Severe weather in the Northeast U.S.; updates on 90L, 91L, Leslie and Michael

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2012

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A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across much of the Northeastern U.S., including metro New York City and Philadelphia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. A fall-like low pressure system with a very powerful cold front will sweep through the region today, triggering widespread severe thunderstorms that may organize into a "derecho" event with damaging winds covering a large swath of the Northeast. A few tornadoes may accompany the event, and several tornado warnings have already been issued in New York, with a possible tornado touchdown in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens. The same storm system killed four people on Friday in northeast Oklahoma; three of the deaths occurred when strong thunderstorms winds blew a mobile home into a ravine. Record heat was observed in advance of the storm's cold front yesterday; Wichita Falls, TX hit a record high of 109, the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the season. When the cold front blew through at 7 pm CDT, the temperature dropped 15 degrees in 16 minutes, falling to 66 degrees by midnight. Wunderground meteorologist Shaun Tanner has more on the severe weather potential for the Northeast in his blog.


Figure 1. Severe weather potential for Saturday, September 8, 2012.

90L in the Gulf not a threat to develop
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Invest 90L, continues to be disrupted by wind shear, and no longer has time to develop before landfall occurs along the Florida Gulf Coast tonight or Sunday. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a small area of poorly organized heavy thunderstorms, which will bring some areas of heavy rain to Florida today and Sunday.

Leslie still struggling with cool waters
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to feel the impact of the the cool waters it stirred up due to its long pause south of Bermuda, and remains a 65 mph tropical storm. The storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops, but has cleared out a large cloud-free center. As Leslie continues to move north over warmer water, the storm should be able to build an eyewall and become at least a Category 1 hurricane. However, Leslie is expected to pass far enough to the east of Bermuda today and tonight that top winds of 45 mph will be observed on the island. Bermuda radar shows a large area of heavy rain from Leslie is very close to the island.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Leslie from the Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Leslie
The strong trough of low pressure pulling Leslie to the north will bring Leslie very close to Newfoundland, Canada by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Leslie should be weakening due to cooler waters and increased wind shear, and is likely to be a tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat to Newfoundland. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 24% chance that Leslie will be a Category 1 or stronger hurricane Wednesday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be near Newfoundland. Even if the core of Leslie misses Newfoundland, the island will still likely experience tropical storm-force winds, since 39+ mph winds will probably extend outward from its center 180 miles to its west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Large swells from Leslie continue to pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 11:50 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
Hurricane Michael remains a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, out over the open mid-Atlantic Ocean. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye. None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming five days, and Michael will likely die at sea over cold waters northeast of Newfoundland in 5 - 7 days.

91L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday has been designated Invest 91L by NHC today. Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models foresee that this storm will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is still early to be assuming that 91L will recurve harmlessly out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Since the season's halfway over, what's eveyones opinion on a hurricane still hitting the east coast? I say 2/10


2/10.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The MJO should return by the start of next month, just in time for the start of Caribbean TC season.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Lot of damage reports, a very well forecasted event by the SPC today.

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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Since the season's halfway over, what's eveyones opinion on a hurricane still hitting the east coast? I say 2/10


Sounds about right, maybe less. CV season winding down by end of the month, models recurve everything. In late Sept, its then home-grown GOM and western caribbean prospects for the rest of the season. A GOM storm could still impact the east coast somewhat if it gets picked up by a trough, maybe even transition to a Noreaster. Seems to happen quite a bit in Oct into early Nov.
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Since the season's halfway over, what's eveyones opinion on a hurricane still hitting the east coast? I say 2/10

3/10, best chance for the next month being New England and then the east coast of FL for October.
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Quoting sfranz:
Nice view of Leslie at sunset on the Full Disk Visible


That's a good view, can see some better things since this morning. Also UoM wins 31-25!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Since the season's halfway over, what's eveyones opinion on a hurricane still hitting the east coast? I say 2/10
1-2/10
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Nice view of Leslie at sunset on the Full Disk Visible

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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Since the season's halfway over, what's eveyones opinion on a hurricane still hitting the east coast? I say 2/10

1/10.
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Quoting HurricaneDan:


Just recorded this in association with the severe storms that just rolled through DC.

over reaction much
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Annular Tropical Storm Leslie

Obviously annular, she still needs help but there is improvement.
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Good Night, Leslie.
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.
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Quoting LargoFl:
a bit breezy but sunny here all day with some passing clouds, Maybe..we get some rain tomorrow? i dunno
We will definitely get some rain tonight. There is a small line of showers about three hours away from the coast, it plenty more should develop as the evening progresses. Expect somme heavier activity by sunrise moving in. The front will stall over the Tampa bay area tomorrow afternoon, keeping rain showers around til Monday.

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.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4147
The temp went from 89 degrees this time yesterday to 64 and light rain right now. Thank goodness for lower humidity.

On the falling down note, in February my daughter was reading and walking up a sidewalk at the same time, and stepped off the curb unexpectedly and fell and broke her left wrist. In August, she was playing with our dog and got the pup a bit worked up so she would chase her. She dashed through the house, slipped on rug, and fell through a doorway, smacking left arm off the door frame.... and broke her left wrist. While she was down, the dog took a nip of her behind for good measure. Falling down sucks, unless you do it in a way that allows your mom to embarrass you :)
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Annular Tropical Storm Leslie
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The US wind map, is showing winds at a max of around 15MPH in the area north of New York at the moment:-

http://hint.fm/wind/

There are also a huge amount of Northerlies coming down over the central USA. Should be getting significant drops in temps there overnight.
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in a few days might see something around the nw carib.good evening am no longer a handicapped
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Southern California/Syracuse game delayed

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Quoting HurricaneDan:


You had to have been there to see it. Believe me, i've been in hurricanes too and I know what it feels like, and those winds today were gusting close to hurricane force.


It is well known that winds are notoriously overestimated by spotters and other trained weather observers.
60-70mph winds typically begin to cause damage. Although this can vary depending on building codes and vegetation type, if someone estimates 60+ mph winds but does not see trees bending substantially and damage to vegetation exceeding a few leaves being removed, then a reconsideration of the estimate is in order.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
544 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR COPAKE...OR
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREAT BARRINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
EGREMONT PLAIN...NORTH EGREMONT AND SOUTH EGREMONT BY 555 PM
EDT...
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167



Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Labrador
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island.

For tropical storm Leslie.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 AM ADT.

Leslie is slowly moving northward. Impacts from Leslie
Could reach Eastern Canada by Wednesday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
The Canadian Hurricane Centre continues to monitor the evolution of
Leslie. The storm continues to move very slowly over the colder
water which it has stirred up. The winds are estimated at just below
hurricane force based on hurricane hunter aircraft data from this
morning. The potential for Leslie to regain hurricane strength
increases on Sunday while it moves over warmer waters northeast of
Bermuda. Most of the computer models still show a slow northward
movement with acceleration early next week. Given the latest
developments Leslie will likely strengthen to category one.
However the storm is quite large with an extensive area of rainfall,
cloud cover and large waves ahead of it.

In general, the threat of Leslie affecting Nova Scotia has been
decreasing but is still large enough to bear watching.
For Newfoundland the threat of some impact is much greater with a
moderate probability of 40% for the Wednesday to Thursday time-frame.
This may seem contradictory to the official track forecast which
depicts the storm center near the Avalon Peninsula early Thursday.
It was noted this morning that a better consensus is developing
amongst the various models. Stay tuned to our updates for the trend
in the track and discussions.

One of The Key weather features which would control the evolution of
this week's weather pattern is the behaviour of a trough of low
pressure now approaching from the Great Lakes. This feature is
forecast to slowly intensify and move towards the Maritimes during
the next 24 to 48 hours. During the early part of new week the
computer models are predicting that the trough will interact with the
hurricane and lift it northward. There could also be a front merging
with the storm and drawing moisture northward along it. However, all
this is contingent on the timing of the trough and position of the
tropical storm/hurricane.

Much smaller but more intense hurricane Michael over 2000 kilometres
east of Leslie now, will also move very slowly and is expected to
stay offshore to the east of Newfoundland. Leslie and Michael will
draw closer to each other towards the middle of the week.
Since Leslie is much larger, its possible impact on Michael would
likely be to shear-apart its upper clouds and acellerate it northward
away from Leslie. A true merging of the hurricanes is not expected
based on their differing sizes. But experience with this sort of
situation is limited and we will certainly monitor it.

The contribution from several of the factors mentioned above will
have an impact on rainfall amounts throughout the region. Given the
proposed track heavy rain could spread well to the west of the track
and affect eastern sections of Nova Scotia and large portions of
Newfoundland.

Moderate surf conditions related to Leslie will persist along
south-facing coastlines of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland until Leslie
moves out of the region. If near the water, exercise caution knowing
that wave heights can vary significantly over a span of several
minutes and that rip currents can develop at local beaches.
Incident wave heights near 2 metres (7 feet) may break at the shore
at heights near 3 metres (10 feet) this weekend. Somewhat higher
waves will affect the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia Monday to
Wednesday. Much larger waves are expected along the South Coast of
Newfoundland starting Wednesday. Storm surge will likely be a
concern for parts of eastern and Southern Newfoundland during
Leslie's closest approach.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will continue issuing these general
information statements on Sunday with more detailed track forecasts
possibly beginning early Monday.

Visit WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (all in lower
case) for the latest hurricane track map.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/COUTURIER


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The line is pushing into CT and MA now:

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a bit breezy but sunny here all day with some passing clouds, Maybe..we get some rain tomorrow? i dunno
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Quoting AegirsGal:
Sorry to hear that...that has got to suck. What kind of shoes were you wearing?



I did same after coming into my tile floored kitchen from pool and standing on one foot while removing sandle from other. Smashed my noggin, broke glasses I had just put on, wound up in the ER where the doc stiched a slit up over my eye.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
544 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR COPAKE...OR
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREAT BARRINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
EGREMONT PLAIN...NORTH EGREMONT AND SOUTH EGREMONT BY 555 PM
EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE... DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV
OR ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY .GOV.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4223 7344 4215 7337 4204 7354 4209 7361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 219DEG 35KT 4210 7352

$$

BGM
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
543 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 540 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. AN AUTOMATED GAUGE AT WINTERFIELD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
REPORTED 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EASTLAND MALL AND SOUTHPARK MALL. EDWARDS BRANCH AND BRIER CREEK
AND LIKELY TO FLOOD ROADS IN THIS AREA WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

TO REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...MUDSLIDES...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL
FREE NUMBER... 1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.
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Quoting RTSplayer:



dude, that's not "blinding rain" and that's about 30 to 40mph wind, not 70 to 80mph.

If that's 70 to 80mph wind, then we must have had 200mph from Katrina in Sprinfield, LA.


I can upload some videos and show you what "officially" 50mph wind (unofficially 70 to 80mph) really looks like.

Your trees would be swaying like mad, not standing around nearly stationary, and you probably wouldn't be driving in it.



lol yeah, that definitely wasn't blinding rain with 70 to 80 mph winds. Your average run of the mill thunderstorm around here looks worse than that.
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Leslie:



Michael:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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Tropical Storm LESLIE Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT42 KNHC 082032
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
SYMMETRIC AROUND A LARGE CLOUDLESS CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS A TRUCK TIRE/DOUGHNUT-TYPE PATTERN. SINCE
THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT
INCREASED YET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS.
GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PERFECTLY ESTABLISHED IN ALL
QUADRANTS...AND THAT LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER WARM
WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR LESLIE TO REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS IN A DAY OR SO. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR BY
DAY 4 WHEN LESLIE IS NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND.

LESLIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. A LARGE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE LESLIE TO RECURVE AND INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS...BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPEED
BY 96 HOURS WHEN LESLIE IS ABOUT TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...AND THEN LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER
GUIDANCE.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE
WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 29.4N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 30.4N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 32.2N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 34.0N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 36.0N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 44.0N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 46.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 48.0N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Saturday 8 September 2012
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.62 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 64.8°F
Dewpoint: 49.5°F
Humidity: 58 %
Wind: NNW 17 gust 23 mph



nice and dry and cool behind the front
feels like fall
tonights low may fall below 55f
sundays highs may struggle to reach mid 60's for afternoon highs
and be in the mid 40's for monday morning before sunrise
in the central lower great lakes regions east and south
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They are trying to evacuate the US Open in Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York. Just suspended play for the second men's semi-final match.
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
TORNADO WARNING
NJC003-NYC087-082145-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0012.120908T2116Z-120908T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
516 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

* AT 514 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
RIDGEWOOD...OR NEAR WAYNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RAMSEY...MONSEY...PEARL RIVER...NANUET...TAPPAN...ORANGEBURG...NEW
CITY...UPPER NYACK...NYACK AND HAVERSTRAW
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Quoting HurricaneDan:


First part of the severe storms this afternoon.

Both videos are really good, those looked to have been some tense moments.
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...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
COASTS OF TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTY...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BEACHES UNTIL THIS EVENING...

.RATHER STRONG ONSHORE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY
ALONG THE TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTY COASTS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THE TIDE GAGE AT CEDAR
KEY...JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WAS ABOUT 1.7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
AT 342 PM EDT. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
PREDICTED HIGH TIDE OF 0.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL THIS
EVENING ...THE STORM TIDE WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 FEET.
ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE
AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND DECREASED BY THIS TIME...TIDES WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE STORM TIDE WILL RANGE FROM 2.5 TO
3 FEET. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

FLZ128-134-091200-
/O.NEW.KTAE.CF.Y.0003.120908T2035Z-120909T1200Z/
COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
435 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AS TIDES WILL BE 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. STORM TIDES RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY.

* TIMING...THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...NEAR THE TIMES OF LOCAL HIGH
TIDE.

* IMPACTS...AT THESE LEVELS...FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
LOW LYING AREAS AT THE COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Leslie and Michael, Michael doing way better than Leslie.
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Quoting AegirsGal:
I wouldn't suggest mixing the wine and the Advil, though...counter intuitive.


Well, official medical advice would be to err on the safe side and not to combine the two, as advil can lead to stomach bleeding/irritation and that can certainly be worsened by alcohol. Both are mildly anticoagulant (thus, the "wait until the bruises are done growing") and ibuprofen can irritate your stomach lining if you have too much or if you're sensitive.

But for most of us, a small dose of both would be pretty unlikely to be a problem at all. I don't drink if I've had any tylenol, FWIW, but tylenol is a lot harder on your liver.

And I suppose I sure wouldn't go on a bender with any pain meds, but that's not so much good for you in any case. :P
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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