90L in the Gulf disorganized; Leslie and Michael weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:27 PM GMT on September 07, 2012

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A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of Louisiana, Invest 90L, was almost torn apart last night by wind shear, but is making a bit of a comeback today. Visible satellite loops and surface observations from buoys and oil rigs in the Gulf show that 90L has an sloppy, elongated surface circulation. The area covered by heavy thunderstorms is relatively modest, and has been pushed to the south side of the circulation center by strong northerly winds that are creating a high 20 knots of wind shear. There is a large amount of dry air that surrounds 90L on all sides that is interfering with development. A hurricane hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate 90L today was cancelled, and has been rescheduled for Saturday afternoon.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Invest 90L taken at 11:58 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012.

Forecast for 90L
Wind shear over 90L is predicted to stay in the moderate to high range, 15 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then drop to the low range Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf are 28.5° - 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. 90L is essentially stationary this morning, but should begin a slow motion to the east-northeast tonight, in response to the steering flow from a trough of low pressure and its associated surface cold front approaching the Gulf Coast from the northwest. This trough should be capable of pulling 90L to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida by Sunday morning. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put these odds higher, at 30%.

Leslie weakens to a tropical storm
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to remain nearly stationary to the south of the island of Bermuda, and a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft found this morning that Leslie had weakened below hurricane strength, to a 70 mph tropical storm. An ocean probe launched by the aircraft found that the ocean temperatures at one location in Leslie were 24.5°C, a full 5°C (8°F) drop from when the storm first reached the area two days ago. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the west continue to drive dry air to Leslie's west into the core of the storm. The combined effect of shear and cool waters have eroded away Leslie's core, and the storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight, and an uncrewed NASA Global Hawk aircraft finished an HS3 Hurricane Research Mission into Leslie this morning.


Figure 2. Hurricane Leslie as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 10:45 am EDT Thursday, September 6, 2012. At the time, Leslie was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Leslie
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast should make Leslie start moving to the north at 5 mph by Saturday morning. The models have stayed with their more eastwards solution to Leslie's track, which keeps the threat of Bermuda receiving hurricane-force winds relatively low, since the island is expected to be on the weak (left) side of the storm. If the official NHC forecast verifies, tropical storm-force winds will just graze Bermuda Sunday morning through Sunday evening. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Friday night. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and once the storm moves away from the large pool of cool waters it has stirred up, the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow the storm to intensify to at least a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 30% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be beginning its closest pass to Bermuda. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 200 - 220 miles by Sunday.

Most of the models indicate Leslie is likely to make landfall in Newfoundland, Canada on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. However, the models have been trending more to the east with Leslie's track in recent runs, and given the uncertainty in 4-day hurricane forecasts, the storm could very well miss the island, passing to the northeast. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 12:20 pm EDT Thursday September 6, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
The only major hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Michael, has weakened, and is now a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye, but the storm is not as symmetric, and the eye no longer as distinct as was the case yesterday. Michael is far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming seven days.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that a new tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa today will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. This wave is predicted to exit Africa too far north to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


Don't feel badly. It is not the speed with which one posts, but the content of their entry that counts.


I have heard that before...
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Quoting Grothar:


That's because he keeps in finger on the F5 button all the time.
You underestimate me, then; my 'F5' key is as underused as my collection of VHS tapes. No, I'm a software developer; I simply wrote a script that runs in the background to monitor certain pages for changes, then pops up the content of those pages when a change is detected. Constantly hitting the F5 key for updates? That went out with disco...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks.The environment seems to be better around him.You can tell by the way he's looking this morning vs yesterday night where it looks like he was getting stretched apart.

It almost seems like he wants to strengthen again, that would be cool.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Thanks.The environment seems to be better around him.You can tell by the way he's looking this morning vs yesterday night where it looks like he was getting stretched apart.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The eyewall is completely orange again...

Yup, and even though the eye isn't a circle it is clearer again.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup, he is still looking good.

The eyewall is completely orange again...
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Quoting Grothar:


Don't feel badly. It is not the speed with which one posts, but the content of their entry that counts.

I'm not feeling badly about this, going to the orthodontist in a little bit though is something I don't want to do.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Micheal looking good.Anyone have a close up of him?.

Yup, he is still looking good.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I usually do to, what a life I have. I'm busy doing 10,000 things at once so I'm not going to be the first one to post anything today.


Don't feel badly. It is not the speed with which one posts, but the content of their entry that counts.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Micheal looking good.Anyone have a close up of him?.

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Quoting Grothar:


Looks like the CV islands are going to get a lot of rain.

Sure does. We are in need of some rain here. Need to keep the undergrowth wet so that our fire season isn't a bad one.

Link to CV webcams.... Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Not looking very nice there right now.
Cape Verde Sal Palha Verde





Looks like the CV islands are going to get a lot of rain.
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Quoting Grothar:


That's because he keeps in finger on the F5 button all the time.

I usually do to, what a life I have. I'm busy doing 10,000 things at once so I'm not going to be the first one to post anything today.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good morning.
These two have been really boosting the ACE totals for this season. By the time they're done with, we'll probably be near 70 points or so.
Micheal looking good.Anyone have a close up of him?.
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Quoting Grothar:


You're getting too fast for me Geoff. I was just going to post this. Good work!



Not looking very nice there right now.
Cape Verde Sal Palha Verde



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Quoting wxchaser97:
We've now got 91L from the AOI near Africa, so it begins. I see Nea beat me to it, I'll post an image of 91L then.



That's because he keeps in finger on the F5 button all the time.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
We have 91L.

I'm always late to the party.


And you don't look any better, either. :)
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The NHC isn't holding back percentages on this one since it has ample model support.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
We have 91L.

AL, 91, 2012090806, 144N, 207W, 25, 1009, DB


You're getting too fast for me Geoff. I was just going to post this. Good work!

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Quoting sar2401:
Largo, those models are completely crazed. 90L is going to get absorbed in the larger front headed to Florida and may enhance rain chances a bit for the Panhandle but that's about it. I have no idea why any models are still being run on that thing. Even the NHC has finally lowered the chances of development to near zero. I just hope this is the end of Isaac and his relatives. I've had more than enough of him. :)
90L most likely will not develop, but there is a messy blob of moisture being carried with it extending south into the GOM. Pretty convinced she will significantly increase rain totals over N. FL as well as the FL. peninsula. Not good.
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes i agree..its going to be absorbed in the front..NHC has it at 0%, so its just going to add to the rainfall..


I disagree with the NHC, I think it should moved up to 1%.
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guess we all know in florida its going to be a rainy stormy weekend, see you all later..stay safe out there........THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
SUPRESS THE RIDGE AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND LIMIT SEA BREEZE
FORMATION TODAY...AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY PINNED NEAR THE EAST
COAST WHERE IT DOES FORM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM...ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE INTERIOR
TO THE EAST COAST. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...THEN A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
STORMS MAY DROP A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WHEN PASSING...
RESULTING IN TEMPORARY FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
BUILDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE
WILL BRING ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT DANGER AT THE BEACHES
TODAY. CHECK CONDITIONS WITH BEACH PATROLS OR LIFE GUARDS WHEN
ARRIVING AT THE BEACH. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 35
KNOTS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST ACROSS INLAND LAKES...THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND ENTER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
BOATERS SHOULD KEEP A EYE TO THE WEST FOR APPROACHING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY OVER FLORIDA WILL BRING INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE.

BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
AND LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELLS.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

GLITTO
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
We have 91L.

I'm always late to the party.
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..NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE LESLIE WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BEACHES CREATING A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS OUR AREA. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL...ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS EMANATING FROM DISTANT HURRICANE LESLIE
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF OUR
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Good morning everyone. There were some beautiful clouds over the Gulf this morning and it could be an interesting day today in Florida.

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
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Quoting sar2401:

Largo, those models are completely crazed. 90L is going to get absorbed in the larger front headed to Florida and may enhance rain chances a bit for the Panhandle but that's about it. I have no idea why any models are still being run on that thing. Even the NHC has finally lowered the chances of development to near zero. I just hope this is the end of Isaac and his relatives. I've had more than enough of him. :)
yes i agree..its going to be absorbed in the front..NHC has it at 0%, so its just going to add to the rainfall..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting guygee:
Checked my rain gauge at my Satellite Beach location, only 0.03 inches from storms last night in my gauge at my Satellite Beach, FL home. My total for the last ten days is 0.07 inches, continuing the "Wet Florida Mainland-Dry Space Coast Barrier Island" pattern as of late.

















'
going to be a wet weekend for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting LargoFl:
looks like northern florida and maybe central florida are going to get some rain event this weekend huh........

Largo, those models are completely crazed. 90L is going to get absorbed in the larger front headed to Florida and may enhance rain chances a bit for the Panhandle but that's about it. I have no idea why any models are still being run on that thing. Even the NHC has finally lowered the chances of development to near zero. I just hope this is the end of Isaac and his relatives. I've had more than enough of him. :)
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Does the NHC do ACE numbers? Is there an official ACE counter?
I've never seen a running tally, though at the end of each season they generally publish their number, and many (though not all) of their published TCRs make mention of the number.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Checked my rain gauge at my Satellite Beach location, only 0.03 inches from storms last night in my gauge at my Satellite Beach, FL home. My total for the last ten days is 0.07 inches, continuing the "Wet Florida Mainland-Dry Space Coast Barrier Island" pattern as of late.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-091000 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
505 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO RESULT IN
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK. ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY...A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...PRIMARILY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS ON
MONDAY...WITH CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Good morning.
These two have been really boosting the ACE totals for this season. By the time they're done with, we'll probably be near 70 points or so.
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30%.............A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1011 MB LOW MOVED OFF THE COAST
OF WEST AFRICA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WAVE AXIS ANALYZED FROM 22N16W TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR
14N20W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
AFFECTING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 25W-18W.
THE WAVE HAS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AND CONTAINS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
We've now got 91L from the AOI near Africa, so it begins. I see Nea beat me to it, I'll post an image of 91L then.

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The birth of 91L:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209081200
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012090806, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012090712, , BEST, 0, 134N, 157W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012090718, , BEST, 0, 138N, 173W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012090800, , BEST, 0, 141N, 191W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012090806, , BEST, 0, 144N, 207W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
Quoting Grothar:
Showing signs of life again.



Good morning, Grothar and fellow bloggers.

As usual, that rainbow floater is showing things that aren't there. With the exception a few weak, scattered showers, Alabama is completely quiet. 90L is showing a few thunderstorms developing in the Gulf in response to the increasing instability courtesy of the unseasonably strong cold front headed its way. The remnants will be run over and absorbed as the front continues south.

Looks like the tail end of the front over LA and MS may see some more showers and thunderstorms today than we will in Alabama. Bulk shear and CAPE are very low here, since the actual low is so far north of us. Remains to be seen if we will get enough daytime heating to set anything off, but this front should not be a big weathermaker for us.

The NE and southern Canada appear to be really under the gun today. That low is dragging lots of moisture with it, and the instability up there borders on the insane. There will be a severe weather outbreak much more typical of April than September. The weird weather of 2012 continues.

While I feel badly that my friends further north may have to got through some bad stuff today, I thank them for the chance of some cooler and less humid weather in the South. It appears we may get down into the upper 50's Sunday night, with a high only in the low to mid-80's. I may finally get a chance to turn off the A/C and do my bit to decrease global warming. :)
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looks like northern florida and maybe central florida are going to get some rain event this weekend huh........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting Neapolitan:
I notice you got your numbers from Ryan Maue's site. As has been noted before, they are incorrect, as Maue's totals include times when a particular cyclone is also a TD. That runs counter to the official NHC definition of ACE, which only includes ACE accumulated while a cyclone is a named TS. (Maue's totals are in nearly every case higher than any other tally you will find.)

At any rate, comparative numbers are what matters here--that is, until a better rating system is devised--so Maue's system, while not official, is as good as any other...


Does the NHC do ACE numbers? Is there an official ACE counter?
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Where is this African wave forecast to go? Is there any chance it will threaten the continental U.S.?
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FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
946 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...THE WITHLACOOCHEE
AT TRILBY...AND THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...

.MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE WITHLACOOCHEE AT TRILBY AND
THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS. WITH WET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROLONGED OR RENEWED FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC053-101-081446-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TRBF1.1.ER.120903T0100Z.120906T1300Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
946 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE WITHLACOOCHEE AT TRILBY
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 9 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.4 FEET SUNDAY AND
THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AT LACOOCHEE, TALISMAN ESTATES,
RIVERDALE, RIVER HEIGHT ESTATES, AND NOBLETON.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.9 FEET
ON AUG 24 2003.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SAT SUN MON TUE WED

WITHLACOOCHEE
TRILBY 12 12.4 FRI 09 PM 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.2

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
30% now



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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
ace? isacc kicked all the storms ass so far.. if hispanola was not there we could of easily had a mega major
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting AussieStorm:

You need to update your numbers.


LESLIE
Current wind: 55kts
Max Wind: 65kts
A.C.E: 12.425


MICHAEL
Current Wind: 85kts
Max Wind: 100kts
A.C.E: 11.8675
I notice you got your numbers from Ryan Maue's site. As has been noted before, they are incorrect, as Maue's totals include times when a particular cyclone is also a TD. That runs counter to the official NHC definition of ACE, which only includes ACE accumulated while a cyclone is a named TS. (Maue's totals are in nearly every case higher than any other tally you will find.)

At any rate, comparative numbers are what matters here--that is, until a better rating system is devised--so Maue's system, while not official, is as good as any other...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
Quoting AussieStorm:
Anyone else see the Atmospheric wave on the Jackson MS radar?
Or is it a gust front?

Yeah I see it, it could be a gust front or wave of some sort, the radar cludder doesn't help though.
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Quoting yqt1001:


She did a few days ago already. :P Though Michael is catching up to her quickly and we might see yet again another winner.

Especially with Michael still staying alive and strong.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
But Leslie, with 11.21 ACE units, has already passed Isaac, with 9.4225.

Now, Michael is currently behind Isaac, with 9.3025. But he will jump past Isaac at this morning's 1100 EDT TWO.

ACE

You need to update your numbers.


LESLIE
Current wind: 55kts
Max Wind: 65kts
A.C.E: 12.425


MICHAEL
Current Wind: 85kts
Max Wind: 100kts
A.C.E: 11.8675
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Anyone else see the Atmospheric wave on the Jackson MS radar?
Or is it a gust front?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron