.249n64.854w, 32.57n63.653w-32.572n63.393w, 32.387n62.5w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 26.7n62.2w- 27.2n62.2w- 27.4n62.3w- 27.8n62.4w-28.3n62.5w, 28.3n62.5w-29.0n62.5w, 29.0n62.5w-29.7n62.6w, 29.0n62.5w-32.557n63.023w, 32.368n64.647w-32.557n63.023w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
This is so helpful. I cant begin to thank you enough.
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81 in WPB on Wednesday!!!!:)
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Link

Tampa radar.
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8 AM TWO stays at 40%.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.
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Quoting icmoore:
That line up north of me around Tarpon Springs is still a healthy one and looks to be beefing up :)
yeah from there down to palm harbor are really getting it pretty hard
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That line up north of me around Tarpon Springs is still a healthy one and looks to be beefing up :)
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
717 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FLZ043-048>052-091200-
POLK-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-
717 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL HERNANDO...EAST
CENTRAL PINELLAS...EASTERN PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHWESTERN POLK
AND SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TARRYTOWN TO
VENETIAN ISLES...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DADE CITY TO DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH...WILL
AFFECT TARRYTOWN...DADE CITY NORTH...DADE CITY...CARROLLWOOD...TOWN
N COUNTRY...BRANDON...PLANT CITY...AND NEW TAMPA...UNTIL 800 AM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 240 AND 266.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

&&
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Quoting trunkmonkey:



Fall is on the way, I'm saying this again, NO CANES in the CONUS this year.

What ever happend to the rocket fuel in the GOM?

IMO- Kinda like having tainted gas!

Boy I sure miss the debates, went well with my milk and cookies at night!


Do you mean a major hurricane? Otherwise there are a few folks in la/ms/al that might disagree with you.
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The EPAC wakes up again.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
RATHER DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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hopefully none of these tw dont develop and sneak under the weakness
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Looks like our friends in Canada need to be preparing for a hit from a Cat-1 hurricane..so far anyway
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Quoting icmoore:


Oh yeah there is plenty of that and I am a self admitted chicken when it comes to lightening :) Tarpon Springs is having a big line come inland that might slide down.
yes going to be one active storm day for us today til that front hopefully passes us, yesterday they were saying it might stall out over us here..we'll see what happens
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Quoting bappit:

We've had beaucoup storms so cyclogenesis is not a problem.


That's what I said.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..LOL, i sure rushed them too..lightning flashes everywhere lol..gee


Oh yeah there is plenty of that and I am a self admitted chicken when it comes to lightening :) Tarpon Springs is having a big line come inland that might slide down.
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Quoting LargoFl:
...GOOD Morning, got some good rain from that first line..geez all that lightning lol


Good morning to you too, indeed rainfall is very heavy and lightning pretty intense too. These cells are heavier/stronger than they look as usual due to a very tropical environment, PW is 2.2 to 2.4 inches and warm air extends high through the column, such a setup "fools" the radar into thinking activity is weaker than it is.

The problem is the local radar already has the upgrade but we don't get to see the change ourselves to the NWS radar until all are upgraded by sometime next year I think. The upgrade though should deal with what I call the tropical rain echo fade.
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Quoting icmoore:


LOL I rushed to get the dogs up and outside before the first storms and then I watched them pass to my left and right at N Reddington Beach and Treasure Island. Madeira Beach is in between and only 3 miles long :)

Good morning everyone.
..LOL, i sure rushed them too..lightning flashes everywhere lol..gee
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Quoting LargoFl:
...GOOD Morning, got some good rain from that first line..geez all that lightning lol


LOL I rushed to get the dogs up and outside before the first storms and then I watched them pass to my left and right at N Reddington Beach and Treasure Island. Madeira Beach is in between and only 3 miles long :)

Good morning everyone.
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still 40%.............A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N25W TO
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 15N27W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AROUND THE OCEANIC MONSOONAL
GYRE DESCRIBED BELOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 26W-31W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
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morning
quite a mess of convection within the MDR this morning. It appears that 91L is being pulled towards Leslie and Michael. The area i am concerned with this morning, is the area of disturbed weather in the ITCZ near 9n 38w . it could be quite possible of some type of pertubation breaking away and form into a cyclonic entity. there is some cyclonic turning ,in this vicinity, and the area should be watched closely for signs of tropical development.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
...GOOD Morning, got some good rain from that first line..geez all that lightning lol
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Quoting trunkmonkey:



Fall is on the way, I'm saying this again, NO CANES in the CONUS this year.

What ever happend to the rocket fuel in the GOM?

IMO- Kinda like having tainted gas!

Boy I sure miss the debates, went well with my milk and cookies at night!

I always grimaced at the rocket fuel cliche. Seems like part of a trend towards oversimplifying things.
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Quoting yonzabam:



Lack of vertical instability was suggested as the reason why last season's storms were duds. The same thing has been influencing this season's storms. I saw graphs on here which clearly showed that vertical instability throughout the hurricane zone was less than the average.

Dr. Masters mentioned that this year's lack of majors was equalled only by 1934 and 1936. On another of his blogs, he showed the 5 worst drought years in the US. 1934 was the worst, 1936 was the 4th worst and 2012 the 5th worst. Obviously, the drought, or climatological factors responsible for the drought, is inhibitng intensification, if not cyclogenesis.

We've had beaucoup storms so cyclogenesis is not a problem.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
latest surface skin temp °C




Fall is on the way, I'm saying this again, NO CANES in the CONUS this year.

What ever happend to the rocket fuel in the GOM?

IMO- Kinda like having tainted gas!

Boy I sure miss the debates, went well with my milk and cookies at night!
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE METRO ORLANDO AND PORT CANAVERAL AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRECEDE THIS ACTIVITY ANYWHERE
IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICKLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
STORMS MAY PRODUCE A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WHEN
PASSING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
WHERE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. THESE HEAVY
AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF STREETS AND OTHER LOW
LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
ELEVATED WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT
ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS FOR GULF...BAY...AND INLAND WATERS TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS MAY REACH CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA
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............almost here, tons of lightning in the distance,still no rain by me yet,getting breezy though, should be here soon
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Quoting Gearsts:
Wave on top of the ITCZ.


True but still lot of wave...
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......................Good Morning folks!..boomers in the distance so i guess its our day for the heavy rain and lightning etc..guess i'd better walk the dogs before all that gets here....
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Quoting HurricaneDan:


After the storm


weird man.... i saw the same orange tinged rainbow here.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


What looks better on a post-season summation blog:

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The likely cause of this is dry air and wind shear."

or

"Many of the tropical cyclones in 2012 did not undergo appreciable deepening in the tropics. The reasons for this are not immediately clear, but could be related to a stronger than normal Bermuda/Azores ridge (Fig 3). In addition, 500 mb height anomalies off the eastern US show that, for a fourth consecutive year, a mean trough was, in general, draped off the east coast. This sort of pattern could have allowed for a large number of the upper lows seen across the deep tropics, such as the one that incapacitated Tropical Storm Joyce."

You tell me. :P



Lack of vertical instability was suggested as the reason why last season's storms were duds. The same thing has been influencing this season's storms. I saw graphs on here which clearly showed that vertical instability throughout the hurricane zone was less than the average.

Dr. Masters mentioned that this year's lack of majors was equalled only by 1934 and 1936. On another of his blogs, he showed the 5 worst drought years in the US. 1934 was the worst, 1936 was the 4th worst and 2012 the 5th worst. Obviously, the drought, or climatological factors responsible for the drought, is inhibitng intensification, if not cyclogenesis.
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Quoting elvette:
waves on top of waves

Wave on top of the ITCZ.
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Just drove through some pretty nasty weather on my way home from work in Gainesville Florida.

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Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FLZ031-036-040-090715-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-MARION-
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
BRADFORD...ALACHUA AND NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 315 AM EDT...

AT 226 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND MICANOPY...GAINESVILLE...ARCHER...ROCHELLE...NEWNA NS
LAKE...GAINESVILLE AIRPORT...BROOKER...ORANGE HEIGHTS AND WALDO
THROUGH 315 AM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2946 8241 2948 8241 2948 8246 2951 8256
2953 8257 2954 8260 2995 8229 2976 8207
2943 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 238DEG 14KT 2965 8232

$$

PETERSON




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waves on top of waves

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We are getting pounded here in Gainesville Fl right now!
Thunder is shaking the house...
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.