Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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Oh...My God.

I just took the worst fall I have taken in like 21 years, at least on a level surface.

I was going to check to make sure I turned the stove eye off from when I was cooking earlier, and as I rounded the corner on the tile my darn shoes slipped out from under me, and I came literally a quarter inch from breaking my nose on the floor. As it is, I skinned my knew up, and that hasn't happened since the 3rd grade. I think I've also bruised the ridges and palms of my hands, the right one for sure.
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Quoting sar2401:

It's kind of like the NWS's new favorite phrase - Frequent and dangerous lightning. Does anyone know where I can go to see the infrequent and non-dangerous lightning? :)

My front yard. Haven't seen any lightning in several months, or significant rain for that matter. North Texas remains very dry
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NEXRAD Radar - Washington, DC - Hi-Res Vertically Integrated Liquid
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This might get real interesting with what happens with Leslie and that intense cold front if they merge together.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Winds of 65 knots (75 mph) or higher.


cody what kind of weather can we expect in wilmington ?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If by boring you mean no tropical cyclones affecting any landmasses so far, then sure. However...and it may be silly of me to say this...is that not a good thing?


not really cauz I don't even see a TROPICAL WAVE that could affect us
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Quoting Grothar:


I would assume that "insignificant" severe winds happen when there is nobody to see them.

It's kind of like the NWS's new favorite phrase - Frequent and dangerous lightning. Does anyone know where I can go to see the infrequent and non-dangerous lightning? :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13113
.
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HELL CONTINUES

HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT WEEK. FOR NEXT
WEEK...COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. MOST MODELS MOVE
THIS SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST FAR AWAY FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. AS A SPECIAL NOTE...THE 10TH OF SEPTEMBER IS
CLIMATOLOGICALL SPEAKING...THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
252. Zappy
530
WFUS51 KOKX 081900
TOROKX
CTC001-081930-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0011.120908T1900Z-120908T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
300 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

* AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SHERMAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
What are "significantly severe winds?"

The term is used in the Norman OK 12:30 Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Winds of 65 knots (75 mph) or higher.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31445
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
could E. NC get some?
I think everybody east of Charlotte will get something...
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Our little Washi better take cover.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25340
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Quoting Grothar:


I would assume that "insignificant" severe winds happen when there is nobody to see them.


lol! thanks for clearing that up
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
What are "significantly severe winds?"

The term is used in the Norman OK 12:30 Day 1 Convective Outlook.


I would assume that "insignificant" severe winds happen when there is nobody to see them.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25340
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
300 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

* AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SHERMAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 7349 4155 7345 4150 7344 4150 7343
4144 7352 4145 7354 4162 7353 4163 7352
4166 7349
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 220DEG 29KT 4153 7348

$$

JM
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Quoting icmoore:


You're bad Gro :)


Can't help it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25340
What are "significantly severe winds?"

The term is used in the Norman OK 12:30 Day 1 Convective Outlook.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25340
Quoting Grothar:


Gotta love it. Just like being back in the barracks.


Never been in the barracks but I sure have had my face rubbed in it plenty of times :)
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ASCAT pass from earlier this morning.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31445
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope nature rewards us this winter for all the hell it put us through and gives us some good snows.At least there will be a reward on the other side of the tunnel.


Hell is correct. It was 96 degrees and humid yesterday, and still 89 last night at 10 pm. And that was a nice day :) I am so loving the cool breeze right now. Makes the storms worthwhile.
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Quoting Grothar:


What picture?


You're bad Gro :)
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Here we go.... storms popping up in western Carolinas
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Leslie's one of those storms that look misleadingly good on visible... Not so much here though:

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Quoting icmoore:


A rub it in your face in true WU fashion :)


Gotta love it. Just like being back in the barracks.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If I didn't know any better, I would think that Leslie is a very powerful hurricane.



Looks the part. Don't know why some people are describing her as a 'weirdo'.
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Quoting Grothar:


You forgot the MJO uplift which could cause a downward occluded front, causing a barclinic inversion, thereby enhancing convection and propelling forward momentum :)


Duh :)
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Quoting Doppler22:

ur picture isnt showing up


What picture?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25340
Severe storms closing in on DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia.

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If I didn't know any better, I would think that Leslie is a very powerful hurricane.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31445
Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL Gro,
Just striving to be consistent in my statements and previous outlook on 90L -

156. DocNDswamp 11:58 AM CDT on Wed September 05, 2012

"Right now I'm thinking X-Isaac has a chance to become a TD / weak TS briefly over next 30 hrs, with increasing negative factors beyond - initially a nice flare-up / consolidation of a circulation, then perhaps a weakening LLC beyond Thu eve (or 0Z Fri) into Friday... Although somewhat hesitant to deem it a ghost swirl feature, as some baroclinic enhancement is possible via short wave embedded within the approaching frontal trof as all lifts EWD over N FL on Saturday..."


;)


You forgot the MJO uplift which could cause a downward occluded front, causing a barclinic inversion, thereby enhancing convection and propelling forward momentum :)
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Weirdo Leslie.
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Quoting Grothar:
Sept 14



ur picture isnt showing up
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Quoting Neapolitan:
91L's pressure is down another millibar. I suspect it'll be a TD by tomorrow, if not tonight:

AL, 91, 2012090818, , BEST, 0, 143N, 228W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


Late tomorrow is a good bet.
08/1800 UTC 14.5N 24.3W T1.0/1.0
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Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL Gro,
Just striving to be consistent in my statements and previous outlook on 90L -

156. DocNDswamp 11:58 AM CDT on Wed September 05, 2012

"Right now I'm thinking X-Isaac has a chance to become a TD / weak TS briefly over next 30 hrs, with increasing negative factors beyond - initially a nice flare-up / consolidation of a circulation, then perhaps a weakening LLC beyond Thu eve (or 0Z Fri) into Friday... Although somewhat hesitant to deem it a ghost swirl feature, as some baroclinic enhancement is possible via short wave embedded within the approaching frontal trof as all lifts EWD over N FL on Saturday..."


;)


A rub it in your face in true WU fashion :)
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Sept 14


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25340
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Quoting Grothar:


Awright awright, no need to get technical. Just making a little observation.


LOL Gro,
Just striving to be consistent in my statements and previous outlook on 90L -

156. DocNDswamp 11:58 AM CDT on Wed September 05, 2012

"Right now I'm thinking X-Isaac has a chance to become a TD / weak TS briefly over next 30 hrs, with increasing negative factors beyond - initially a nice flare-up / consolidation of a circulation, then perhaps a weakening LLC beyond Thu eve (or 0Z Fri) into Friday... Although somewhat hesitant to deem it a ghost swirl feature, as some baroclinic enhancement is possible via short wave embedded within the approaching frontal trof as all lifts EWD over N FL on Saturday..."


;)
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Quoting icmoore:


This is a PDF of a local news letter here and on page 8 there is an article about it. I have read a lot about it since moving here.

Link


Interesting article. Still a lot of people weren't aware of it coming, even though they gave plenty of coverage. No one had ever seen anything quite like it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25340
91L going to recurve out to sea? We'll see...
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


He was revived though, so some good news there, still scary situation.

Link
I know he was... still scary whenever someone stop breathing.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Off topic: since there's lot of Louisianians on here, that Tulane football player is in my prayer... heard he stop breathing on the field after head to head hit.


He was revived though, so some good news there, still scary situation.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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