Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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it has passed
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting lobdelse81:
90L is nothing but a piece of garbage. They should drop it since it will not amount to anything, but a little rain and an ocassional squall.

They have.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
90L is nothing but a piece of garbage. They should drop it since it will not amount to anything, but a little rain and an ocassional squall.
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Quoting Articuno:
I am under a tornado warning and downstairs currently.

I just need any updates I can get.

Please. ASAP
what location are you at?
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Quoting islandgirls:


I was told that the 1950 hurricane that hit Antigua and Barbuda came in December. Confirmation anyone?
Well both Major Hurricane Baker and Hurricane Dog formed in August if i remember correctly :)
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I am under a tornado warning and downstairs currently.

I just need any updates I can get.

Please. ASAP
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Quoting aspectre:
255 sar2401: It's kind of like the NWS's new favorite phrase - Frequent and dangerous lightning.
Does anyone know where I can go to see the infrequent and non-dangerous lightning?


SouthernCalifornia, especially around the LosAngelesBasin.
Seldom much lightning even during thunderstorms. AND when lightning does strike, it strongly tends to ground itself up in the mountains, away from people.


Same up in the central valley. The hills get hit, and the sierra sure get hit, but here it almost never comes downward. Did a few weeks ago when we were getting some monsoonal stuff pulled up, dry lighting but to ground, it was really surprising. And close, too. I was impressed and I promptly went inside.
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Quoting aspectre:
255 sar2401: It's kind of like the NWS's new favorite phrase - Frequent and dangerous lightning.
Does anyone know where I can go to see the infrequent and non-dangerous lightning?


SouthernCalifornia, especially around the LosAngelesBasin. Never much lightning even during thunderstorms.
AND when lightning does strike, it strongly tends to ground itself up in the mountains, away from people.


Yes, the Southern California coastal area is all but devoid of significant lightning events.

The unusual microclimate in that region is responsible for this. When it is hot enough there to support strong convection, the atmosphere is almost always too dry at the surface.. and aloft.. to produce thunderstorms. When organized storm systems push through Southern California in winter, there are sometimes severe thunderstorm watches and even occasionally severe Wx warnings in the region. But even so the lightning with these events is usually sparse at best because the atmosphere is a lot cooler and so there is less friction in the clouds to produce the static electricity necessary for lightning.

Sometimes during the monsoon season in late July or August, enough moisture can be pulled up from the Gulf of California and combine with the heat over the desert to produce enough instability for storms with frequent lightning. However, the tall coastal range mountains will most often combine with a strong Pacific sea breeze to keep any of these storms from pushing west over the LA Basin.

Sometimes though, on a hot summer night during monsoon season the residents of the Los Angeles basin can see a fairly spectacular light show from active thunderstorms that are taking place at Big Bear Lake, which is at or near 10,000 feet ASL and some 50 miles or so east of LA. The light show can happen when there is frequent and dangerous lightning in those mountains far east of the urbanized zone and the air is clear enough to see it from that far away.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


The wrong kind apparently.

Just a cheap store brand, but they have no grip, and this tile is slick as well, so it's not a smart combination.

I scuffed my knee so hard it peeled hide and hair, and like I say, that hasn't happened in a very long time.

I think I was on the ground for like 30 seconds to a minute just yelling, "Oh my God, oh my God that hurt so much".

At first I thought I'd broke something, my head was spinning and such, but it took me a few seconds to realize nothing was broken.


Man, have I been there with the while of "ow, what the hell?" It's like it takes a few seconds for your brain to process the thing and contact all of your limbs to see if everybody is alright. :P

Really glad you came out basically ok.

Speaking from having been bucked off of a lot of horses, I'd suggesting getting some ice on the bruises and resting everything, and in a little while taking some advil. A glass of wine if you drink is old school, but I've been a _lot_ less sore the next day doing that, too -- just make sure the bruises are done growing first.
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Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie for 8Sept6pmGMT
All times in GMT. BDA is Bermuda
The southernmost kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 5th day as a NamedStorm
The next kinked line north traces Leslie's path on its 6th day
The middle kinked line north traces Leslie's path on its 7th day
The next kinked line north traces Leslie's path on its 8th day
The top kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 9th day
5th day: Leslie travelled 088miles(141kilometres) @ 3.65mph(05.88km/h) over 141,103metres
6th day: Leslie travelled 053miles(086kilometres) @ 2.22mph(03.58km/h) over 085,829metres
7th day: Leslie travelled 062miles(100kilometres) @ 2.58mph(04.15km/h) over 099,528metres
8th day: Leslie travelled 032miles(052kilometres) @ 1.35mph(02.17km/h) over 051,979metres
9th day: Leslie travelled 113miles(181kilometres) @ 4.70mph(07.56km/h) over 181,360metres
8Sept.6pm: Leslie moved 48miles(78kilometres) @ 8.03mph(12.93km/h) over 077,581metres within a span of 6hours
The southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
7Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 143miles(230kilometres)East of Bermuda
8Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage over Bermuda (bottom,left,BDAdumbbell)
8Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 60miles(96kilometres)ENEast of Bermuda (right,dumbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 75miles(120kilometres)East of Bermuda (left,dumbbell west of the straightline projection)
8Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie was heading for a 9Sept.11pm passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda in ~1day3hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste 32.392n62.2w, 32.249n64.854w, 32.57n63.653w-32.572n63.393w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 23.6n62.7w- 23.8n62.8w- 24.1n62.7w- 24.5n62.5w- 24.8n62.5w, 24.8n62.5w- 25.0n62.6w- 25.1n62.7w- 25.3n62.8w- 25.5n62.8w, 25.5n62.8w- 25.8n62.7w- 26.1n62.5w- 26.2n62.4w- 26.3n62.4w, 26.3n62.4w- 26.5n62.2w- 26.5n62.2w- 26.6n62.2w- 26.7n62.2w, 26.7n62.2w- 27.2n62.2w- 27.4n62.3w- 27.8n62.4w- 28.3n62.5w, 28.3n62.5w-29.0n62.5w, 28.3n62.5w-32.387n62.5w, 32.368n64.647w-32.387n62.5w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting FLWaterFront:




Some may blame it on a "beer" belly:

"I could not see where the feet were going."


Are you talking about me? Burp! Help me honey somebody done shrunk my feet and I can't see 'em anymore!! :)
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Quoting Zappy:


Go! Go! Go! Go! Go!


I was told that the 1950 hurricane that hit Antigua and Barbuda came in December. Confirmation anyone?
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Storms are gaining strength in western SC and NC. I'll be getting them few hours from now.

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting washingtonian115:
Strong storms outside!.Have a tornado warning!.Have to take cover funnel cloud reported!.
Good luck!
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296. Zappy
Quoting washingtonian115:
Strong storms outside!.Have a tornado warning!.Have to take cover funnel cloud reported!.


Go! Go! Go! Go! Go!
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255 sar2401: It's kind of like the NWS's new favorite phrase - Frequent and dangerous lightning.
Does anyone know where I can go to see the infrequent and non-dangerous lightning?


SouthernCalifornia, especially around the LosAngelesBasin.
Seldom much lightning even during thunderstorms. AND when lightning does strike, it strongly tends to ground itself up in the mountains, away from people.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Strong storms outside!.Have a tornado warning!.Have to take cover funnel cloud reported!.
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Looking at the Rainbow Image of East Africa there appears to be little bits of waves at the moment getting through the Sahara . and some decent bits of wave going to come off in the south . Not forgetting 91L at the Cape Verde Islands

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Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh...My God.

I just took the worst fall I have taken in like 21 years, at least on a level surface.

I was going to check to make sure I turned the stove eye off from when I was cooking earlier, and as I rounded the corner on the tile my darn shoes slipped out from under me, and I came literally a quarter inch from breaking my nose on the floor. As it is, I skinned my knew up, and that hasn't happened since the 3rd grade. I think I've also bruised the ridges and palms of my hands, the right one for sure.


Quoting Grothar:


It gets worse as you get older...and you can't blame it on the shoes, either.


Some may blame it on a "beer" belly:

"I could not see where the feet were going."
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invest_al122012.invest 08-Sep-2012 19:52 17K
invest_al132012.invest 08-Sep-2012 19:50 10K

why do they keep updating it???
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Washington DC about to get slammed by BAD storm... possible tornado in the area!
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Leslie and Michael:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting JLPR2:


It is, those are low level clouds from the LLC.



I meant that the eye is not visible in the visible sat... I know it's there
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh...My God.

I just took the worst fall I have taken in like 21 years, at least on a level surface.

I was going to check to make sure I turned the stove eye off from when I was cooking earlier, and as I rounded the corner on the tile my darn shoes slipped out from under me, and I came literally a quarter inch from breaking my nose on the floor. As it is, I skinned my knew up, and that hasn't happened since the 3rd grade. I think I've also bruised the ridges and palms of my hands, the right one for sure.


It gets worse as you get older...and you can't blame it on the shoes, either.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting Neapolitan:
Big heat for the West and the Northeast next week, but a very welcome cooldown for much of the central U.S.:

6-10 day

Unfortunately, it'll be very dry across almost the entire Lower 48. But, well, cool is cool...

6-10 day


Very welcome indeed, Nea.
Although if corresponds to negative NAO tendency, might not be so good for Greenland if a big fat ridge again develops atop it - pretty much was the pattern with the mid-August cool-down we had over E US half, centered over Great Lakes / Midwest down to Gulf coast... CPC 500 mb anomalies past 30 days...
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Quoting RTSplayer:


The wrong kind apparently.

Just a cheap store brand, but they have no grip, and this tile is slick as well, so it's not a smart combination.

I scuffed my knee so hard it peeled hide and hair, and like I say, that hasn't happened in a very long time.

I think I was on the ground for like 30 seconds to a minute just yelling, "Oh my God, oh my God that hurt so much".

At first I thought I'd broke something, my head was spinning and such, but it took me a few seconds to realize nothing was broken.
Relieved to hear that your injuries don't sound life threatening.
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Confirmed Tornado with this one.

TORNADO WARNING
VAC013-059-510-610-082015-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0039.120908T1944Z-120908T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CITY OF FALLS CHURCH IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
SOUTHERN ARLINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
EASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 343 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR FAIRFAX...
AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY
COUNTY OFFICIALS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALEXANDRIA...
HUNTINGTON...
CRYSTAL CITY...
BALLSTON...
THE WOODROW WILSON BRIDGE...
REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT...EITHER PARK AND STAY IN YOUR VEHICLE...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LAY FLAT IN A LOW SPOT.

THIS TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 7704 3882 7724 3888 7722 3889 7721
3890 7707 3888 7705 3886 7703 3879 7703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 283DEG 43KT 3885 7718

$$

GMS
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New York tornado
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Quoting AegirsGal:
Sorry to hear that...that has got to suck. What kind of shoes were you wearing?


The wrong kind apparently.

Just a cheap store brand, but they have no grip, and this tile is slick as well, so it's not a smart combination.

I scuffed my knee so hard it peeled hide and hair, and like I say, that hasn't happened in a very long time.

I think I was on the ground for like 30 seconds to a minute just yelling, "Oh my God, oh my God that hurt so much".

At first I thought I'd broke something, my head was spinning and such, but it took me a few seconds to realize nothing was broken.
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Big heat for the West and the Northeast next week, but a very welcome cooldown for much of the central U.S.:

6-10 day

Unfortunately, it'll be very dry across almost the entire Lower 48. But, well, cool is cool...

6-10 day
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting DocNDswamp:
LOL, okay IC and Gro, message received...



Aw Doc no message just having fun :) But I can't speak for Gro :)
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There's a nice burst of convection right at the center of 91L (14.3N/22.8W):

91L
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh...My God.

I just took the worst fall I have taken in like 21 years, at least on a level surface.

I was going to check to make sure I turned the stove eye off from when I was cooking earlier, and as I rounded the corner on the tile my darn shoes slipped out from under me, and I came literally a quarter inch from breaking my nose on the floor. As it is, I skinned my knew up, and that hasn't happened since the 3rd grade. I think I've also bruised the ridges and palms of my hands, the right one for sure.
Sorry to hear that...that has got to suck. What kind of shoes were you wearing?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
274. JLPR2
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Nice looking hurricane... since it formed...eye not visible all the way down though


It is, those are low level clouds from the LLC.

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LOL, okay IC and Gro, message received...

Anyway, best wishes to all enduring severe wx issues with the cold front.

Meanwhile over SE LA - as much as I've been sick of rainfall this year, appears all rain associated with the front is falling apart / drying up... A nice shwr of about 1/2" amt would help wash away the hydrogen sulfide stench still prevalent in Isaac's aftermath / anoxic conditions it set in play over wide swath SE LA... Widespread freshwater fish kills abound, as reports in Google "Isaac fish kills" search shows... Getting a bit weary to see repeatedly, for the fishery struggled in recovery following Katrina / Rita, had just about rebounded from the losses of Gustav / Ike, there it goes again... Pretty sickening, but nothing quite as horrendous as post-Andrew '92, when I contributed to LDWF freshwater fisheries division's assessment survey - took a lot of bleach after each day on the black, putrid waterways counting mile after endless mile of dead fish...
:(
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh...My God.

I just took the worst fall I have taken in like 21 years, at least on a level surface.

I was going to check to make sure I turned the stove eye off from when I was cooking earlier, and as I rounded the corner on the tile my darn shoes slipped out from under me, and I came literally a quarter inch from breaking my nose on the floor. As it is, I skinned my knew up, and that hasn't happened since the 3rd grade. I think I've also bruised the ridges and palms of my hands, the right one for sure.


No good! Glad you're just bruised, though, instead of hitting your head really hard on anything. I've come close a number of times myself. Still probably hurt like crazy, though.

My dad had to be ejected from trying out curling, of all things, because he was so clumsy on the ice -- fell a bunch of times, just having his feet slip out -- that he finally gave himself a serious concussion. Coach told him maybe he should try a different new hobby. :P
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Nice looking hurricane... since it formed...eye not visible all the way down though
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh...My God.

I just took the worst fall I have taken in like 21 years, at least on a level surface.

I was going to check to make sure I turned the stove eye off from when I was cooking earlier, and as I rounded the corner on the tile my darn shoes slipped out from under me, and I came literally a quarter inch from breaking my nose on the floor. As it is, I skinned my knew up, and that hasn't happened since the 3rd grade. I think I've also bruised the ridges and palms of my hands, the right one for sure.


Oh gosh I'm sorry!! You are going to be very sore I hope you are okay.
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:

Hurricane Epsilon


Tropical Storm Leslie



......she better not pull out any of Epsilons tricks.
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Quoting sar2401:

It's kind of like the NWS's new favorite phrase - Frequent and dangerous lightning. Does anyone know where I can go to see the infrequent and non-dangerous lightning? :)


Where I am, at least, cloud to ground strikes are pretty rare. And lightning in general is rare enough that everybody runs out to look at it, so it's a good thing it usually is cloud to cloud here. :P
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Quoting sar2401:

It's kind of like the NWS's new favorite phrase - Frequent and dangerous lightning. Does anyone know where I can go to see the infrequent and non-dangerous lightning? :)


I think they get tired of saying the same thing over and over and try to embellish which is not always successful :)
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Quoting K8eCane:


cody what kind of weather can we expect in wilmington ?


dang starting when?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
NEXRAD Radar - Washington, DC - Hi-Res Vertically Integrated Liquid


That line in Pa. looks pretty mean
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Quoting K8eCane:


cody what kind of weather can we expect in wilmington ?

Our best chance of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, will probably come between 12am EDT and 5am EDT.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Oh...My God.

I just took the worst fall I have taken in like 21 years, at least on a level surface.

I was going to check to make sure I turned the stove eye off from when I was cooking earlier, and as I rounded the corner on the tile my darn shoes slipped out from under me, and I came literally a quarter inch from breaking my nose on the floor. As it is, I skinned my knew up, and that hasn't happened since the 3rd grade. I think I've also bruised the ridges and palms of my hands, the right one for sure.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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