Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

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Extraordinary melting of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has shattered the all-time low sea ice extent record set in September 2007, and sea ice continues to decline far below what has ever been observed. The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set. These organizations include the University of Washington Polar Science Center (a new record for low ice volume), the Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center in Norway, and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. A comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs shows the full story. Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 5, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The ice continues to melt, and has not reached the low for this year yet.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day at the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory.


Figure 2. Sea ice extent on September 5, 2012, showed that half of the polar ice cap was missing, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Why the Arctic sea ice is important
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The Autumn air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is increased melting in Greenland. We already saw an unprecedented melting event in Greenland this year, and as warming continues, the likelihood of these events increase.


Figure 3. August set a new record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.



Figure 4. Arctic sea ice death spiral as plotted by Jim Pettit using data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Huge storm pummels Alaska
A massive low pressure system with a central pressure of 970 mb swept through Alaska on Tuesday, generating hurricane-force wind gusts near Anchorage, Alaska that knocked out power to 55,000 homes. Mighty Alaskan storms like this are common in winter, but rare in summer and early fall. The National Weather Service in Anchorage said in their Wednesday forecast discussion that the forecast wind speeds from this storm were incredibly strong for this time of year--four to six standard anomalies above normal. A four-standard anomaly event occurs once every 43 years, and a five-standard anomaly event is a 1-in-4800 year event. However, a meteorologist I heard from who lives in the Anchorage area characterized the wind damage that actually occurred as a 1-in-10 year event. A few maximum wind gusts recorded on Tuesday during the storm:

McHugh Creek (Turnagain Arm)... ... ..88 mph
Paradise Valley (Potter Marsh)... ... 75 mph
Upper Hillside (1400 ft)... ... ... ... 70 mph
Anchorage port... ... ... ... ... ... ... .63 mph

The storm has weakened to a central pressure of 988 mb today, and is located just north of Alaska. The storm is predicted to bring strong winds of 25 - 35 mph and large waves to the edge of the record-thin and record-small Arctic ice cap, and may add to the unprecedented decline in Arctic sea ice being observed this summer.


Figure 5. An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this natural-color mosaic image on Aug. 6, 2012. The center of the storm at that date was located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. Image credit: NASA.

Arctic storms may be increasing due to climate change
This week's Alaskan storm is the second unusually strong low pressure system to affect the Arctic in the past month. On August 4 - 8, a mighty storm with a central pressure of 963 mb raged through the Arctic, bringing strong winds that helped scatter and break up Arctic sea ice. According to a detailed post at NASA Earth Observatory, that storm was in the top 3 percent for strongest storms ever recorded north of 70 degrees latitude. A study of long-term Arctic cyclone trends authored by a team led by John Walsh and Xiangdong Zhang of the University of Alaska Fairbanks found that number and intensity of Arctic cyclones has increased during the second half of the twentieth century, particularly during the summer. Dr. Zhang explained that climate change has caused sea ice to retreat markedly in recent decades and has also warmed Arctic Ocean temperatures. Such changes may be providing more energy and moisture to support cyclone development and persistence. The strong storms of this week and a month ago would have had far less impact on the ice just a decade ago, when the sea ice was much thicker and more extensive.

A sea ice decline double-whammy
The monster Arctic storms like we've seen this year have sped up the rate of sea ice loss, but increased water temperatures and air temperatures due to human-caused global warming are the dominant reasons for the record melting of the Arctic sea ice. A July 2012 study by Day et al. found that the most influential of the possible natural influences on sea ice loss was the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO has two phases, negative (cold) and positive (warm), which impact Arctic sea ice. The negative phase tends to create sea surface temperatures in the far north Atlantic that are colder than average. In this study, the AMO only accounted for 5% - 31% of the observed September sea ice decline since 1979. The scientists concluded that given the lack of evidence that natural forces were controlling sea ice fluctuations, the majority of sea ice decline we've seen during the 1953 - 2010 period was due to human causes.

Joe Romm has a more in-depth look at the new Arctic sea ice record and what it means for the future over at climateprogess.org.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

Turbulence (katy99780)
Beautiful orographic formations over the mountains on a windy evening.
Turbulence

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What one believes metaphysically is a matter of faith. This is a faith that has limits in the physical world; it is one that is personal and spiritual, and one should be free to believe as they may.

However, what one believes physically is a matter of fact. There must be physical evidence that supports this belief. It should be founded in evidence and consistently tested. The results should be repeatable and have no limit in the physical world.

One should not be free of ridicule to "believe" in disproved theories (e.g., the world is flat and the sun rotates around it), nor should one free of scrutiny to give the metaphysical physically-causal attributes for these would not be repeatable.
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The Weatherman Is Not a Moron




Link
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1031. VINNY04
8 days till the NHL CBA expires. for those who care to know....
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
!

-


*move along*
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1029. bappit
Quoting MNhockeymama:


I didn't say don't talk about it. I said go somewhere else and talk about it. Debate it all you want. Just please, can we please stick to the fact that there are 3 storms and more on the way? Not to mention crazy weather happening all over the US (and other places) that may or may not be caused by AGW but debating it here isn't going to change or solve anything because it is weather that is happening right now and personally I'd rather see what is going on right now than to debate wth caused it.
TIA

Ehhh, Leslie is dog meat. 90L never was. Michael is fading. They picked a pretty good time to get this topic out of the way. I was impressed by the restraint shown on the blog the last couple of weeks about the record minimum set back in August.
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Is there a way to search for all posts you have ever made on the blog, for a specific comment or sentence?!

I may need to look up something I said a few weeks ago, due to an ironic sequence of present-day events.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting K8eCane:


I think theres a blocking ridge there but not sure. It might be an ULL but someting is blocking her. I could be wrong. Im learning too. Have been for 6 years but i am a slow learner LOL

Thanks! I hear ya: slow learner - lol!
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1026. VINNY04
Quoting K8eCane:


oh my goodness...GO TARHEELS
oh boy here we go again....but i love to argue this one!
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Quoting goosegirl1:


You are creating an arguement based on something yo know to be a fallacy. Please stick to facts. Facts don't change.

Sure they do. Facts are frequently modified by new information.
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Straying away from the current blog topic for a moment: congrats to TS Leslie for being the first storm this year to go into double digits where ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) is concerned. Leslie now leads the season, with an ACE of 10.3025 and counting. Meanwhile, Michael is quickly climbing the ranks, having accumulated an ACE so far of 7.0475. (Michael will be in third place by the end of the day, and second place tomorrow unless she falls apart.)

FWIW, 2012's overall ACE of just under 61 is larger than the total amount for all of 1997 or 2009 (and 2002's total of 65 will be surpassed by morning).

ACE

There's now been a at least one active storm in the Atlantic every day for the past 23. That is, since Gordon formed on August 16.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13625
1022. K8eCane
Quoting MNhockeymama:


Why couldn't she go west? (sorry if that's a dumb question - trying to learn, that's all.)


I think theres a blocking ridge there but not sure. It might be an ULL but someting is blocking her. I could be wrong. Im learning too. Have been for 6 years but i am a slow learner LOL
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.
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1020. bappit
Quoting Skyepony:
Quoting nyhurhunter:
So what caused the other record low sea ice extent 1,450 years ago, Humans?


It was more a local warming event at the time due to a certain alignment in the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation & El Niño. Here is some more on it..

"The Medieval period is found to display warmth that
matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels
globally. This period is marked by a tendency for La Niña–like conditions in the tropical Pacific.
The coldest temperatures of the Little Ice Age are observed over the interval 1400 to 1700 C.E.,
with greatest cooling over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents. The patterns of
temperature change imply dynamical responses of climate to natural radiative forcing changes
involving El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation."
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1) 9.52 Leslie 8) 2.45 Debby
2) 9.47 Isaac 9) 1.44 Florence
3) 8.19 Gordon 10) 1.38 Alberto
4) 7.71 Ernesto 11) 0.865 Beryl
5) 7.51 Kirk 12) 0.245 Helene
6) 5.43 Michael 13) 0.245 Joyce
7) 2.72 Chris
Total: 57.2

Damage
(millions
USD) Deaths
3,061 61


Problem with ACE is that only the portion of that value which actually effected land should be counted when rating a storm.

The entire value is useful in terms of comparing the activity of a season or a storm over it's lifetime for climatological purposes, but it's useless for rating a storm's impacts on humanity.

More useful would be if the computer models predicted the total ACE score, Ike, and HSI effecting land ahead of time, to use as a forecasting tool...


Adding a few severity index calculations to each frame of a model is an insignificant amount of processing, and I'm perplexed as to why it hasn't already been implemented, especially on HWRF and GFDL.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting K8eCane:


I dont think she can go west. But she can sit there and "spinout"


Why couldn't she go west? (sorry if that's a dumb question - trying to learn, that's all.)
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1017. K8eCane
Quoting SrChiefFan1:


Don't be bringing sports into this blog...It is a weather blog...Go Hogs! ;)


oh my goodness...GO TARHEELS
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1016. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting VINNY04:
sorry that was for Plant City. Go Gators!


Don't be bringing sports into this blog...It is a weather blog...Go Hogs! ;)
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1014. VINNY04
Quoting Bielle:


This would be helpful perhaps if we knew the location.
my bad. its plant city. its in florida.
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Quoting Bielle:


This would be helpful perhaps if we knew the location.
So, by all means, please quote the WHOLE thing...
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Quoting bappit:

The deniers are perfectly happy if we don't talk about it.


I didn't say don't talk about it. I said go somewhere else and talk about it. Debate it all you want. Just please, can we please stick to the fact that there are 3 storms and more on the way? Not to mention crazy weather happening all over the US (and other places) that may or may not be caused by AGW but debating it here isn't going to change or solve anything because it is weather that is happening right now and personally I'd rather see what is going on right now than to debate wth caused it.
TIA
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1011. 7544
90l starting to fill now at this hour
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1010. VINNY04
Quoting seminolesfan:
Like you posting your entire forecast outlook without even including the location is a good use of blog space?
sorry that was for Plant City. Go Gators!
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
I'm out before the blog police start accusing me of policing the blog...
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1008. Bielle
Quoting VINNY04:
Friday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. Low of 70F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 90F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. Low of 72F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Sunday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 88F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

Sunday Night
Overcast with thunderstorms and rain showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Monday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the morning, then overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the evening, then overcast. Fog overnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Tuesday
Overcast in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 90F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday
Partly cloudy. High of 90F. Winds from the NE at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 88F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 66F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 86F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Friday Night
Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 64F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 88F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 88F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Monday
Partly cloudy. High of 86F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Monday Night
Clear. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph

should be an interesting yet quite nice week.


This would be helpful perhaps if we knew the location.
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1007. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting nyhurhunter:
So what caused the other record low sea ice extent 1,450 years ago, Humans?


It was more a local warming event at the time due to a certain alignment in the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation & El Niño. Here is some more on it..
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1006. K8eCane
Quoting 7544:


maybe now a weaker leslie will go west lol


I dont think she can go west. But she can sit there and "spinout"
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1005. LargoFl

000
WTNT42 KNHC 071451
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

LESLIE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY TOO LONG AND THE OCEAN BENEATH HAS
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...ONE OF THE AXBT SONDES LAUNCHED FROM
THE NOAA PLANE CURRENTLY IN LESLIE MEASURED A SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE OF 24.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THE
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
981 MB...BUT BOTH SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ONLY SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. ONCE LESLIE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
COOL POOL IT HAS CREATED FOR ITSELF...THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LESLIE SHOULD HAVE
LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO RESULTING IN
LESLIE BEING NEARLY STATIONARY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION PRIMARILY IN THE FIRST 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.8N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 28.0N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 29.0N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 30.5N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 33.3N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 45.5N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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1004. VINNY04
Quoting K8eCane:


Yes...Let em go to church if they want to. Not our place to fix it. Leslie is almost dead isnt she?
dont know i havent checked on leslie for a while. havent payed any attention to her because she isnt close to florida
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Today's recon flight into 90L was cancelled. They will try again tomorrow, if warranted.


Pressure has dropped by an amazing rate of 1mb per 8 hours.

Woo hoo.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1002. 7544
Quoting K8eCane:


Yes...Let em go to church if they want to. Not our place to fix it. Leslie is almost dead isnt she?


maybe now a weaker leslie will go west lol
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ACE (104kt) (Source) %u2014 Storm:
1) 9.52 Leslie 8) 2.45 Debby
2) 9.47 Isaac 9) 1.44 Florence
3) 8.19 Gordon 10) 1.38 Alberto
4) 7.71 Ernesto 11) 0.865 Beryl
5) 7.51 Kirk 12) 0.245 Helene
6) 5.43 Michael 13) 0.245 Joyce
7) 2.72 Chris
Total: 57.2

Damage
(millions
USD)
3,061

Deaths
61
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1000. Jstn568
Quoting VINNY04:
it gets old after a while.


Agreed.
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Quoting VINNY04:
it gets old after a while.
Like you posting your entire forecast outlook without even including the location is a good use of blog space?
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Quoting VINNY04:
quit!!!!!!!


Yes...Let em go to church if they want to. Not our place to fix it. Leslie is almost dead isnt she?
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Quoting Birthmark:

So if I believe that E=MC Hammer...it is just as valid as those who believe E=MC^2?

I don't think so.


You are creating an arguement based on something yo know to be a fallacy. Please stick to facts. Facts don't change.
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Today's recon flight into 90L was cancelled. They will try again tomorrow, if warranted.
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it gets old after a while.
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Quoting Jstn568:



Telling people to read the book of Revelations pretty much sounds like you're forcing religion on people.

Please just keep religion out of it. This is an exceptional blog and it is unfortunate to see people getting riled up by anything other than the weather.


"If we open a quarrel between past and present, we shall find that we have lost the future." (If you believe in the word of Winston Churchill)
quit!!!!!!!
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
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Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Sometimes I read this blog and feel like its a transcript of the conversations at someones local Denny's...
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Friday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. Low of 70F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 90F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. Low of 72F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Sunday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 88F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

Sunday Night
Overcast with thunderstorms and rain showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Monday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the morning, then overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the evening, then overcast. Fog overnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Tuesday
Overcast in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 90F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday
Partly cloudy. High of 90F. Winds from the NE at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 88F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 66F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 86F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Friday Night
Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 64F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 88F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 88F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Monday
Partly cloudy. High of 86F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Monday Night
Clear. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph

should be an interesting yet quite nice week.
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
355 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...

.A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO AROUND
20 PERCENT AND 20-FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN
TO DECREASE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>208-217>221-228-072100-
/O.CON.KEWX.FW.A.0003.120908T1700Z-120909T0000Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE- KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-MAVERICK-ZA VALA-FRIO-
ATASCOSA-WILSON-DIMMIT-
355 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...THE FOLLOWING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES...
LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON...VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...REAL...
KERR...BANDERA...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...BLANCO...HA YS...
TRAVIS...BASTROP...LEE...KINNEY...UVALDE...MEDINA. ..BEXAR...
COMAL...GUADALUPE...CALDWELL...MAVERICK...ZAVALA.. .FRIO...
ATASCOSA...WILSON...DIMMIT.

* 20-FOOT WIND...15 TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...20 TO 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 4 DAYS.
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$

FOR INFORMATION ON BURN BANS PLEASE VISIT THE TEXAS INTERAGENCY
COORDINATION CENTER WEBSITE AT: TICC.TAMU.EDU
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MNhockeymama:
Thanks to those posting info re: the storms & passing on their knowledge and links.

Isn't there a place on this site for those who want to debate climate change to go debate it there?

(Just a little of unsolicited advice: I've found that debating climate change is a losing battle no matter which side you are on - either way the people you are fighting with will NOT EVER change their minds. It is like asking people from the far Left and the far Right to try to come to some sort of an agreement on pretty much anything - it won't happen. Doesn't happen. So it's best to avoid it.)

The deniers are perfectly happy if we don't talk about it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Leslie stays stationary, couldnt she miss the trough?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Leslie downgraded to 8 on HSI (unofficial).

Michael remains 16 (unofficial).
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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