Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tornadolarkin:


More supercells forming to the west of NYC. Those should start to rotate soon.


It looks to me like this storm is forming 3 distinct lines. The Main squaw line, A line about 100 miles east of that and the line just inland from the coast spawning tornados
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You can't even tell we're under a server weather warning here.The weather will trick people...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
ok..I just realized my town is under a tornado warning


Take cover dude. The storms that get warnings are dangerous. Stay safe.
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Thanks Dr. Masters. Keeping a close eye on the NE as my Daughter is in college in Conn.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1247 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1243 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS OVER HAGERSTOWN...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAGERSTOWN...
FUNKSTOWN...
CHEWSVILLE...
CAVETOWN...
LEITERSBURG...
SMITHSBURG...
RINGGOLD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT...EITHER PARK AND STAY IN YOUR VEHICLE...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LAY FLAT IN A LOW SPOT.

THIS TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. TAKE COVER NOW.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42029
The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northeastern Washington County in north central Maryland...

* until 115 PM EDT

* at 1243 PM EDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was over Hagerstown... and was moving northeast at 35 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Hagerstown...
Funkstown...
Chewsville...
Cavetown...
Leitersburg...
Smithsburg...
Ringgold...

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54. 7544
90l gaining more conv this hour lets see if it could become a blob before it crosses over
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...
EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1231 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF LONG MEADOW TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WILLIAMSPORT TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF MARTINSBURG...AND WERE MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONG MEADOW...
HAGERSTOWN...
SHEPHERDSTOWN...
BOONSBORO...
WOLFSVILLE...
BRADDOCK HEIGHTS...
BALLENGER CREEK...
BRADDOCK HEIGHTS...
FREDERICK...
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ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 081630
CTZ000-DEZ000-MAZ000-MDZ000-NHZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-P AZ000-VTZ000-090200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
NORTHERN DELAWARE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
MUCH OF NEW JERSEY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
MUCH OF VERMONT

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST STATES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUMID AIR MASS
NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING PARTS OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NEW YORK CITY AREA INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
RISK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WINDS...WILL EXIST WITHIN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA THAT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LARGER CITIES... HARTFORD
CONNECTICUT... NEWARK NEW JERSEY... ALBANY AND NEW YORK CITY NEW
YORK... PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA... AND BURLINGTON VERMONT.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..COHEN.. 09/08/2012

$$
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55970
ok..I just realized my town is under a tornado warning
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Charmeck:


To the west!!!


Crap. I was thinking way to fast! I feel stupid now haha. I'll go edit!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh yes!.Certainly looking forward to some nice temperatures afterwards with little humidity :).You gotta go through the ugly first to get the pretty.

Exactly.... im tihnking u might get it the same time i do
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Another tornado watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

TORNADO WATCH 637 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC001-007-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-035-03 9-041-043-053-
057-065-077-083-089-091-093-095-105-107-111-113-1 15-090200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0637.120908T1640Z-120909T0200Z/

NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO
CLINTON COLUMBIA CORTLAND
DELAWARE DUTCHESS ESSEX
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
HAMILTON HERKIMER MADISON
MONTGOMERY ONEIDA OTSEGO
RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE ST. LAWRENCE SULLIVAN
TIOGA ULSTER WARREN
WASHINGTON
$$
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Quoting Doppler22:

At least the humidity will be lower aftrewards
Oh yes!.Certainly looking forward to some nice temperatures afterwards with little humidity :).You gotta go through the ugly first to get the pretty.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
Quoting tornadolarkin:


More supercells forming to the east of NYC. Those should start to rotate soon.


To the west!!!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want to go through this ish again..It's been really humid the past week..The winds have started to pick up outside but it's still sunny.

At least the humidity will be lower aftrewards
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We are going to get ourselves a soakin' here in Florida, when that front slides into this amount of moisture and merges with that weak low in the gulf.



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Quoting will40:


thanks for the link bug i had lost it from last year


Glad to help, will.
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Quoting Doppler22:

I know how u feel wash :)
I don't want to go through this ish again..It's been really humid the past week..The winds have started to pick up outside but it's still sunny.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794


More supercells forming to the west of NYC. Those should start to rotate soon.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well looks like the beautiful weather we've had here in D.C won't last long :).Well awaiting my appending doom now...

I know how u feel wash :)
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514
WFUS51 KOKX 081623
TOROKX
CTC001-009-081645-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0009.120908T1623Z-120908T1645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1223 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
WESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

* AT 1218 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BETHEL...OR
NEAR DANBURY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NEWTOWN AND SOUTHBURY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1
INCH SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Wow, once that line of storms gets out ahead of that rain shield, look out! Going to be a lot of wind damage today I'm afraid.



A new line could also redevelop well ahead of it. Note the thunderstorms that have already developed around NYC, moisture and instability are way higher near coastal New England then over the interior which makes sense.






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Late summer/August + September is definitely the busiest time of the year for US weather in general in my opinion.
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Quoting palmettobug53:
Surf's up on Folly Beach. More erosion.

Them folks in the water better watch out for rip currents.

Live webcam Folly Beach


thanks for the link bug i had lost it from last year
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And the weather radio starts going off.... going to b a long day haha
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SPC AC 081606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NE
MD/NRN DE ACROSS ERN PA...NJ...ERN NY...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
NRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS...

...NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD THIS MORNING AND
THEN NEWD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND NEW
ENGLAND...AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
THE EJECTING WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S ACROSS MUCH OF NY/NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. DESPITE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM...THE
OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN PRE-FRONTAL
CLOUD BREAKS WILL SUPPORT SOME DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG.

THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE AND EJECTING MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL RESULT
IN THE EWD EXPANSION OF A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC/NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INVOF THE HUDSON VALLEY ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LENGTH /EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCES
AOA 50 KT/ AND LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE /EFFECTIVE SRH OF 250-350 M2 PER
S2/. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS WITH
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK ALONG THE AXIS OF LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING FROM NRN NJ ACROSS SE
NY...WRN CT...AND WRN MA THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASES. FARTHER W...THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND STRONG LINEAR
ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE PREDOMINANT
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE LINEAR. STILL...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE /OR ANY SUSTAINED
CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS AFTERNOON/...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN PA/NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE
EVENING.

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER S ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO VA AND THE CAROLINAS. WIND PROFILES WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N...BUT SCATTERED DAMAGING
GUSTS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

...WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER WI LATER TODAY.
SURFACE HEATING AND A PRONOUNCED BAND OF ASCENT COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTS COULD
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW...AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 09/08/2012
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
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Quoting yonzabam:



Shhh! You want the tinfoil hatters to start?


I say let the tin foilers foil away!

lol
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Wow, once that line of storms gets out ahead of that rain shield, look out! Going to be a lot of wind damage today I'm afraid.

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Well looks like the beautiful weather we've had here in D.C won't last long :).Well awaiting my appending doom now...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
Thank you Dr. Masters
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Quoting Jedkins01:


It must be that danged "HAARP" thingy and Obama just hasn't gotten used to the controls yet. He's a tryin' to sway the election ima tellin ya.



Shhh! You want the tinfoil hatters to start?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Ernesto..who has had many "not what it seems" moments.


Good point, Ernesto was another weird one.
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Quoting yonzabam:


Looks more like a waterspout.

Yes, it was a waterspout at first, but it moved on shore and caused some damage.
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The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

District of Columbia
Delaware
much of Maryland
New Jersey
eastern Pennsylvania
northern Virginia
the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
coastal waters

Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until
1000 PM EDT.

Hail to 1 inch in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north
northwest of Allentown Pennsylvania to 55 miles southwest of
Washington district of colum. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou6).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information... continue... ww 634... ww 635...

Discussion... frontal squall line is expected to intensify this
afternoon as it encounters the area of greater surface
heating/instability across ern PA/MD/VA. Increasing low-midlevel
flow with an ejecting shortwave trough will likewise contribute to
an increasing risk for widespread damaging winds this afternoon this
afternoon/evening.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots.
A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion
vector 26040.


... Thompson
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Supposedly from Coney Island, New York
Link
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Quoting Ameister12:
This tornado came dangerously close the Coney Island,


Looks more like a waterspout.
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Surf's up on Folly Beach. More erosion.

Them folks in the water better watch out for rip currents.

Live webcam Folly Beach
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Hey everyone.Just a clarification for those that arent familiar with NYC. Queens County NY, and specifically Breezy Point where this tornado touched down, is part of New York City.

New York City is five (5) counties: New York (Manhattan); Kings (Brooklyn); Queens (same); Richmond (Staten island); and Bronx (same). The counties are also known as "Boroughs", which I wont waste time explaining here.

These current boundaries of NYC were created on January 1, 1898. Total is a bit over 300 square miles and about 8.3 million people more or less.

This creates a great deal of confusion, especially since only Manhattan and the Bronx use the term New York City on their mail. Brooklyn and Staten Island use their borough names, but Queens uses the village names going back over 100 years- before the city of New York was created.

I hope this helps clear up any confusion as we get hit with severe weather today.

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This tornado came dangerously close to Coney Island,
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Quoting Ameister12:
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Some scary pictures coming in from NYC.


These storms are 100's of miles in front of the main line. Be safe
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from last blog

Quoting washingtonian115:
Ew..why won't she just go away?.It was a waste of time and money sending Jim to Bermuda.At least he get's to enjoy the vacation.


I think Michael and herself will have a little rendezvous somewhere near Canada on Tuesday or Wednesday ..Michael will already be Extropical and she will absorb him ..the ugly storm will in effect kill the beauty .. But thats only my take on it
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Good Day All
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
Quoting Jedkins01:


It is the year of weird tropical cyclones. Debby, Isaac, and Leslie...


Last year was weird, too. Storms not intensifying when everything seemed conducive. I blame the droughts.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


It is the year of weird tropical cyclones. Debby, Isaac, and Leslie...
Ernesto..who has had many "not what it seems" moments.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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