90L in the Gulf disorganized; Leslie and Michael weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:27 PM GMT on September 07, 2012

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A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of Louisiana, Invest 90L, was almost torn apart last night by wind shear, but is making a bit of a comeback today. Visible satellite loops and surface observations from buoys and oil rigs in the Gulf show that 90L has an sloppy, elongated surface circulation. The area covered by heavy thunderstorms is relatively modest, and has been pushed to the south side of the circulation center by strong northerly winds that are creating a high 20 knots of wind shear. There is a large amount of dry air that surrounds 90L on all sides that is interfering with development. A hurricane hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate 90L today was cancelled, and has been rescheduled for Saturday afternoon.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Invest 90L taken at 11:58 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012.

Forecast for 90L
Wind shear over 90L is predicted to stay in the moderate to high range, 15 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then drop to the low range Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf are 28.5° - 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. 90L is essentially stationary this morning, but should begin a slow motion to the east-northeast tonight, in response to the steering flow from a trough of low pressure and its associated surface cold front approaching the Gulf Coast from the northwest. This trough should be capable of pulling 90L to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida by Sunday morning. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put these odds higher, at 30%.

Leslie weakens to a tropical storm
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to remain nearly stationary to the south of the island of Bermuda, and a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft found this morning that Leslie had weakened below hurricane strength, to a 70 mph tropical storm. An ocean probe launched by the aircraft found that the ocean temperatures at one location in Leslie were 24.5°C, a full 5°C (8°F) drop from when the storm first reached the area two days ago. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the west continue to drive dry air to Leslie's west into the core of the storm. The combined effect of shear and cool waters have eroded away Leslie's core, and the storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight, and an uncrewed NASA Global Hawk aircraft finished an HS3 Hurricane Research Mission into Leslie this morning.


Figure 2. Hurricane Leslie as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 10:45 am EDT Thursday, September 6, 2012. At the time, Leslie was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Leslie
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast should make Leslie start moving to the north at 5 mph by Saturday morning. The models have stayed with their more eastwards solution to Leslie's track, which keeps the threat of Bermuda receiving hurricane-force winds relatively low, since the island is expected to be on the weak (left) side of the storm. If the official NHC forecast verifies, tropical storm-force winds will just graze Bermuda Sunday morning through Sunday evening. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Friday night. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and once the storm moves away from the large pool of cool waters it has stirred up, the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow the storm to intensify to at least a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 30% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be beginning its closest pass to Bermuda. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 200 - 220 miles by Sunday.

Most of the models indicate Leslie is likely to make landfall in Newfoundland, Canada on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. However, the models have been trending more to the east with Leslie's track in recent runs, and given the uncertainty in 4-day hurricane forecasts, the storm could very well miss the island, passing to the northeast. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 12:20 pm EDT Thursday September 6, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
The only major hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Michael, has weakened, and is now a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye, but the storm is not as symmetric, and the eye no longer as distinct as was the case yesterday. Michael is far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming seven days.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that a new tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa today will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. This wave is predicted to exit Africa too far north to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Relix:
Now the wave behind 91L does seem to be the real deal for us in the islands.


It might go fishing like the SO MANY OTHERS..
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6168
Tornado in N.Y.C?.I'm praying for those people and their just getting started up there.We're next here in D.C.Right now the sun is bright and shiny.You couldn't even tell there was a server outbreak in N.Y right now.The clouds are thick though.
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This is very rare people..


No, it's not Kansas, it's Brooklyn
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
42HR 12Z GFS
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1122 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

CTZ001-013-NYZ065-066-091100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-
1122 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 635 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT AND DUTCHESS COUNTY OF EASTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOW REQUESTED FOR DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Activity has essentially stopped in the EPAC...
I'm surprised o_0.Especially since their is a developing El nino.Earlier in the season the east pacific was very active leading many to believe it was going to stay that way.Until the Atlantic stole the show.Some of the most recent T.C's over there were sheared messes.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Activity has come to a halt in the EPAC...


It was supposed to be very active with El Nino around,but now even the North Atlantic basin is about to surpass that basin in the ACE department.

Atlantic= 63.835
EPAC=68.4775
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994. DKNJ
How much can we expect the storms in the NE to intensify as the day goes on? Especially in NJ.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1127 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL NOON EDT...

* AT 1126 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MONSEY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
CITY...POMONA...HAVERSTRAW...PEEKSKILL AND YORKTOWN HEIGHTS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Quoting Skyepony:


Possibly just a we are tired of your gay love for Leslie Nielsen flag..

This is all the Leslie I'd guess must of us here want to see..

Extreme close up. Click pic to animate..




Personal attacks violate the standards don't they?
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Quoting zicoille:


At the beginning of the season, all the systems go south of Guadeloupe, and after they go north of the islands, and in the leewards, we never have good systems...Hopely that it will arrive soon...We badly need rain


Yes dude, I got very bored and disappointed in august when ALL the rain WAS ALWAYS FOR THE SAME ISLANDS.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6168
Quoting washingtonian115:
Most likely late September and into October when the activity shifts from Africa to the west.The fronts will start digging down also.
The fronts are already digging down.
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TORNADO WATCH 635 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-353-355-090100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0635.120908T1520Z-120909T0100Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY

LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY

NEW YORK HARBOR

PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS

SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY

FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM

$$
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...BOX...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Activity has essentially stopped in the EPAC...
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986. skook
Quoting HurricaneDan:



Supposed NYC Tornado from instagram





a source would be great..
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Praying my folks in Queens and Brooklyn stay safe during this severe weather outbreak.
Usually when the I-95 corridor has several server weather outbreaks in the summer that sometimes foreshadows that we could see big nor-easter's later in the fall/winter.I'm crossing my fingers here.El nino please gives us some snow!!.We've been thirsting here!.
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Issued By: NYS - Division of Homeland Security & Emergency Services

Issued On: 09/08/12 11:09 AM

Affected Jurisdictions: New York

Category / Publication: Press Release - General



High winds and possible tornadoes predicted for many parts of State

Jerome M. Hauer, Commissioner of the New York State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services (DHSES) today urged New Yorkers to be prepared as severe thunderstorms pass through many parts of the state this afternoon. Storms are forecasted to bring heavy rain, high winds and possible tornadoes, affecting mostly Western New York, Finger Lakes, Southern Tier, and Central New York regions. Storms may cause widespread power outages and possible wind damage.

Hauer urged New Yorkers to pay close attention to local radio and television reports to stay up to date with the storms' progress. As of 10:15 a.m. this morning, the State has received reports of very strong winds, damage and downed trees in western parts of the State.

"New Yorkers in the path of these severe storms should take proper precautions now," Hauer said. "Strong winds and heavy rain can be dangerous as well as causing serious damage, and our top priority must be that families and individuals in affected areas are kept safe. I urge all New Yorkers to pay attention to local radio and television reports for the latest information on the progress of these storms."

Hauer added that the State Emergency Operations Center in Albany was activated today at 11:00 a.m. to monitor the storms’ development as they move from western to eastern parts of the state as the day progresses, and to provide support to local government and community responders.

New Yorkers in the storms' paths should have an emergency plan in place as well as an emergency kit including items such as non-perishable food, water, a portable radio, flashlights and extra batteries.

“I strongly urge people to pay attention to Emergency Alert System (EAS) messages that carry local information and emergency orders, such as evacuation or travel restrictions,” Hauer said.

For more information, go to www.dhses.ny.gov. To sign up for emergency alerts and notifications, visit www.nyalert.gov.

#####

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Michael looks great. Seems to be making a run for major hurricane status again.
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Well as you may have seen on TWC, we just had a waterspout/tornado move across the rockaway penninsula. Damage is minor/moderate to buildings/trees in the area and we have a FD assignment operating.

I will try to post from an "insiders" prospective today, but kinda am hoping to get called into work (Severe Storms and overtime are my favoite combination)

Stay Safe Everyone!
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN CONNECTICUT
PARTS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW YORK
CITY NEW YORK TO 10 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF WESTFIELD
MASSACHUSETTS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...

DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND AND MOIST AXIS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BAND IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TO THE S. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WHERE THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM FARTHER TO THE
W THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH
THE RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS TORNADOES
WITH CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...THOMPSON
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979. Relix
Now the wave behind 91L does seem to be the real deal for us in the islands.
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Praying my folks in Queens and Brooklyn stay safe during this severe weather outbreak.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I've already had over half an inch of rain this morning in northwest hillsborough county. My yard has been submerged ever since Debby came through in June, and it won't be drying out anytime soon based on this pattern. Late tonight and tomorrow should be very rain in west central Florida.


In situations like this is where its good to live near the coast. I've had an incredible amount of rain since the rainy season started, and I've seen numerous street flooding episodes, yet it all quickly drains off. Not so for inland areas. Apparently some places have had significant flooding since Debby and the water has never gone down because it gets replenished by additional rounds of heavy rainfall.


With an El Nino winter approaching we probably won't have much of a "dry" season either. I had a feeling we would eventually start seeing a large amount of rain and flooding, because for the past several years it seems central Florida has struggled with drought on and off with only short term relief from it. I knew it would eventually come to an end and we would start seeing the opposite to balance things out.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
12Z GFS is now coming out!!:)
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974. Relix
91L should go N of the Islands. Around 14.5N it seems. Too high and with no ridge around... it may go fishing or be an EC threat.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
The one after 91? Has it even been born yet... Oh my goodness. Now we really are going to extremes
91L it's self will recurve out to sea in no mans land.It's the one after that gets sent more westward because of the high building back in..I'm skeptical at this point because the storm is still just a cluster of thunderstorms over Africa right now...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Leslie is a weird looking storm...


It's cool looking
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
The idea that the climate *needs* a single reason to change -- and moreover one we somehow we believe we can control through legislation -- is appealing to weak political minds, desperate to find a fig leaf for a failed ideology of command and control that gives them power to take resources from others and use them as they will.

I accept that the climate is changing. I accept that we -- being, as it were, significant members of the ecosystem -- have some kind of impact, for both good and ill.

But where I draw the line is that the so-called scientists, who have displayed no shortage of political motivation, are trying to assert as fact that we know the cause and how to fix it. Invariably, this requires an all-powerful government, informed by unaccountable experts, who dictate to everyone else what constitutes acceptable limits of human existence and activity.

I don't believe government-funded know-it-alls have any better chance of surviving the weather and climate change than free people.

I am fascinated by the changes that are happening. I cringe at the modern faith that somehow the changes we are experiencing are more dramatic than changes that have happened in aeons past, let alone something we can legislate away, oh, if only we had the political will (read: total agreement with no dissenters).

I love Dr. Masters like any other long-time member here. But he is human, and humans have opinions (often irrational ones, that we manage to rationalize), and no one, not even a "scientist" is immune to bias. The political left worships scientists as the new humanist priesthood, and get very cross with anyone who dares to doubt their altruistic motives. Even when we discover, alas, that they do indeed get involved in politics.

But none of this diminishes my interest to know more and understand what is going on. Nor does it diminish my experience of this site, and support of the people who run it, even when I perceive a sharp disagreement on matters of political significance.

I suspect the forces at work are far larger than we imagine and that we have not displayed sufficient humility before our own ignorance, is all. When Dr. Masters displays this humility -- which is the vast majority of the time -- I find his analysis very worthwhile. And I'm not really bothered by his forays into ideological rigidity. What's a little passion among friends?
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Interesting to note how low topped this convection is... It's producing wind to severe criteria but on radar it doesn't look like much more than a couple bands of showers. Very little hail threat today.

Another tornado warning, same general area but different storm.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1127 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL NOON EDT...

* AT 1126 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MONSEY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
CITY...POMONA...HAVERSTRAW...PEEKSKILL AND YORKTOWN HEIGHTS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4113 7412 4132 7399 4134 7384 4128 7374
4107 7403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 214DEG 22KT 4114 7404

$$

GOODMAN
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WoW!!!
Quoting HurricaneDan:



Supposed NYC Tornado from instagram
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
He must have undergone an EWRC or something last night. I thought the weakening would continue but he has other ideas...

I knew he was far from becoming Extra-Tropical. The ULL that was causing northerly shear probably retreated north.

Quoting Gorty:
The 06z GFS shows several storms during this month with some close calls.
Could see a Danielle/Earl scenario where one recurves early and the other one later. I guess we'll have to see some consistency with the 2nd storm. 1st storm already looks like it could qualify as a TD or TS if it were closer to home. May become one this afternoon.
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Quoting 7544:
looks like the one after 91L will be the one to watch the gfs takes it west all the way to the bahammas then recurves but that could change that would would be oscar
The one after 91? Has it even been born yet... Oh my goodness. Now we really are going to extremes
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Leslie is a weird looking storm...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1120 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CAYUGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
SOUTHWESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
ONTARIO COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
WAYNE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1117 AM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF
WEBSTER TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONESUS...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
CONESUS...
ONTARIO...
HONEOYE...
WILLIAMSON...
MARION...
SODUS...
NEWARK...
PHELPS...
GENEVA...
OSWEGO...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Not a surprise that Micheal is making a run at major again.I noted that this morning the environment was way different than the one he was in yesterday.
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He must have undergone an EWRC or something last night. I thought the weakening would continue but he has other ideas...

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Quoting bappit:

Nope, we are in neutral. Check out the CPC web site.

Well, technically it's neutral... Really though it's a warm neutral that behaves like an El Nino, a very weak one.
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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1112 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

NYC047-081-081530-
/O.CON.KOKX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120908T1530Z/
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-QUEENS NY-
1112 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM EDT FOR QUEENS
AND KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTIES...

AT 1111 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR CANARSIE...OR NEAR FLATBUSH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HOWARD
BEACH...OZONE PARK...FOREST HILLS...JAMAICA...LITTLE NECK...CLEARVIEW
EXPRESSWAY...WHITESTONE...FLUSHING AND BAYSIDE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 7386 4063 7391 4080 7385 4081 7382
4080 7379 4075 7370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1512Z 207DEG 21KT 4064 7387

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Quoting FireWeather161:
Good morning.. we (FDNY) are now operating in the Breezy Point section of Queens for a tornado touchdown and related damage.. More will follow.
ty, stay safe up there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Good morning.. we (FDNY) are now operating in the Breezy Point section of Queens for a tornado touchdown and related damage.. More will follow.

Update:

Mostly tree and minor damage.. nothing major and no serious injuries
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Quoting Grothar:


I was born there.


was it still connected to Africa??

nice animation Skye!

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

* AT 1043 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING
FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SPOTTER IN BROOKLYN HAS REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF THE WARNED AREA.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Michael up to 105mph.

Wow! May take a run to cat 3 again, wouldn't be surprised if it did.
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953. Gorty
The 06z GFS shows several storms during this month with some close calls.
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Teddy,is very interesting that the Atlantic is about to surpass the EPAC in ACE production with El Nino Modoki around. Why after a strong start,that basin has turned much slower and below the expectations by the experts?
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Quoting 7544:
looks like the one after 91L will be the one to watch the gfs takes it west all the way to the bahammas then recurves but that could change that would would be oscar

I would love to see an "Oscar the Grouch" lol
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.