Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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TS Leslie impacting Bermuda. Live stream












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Quoting sar2401:

According to the news story, there have been a number of tornadoes in the NYC area in the last five years, much higher than the one in ten years average. Seriously, though, you don't think the fact that the major news networks are all based in NYC has a tiny bit to do with the media coverage?


I agree with Nea, Sar. It's rare to have tornados in NYC. It's comparable to snow in Atlanta, it happens occasionally and when it does it's all over the news.
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What I'm wondering about this hurricane season is if we are going to see another 18hr rapid intensification from Tropical Depression to hurricane status. 2007 had Humberto and Lorenzo, 2008 had Gustav, 2009 had Ida, 2010 had Paula, 2011 had Rina all of which went from a tropical depression to a hurricane in around 16-18 hours.
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Bernews @bernewsdotcom
BELCO confirm 2 power outages thus far. One affected 125 customers & is fixed already, other affected 35: http://bernews.com/2012/09/sundays-live-blog-tropi cal-storm-leslie/

38m Bernews @bernewsdotcom
#Bermuda Airport to close until 4pm due to #TropicalStorm #Leslie http://bernews.com/2012/09/airport-to-close-until- 4pm-today-due-to-storm/



Leslie from Bermuda.... Live stream Link
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I suppose that's because there's an average of one tornado in NYC every ten years, while there are dozens in Alabama every year. It's no different than if, say, 8" of snow fell in Mobile; that would be the biggest local story of the year. But when that happens in Denver, it barely warrants a mention on the evening traffic report.

It's all relative...

According to the news story, there have been a number of tornadoes in the NYC area in the last five years, much higher than the one in ten years average. Seriously, though, you don't think the fact that the major news networks are all based in NYC has a tiny bit to do with the media coverage?
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Morning all. Woke up to 59 degrees, 90% humidity with a dewpoint of 56, absolutely beautiful. Hoping the humidity doesn't get me when I start raking up the pine needles under the pines in the front.
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Thanks SAR, that is more in line what I was guessing - even a bit further North and more west than that.
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Quoting hydrus:
Good thing Leslie got hung up out there, she was on her way to becoming a behemoth. A westward track would have proven deadly I believe.

I think that monster trough coming into the Atlantic from the east coast helped push Leslie off the east as well. I suspect that eastward trend will continue, sparing Labrador a direct hit.
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Quoting sar2401:
Geez, I know there was some damage from the two waterspouts/tornadoes in the NYC area, but you'd think this was a major storm with the wall-to-wall media coverage. This would never even make much local news, let alone national, if it happened in Alabama.
Killer tornados invade NYC
I suppose that's because there's an average of one tornado in NYC every ten years, while there are dozens in Alabama every year. It's no different than if, say, 8" of snow fell in Mobile; that would be the biggest local story of the year. But when that happens in Denver, it barely warrants a mention on the evening traffic report.

It's all relative...
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Quoting islander101010:
new keybd feel like forest gump being liberated


congratulations.on.your.new.key.board :-)
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Quoting msphar:
Where's the center of 91L? I see the CDO but the last fix showing 14.7 26.8 seems old. Looks like it is starting to climb Latitude a lot.

It looks like about 15n, 25w to me.
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SSD Dvorak numbers are up for 91L.

09/1200 UTC 15.0N 27.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic
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Quoting sar2401:

That's good to hear, considering that Bermuda was supposed to be reduced to bare rock this time last week. :) I thought Leslie was going miss Bermuda by about 100 miles so I think I was close. Going to the east side is even better. I've been to Bermuda several times to dive and, except for the prices of everything, it's a beautiful place. I've always been impressed with how well Bermuda is set up to handle tropical storms compared to what most people think of when you say tropical island.


Bermuda has 400 years of hurricane experience. Buildings are virtually all of stone with stone slate roofs. We all take it seriously and everyone works hard to secure their homes, boats and other property from damage. In the old days the warning was the roar of the ocean on the south shore, the normal clear blue water made opaque by the pink sand being washed out, and the trusted shark oil barometer. Nowadays the NHC prediction is almost a little too good as the island is battened down tight, and people have been preparing for over a week. However that is so much better than taking it too casually.
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Good morning. Michael's still a good looking storm, very large eye in relation to his overall size.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7293
Geez, I know there was some damage from the two waterspouts/tornadoes in the NYC area, but you'd think this was a major storm with the wall-to-wall media coverage. This would never even make much local news, let alone national, if it happened in Alabama.
Killer tornados invade NYC
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Quoting islander101010:
central atlantic vis. 91 will be another big one
Good thing Leslie got hung up out there, she was on her way to becoming a behemoth. A westward track would have proven deadly I believe.
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Where's the center of 91L? I see the CDO but the last fix showing 14.7 26.8 seems old. Looks like it is starting to climb Latitude a lot.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Take a photo and post it here. I would like to see what a scorch mark looks like. I know what burnt shoes look like after I was struck 30years ago.


I will when it's not pouring rain.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Hello Leslie....





lucky men in Bermuda... you have rain YOU!
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Quoting islander101010:
central atlantic vis. 91 will be another big one

Might be, although it's still a little early to tell. If it does a quick recurve, I don't think it's going to be another Leslie though.
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Quoting bdawobbles:
Hello Leslie....

G'day All
Bermuda has been spared again thanks to being such a small dot in the Atlantic.
I believe that the Bermuda radar is showing the left side of the COC, but there is no eye to speak off.
As expected winds have been relatively light with stronger gusts in squalls. Should increase as the day progresses but not to any destructive level.

That's good to hear, considering that Bermuda was supposed to be reduced to bare rock this time last week. :) I thought Leslie was going miss Bermuda by about 100 miles so I think I was close. Going to the east side is even better. I've been to Bermuda several times to dive and, except for the prices of everything, it's a beautiful place. I've always been impressed with how well Bermuda is set up to handle tropical storms compared to what most people think of when you say tropical island.
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central atlantic vis. 91 will be another big one
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Quoting zoomiami:


Not dumb - always start with the basics! Yes -- and I logged out and back in several times.

Done a cold reboot? Sometimes you get a screwed up cookie. Try a disk cleanup and remove all cookies and then log in again. Been down that road before too. :)
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Did you close your browser?


Yes -- I actually renewed last week, just figured it took them a few days to reset.

I sent an email -- that should do it.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Try sending a WU-Mail to WunderBlogAdmin


Thank you Aussie -- that's what I was looking for.
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Quoting islander101010:
looks like another massive system forming

Where at? I don't see anything that looks like it's going to massive, unless you're thinking 91L is going to be a big one.
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Quoting zoomiami:


Not dumb - always start with the basics! Yes -- and I logged out and back in several times.

Did you close your browser?
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Quoting sar2401:

Have you actually logged in? Sorry if that seems like a dumb question, but I've forgotten several times and seen the ads.


Not dumb - always start with the basics! Yes -- and I logged out and back in several times.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
717. Remnants of Isaac.
718. Near miss now that I've gone out and looked around, scorch marks on my grass though.

Scorch marks on the grass...yeah, that would be close enough for me. My near miss split a tree about 100 feet away clean down the middle. I don't know if it's just here or what but the cloud to ground lightning has seemed unusually vicious this year.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
717. Remnants of Isaac.
718. Near miss now that I've gone out and looked around, scorch marks on my grass though.

Take a photo and post it here. I would like to see what a scorch mark looks like. I know what burnt shoes look like after I was struck 30years ago.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Does anyone have the email for admin regarding the accounts? I can't seem to get rid of the advertising even after I renewed my account.

Thanks

Have you actually logged in? Sorry if that seems like a dumb question, but I've forgotten several times and seen the ads.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Does anyone have the email for admin regarding the accounts? I can't seem to get rid of the advertising even after I renewed my account.

Thanks

Try sending a WU-Mail to WunderBlogAdmin
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717. Remnants of Isaac.
718. Near miss now that I've gone out and looked around, scorch marks on my grass though.
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Does anyone have the email for admin regarding the accounts? I can't seem to get rid of the advertising even after I renewed my account.

Thanks
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looks like another massive system forming
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Hello Leslie....

G'day All
Bermuda has been spared again thanks to being such a small dot in the Atlantic.
I believe that the Bermuda radar is showing the left side of the COC, but there is no eye to speak off.
As expected winds have been relatively light with stronger gusts in squalls. Should increase as the day progresses but not to any destructive level.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The 00Z is WOW!!!

You don't actually believe those preciptation numbers do you? Just an example, there is no rain anywhere in the Southeast except for central FL.
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Mostly
Sunny
High: 91 °F
Quoting sar2401:
Good morning, fellow bloggers.
It's 63 degrees right now in central AL. I know that may not sound like a big deal to those of you in more northern climes, but it's the lowest temperature we've had since mid-June. I finally got to turn the A/C off and open the windows. It's sunny and going to be a beautiful day. I hope it's a good day for all of you too.
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Good morning, fellow bloggers.
It's 63 degrees right now in central AL. I know that may not sound like a big deal to those of you in more northern climes, but it's the lowest temperature we've had since mid-June. I finally got to turn the A/C off and open the windows. It's sunny and going to be a beautiful day. I hope it's a good day for all of you too.
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The 00Z is WOW!!!
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Quoting islander101010:
new keybd feel like forest gump being liberated

Glad to see you can now type like a regular guy again. I'm assuming you got it for your birthday, so Happy Birthday as well. :)
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Quoting charlestonscnanny:

Are those storms the remnants of Isaac or the front?

A mixture but basically the front. The front will eventually move through, but it's slowed way down over FL, so it will be another day at least before the storms end and drier air gets to central FL.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nothing like being woken up by lightning hitting my house, needless to say I am wide awake as of now.

Did it actually hit the house or a near miss? I'm hoping it was a near miss. I had one from pre-90L and it popped half the circuit breakers all the GFI outlets in the rig.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nothing like being woken up by lightning hitting my house, needless to say I am wide awake as of now.

Are those storms the remnants of Isaac or the front?
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Hello Leslie....




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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nothing like being woken up by lightning hitting my house, needless to say I am wide awake as of now.

Good morning Ted. Hope everything at your house is ok.
Good morning all. :)
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new keybd feel like forest gump being liberated
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Nothing like being woken up by lightning hitting my house, needless to say I am wide awake as of now.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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