Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

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Extraordinary melting of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has shattered the all-time low sea ice extent record set in September 2007, and sea ice continues to decline far below what has ever been observed. The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set. These organizations include the University of Washington Polar Science Center (a new record for low ice volume), the Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center in Norway, and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. A comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs shows the full story. Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 5, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The ice continues to melt, and has not reached the low for this year yet.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day at the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory.


Figure 2. Sea ice extent on September 5, 2012, showed that half of the polar ice cap was missing, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Why the Arctic sea ice is important
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The Autumn air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is increased melting in Greenland. We already saw an unprecedented melting event in Greenland this year, and as warming continues, the likelihood of these events increase.


Figure 3. August set a new record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.



Figure 4. Arctic sea ice death spiral as plotted by Jim Pettit using data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Huge storm pummels Alaska
A massive low pressure system with a central pressure of 970 mb swept through Alaska on Tuesday, generating hurricane-force wind gusts near Anchorage, Alaska that knocked out power to 55,000 homes. Mighty Alaskan storms like this are common in winter, but rare in summer and early fall. The National Weather Service in Anchorage said in their Wednesday forecast discussion that the forecast wind speeds from this storm were incredibly strong for this time of year--four to six standard anomalies above normal. A four-standard anomaly event occurs once every 43 years, and a five-standard anomaly event is a 1-in-4800 year event. However, a meteorologist I heard from who lives in the Anchorage area characterized the wind damage that actually occurred as a 1-in-10 year event. A few maximum wind gusts recorded on Tuesday during the storm:

McHugh Creek (Turnagain Arm)... ... ..88 mph
Paradise Valley (Potter Marsh)... ... 75 mph
Upper Hillside (1400 ft)... ... ... ... 70 mph
Anchorage port... ... ... ... ... ... ... .63 mph

The storm has weakened to a central pressure of 988 mb today, and is located just north of Alaska. The storm is predicted to bring strong winds of 25 - 35 mph and large waves to the edge of the record-thin and record-small Arctic ice cap, and may add to the unprecedented decline in Arctic sea ice being observed this summer.


Figure 5. An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this natural-color mosaic image on Aug. 6, 2012. The center of the storm at that date was located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. Image credit: NASA.

Arctic storms may be increasing due to climate change
This week's Alaskan storm is the second unusually strong low pressure system to affect the Arctic in the past month. On August 4 - 8, a mighty storm with a central pressure of 963 mb raged through the Arctic, bringing strong winds that helped scatter and break up Arctic sea ice. According to a detailed post at NASA Earth Observatory, that storm was in the top 3 percent for strongest storms ever recorded north of 70 degrees latitude. A study of long-term Arctic cyclone trends authored by a team led by John Walsh and Xiangdong Zhang of the University of Alaska Fairbanks found that number and intensity of Arctic cyclones has increased during the second half of the twentieth century, particularly during the summer. Dr. Zhang explained that climate change has caused sea ice to retreat markedly in recent decades and has also warmed Arctic Ocean temperatures. Such changes may be providing more energy and moisture to support cyclone development and persistence. The strong storms of this week and a month ago would have had far less impact on the ice just a decade ago, when the sea ice was much thicker and more extensive.

A sea ice decline double-whammy
The monster Arctic storms like we've seen this year have sped up the rate of sea ice loss, but increased water temperatures and air temperatures due to human-caused global warming are the dominant reasons for the record melting of the Arctic sea ice. A July 2012 study by Day et al. found that the most influential of the possible natural influences on sea ice loss was the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO has two phases, negative (cold) and positive (warm), which impact Arctic sea ice. The negative phase tends to create sea surface temperatures in the far north Atlantic that are colder than average. In this study, the AMO only accounted for 5% - 31% of the observed September sea ice decline since 1979. The scientists concluded that given the lack of evidence that natural forces were controlling sea ice fluctuations, the majority of sea ice decline we've seen during the 1953 - 2010 period was due to human causes.

Joe Romm has a more in-depth look at the new Arctic sea ice record and what it means for the future over at climateprogess.org.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

Turbulence (katy99780)
Beautiful orographic formations over the mountains on a windy evening.
Turbulence

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Leslie downgraded to 8 on HSI (unofficial).

Michael remains 16 (unofficial).
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Skyepony:
For those that suffered through ISAAC..in the aftermath a second storm is building..A mosquito storm. With West Nile out of hand this year, now is the time to act & fortify your defenses if need be...
Good advice, a man in Hillsborough county contracted the virus back in August. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-57 5-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-08 1100-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
408 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
451 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019- 025>028-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063-081000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASH INGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-
451 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES. A
HEAT ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 WILL END AT 7PM THIS
EVENING.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
FROM THE LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW AFTER
THE STORMS END EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

$$


FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

40
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VINNY04:
please dont start.... we just them quiet:)



OK sorry...Leslie looks rough
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Quoting K8eCane:
Satan has certainly proven what he professed in the Garden of Eden which was " hey God, youre a liar and i can run the world a lot better than you can". We see evidence that he is doing a great job eh?
please dont start.... we just got them quiet:)
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting goosegirl1:
Everyone has a right to believe as they will, and all beliefs are equally valid, so there's no point in arguing about any subject, really.

So if I believe that E=MC Hammer...it is just as valid as those who believe E=MC^2?

I don't think so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
975. Skyepony (Mod)
For those that suffered through ISAAC..in the aftermath a second storm is building..A mosquito storm. With West Nile out of hand this year, now is the time to act & fortify your defenses if need be...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks to those posting info re: the storms & passing on their knowledge and links.

Isn't there a place on this site for those who want to debate climate change to go debate it there?

(Just a little of unsolicited advice: I've found that debating climate change is a losing battle no matter which side you are on - either way the people you are fighting with will NOT EVER change their minds. It is like asking people from the far Left and the far Right to try to come to some sort of an agreement on pretty much anything - it won't happen. Doesn't happen. So it's best to avoid it.)
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Michael getting stretched, still has his eye, but dry air quickly approaching from the ULL to his north:



And Leslie made a mess of herself and I'm disappointed that she wasn't able to strengthen like what the models were saying a couple days ago. Since now it looks like she will stay well east of Bermuda:

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Interesting Heat facts. Austin Texas has recorded 265 days of temps over 100 in the past 5 yrs. The yearly average before the year 2000 was 12 a year so when they include the years 2000 and later this average will go up big time but I thought it was just me but it isnt, since 2000 it has been beyond Hot here throw in the Droughts and you have close to Hell, LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
969. 7544
gota admit 90l looks better now than it did all day yesterday and early this am while under only 5 k of shear this may be the window where it could form in the next 6 to 12 hours as it drift eastward keep a checking stranger things have happen with gulf systems
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Leslie now giving the Bahamas small swells.
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Quoting nyhurhunter:
So what caused the other record low sea ice extent 1,450 years ago, Humans?

Which record low sea ice extent would that be?
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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

LESLIE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY TOO LONG AND THE OCEAN BENEATH HAS
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...ONE OF THE AXBT SONDES LAUNCHED FROM
THE NOAA PLANE CURRENTLY IN LESLIE MEASURED A SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE OF 24.5 DEGREES CELSIUS
. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THE
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
981 MB...BUT BOTH SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ONLY SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. ONCE LESLIE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
COOL POOL IT HAS CREATED FOR ITSELF...THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LESLIE SHOULD HAVE
LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO RESULTING IN
LESLIE BEING NEARLY STATIONARY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION PRIMARILY IN THE FIRST 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.8N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 28.0N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 29.0N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 30.5N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 33.3N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 45.5N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, that's surprising. They knocked Leslie down to the Tropical Storm it is, after all:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT FORECAST TO REGAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH
...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 62.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. A NORTHWARD
TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN
SATURDAY.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT LESLIE COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
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Does it really matter that currently the planet isn't as warm as a few million or billon years ago?

Modern Human society did not exist at that time. What we need now is actions that would enable all 7 billions of us and counting, continue to survive (drought tolerant crops, food diversification, ongoing research on global weather pattern that would allow strategic placement of food production farm belts)

If just one year of bad drought can destabilize the entire global economy, can imagine the implication of succesive global weather disaster?

Btw, does that sound rather apocalyptic?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am returned to the assertion by some that the life span of Earth is not infinite. Her way is to do things slowly over time not necessarily in one giant collision. If indeed Earth is in a slow evolution to death we are in an extraordinary time of witnessing the "beginning" of the end of human civilization on this planet. It would otherwise be rather arrogant to believe that the human could never become extinct.
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Quoting uptxcoast:



DOOOM!! lol

How many hours out is that?

Thanks for the update!!!! Always appreciated!
240 hrs. but it takes a track like what the BAMS model is showing, could be a piece of 90L that gets left behind after the front stalls and swings back around.
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960. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting VINNY04:
was the flight into 90L cancelled today?


There was a flight for this morning that was to go if it developed. Doesn't look like it did. Kermit is on the way back from Leslie.. Here's the last vortex message..

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 13:44Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 12L in 2012
Storm Name: Leslie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 13:15:26Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°37'N 62°10'W (26.6167N 62.1667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 424 miles (682 km) to the SSE (158°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 77 nautical miles (89 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 126° at 67kts (From the SE at ~ 77.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 982mb (29.00 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,388m (7,835ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,524m (8,281ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Fix Determined By: Penetration
O. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:44:04Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:28:47Z
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Apparently strengthening from 985millibars to 981millibars... BUT for it's 8th day as a NamedStorm,
H.Leslie's path was 26.3n62.4w-26.5n62.2w-26.5n62.2w-26.6n62.2w-26.7n62.2w

Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie for 7Sept.12pmGMT
All times in GMT. BDA is Bermuda
The southernmost kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 5th day as a NamedStorm
The middle kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 6th day
The top kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 7th day
5th day: Leslie traveled 88miles(141kilometres) @ 3.65mph(5.88km/h) over 141,103metres
6th day: Leslie traveled 53miles(086kilometres) @ 2.22mph(3.58km/h) over 085,829metres
7th day: Leslie traveled 62miles(100kilometres) @ 2.58mph(4.15km/h) over 099,528metres
8th day: Leslie traveled 32miles(052kilometres) @ 1.35mph(2.17km/h) over 051,979metres
The southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
6Sept.12pm:H.Leslie had been headed for passage131miles(212kilometres)East of Bermuda
6Sept.06pm: H.Leslie had been headed for passage 378miles(609kilometres)SEast of Bermuda
7Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for nowhere
7Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 143miles(230kilometres)East of Bermuda
7Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie was heading for passage 143miles(230kilometres)East of Bermuda in ~2weeks3hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste 32.388n62.4w, 28.697n59.931w, 26.5n62.2w, 32.392n62.2w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 23.6n62.7w- 23.8n62.8w- 24.1n62.7w- 24.5n62.5w- 24.8n62.5w, 24.8n62.5w-25.0n62.6w- 25.1n62.7w- 25.3n62.8w- 25.5n62.8w, 25.5n62.8w- 25.8n62.7w- 26.1n62.5w- 26.2n62.4w- 26.3n62.4w, 26.3n62.4w- 26.5n62.2w- 26.5n62.2w- 26.6n62.2w- 26.7n62.2w, 26.3n62.4w-26.5n62.2w, 26.5n62.2w-26.5n62.2w, 26.5n62.2w-26.6n62.2w, 26.6n62.2w-26.7n62.2w, 26.6n62.2w-32.392n62.2w, 32.368n64.647w-32.392n62.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
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Quoting hydrus:
All El-Nino events are different, and this one ( if it ever officially forms ) will be no exception.

Tropical oceans have warmed but the atmosphere is not showing an el nino response. I wonder if the Arctic sea ice loss has anything to do with the funny atmosphere.

Just speculating, maybe with the atmosphere warming up in the arctic that a 3 C warmup in the oceans near the equator is not as big a deal as it used to be.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
90L honestly if windshear can relax this thing can take off.



Under 20 knots of shear, tongue of 5 knots to its west:



this thing is a composite of short range radar, but if you go to individual stations and use long range, you can see a few decent thunderstorms rotating around the northern side.

There's a little more going on that is apparent from the satellite alone anyway.


Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
I'll be back when there is a new blog. Till then, I hope whatever is going on here now doesn't get out of control.

Goodnight.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Last nights run of the Canadian Model shows a 1004 mb. system heading towards Texas:






DOOOM!! lol

How many hours out is that?

Thanks for the update!!!! Always appreciated!
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953. Skyepony (Mod)
State Farm is going to court..again. This time over IKE..

Warner's lawsuit alleges that State Farm documents establish a clear internal policy of intentionally denying consumer claims for roof damage similar to what Warner experienced. Warner's attorney, Steve Mostyn, claims the systematic denial of those types of claims may have quietly saved State Farm close to $1 billion.

Mostyn says State Farm documents obtained in the lawsuit reveal an attempt by managers to hide the company's policy of non-payment from state insurance regulators.

"They absolutely went through an effort to cover it up," Mostyn said. "These emails are coming from the top. They're setting policy. And that policy by their own admission … shows conclusively they have not paid thousands of people."
More Here..
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I will try again :))

If you want people to really listen to you, try treating them with respect. Compassion, maybe. We are all stuck here on the same chunk of rock, orbiting around a boring star in a ho-hum corner of an infinite universe. We are all "we" have. Everyone has a right to believe as they will, and all beliefs are equally valid, so there's no point in arguing about any subject, really. Simply accept the fact that there are 7 billion others out there just like you, suffering from the same angst.

You as an individual are nothing, just a puff of atoms on a backwater planet. But everyone around you? They are precious, never-to-be replaced works of genetic art. If we all thought this way, would we still argue?

Probably :)...
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951. yoboi
Quoting GTcooliebai:
quite possible, Kori made a note of that in his blogs, saying if the system moved far enough south and west that the trough could miss picking it up.


i live in southwest la this will be our first cool front, the first one usually does not digg down real south in the gom usually takes oct front to do that, example when the front picked up wilma in 2005 think that was oct timeframe.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2374
So what caused the other record low sea ice extent 1,450 years ago, Humans?
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Totally agree with you.
thank you! at least some one agrees with me. but lets not go there....
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Notice BAMS and BAMM both have 90L recurving under the front back to the SW in the Gulf.
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Leslie already listed as a TS here:



Link
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 103
was the flight into 90L cancelled today?
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Quoting yoboi:


what will happen if the front does not pick it up??? swla texas bound??
quite possible, Kori made a note of that in his blogs, saying if the system moved far enough south and west that the trough could miss picking it up.
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Quoting VINNY04:
never said atheists were fools......


I didnt say you did, i was just portraying the atmosphere in here.

Anyway, im gone.
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Quoting percylives:


IMO, our window of opportunity to address AGW is rapidly closing and it is time for action. The record Arctic Sea Ice loss is allowing that ocean to warm significantly and it is allowing more water vapor to enter the Arctic atmosphere. This is already causing more atmospheric energy release and generating the big Arctic storms, such as the one occurring now. These storms not only break-up the remaining ice and allow more warming, they cause more vigorous mixing of the warmer upper levels of the Arctic Ocean with lower levels. This brings the ocean's "new heat" into contact with the methane clathrates on the ocean bottom. If these clathrates start melting and releasing significant amounts of methane, it will be a significant positive feedback to atmospheric heating. This will not have to go on long before we completely lose control of global warming and enter a possible extinction scenario. Indeed, the preliminary data from the last two Barrow, AK, samples show a spike in methane. See the graph here.


Great data, thanks for the link. I have reproduced the CO2 (scary linear trend) and methane components of this with some comments below:



Here is the methane graph, just looking at a couple of years:



Notice that there were also methane spikes in jan-feb 2011, in the middle of winter. So it looks like Methane can spike for almost no reason as well. Has there been an explanation for the early 2011 spike? Because if we knew what the cause was in 2011, we could perhaps rule that out with the recent data.
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Quoting WeatherMSK:
I am proud of Michael (my name) for becoming the strongest hurricane yet this season!
congrats my friend. may it stay that way :P
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Quoting washingtonian115:
What get's me is that some people make it sound like you can't believe in a higher persaon or "God".Let people believe in what they believe in.If they refuse to believe in GW then okay that's them.Why won't people just agree to disagree and call it a day?.Obviously no one can convince the other party.


Thanks for a good and wise, peaceful post. It's funny, in a society so packed with knowledge, we forget that intelligence has nothing to do with knowledge, its how you handle knowledge.
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Quoting NEwxguy:
Oops,sorry,clicked on this blog thinking it was the tropics blog


Just thinking the same thing!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

#760
Where in my comment did I say it was anything to do with climate change/GW????

I was just sharing fact about the winter we have just come through down here. Is that not allowed?
I wouldn't worry about it, it seems some folks are taking things way out of proportion, and then you have the ones tying to force religion down your throat. By the way I'm a christian too and believe in God, but we shouldn't be telling people what or who they have to believe in, let the people decide that on their own, it's their beliefs, and I would be the first to respect that.
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I am proud of Michael (my name) for becoming the strongest hurricane yet this season!
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Can we stop all the religion bashing now too?

Like the: Christians are so wack and extreme, they are all fools
And the : Its so sad there are no christians anymore, atheists are all fools.


People on this blog arent horrible people for believing in God.
And Vice Versa.
never said atheists were fools......
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
The last thing the Gulf Coast needs is for 90L to develop, but at least it would give us some relief on the blog from GW, politics and religion.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.