Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wxchaser97:

I would hope that verified, better than last winter.

I'm already getting excited for winter... especially after the disappointment last year. It's hard to keep my mind fully on the tropics at this point, lol.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Another 6z GFS ensemble member, this one at 288 hours. This would bring some wintry weather a little sooner than usual...


I would hope that verified, better than last winter.
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Another 6z GFS ensemble member, this one at 288 hours. This would bring some wintry weather a little sooner than usual...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting will40:



WunderBlogAdmin



i dont even think wounderBlogAdmin is real



dr m him may be a better pick
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Re: The Weather/News discussion
Meteorological significance and news coverage do not match. Rare that they are even similar. Just the way it is.

For news, context rules. News outlets want to sell tickets. Yes, a city makes news. Whatever else is happening affects coverage. For example, the context of Cat 5 Rita, 2005, the "forgotten hurricane," was the K storm had hit. Again, most of you, I'll bet, can recite facts about the 2011 Spring tornadoes in Alabama and Joplin, but how about the EF 5, two high-end (190 mph) EF4s and multiple EF 3s that crossed Oklahoma one day in May? Forgotten also. Two days after Joplin, relatively few fatalities and no big city hit.

This latest severe system will be remembered for two EF0s, one a water spout that came ashore in New York, NY, and maybe for some damages near WA, DC, but not hardly for Friday's pure thunderstorm winds across the plains that caused the loss of four lives.

...

Interesting Leslie is forecast to be extratropical in 48 hrs or so. Not that that will lessen any potential impacts on Newfoundland.

Also interesting Michael is moving west.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Two of the 6z GFS ensemble members...




Well the first one has a strong hurricane very close to the US and a strong trough over the Great Lakes. The second one has a storm hitting the gulf coast. I don't like either of those ensembles.
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Latest NAM shows a low off FL SE coast at 84hrs.



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Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie for 9Sept12pmGMT
All times in GMT. BDA is Bermuda
The kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 9th day as a NamedStorm
The southernmost dot on the northernmost line is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position

The northernmost line is a straightline projection through TS.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
8Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 75miles(120kilometres)East of Bermuda
8Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda
(right,free-floating blob)
9Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 96miles(154kilometres)East of Bermuda
9Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 120miles(193kilometres)East of Bermuda (left,free-floating blob)
9Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie was heading for 4:20pm passage 130miles(210kilometres)East of Bermuda

Copy&paste 32.572n63.393w, 32.387n62.5w, 32.557n63.023w, 32.385n62.6w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 26.7n62.2w- 27.2n62.2w- 27.4n62.3w- 27.8n62.4w- 28.3n62.5w, 28.3n62.5w-29.0n62.5w, 29.0n62.5w-29.7n62.6w, 29.7n62.6w-30.5n62.6w, 29.7n62.6w-32.385n62.6w, 32.368n64.647w-32.385n62.6w, 30.5n62.6w-31.5n62.5w, 30.5n62.6w-32.224n62.427w, 32.368n64.647w-32.224n62.427w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
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Two of the 6z GFS ensemble members...



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Structure of Michael remains great, but the convection has weakened which is likely why the intensity was lowered.


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779



FXCN31 CWHX 091200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.54 AM ADT
SUNDAY 09 SEPTEMBER 2012.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT, TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 62.4 W, ABOUT 125 NAUTICAL MILES OR 232 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55
KNOTS (102 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 987 MB. LESLIE IS MOVING
NORTH AT 8 KNOTS (15 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 09 9.00 AM 31.5N 62.4W 987 55 102
SEP 09 9.00 PM 33.6N 62.0W 984 60 111
SEP 10 9.00 AM 35.9N 61.0W 983 60 111
SEP 10 9.00 PM 39.1N 59.4W 980 65 120
SEP 11 9.00 AM 43.0N 57.1W 980 65 120
SEP 11 9.00 PM 47.1N 54.0W 980 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 9.00 AM 52.3N 49.6W 982 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 9.00 PM 57.4N 41.9W 984 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 13 9.00 AM 62.0N 32.5W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM
AND IS HINTING THAT THE STORM IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. OUTFLOW IS
STILL IMPRESSIVE IN ALL QUADRANTS AND LESLIE IS MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER SST'S AND A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT - ALL OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM TODAY. HOWEVER, THE STORM STILL LACKS
COHESIVE INNER STRUCTURE WHICH MAY LIMIT MUCH FURTHER STRENGTHENING
DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. LESLIE IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AT AROUND 8 KNOTS BUT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ITS
FORWARD SPEED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE STEERING
EFFECTS OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE U.S.
SEABOARD.

B. PROGNOSTIC

WHILE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR LESLIE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO, WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ACCELERATING THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD, THE CONSENSUS OF MOST RECENT
GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS MORE ACCELERATION IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED, BRINGING THE CENTER OF LESLIE NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
THE RECENT TREND OF FASTER MODEL GUIDANCE, AND IF THE TREND CONTINUES
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE REQUIRED. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
GUIDANCE INDICATE LESLIE WILL LIKELY BE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY THE TIME IT ENTERS CANADIAN OFFSHORE WATERS ON AND
SHOULD BE POST-TROPICAL BEFORE LANDFALL IN NEWFOUNDLAND. ALTHOUGH IT
WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS TRANSITION IT COULD STILL DELIVER WINDS AT OR
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AS IT NEARS THE PROVINCE. COMPLICATING THE
SCENARIO IS HOW MUCH THE EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN MARITIMES
AND NEWFOUNDLAND WILL INTERACT/MERGE WITH LESLIE DURING ITS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
09/12Z 160 140 100 150 80 20 20 80 0 0 0 0
10/00Z 170 140 100 140 80 40 40 80 0 0 0 0
10/12Z 180 150 110 150 80 70 50 80 0 0 0 0
11/00Z 190 180 130 150 90 70 60 80 30 30 10 40
11/12Z 200 190 140 150 95 80 65 80 40 40 20 40
12/00Z 210 220 150 150 100 100 80 100 20 30 40 40
12/12Z 220 240 170 160 90 100 100 100 0 0 0 0
13/00Z 240 280 180 200 80 100 120 120 0 0 0 0
13/12Z 250 280 220 220 70 90 120 120 0 0 0 0


END/BORGEL/FOGARTY


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Quoting wxchaser97:

Thats a cool link.

Here's another link, not as good as the other one though.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Does anyone have the email for admin regarding the accounts? I can't seem to get rid of the advertising even after I renewed my account.

Thanks



WunderBlogAdmin
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Leslie go away...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting wxchaser97:

Thats a cool link.

I'm watching in tandem with the Radar
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Watch Leslie here

Thats a cool link.
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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

WHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS
MORNING...THERE SEEM TO BE SOME CHANGES OCCURRING WITHIN THE INNER
CORE OF MICHAEL. THE EYE HAS INCREASED IN DIAMETER FROM 10 TO 25
N MI AT THE SAME TIME CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...POSSIBLY
INDICATIVE OF A MIXING EVENT WITHIN THE EYE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE AT 4.5 AT 1200 UTC...AND AN AVERAGE OF
RECENT ADT VALUES IS 5.2. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT ON THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA
AND IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITHIN THE INNER
CORE.

RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE WEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW 275/04. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO THE EAST OF
MICHAEL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
NO DIRECT EFFECT ON THE CYCLONE...RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW WESTERLY TO WEST- NORTHWESTERLY
COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY 48 HOURS... MICHAEL SHOULD
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES THE FAST-PACED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48
HOURS AND SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST BY 72 HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ALTHOUGH THE WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF MICHAEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARM ENOUGH...THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR IS
ABOUT TO CHANGE. WITHIN 24 HOURS...STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR
OVER MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE CYCLONE PASSES FROM
SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS TO A POSITION UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE. ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
A NARROW LAYER IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...IT COULD BE OF A
MAGNITUDE THAT WOULD INDUCE A FASTER WEAKENING THAN FORECAST. A
BRIEF REDUCTION IN SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS TIME BEFORE MICHAEL
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE JET. A COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND RAPIDLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK SHOULD MEAN
STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES FRONTAL AROUND 72
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND
THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 33.7N 43.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 33.8N 43.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 34.0N 45.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 35.1N 47.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 38.1N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 46.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Quoting wxchaser97:
...MICHAEL TURNS TOWARD THE WEST... ...WEAKENS A LITTLE...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 33.7N 43.2W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph


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...MICHAEL TURNS TOWARD THE WEST... ...WEAKENS A LITTLE...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 33.7°N 43.2°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
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Quoting wxchaser97:
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AFFECTING BERMUDA AS LESLIE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 32.0°N 62.4°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph



Watch Leslie here
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I.too.miss.the.old.islander101010.style
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...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AFFECTING BERMUDA AS LESLIE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 32.0°N 62.4°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

LESLIE HAS A VERY BROAD EYE AS EVIDENCED BY BERMUDA RADAR
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES. A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOWED 40-45 KT WINDS...AND ENHANCED IR DATA SHOWED
SOME INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS SURROUNDING THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
SINCE LESLIE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...IT MAY HAVE
DIFFICULTY RE-INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COOLER
WATERS IT UPWELLED. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
REGAINING HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. BEYOND 48
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT LESLIE TO BE QUITE DEEP BUT
BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE...SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS AS IT MOVES
OVER THE ATLANTIC. BY DAY 5 THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A
LARGE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF SCANDANAVIA.

LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED...AND THE INTIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/9. AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-4 DAYS...THE POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE HIGHER
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 32.0N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 33.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 36.3N 60.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 40.2N 59.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 46.5N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 62.0N 20.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z...MERGED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Really enjoying the effects of that huge trough! It swept a lot of nasty heat and humidity out to sea, and it scares hurricanes away. It's a beautiful day here in NJ.

I am a little worried about Leslie's track towards Newfoundland, though. I have a friend who lives there and Igor is still fresh in everyone's mind from 2010.
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Quoting islander101010:
new keybd feel like forest gump being liberated


I'm going to miss your distinctive posts! And the heckling that always followed ;p
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786. Skyepony (Mod)
After missing storms for a few days TRMM...click pic to watch very large quicktime movie..

Michael
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Quoting hydrus:
Is there any ground water on Bermuda.?..Do you chlorinate the rain water you receive.?


Generally the rainwater is fine to drink, but many people, us included, filter it as there has been an increase in heavy metal content over the years. Plus bird poo can be an issue in some areas!
Wells are used to tap into the underground brackish water lens which sits on top of the salt water groundwater under the hilly areas of the island. This can be used for washing, flushing and gardening in some cases. Government and large institutions also use reverse osmosis to make it potable. This is then trucked to homes when there is drought conditions, which occurs quite regularly in the summer months.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Convection isn't as strong as before but the whole structure is very circular.
Michael appears t be taking on some annular characteristics.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I do have to wonder why most of the development this year has occurred in the subtropics. I would say that it's consistent with El Nino, but current SST anomalies do not seem to support that; any El Nino is quite weak, and more Modiki.
SST Anomaly map is pretty telling. Although the Nino 3.4 region which we base the ENSO signal off is near neutral, much of the east Pacific is anomalously warm. All of this heat in the ocean works on the atmosphere to create anomalous convection, or upward motion, which lowers pressures in the region. Lower pressures over the East Pacific enhances the pressure gradient between the Azores/Bermuda high and the East Pacific (giving us stronger trade winds in the Caribbean, which disrupted Isaac and Ernesto). Also, looking at the SST Anomaly map, we can see that the SST Anomalies in the deep tropics of the Atlantic are around average to even below average which will favor less upward motion and convection there. The combination between average SST anomalies in the deep tropics of the Atlantic and the warm SST anomalies in the east Pacific work together to enhance downward motion over our tropics. Downward motion, or sinking air, will dry out the atmosphere, which explains a lot of the dry air we have seen over the Atlantic.

So, the SST anomalies do, for the most part, explain the dry air and faster trade wind issues we have been seeing so far this season. This dry air and fast trade wind flow has limited activity over the deep tropics, forcing activity to fester over the subtropics. Furthermore, the enhanced activity in the subtropics can also be attributed to the very warm SST anomalies over the subtropical region itself, as seen in the image below.

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Quoting AussieStorm:
In Breaking News: Leslie breaks wind over Bermuda.












LOL!
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Quoting AussieStorm:

So you know the area where the stream I posted is coming from?


Just down de road. My home is somewhat in the lee facing generally south. My wife's garden is surviving, thankfully.
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Quoting bdawobbles:
Woohoo! Tank Rain as we say here in Bermuda. The last squall probably dropped an inch of rain.
In case you didn't know Bermuda homes have been built with water tanks as part of their foundations for centuries. As Bermuda is formed of a limestone cap and there is no above ground freshwater. Rain falling on the roof is channelled into gutters and to the tank for storage. A happy Bermudian is one who hears his overflow drain gurgling away:). I'm a happy Bermudian!
Is there any ground water on Bermuda.?..Do you chlorinate the rain water you receive.?
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Convection isn't as strong as before but the whole structure is very circular.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Just curious, what happens if/when Leslie and Michael get close together?

Well either a Fujiwara effect happens or one of the storms absorbs the other. Sorry I didn't see your question earlier.
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Quoting bdawobbles:
Woohoo! Tank Rain as we say here in Bermuda. The last squall probably dropped an inch of rain.
In case you didn't know Bermuda homes have been built with water tanks as part of their foundations for centuries. As Bermuda is formed of a limestone cap and there is no above ground freshwater. Rain falling on the roof is channelled into gutters and to the tank for storage. A happy Bermudian is one who hears his overflow drain gurgling away:). I'm a happy Bermudian!

So you know the area where the stream I posted is coming from?
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Just curious, what happens if/when Leslie and Michael get close together?

Sorry, I was watching the stream from Bermuda.

If they get close enough, we could see the Fujiwara effect take place.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Just curious, what happens if/when Leslie and Michael get close together?


Two possibilities, one storm will absorb the other one OR they will rotate around each other (fujiwara).

Depends on how close in strength to each other they are and what the environmental conditions are at the time.
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Woohoo! Tank Rain as we say here in Bermuda. The last squall probably dropped an inch of rain.
In case you didn't know Bermuda homes have been built with water tanks as part of their foundations for centuries. As Bermuda is formed of a limestone cap and there is no above ground freshwater. Rain falling on the roof is channelled into gutters and to the tank for storage. A happy Bermudian is one who hears his overflow drain gurgling away:). I'm a happy Bermudian!
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There is an interesting clash of the seasons going on here.
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Ah well, guess I'll go rake those pine needles. I'll ask my question again later. Have a great morning, all!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
Quoting Neapolitan:
I suppose that's because there's an average of one tornado in NYC every ten years, while there are dozens in Alabama every year. It's no different than if, say, 8" of snow fell in Mobile; that would be the biggest local story of the year. But when that happens in Denver, it barely warrants a mention on the evening traffic report.

It's all relative...


Not nearly as big as if 8" snow fell in Miami... THAT would be interesting.
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In Breaking News: Leslie breaks wind over Bermuda.










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Quoting islander101010:
new keybd feel like forest gump being liberated


Awesome, and now we can read your posts better...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Never expected that little, pathetic tropical depression 13 to become this beautiful storm for this long.

No one every expected it to become anything, Michael still defying everyone.
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Never expected that little, pathetic tropical depression 13 to become this beautiful storm for this long.
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Just curious, what happens if/when Leslie and Michael get close together?
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
Quoting sar2401:

I think that monster trough coming into the Atlantic from the east coast helped push Leslie off the east as well. I suspect that eastward trend will continue, sparing Labrador a direct hit.
I think you are right...They should still keep an eye on it, storms are fickle..:)....Mike is still spinnin strong out there..
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


I agree with Nea, Sar. It's rare to have tornados in NYC. It's comparable to snow in Atlanta, it happens occasionally and when it does it's all over the news.


Along the same note, when it snows in central Louisiana we get a mention, but having things happen in a major city where there are news crews fighting each other to carry a story means there is more coverage.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
TS Leslie impacting Bermuda. Live stream












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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.