90L in the Gulf disorganized; Leslie and Michael weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:27 PM GMT on September 07, 2012

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A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of Louisiana, Invest 90L, was almost torn apart last night by wind shear, but is making a bit of a comeback today. Visible satellite loops and surface observations from buoys and oil rigs in the Gulf show that 90L has an sloppy, elongated surface circulation. The area covered by heavy thunderstorms is relatively modest, and has been pushed to the south side of the circulation center by strong northerly winds that are creating a high 20 knots of wind shear. There is a large amount of dry air that surrounds 90L on all sides that is interfering with development. A hurricane hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate 90L today was cancelled, and has been rescheduled for Saturday afternoon.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Invest 90L taken at 11:58 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012.

Forecast for 90L
Wind shear over 90L is predicted to stay in the moderate to high range, 15 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then drop to the low range Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf are 28.5° - 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. 90L is essentially stationary this morning, but should begin a slow motion to the east-northeast tonight, in response to the steering flow from a trough of low pressure and its associated surface cold front approaching the Gulf Coast from the northwest. This trough should be capable of pulling 90L to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida by Sunday morning. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put these odds higher, at 30%.

Leslie weakens to a tropical storm
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to remain nearly stationary to the south of the island of Bermuda, and a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft found this morning that Leslie had weakened below hurricane strength, to a 70 mph tropical storm. An ocean probe launched by the aircraft found that the ocean temperatures at one location in Leslie were 24.5°C, a full 5°C (8°F) drop from when the storm first reached the area two days ago. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the west continue to drive dry air to Leslie's west into the core of the storm. The combined effect of shear and cool waters have eroded away Leslie's core, and the storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight, and an uncrewed NASA Global Hawk aircraft finished an HS3 Hurricane Research Mission into Leslie this morning.


Figure 2. Hurricane Leslie as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 10:45 am EDT Thursday, September 6, 2012. At the time, Leslie was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Leslie
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast should make Leslie start moving to the north at 5 mph by Saturday morning. The models have stayed with their more eastwards solution to Leslie's track, which keeps the threat of Bermuda receiving hurricane-force winds relatively low, since the island is expected to be on the weak (left) side of the storm. If the official NHC forecast verifies, tropical storm-force winds will just graze Bermuda Sunday morning through Sunday evening. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Friday night. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and once the storm moves away from the large pool of cool waters it has stirred up, the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow the storm to intensify to at least a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 30% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be beginning its closest pass to Bermuda. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 200 - 220 miles by Sunday.

Most of the models indicate Leslie is likely to make landfall in Newfoundland, Canada on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. However, the models have been trending more to the east with Leslie's track in recent runs, and given the uncertainty in 4-day hurricane forecasts, the storm could very well miss the island, passing to the northeast. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 12:20 pm EDT Thursday September 6, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
The only major hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Michael, has weakened, and is now a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye, but the storm is not as symmetric, and the eye no longer as distinct as was the case yesterday. Michael is far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming seven days.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that a new tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa today will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. This wave is predicted to exit Africa too far north to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 7544:
looks like the one after 91L will be the one to watch the gfs takes it west all the way to the bahammas then recurves but that could change that would would be oscar

I would love to see an "Oscar the Grouch" lol
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Quoting icmoore:
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">


That's a impressive sqaw line running from Canada through Western NY, Western PA and into WV
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70% humidity here, and the following is a weather statement for my general area:

"... Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of southern New England...

Thunderstorms may develop across southern New England between noon and 2 PM... then become more numerous during the mid and late afternoon. Some storms will likely contain strong or damaging
winds. They will also contain torrential downpours which may cause small stream and poor drainage flooding. There is a much lower chance of tornadoes... but it is a chance Worth mentioning.

Although severe thunderstorms in New England typically diminish with sunset... these thunderstorms will likely continue into early
night with continued chance of strong or damaging winds and torrential downpours.

The greatest risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon will be across Connecticut... western Massachusetts... and southwest New Hampshire. This area will spread east this evening and tonight."
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
looks like a warning for queens is in the making
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947. 7544
looks like the one after 91L will be the one to watch the gfs takes it west all the way to the bahammas then recurves but that could change that would would be oscar
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a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
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968
WFUS51 KOKX 081455
TOROKX
NYC047-081-081530-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0006.120908T1455Z-120908T1530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1055 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT...

* AT 1054 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
ROCKAWAY BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SHEEPSHEAD BAY...CANARSIE...HOWARD BEACH...KENNEDY AIRPORT...OZONE
PARK...FOREST HILLS...JAMAICA...LITTLE NECK...CLEARVIEW
EXPRESSWAY...WHITESTONE...FLUSHING AND BAYSIDE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.



LAT...LON 4057 7394 4057 7396 4080 7385 4081 7381
4079 7377 4078 7376 4075 7370 4073 7371
4072 7373 4067 7372 4056 7386 4054 7394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1455Z 207DEG 21KT 4055 7393

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Quoting bappit:

From the September 4th discussion:

"Recent values of the upper-ocean heat anomalies (slightly positive) and a near zero thermocline slope index reflect ENSO neutral conditions."

Just because there is no el nino does not mean that we can't see things in the Atlantic that remind us of an el nino, but then if we think that an el nino therefore exists ... we are just seeing things.


Well, everything to me points a Modoki El Nino winter, especially with the cool anomalies off the coast of South America and the warm anomalies in the CPAC.
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Quoting lobdelse81:

Hello Reed! Are you in Long Island? Looks kinda stormy there.


I was born there.
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Quoting lobdelse81:

Hello Reed! Are you in Long Island? Looks kinda stormy there.


I lived there for 13 years, still have lots of family up there.. I live in Florida.
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Quoting reedzone:
Don't need sunlight with this outbreak.. Conditions are soo ripe for Tornadoes that we have rotation already in a formed storm way ahead of the squall line.. This is going to be a classic Tornado Outbreak. SPC expected to issue a Tornado Watch for Long Island very soon.

Hello Reed! Are you in Long Island? Looks kinda stormy there.
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936. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
A whole blog full of religion and politics a couple of days ago and a pic of Leslie gets pulled for violating standards? Sheesh....


EDIT:
Which standard was violated? I just read the "Standards" and don't see it.


Possibly just a we are tired of your gay love for Leslie Nielsen flag..

This is all the Leslie I'd guess must of us here want to see..

Extreme close up. Click pic to animate..
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Quoting 7544:
hmm 90l is looking better today with a 0% than it did all day yesterday building more conv is it still going to move east tia keep one eye on it
I don't think it will develop much, but it sure is going to add to rainfall totals in Florida as the front moves in.
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I've already had over half an inch of rain this morning in northwest hillsborough county. My yard has been submerged ever since Debby came through in June, and it won't be drying out anytime soon based on this pattern. Late tonight and tomorrow should be very rain in west central Florida.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Possibly, but everything else is El Nino. The trade winds in the Eastern Caribbean, the low instability for cyclone development are all characteristics of El Nino and now there are abnormally strong troughs are coming down bringing temperatures in the 50s and it's only early September. It's actually become a Modoki El Nino, this accounts as to why this hurricane season has become so active.


From the September 4th discussion:

"Recent values of the upper-ocean heat anomalies (slightly positive) and a near zero thermocline slope index reflect ENSO neutral conditions."

Just because there is no el nino does not mean that we can't see things in the Atlantic that remind us of an el nino, but then if we think that an el nino therefore exists ... we are just seeing things.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6020
Mike's getting his second wind, no doubt.
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931. 7544
hmm 90l is looking better today with a 0% than it did all day yesterday building more conv is it still going to move east tia keep one eye on it
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Quoting bappit:

They are predicting a weak el nino will develop. The atmosphere is still in neutral.

From the article you linked:

"The much-feared El Niño will develop weakly this month after mostly neutral conditions in August and persist through February of next year, the CPC predicted in its monthly report."


Possibly, but everything else is El Nino. The trade winds in the Eastern Caribbean, the low instability for cyclone development are all characteristics of El Nino and now there are abnormally strong troughs are coming down bringing temperatures in the 50s and it's only early September. It's actually become a Modoki El Nino, this accounts as to why this hurricane season has become so active.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm starting to have doubts about that... There's no doubt that this remains an El Nino year and that El Nino has had a definite impact on the season, but I'm starting to doubt it reaches official criteria at all and if it does it will likely be very brief as we transition likely to a neutral season next year.

Nope, we are in neutral. Check out the CPC web site.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6020
Quoting allancalderini:
If that is true Nadine ,Oscar,and Patty will be cape verde storms.

One of them will make it across all the way to pose a serious threat. They don't all recurve out as many people think.
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Don't need sunlight with this outbreak.. Conditions are soo ripe for Tornadoes that we have rotation already in a formed storm way ahead of the squall line.. This is going to be a classic Tornado Outbreak. SPC expected to issue a Tornado Watch for Long Island very soon.
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Checking in for a minute, I see the severe weather is beginning and Michael is looking better than this morning now with 105mph winds.

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Michael up to 105mph.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:

Weak El Niño will last through February 2013: CPC

They are predicting a weak el nino will develop. The atmosphere is still in neutral.

From the article you linked:

"The much-feared El Niño will develop weakly this month after mostly neutral conditions in August and persist through February of next year, the CPC predicted in its monthly report."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6020
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like it is organizing fast.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21173
NAO going negative..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21173
This is for the same area with the tornado warning.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

* AT 1043 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING
FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SPOTTER IN BROOKLYN HAS REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF THE WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 7393 4057 7402 4059 7400 4061 7404
4064 7404 4070 7401 4071 7397 4075 7396
4080 7391 4079 7387 4080 7385 4080 7379
4075 7370 4072 7373 4065 7373 4062 7377
4059 7374 4054 7394

$$

GOODMAN
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is the tornado warned storm in the NYC area:

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907. RTSplayer 10:36 AM EDT on September 08, 2012

Arctic ice melting at 'amazing' speed, scientists find

interesting read By David Shukman Science Editor, BBC News, in Svalbard

Wellll, gotta go to work, all y'all have a nice day, I'll be checking back in later tonight. Have a safe day everyone!

Go Canes!
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Quoting bassis:


Will daytime heating cause this line to start intensifying towards the southern boundary that ends in Tennessee


Very true. Supercells are forecasted to increase ahead of the line as well, which makes me think the SPC might go with a higher tornado threat. With shear is high, and is increasing, as well as CAPE.



AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY...SWRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081439Z - 081645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD
EVOLVE OUT OF A NARROW BAND OF TSTMS INVOF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO.
THE RISK FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL INCREASE WITH
ATTENDANT TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS.

DISCUSSION...A FEW CELLS WITHIN A NARROW BAND OF TSTMS IN THE
TRI-STATE AREA HAVE EXHIBITED TRANSIENT/WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FORCED ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION.
ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM SHEAR WAS ONLY AROUND 15-20 KT PER OKX/DIX VWP
DATA...THIS SHOULD COMPARATIVELY STRENGTHEN AS THE ACTIVITY EVOLVES
NWD THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH GRADUAL SURFACE HEATING AMIDST UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY SHOULD EXIST FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS TO BECOME SUSTAINED FOR LONGER DURATION AND LIKELY
INTENSIFY...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES
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This is the tornado warned storm in the NYC area:

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Tropical Storm LESLIE Forecast Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT22 KNHC 080832
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 62.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 62.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 62.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.9N 62.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 0SE 20SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 20SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.9N 61.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 33.6N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 38.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 44.5N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 48.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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A whole blog full of religion and politics a couple of days ago and a pic of Leslie gets pulled for violating standards? Sheesh....


EDIT:
Which standard was violated? I just read the "Standards" and don't see it.
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I just got put in a severe thunderstorm warning.... will have to see what we get here
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Just east of metro NYC.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1034 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT...

* AT 1033 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SHEEPSHEAD
BAY...OR NEAR FLATBUSH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CANARSIE...CROWN HEIGHTS...HOWARD BEACH...OZONE PARK...FOREST
HILLS...JAMAICA...LITTLE NECK...CLEARVIEW EXPRESSWAY...
WHITESTONE...JACKSON HEIGHTS...FLUSHING AND BAYSIDE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 7394 4058 7400 4079 7388 4081 7383
4080 7377 4078 7376 4078 7374 4076 7371
4074 7372 4055 7389 4055 7391
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 208DEG 20KT 4062 7392

$$

GOODMAN
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Quoting tornadolarkin:


That line is crazy, and on SPC mesoanalysis the line actually extends very far south, and will likely be strengthening. Base velocities are ridiculous behind this thing. The line ahead of it could become either a squall line or could become a line of supercells. The low pressure system is actually strengthening decently, and with the MLJ strengthening along with the LLJ strengthening, anticipate this to be a very dangerous day across the Northeast. If this line gets going, or multiple supercells form ahead of the main line itself, there is an isolated possibility that the SPC could upgrade to HIGH risk. I doubt they will though.


Will daytime heating cause this line to start intensifying towards the southern boundary that ends in Tennessee
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Quoting mcluvincane:


I highly doubt GW has anything to do with the derechos. You just can't blame everything that happens in weather patterns or events to GW.



On Neven's site there is a new post and discussion about an arctic high pressure development over Greenland that has been happening more frequently since 2007. They compared data for 5 year averages and it beats all 5 consecutive year groups on record.

It seems that low pressure systems form on the boundary of this high.

Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog: "Signs of Arctic Climate Change"

He links to another article and quotes it, but I have not yet read the entire link.



Anyway, while it's true you can't blame everything on GW, there seems to be no doubt that it is in fact rapidly changing ridge and trough features, as well as other steering features, and the storms that form on their boundaries.

Now this could be a 5 year "active" period for this pattern, or it could be a major change passing it's "tipping point," so that this becomes the new "normal". It would probably take another 5 to 10 years of data to really establish that.


What this means to my mind is faster melting in Greenland, since High Pressure corresponds to warmer temperatures.


I expect that a full meltdown of Winter Arctic Sea Ice will take at least several decades, but in the mean time, once the Summer Meltdown grows to an ice-free August and September (probably by 10 to 15 years from now,) Greenland will take up roughly half of the slack from the existing forcing and increased forcing from Albedo feedbacks, while the remaining excess heat will go into raising the ocean temperatures and atmospheric temperatures further still. This will continue to shrink the Winter Sea Ice Maximum, but I've noticed the Maximum shrinks at only about half to 3/4 the rate of the Summer minimum, so it will still be around for some time.

Enough for now.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:

Weak El Niño will last through February 2013: CPC

I'm starting to have doubts about that... There's no doubt that this remains an El Nino year and that El Nino has had a definite impact on the season, but I'm starting to doubt it reaches official criteria at all and if it does it will likely be very brief as we transition likely to a neutral season next year.
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That line is crazy, and on SPC mesoanalysis the line actually extends very far south, and will likely be strengthening. Base velocities are ridiculous behind this thing. The line ahead of it could become either a squall line or could become a line of supercells. The low pressure system is actually strengthening decently, and with the MLJ strengthening along with the LLJ strengthening, anticipate this to be a very dangerous day across the Northeast. If this line gets going, or multiple supercells form ahead of the main line itself, there is an isolated possibility that the SPC could upgrade to HIGH risk. I doubt they will though.
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Looks like the Northeast could have a very interesting day!

I'm in North Jersey, and I have plans to drive to the Philadelphia area today. I hope that isn't a dumb idea. Looking forward to the cooler weather on tap for tomorrow.
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Western New york state is getting pounded alright
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Quoting bassis:
Is there a record for a TS being stationary or in one general Lat/Lon?

Isaac was stationary at a higher lat. than Leslie.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.