Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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Michael's got the blues...
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within about 20 miles from Albany, NY, to Williamstown, MA there is a 16F difference.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
517 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

NYC019-031-VTC001-007-011-013-015-023-082127-
/O.EXP.KBTV.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-120908T2115Z/
LAMOILLE VT-WASHINGTON VT-GRAND ISLE VT-ESSEX NY-CLINTON NY-
CHITTENDEN VT-ADDISON VT-FRANKLIN VT-
517 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON AND
NORTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND NORTHERN
ADDISON AND WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN CENTRAL VERMONT...AND
FRANKLIN...CHITTENDEN...SOUTHERN GRAND ISLE AND WESTERN LAMOILLE
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST VERMONT HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALLOWED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING TO EXPIRE.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Could someone help me to shoot Leslie DUE SOUTH OVER ME
I'll get right on that...
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
522 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
KENT COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DOVER...
SOUTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED WEST OF
HARTLY...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DOVER...DOVER SPEEDWAY AND RISING SUN AROUND 540 PM EDT...
8 MILES NORTH OF BOWERS AROUND 550 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
I think the line is intesifying as it heads into Massachusetts and Vermont.
Well it sure doesn't look to be losing any steam, does it? Just took a look outside and there are lots of fluffy, cumulus looking clouds coming in from the coast moving somewhat northerly, but mostly westerly direction.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
Quoting HurricaneDan:


Just recorded this in association with the severe storms that just rolled through DC.



dude, that's not "blinding rain" and that's about 30 to 40mph wind, not 70 to 80mph.

If that's 70 to 80mph wind, then we must have had 200mph from Katrina in Sprinfield, LA.


I can upload some videos and show you what "officially" 50mph wind (unofficially 70 to 80mph) really looks like.

Your trees would be swaying like mad, not standing around nearly stationary, and you probably wouldn't be driving in it.
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Could someone help me to shoot Leslie DUE SOUTH OVER ME
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
516 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

* AT 514 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
RIDGEWOOD...OR NEAR WAYNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RAMSEY...MONSEY...PEARL RIVER...NANUET...TAPPAN...ORANGEBURG...NEW
CITY...UPPER NYACK...NYACK AND HAVERSTRAW

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
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Quoting Goaskalice:
Quoting Goaskalice:


Sorry for the quote without comment. Is it likely that the weather and Leslie will converge and how would impact the Bermuda weather?
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I think the line is intesifying as it heads into Massachusetts and Vermont.
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Quoting mikeylikesyouall:
This might get real interesting with what happens with Leslie and that intense cold front if they merge together.
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Man, have I been there with the while of "ow, what the hell?" It's like it takes a few seconds for your brain to process the thing and contact all of your limbs to see if everybody is alright. :P

Really glad you came out basically ok.

Speaking from having been bucked off of a lot of horses, I'd suggesting getting some ice on the bruises and resting everything, and in a little while taking some advil. A glass of wine if you drink is old school, but I've been a _lot_ less sore the next day doing that, too -- just make sure the bruises are done growing first.
I wouldn't suggest mixing the wine and the Advil, though...counter intuitive.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Looks like a TVS south of Albany

Edit: Gone, artifact?


There's another one south of Albany, near Hudson.

(this is on Wundermap)

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Not over yet, but for the most part, today's storms have been rather benign. The squall line just moved over us right next to the plus sign in southern New York in post 342.. about 10 minutes of heavy rain, a couple cracks of thunder, and then light rain behind it.

Looking at the storm reports so far, today could have been much worse.

One tornado, 110 wind reports.
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small cells scooting up in front of the main frontal line. Looks like I still have a few hours yet, before it makes it here.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
Looks like a TVS south of Albany

Edit: Gone, artifact?
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Hurricane Michael:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Leslie's cloudless center.
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Quoting leftlink:
Not sure anyone posted this, but it shows a much better developed funnel cloud, reportedly near Coney Island, ny.

here it is, from user JDHARTIL:


NOUS41 KOKX 082025
PNSOKX
NYZ178-090030-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
425 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR BREEZY POINT IN QUEENS COUNTY NY...

LOCATION...BREEZY POINT IN QUEENS COUNTY NY
DATE...SEPTEMBER 8 2012
ESTIMATED TIME...1058 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...70 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...200 YARDS
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.55N / 73.93W
ENDING LAT/LON...40.56N / 73.93W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK NY HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO NEAR BREEZY POINT IN QUEENS COUNTY NY ON SEPTEMBER 8 2012.

A WATERSPOUT THAT BEGAN OVER THE NEW YORK HARBOR ENTRANCE WATERS
MOVED ONSHORE AT THE BREEZY POINT SURF CLUB...AND PASSED OFFSHORE
NEAR BEACH 216TH STREET. THE PARENT STORM CROSSED ROCKAWAY INLET
AND MAY HAVE SPAWNED AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO IN THE CANARSIE
SECTION OF BROOKLYN. A DAMAGE SURVEY THERE IS STILL ONGOING.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/NYC.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

$$

GOODMAN



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Lets see yesterday around this time Leslie was more or less a half storm with a large band to the north, today its almost a full circular system and it looks to be trying to form a center, as well its in the warm water again.I think u folks in the Avalon penn should pay very close attention to this and the cold front.The 2 systems combined may create a very powerful storm.
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Looks to me like the worst of tornado threat this moment is to your S, but you might want to just stay put until this line blows on through, it's got some good mess with it.


And looks like they just dropped the direct tornado warning. You should be through with the worst at this point, though you'll want to keep an eye out for sure. Some weird little cells popping up here and there behind the main line.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
what location are you at?


It was the same question I had. When someone ask for updates,radars... I always click on a person's name to see if they have their location in their Bio or somewhere. Sometimes it could be of help if people listed their area as general or specific as they are comfortable with.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
My favorite part of Michael's 5PM discussion:
" I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MICHAEL MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY BETTER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON ITS OVERACHIEVING HISTORY."
LOL well this just goes to show you we have a long ways to go before we nail down intensity forecasts.
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My favorite part of Michael's 5PM discussion:
" I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MICHAEL MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY BETTER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON ITS OVERACHIEVING HISTORY."
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Bermuda radar:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Nice outflow on the southern side of Leslie.
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Have to watch this line of thunderstorms to see if it holds together, could bring some severe weather overnight.

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Just got back, it has been a long day. Michael is looking good and I see the on-going squall line.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Storms are gaining strength in western SC and NC. I'll be getting them few hours from now.



We just had a heavy shower off of I485 near Harrisburg, NC - no thunder or lightning - juat really heavy rain for about 5 minutes
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:

120 hrs Nadine follows leslie

What about that little area of developing low pressure behind Nadine-to-be? That one, which could become Oscar, looks to be much further south and in a position to avoid getting scooped out by any troughs. Is it possible that the Bermuda High reduilds itself again after 120 hrs?
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HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 42.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 42.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 42.2W
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Expected rain event looking rather lame so far. Despite very deep tropical moisture in the gulf, convection is lacking quite a bit. Go figure, I expected to see a significant are of convection shaping up in the gulf by now. Maybe it will happen later, we'll see.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
Quoting Articuno:

green haven md


Looks to me like the worst of tornado threat this moment is to your S, but you might want to just stay put until this line blows on through, it's got some good mess with it.
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Not sure anyone posted this, but it shows a much better developed funnel cloud, reportedly near Coney Island, ny.

here it is, from user JDHARTIL:
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Is it over with for me?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it has passed


Still a warning up for stuff S of Annapolis, but I don't know that anything would still be touching down. Nasty mess, regardless.
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Quoting elvette:
Looking at the Rainbow Image of East Africa there appears to be little bits of waves at the moment getting through the Sahara . and some decent bits of wave going to come off in the south . Not forgetting 91L at the Cape Verde Islands


So maybe if 91L does develop and recurve, I doubt that what is behind it will, since it is at lower latitudes. You can notice the bubbling of convection in association with a tropical wave now moving westward through the Sahel region of Africa. This we may need to watch in a few days.
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Squalls haven't reached Bermuda yet.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
what location are you at?

green haven md
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it has passed
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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