90L in the Gulf disorganized; Leslie and Michael weaken
A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of Louisiana, Invest 90L, was almost torn apart last night by wind shear, but is making a bit of a comeback today. Visible satellite loops and surface observations from buoys and oil rigs in the Gulf show that 90L has an sloppy, elongated surface circulation. The area covered by heavy thunderstorms is relatively modest, and has been pushed to the south side of the circulation center by strong northerly winds that are creating a high 20 knots of wind shear. There is a large amount of dry air that surrounds 90L on all sides that is interfering with development. A hurricane hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate 90L today was cancelled, and has been rescheduled for Saturday afternoon.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Invest 90L taken at 11:58 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012.
Forecast for 90L
Wind shear over 90L is predicted to stay in the moderate to high range, 15 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then drop to the low range Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf are 28.5° - 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. 90L is essentially stationary this morning, but should begin a slow motion to the east-northeast tonight, in response to the steering flow from a trough of low pressure and its associated surface cold front approaching the Gulf Coast from the northwest. This trough should be capable of pulling 90L to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida by Sunday morning. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put these odds higher, at 30%.
Leslie weakens to a tropical storm
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to remain nearly stationary to the south of the island of Bermuda, and a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft found this morning that Leslie had weakened below hurricane strength, to a 70 mph tropical storm. An ocean probe launched by the aircraft found that the ocean temperatures at one location in Leslie were 24.5°C, a full 5°C (8°F) drop from when the storm first reached the area two days ago. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the west continue to drive dry air to Leslie's west into the core of the storm. The combined effect of shear and cool waters have eroded away Leslie's core, and the storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight, and an uncrewed NASA Global Hawk aircraft finished an HS3 Hurricane Research Mission into Leslie this morning.
Figure 2. Hurricane Leslie as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 10:45 am EDT Thursday, September 6, 2012. At the time, Leslie was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Forecast for Leslie
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast should make Leslie start moving to the north at 5 mph by Saturday morning. The models have stayed with their more eastwards solution to Leslie's track, which keeps the threat of Bermuda receiving hurricane-force winds relatively low, since the island is expected to be on the weak (left) side of the storm. If the official NHC forecast verifies, tropical storm-force winds will just graze Bermuda Sunday morning through Sunday evening. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Friday night. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and once the storm moves away from the large pool of cool waters it has stirred up, the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow the storm to intensify to at least a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 30% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be beginning its closest pass to Bermuda. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 200 - 220 miles by Sunday.
Most of the models indicate Leslie is likely to make landfall in Newfoundland, Canada on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. However, the models have been trending more to the east with Leslie's track in recent runs, and given the uncertainty in 4-day hurricane forecasts, the storm could very well miss the island, passing to the northeast. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.
Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 12:20 pm EDT Thursday September 6, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
The only major hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Michael, has weakened, and is now a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye, but the storm is not as symmetric, and the eye no longer as distinct as was the case yesterday. Michael is far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming seven days.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that a new tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa today will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. This wave is predicted to exit Africa too far north to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It might go fishing like the SO MANY OTHERS..
Source is here. NOt sure if it's legit, we'll see
The developing El Niño has become a Modiki El Niño, as seen on the animation CybrTeddy posted earlier:
coney island ?
Very dead, by the looks of it.
Seriously: It looks like some unholy cross between a wild boar and a hyena.
Interesting to note how low topped this convection is... It's producing wind to severe criteria but on radar it doesn't look like much more than a couple bands of showers. Very little hail threat today.
Haven't looked at it close enough to know whether this link applies or will today. Nonetheless, interesting observation you make.
Low topped supercells
Judging from the ears and the red/pink skin, it's more than likely a pig. A dead one at that.
G'day Hydrus,
Should be interesting if NAO does drop off as ECMWF indicates, from what recall the CPC's GFS ensembles are in similar vein...
The effects of the NAO's negative dip as seen from 500 mb height anomalies over past month correspond well -
Note as strong ridge developed over Greenland near 3rd week August, coincided with abnormally deep troughing / unseasonably cooler pattern over E half US, focused on the Cen US from Great Lakes / Midwest down to Gulf coast... That period was a welcome change for the drought-plagued Midwest as got a nice break with needed rainfall followed by cooler / drier wx and several record lows set... Even here in SE LA, had 5 mornings temps dropped into the up 60's and a few days break from hvy rainfall... before Isaac came visit to wrap up the month.
A Fire Department spokesman said there were reports of power lines down and possibly other damage in the Point Breeze section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens.
The National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for Queens and Brooklyn as a line of strong thunderstorms moved through the city.
The service said radar detected a "strong rotation" in the storm, but there was no immediate confirmation that a twister actually formed.
The warning was in effect through 11:30 a.m.
Read more: http://www.myfoxny.com/story/19490619/fdny-respond s-to-possible-tornado-in-nyc#ixzz25tTptyo7
Link
As for our touchdown, pretty much wrapped up for now. Nothing significant in the way of damage, But an amazing sight to see.
What was it called back then?
Tornado touchdown in queens. Battalion 47 on scene (10:36 CDT)
Link
I give up... What is it?
just a pig with the snout chewed off. mmm mmm bacon
999
WFUS51 KOKX 081527
TOROKX
NYC087-119-081600-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0007.120908T1527Z-120908T1600Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1127 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
* UNTIL NOON EDT...
* AT 1126 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MONSEY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
CITY...POMONA...HAVERSTRAW...PEEKSKILL AND YORKTOWN HEIGHTS
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 4113 7412 4132 7399 4134 7384 4128 7374
4107 7403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 214DEG 22KT 4114 7404
$$
Looks like a pig to me
That is disgusting, looks like some sort of horrible experimentation, probably a cooperation between billion dollar drug companies and the government, doing research for "the good of mankind"
The junk that human beings do disturbs me...
Personally, I favor the "pig with its snout chewed off" hypothesis.
He is beautiful compared to leslie..
Leslie
Ooorrr maybe it's just a bloated dead pig :P
But yeah, humans are terrible.
It's about as rare as anywhere else not in tornado alley. We've had tornados in Brooklyn multiple times in the past decade. It's even more common to have waterspouts.
I definitely see pig in it, but it doesn't look like it is purely swine. Furthermore, there have been a couple of deformed animals washed up on the beaches of the northeast, and even a human with deformed elongated fingers. I don't panic about government/big corporation deceit, but I don't try deny what goes on either.
Smashingly hilarious baby!
It doesn't look entirely like a pig though. I would have to see an honest study on that creature proving it's entirely a pig. When animals decay, it does change their appearance somewhat, however that doesn't account for everything in that photo.
Atlantis.
Sorry Doug..You seemed upset the other members here keep flagging out your mostly naked queer old man photos.. It was less an attack than an assumption about your obsession. Guess one I shouldn't have made.. Sorry for hurting your feelings.. Please stopping posting tasteful nudes, near nudes or any other picture of Leslie Nielsen.
The thing is, supporting the search for the unvarnished and unspun scientific truth doesn't make one a religious worshiper; it makes one a truth seeker. And in my experience, the two are very seldom one and the same.
2. Flagged.
I believe this also has to do with a large number of sub divisions which have recently been built around my area which block natural drainage into the many swamps.
If I were to get a quick two to three inches water would be in my house for the first time since it was built in the mid seventies. Very strange year
Looks like a partially decayed pig or dog.
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