Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

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Extraordinary melting of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has shattered the all-time low sea ice extent record set in September 2007, and sea ice continues to decline far below what has ever been observed. The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set. These organizations include the University of Washington Polar Science Center (a new record for low ice volume), the Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center in Norway, and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. A comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs shows the full story. Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 5, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The ice continues to melt, and has not reached the low for this year yet.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day at the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory.


Figure 2. Sea ice extent on September 5, 2012, showed that half of the polar ice cap was missing, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Why the Arctic sea ice is important
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The Autumn air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is increased melting in Greenland. We already saw an unprecedented melting event in Greenland this year, and as warming continues, the likelihood of these events increase.


Figure 3. August set a new record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.



Figure 4. Arctic sea ice death spiral as plotted by Jim Pettit using data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Huge storm pummels Alaska
A massive low pressure system with a central pressure of 970 mb swept through Alaska on Tuesday, generating hurricane-force wind gusts near Anchorage, Alaska that knocked out power to 55,000 homes. Mighty Alaskan storms like this are common in winter, but rare in summer and early fall. The National Weather Service in Anchorage said in their Wednesday forecast discussion that the forecast wind speeds from this storm were incredibly strong for this time of year--four to six standard anomalies above normal. A four-standard anomaly event occurs once every 43 years, and a five-standard anomaly event is a 1-in-4800 year event. However, a meteorologist I heard from who lives in the Anchorage area characterized the wind damage that actually occurred as a 1-in-10 year event. A few maximum wind gusts recorded on Tuesday during the storm:

McHugh Creek (Turnagain Arm)... ... ..88 mph
Paradise Valley (Potter Marsh)... ... 75 mph
Upper Hillside (1400 ft)... ... ... ... 70 mph
Anchorage port... ... ... ... ... ... ... .63 mph

The storm has weakened to a central pressure of 988 mb today, and is located just north of Alaska. The storm is predicted to bring strong winds of 25 - 35 mph and large waves to the edge of the record-thin and record-small Arctic ice cap, and may add to the unprecedented decline in Arctic sea ice being observed this summer.


Figure 5. An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this natural-color mosaic image on Aug. 6, 2012. The center of the storm at that date was located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. Image credit: NASA.

Arctic storms may be increasing due to climate change
This week's Alaskan storm is the second unusually strong low pressure system to affect the Arctic in the past month. On August 4 - 8, a mighty storm with a central pressure of 963 mb raged through the Arctic, bringing strong winds that helped scatter and break up Arctic sea ice. According to a detailed post at NASA Earth Observatory, that storm was in the top 3 percent for strongest storms ever recorded north of 70 degrees latitude. A study of long-term Arctic cyclone trends authored by a team led by John Walsh and Xiangdong Zhang of the University of Alaska Fairbanks found that number and intensity of Arctic cyclones has increased during the second half of the twentieth century, particularly during the summer. Dr. Zhang explained that climate change has caused sea ice to retreat markedly in recent decades and has also warmed Arctic Ocean temperatures. Such changes may be providing more energy and moisture to support cyclone development and persistence. The strong storms of this week and a month ago would have had far less impact on the ice just a decade ago, when the sea ice was much thicker and more extensive.

A sea ice decline double-whammy
The monster Arctic storms like we've seen this year have sped up the rate of sea ice loss, but increased water temperatures and air temperatures due to human-caused global warming are the dominant reasons for the record melting of the Arctic sea ice. A July 2012 study by Day et al. found that the most influential of the possible natural influences on sea ice loss was the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO has two phases, negative (cold) and positive (warm), which impact Arctic sea ice. The negative phase tends to create sea surface temperatures in the far north Atlantic that are colder than average. In this study, the AMO only accounted for 5% - 31% of the observed September sea ice decline since 1979. The scientists concluded that given the lack of evidence that natural forces were controlling sea ice fluctuations, the majority of sea ice decline we've seen during the 1953 - 2010 period was due to human causes.

Joe Romm has a more in-depth look at the new Arctic sea ice record and what it means for the future over at climateprogess.org.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

Turbulence (katy99780)
Beautiful orographic formations over the mountains on a windy evening.
Turbulence

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Quoting wxchaser97:

First I don't know what happened and second Wash, I'm pretty sure, is a woman.
oh ok. i wouldnt know. i dont know any of yall.
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, I was talking about it and I was told by a few people in here that even though Leslie was large, her winds wasn't strong enough to cause up-welling.



I can't understand why some people here didn't think about it like we did. A large system barely moving is going to cause up-welling. Wash, I guess great minds think alike. ay mate!!
Yes.I also thought the hype mania of Bermuda having to prepare for a cat 3 4 or 5 like some people were saying was a bit much.My peak intensity for Leslie was a cat 2 with winds of 105-110mph.The steering currents just wasn't in this storms favor and thank goodness Micheal intensified more than forecast as he will pull Leslie more eastward away from them.
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Quoting VINNY04:
it does i was wondering how he did that......

First I don't know what happened and second Wash, I'm pretty sure, is a woman.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm surprised to see them do that for a storm that is not a serious threat to the United States.


But reckon they should for all storms, if for at least research reasons?! I would think sending out craft (manned or unmanned) would also be beneficial. Doesn't matter whether it's going to hit CONUS or not, all data is surely beneficial data. And in science, the more data the better
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm sorry if I sounded mean, I didn't mean to. Also what happened with post 208, it seems glitchy.
it does i was wondering how he did that......
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Quoting MTWX:


Aparently you have never lived up north.....


In duluth, mn only August is immune to measurable snow fall.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Yeah such a huge storm not moving much will cause upwelling, some here where talking about that days ago, upwelling is hurting Leslie.

Yeah, I was talking about it and I was told by a few people in here that even though Leslie was large, her winds wasn't strong enough to cause up-welling.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol Aussie.Seems we were both right on Leslie causing her on demise.If she doesn't get moving soon she will continue to weaken.


I can't understand why some people here didn't think about it like we did. A large system barely moving is going to cause up-welling. Wash, I guess great minds think alike. ay mate!!
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting jascott1967:


I already said I quit. My terms. Maybe not mine, my son was born. I quit because I didn't want him to smoke. I don't think I deserve the perception I was stupid for picking up the habit, though, and people hounding me day after day didn't do anything to help me quit, they just agitated me, just like the man made GW theorists today. I do no more and no less than they do to better the climate but I feel like I'm made to feel guilty for not doing more.


You know, I do actually get what you're getting at; I'm a current smoker, and few things wind up pissing me off more than people trying to get me to quit by telling me a bunch of stuff I already know, thank you much. It's not like I think it's _good_ for me.

Though it might be good for others, because I'm not sure I can vouch for the continued health and well being of those around me if I haven't had my morning cigarette with coffee. :P

The thing is, though, it's not that they're not _right_, it's that they miss the point. I don't smoke because I'm not aware of how bad for me it is. I smoke because I'm an addict, partly, and I smoke because it's a stupid small short term pleasure in a world that can be pretty damn short on those sometimes.

Global warming is happening. I find it really hard to find ways to argue that we're measurably upping the CO2 in the atmosphere, we know mechanisms that make that mean more stored heat/energy, and yet somehow that's not, um, storing more heat/energy.

What to do about that is not easy, actually -- my personal opinion is that telling random people to cut emissions without realizing that we're putting that on a lot of people who can't _afford_ alternatives right now is stupid. We need to make stuff affordable for everyday people to do, not just guilt trip people about how they haven't bought a new Prius (I've _never_ owned a car that was that new.)

But to me, arguing that global warming isn't happening or that we're not contributing to it plenty would be a little like me puffing away on my Camel Light while telling people that it won't hurt me. It will bite me in the ass someday, most likely. I have a relative with emphysema, I know the score. That's a separate issue from the "ok, then what?" of it.
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Michael
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Today is the day that Hurricane Fran made landfall in NC..September 6, 1996

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14563
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm surprised to see them do that for a storm that is not a serious threat to the United States.


The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel program only has a one month window for flights, so it is basically use it or lose it.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Just snapped these nice-looking sunset mammatus from a storm to the east over the Everglades (from my iPad, so the quality isn't the best):

Mammatus

Mammatus

I'm out for the evening, but on another note, I just want to say how pleased I am that Angela and/or Dr. Masters chose to include one of my Arctic sea ice charts in this evening's blog post. I hope people here find it as helpful in visualizing the ongoing situation at the North Pole as others elsewhere have.


Totally cool images...but those kinds of clouds creep me out! LOL saw them a few times the year I lived in Colorado Springs and was like, ummm, no!! It's a shame being a landscape photographer, I LOVE clouds like that and crazy clouds in general...but I don't want to see them above my home!
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm surprised to see them do that for a storm that is not a serious threat to the United States.


might be working on a schedule for testing...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Calm down.No one is bashing you for being in chat.

I'm sorry if I sounded mean, I didn't mean to. Also what happened with post 208, it seems glitchy.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Does anyone want to argue with about this now???


SINCE LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...IT IS PRODUCING UPWELLING
RESULTING IN LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. THE
UPWELLING IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR WOULD NOT FAVOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL LESLIE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
UNDISTURBED WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS
FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEGINNING IN 24 HOURS.

TCHC/OHC is OVERRATED????? I guess the NHC doesn't think so.
Lol Aussie.Seems we were both right on Leslie causing her on demise.If she doesn't get moving soon she will continue to weaken.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes they did.Next one is for tomorrow.They might cancel that one as well with the way this thing is looking.
yah i dont think it will do anything. just make alot of rain.
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Quoting AussieStorm:
Does anyone want to argue with about this now???


SINCE LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...IT IS PRODUCING UPWELLING
RESULTING IN LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. THE
UPWELLING IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR WOULD NOT FAVOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL LESLIE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
UNDISTURBED WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS
FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEGINNING IN 24 HOURS.

TCHC/OHC is OVERRATED????? I guess the NHC doesn't think so.
Yeah such a huge storm not moving much will cause upwelling, some here where talking about that days ago, upwelling is hurting Leslie.
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Quoting VINNY04:
any word on if NHC cancelled the flight into 90L?
Yes they did.Next one is for tomorrow.They might cancel that one as well with the way this thing is looking.
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216. MTWX
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


When did April become part of winter? You need to cool it.


Aparently you have never lived up north.....
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


On the plus side, I'm seeing more and more everyday random people in my life who don't pay much attention and aren't terribly politically invested actually starting to _take this seriously_. Why? Because it's overwhelming friggin' obvious that the weather is getting weird, even if it's not hotter right this minute right where you're standing.

We can only hope that the (hopefully energy efficient) lightbulbs keep going on for the bulk of people.

Some are just too far gone in ideology and will continue to fight the facts if the facts don't match what they'd like to be true. They will increasingly become a side note. Very few people don't see it at this point, though I still think most people have _no_ understanding for what it means or how little time we have.
I agree, the denier position is becoming untenable in the population. Unfortunately the governments of the world are paralyzed, and we are already locking ourselves in for ten of thousands of years as we continue BAU. OTOH, there are a lot of people who are totally selfish and do not care what happens beyond their own death...or worse, they have been brainwashed to act out on suicidal behaviors.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
From HRD Blog


This month we are collaborating with NASA on their field campaign called Hurricane Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) in conjunction with our field program. The first flight of their field campaign is today! Their Global Hawk will take off from Dryden, CA at 1900 UTC (3PM Eastern) and land approximately 24 hours later in Wallops Island, VA. The unmanned aircraft will circumnavigate Hurricane Leslie and launch dropwindsondes. Here is their flight track and the drop locations.





I would think the next few model cycles would have the data from the dropsondes.
I'm surprised to see them do that for a storm that is not a serious threat to the United States.
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any word on if NHC cancelled the flight into 90L?
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Does anyone want to argue with about this now???


SINCE LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...IT IS PRODUCING UPWELLING
RESULTING IN LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. THE
UPWELLING IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR WOULD NOT FAVOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL LESLIE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
UNDISTURBED WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS
FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEGINNING IN 24 HOURS.

TCHC/OHC is OVERRATED????? I guess the NHC doesn't think so.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Not one drop of rain today here on Arrakis, Satellite Beach, FL.
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Quoting guygee:
LOL...
VR46L gets clocked going 90 in a school zone.
Officer: My laser had you pegged at 90 MPH!
VR63L: But, Ireland!

Not really much better than the denier argument from a couple of years ago: But, Mars! (is warming, too).

Well at least those deniers are still trying to reason their way out of the box.

Then you have the denier-religion people, it is their religio so no sense trying to reason with them:
I never said any of those things, but his intelligence is one dimensional, so if I believe that AGW is a problem, I must be a "liberal" with a pre-defined set of other beliefs that fit his black and white world.


On the plus side, I'm seeing more and more everyday random people in my life who don't pay much attention and aren't terribly politically invested actually starting to _take this seriously_. Why? Because it's overwhelming friggin' obvious that the weather is getting weird, even if it's not hotter right this minute right where you're standing.

We can only hope that the (hopefully energy efficient) lightbulbs keep going on for the bulk of people.

Some are just too far gone in ideology and will continue to fight the facts if the facts don't match what they'd like to be true. They will increasingly become a side note. Very few people don't see it at this point, though I still think most people have _no_ understanding for what it means or how little time we have.
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The MDR has been quiet during the past week.The last couple of waves died out when they hit water.Will be interesting to see if these next ones show any development, as we near the season peak (Sept' 10)
SP

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Why won't Leslie just die all ready..
Quoting washingtonian115:




Your Comment:



Rich TextQ uoting wxchaser97:

FYI I just posted this in chat, we can be there for as long as we like. Chat is our hang out place, we will continue to hang out there. Calm down.No one is bashing you for being in chat.



 



Submit Cancel




And please if your going to carry that attitude stay there.
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Quoting VR46L:


I know nothing about that guess there are people that Just do not get on and I know nothing of your disagreement... but she is sensible as regards to her attitude to smoking


I already said I quit. My terms. Maybe not mine, my son was born. I quit because I didn't want him to smoke. I don't think I deserve the perception I was stupid for picking up the habit, though, and people hounding me day after day didn't do anything to help me quit, they just agitated me, just like the man made GW theorists today. I do no more and no less than they do to better the climate but I feel like I'm made to feel guilty for not doing more.
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206. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:




But with warm water temper at there lakes we could see. One heck of a lake effect snow event if the temper are right at the time of the rain turning to snow


elnino effect???
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
Quoting VR46L:


Just Sharing the results from the part of the world I live in ...and its extremely late and I have no intention of getting in to an argument with someone being rude and nasty at this time of the early morning....


Well, I'm glad that where you live hasn't been odd this year. I'm sure there are a lot of farmers in India and in Russia and in China and across the entire US midwest that are happy for you. Good luck with food prices, though.
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:
Bwahahahahaha!
...I have to say that if the denial line is becoming "but, Ireland!" then I think it's safe to say there's not much argument left, really.
LOL...
VR46L gets clocked going 90 in a school zone.
Officer: My laser had you pegged at 90 MPH!
VR63L: But, Ireland!

Not really much better than the denier argument from a couple of years ago: But, Mars! (is warming, too).

Well at least those deniers are still trying to reason their way out of the box.

Then you have the denier-religion people, it is their religion so no sense trying to reason with them:
Quoting jascott1967:

Fear mongering liberals terrify me. ...Yes, smoking will give us cancer, drinking will cause liver failure, red meat will clog arteries, the sun causes skin cancer...
I never said any of those things, but his intelligence is one dimensional, so if I believe that AGW is a problem, I must be a "liberal" with a pre-defined set of other beliefs that fit his black and white world.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

FYI I just posted this in chat, we can be there for as long as we like. Chat is our hang out place, we will continue to hang out there.
Calm down.No one is bashing you for being in chat.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well at least it has a defined naked swirl :P

Yep, if you are going to swirl, it's always best to be naked and well defined.

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From HRD Blog


This month we are collaborating with NASA on their field campaign called Hurricane Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) in conjunction with our field program. The first flight of their field campaign is today! Their Global Hawk will take off from Dryden, CA at 1900 UTC (3PM Eastern) and land approximately 24 hours later in Wallops Island, VA. The unmanned aircraft will circumnavigate Hurricane Leslie and launch dropwindsondes. Here is their flight track and the drop locations.





I would think the next few model cycles would have the data from the dropsondes.
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I probably am not on many peoples' view list on here, but basically said before, this area warmed by the Atlantic current, would stand a good chance of getting cooler if GW took effect by most models. Def not a case of everywhere becoming the Sonoran desert. Likelier the new Greenland LOL


Completely agreed. The effects over time for any one location are really hard to pin down. Some places will probably be hotter than hell, some places will get huge rains from increased evaporation and higher SST, some places will probably be _colder_, at least for a while, based on changes to the jet stream and the cold water coming from all that melting ice up there. The effects on the jet stream are looking to involve major "stickiness" to weather systems moving through, and _my_ expectation is that the next decades, while the global system is still transitioning and seeking whatever new equilibrium it can possibly "hope" to find, will largely be dominated by "what the hell" unpredictability to local weather across most of the world.

It's a decently big planet, and it spins, and it has seasons because it's angled. Different places on it will experience this differently depending on local conditions.

Sometimes, I think it helps people if I try to put it in terms of energy instead of heat. It's an absolutely _staggering_ amount of energy being added and held in the atmosphere of Earth. No, it won't be hotter everywhere at once, at least consistently, and at least for now. It'll be _weirder_.

Global _weirding_ is what we're going to see, some places faster than others, and we have zero idea how to deal with how it's going to screw with the agricultural work that relies on relatively predictable weather and that also keeps food in our bellies.

Ireland is fine this year, though, call off the alarm. :P
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Just snapped these nice-looking sunset mammatus from a storm to the east over the Everglades (from my iPad, so the quality isn't the best):

Mammatus

Mammatus

I'm out for the evening, but on another note, I just want to say how pleased I am that Angela and/or Dr. Masters chose to include one of my Arctic sea ice charts in this evening's blog post. I hope people here find it as helpful in visualizing the ongoing situation at the North Pole as others elsewhere have.



Wait crud, which one is yours?

The "Death Spiral" or another one?

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Ya 70% for that day!!
Quoting hydrus:
Yep..And some strong thunderstorms.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The same people have been in tropics chat for hours.

FYI I just posted this in chat, we can be there for as long as we like. Chat is our hang out place, we will continue to hang out there.
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Just snapped these nice-looking sunset mammatus from a storm to the east over the Everglades (from my iPad, so the quality isn't the best):

Mammatus

Mammatus

I'm out for the evening, but on another note, I just want to say how pleased I am that Angela and/or Dr. Masters chose to include one of my Arctic sea ice charts in this evening's blog post. I hope people here find it as helpful in visualizing the ongoing situation at the North Pole as others elsewhere have.
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half the ice cap is missing in the north pole? well that would explain why Santa didnt get me anything last Christmas.... :P
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
194. VR46L
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:



Bwahahahahaha!

Jesus, GW _is global_ and the heat is _averaged across the globe. The fact that one part of the globe happened to not have a spectacularly weird set of weather doesn't negate the fact that other huge parts of the globe are experiencing absolutely bizarre weather.

That is the most winningest "missing the point" comment on global warming I have ever read. Adding a bunch of heat -- representing a gigantic amount of total energy -- to the planet's atmosphere is _destabilizing_ weather patterns, not making every place on the entire planet be just like the Sonoran Desert all at once.

These things are helpful in figuring out which posters should be utterly ignored in general. And I have to say that if the denial line is becoming "but, Ireland!" then I think it's safe to say there's not much argument left, really.


Just Sharing the results from the part of the world I live in ...and its extremely late and I have no intention of getting in to an argument with someone being rude and nasty at this time of the early morning....
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Lake Michigan water temperatures are mostly in the 70s (and still warming), and even Lake Superior's waters range from the mid-60s to around 70. I suppose things could rapidly cool in the next two weeks, but I'm willing to bet that Chicago will see no September snow this year.





Inching ever closer to 26.5C.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
The same people have been in tropics chat for hours.
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Quoting weatherbro:


Even Florida's gonna get a taste of this!!!
Yep..And some strong thunderstorms.
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:



Bwahahahahaha!

Jesus, GW _is global_ and the heat is _averaged across the globe. The fact that one part of the globe happened to not have a spectacularly weird set of weather doesn't negate the fact that other huge parts of the globe are experiencing absolutely bizarre weather.

That is the most winningest "missing the point" comment on global warming I have ever read. Adding a bunch of heat -- representing a gigantic amount of total energy -- to the planet's atmosphere is _destabilizing_ weather patterns, not making every place on the entire planet be just like the Sonoran Desert all at once.

These things are helpful in figuring out which posters should be utterly ignored in general. And I have to say that if the denial line is becoming "but, Ireland!" then I think it's safe to say there's not much argument left, really.


I probably am not on many peoples' view list on here, but basically said before, this area warmed by the Atlantic current, would stand a good chance of getting cooler if GW took effect by most models. Def not a case of everywhere becoming the Sonoran desert. Likelier the new Greenland LOL
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Quoting hydrus:
Should get some refreshing cool temps from the next front...No sno tho..:)


Even Florida's gonna get a taste of this!!!
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People here in D.C are complaining about the unexpected heavy rain event that happened this morning.Their was only a slight chance of rain that was forecast.So for some one that had outdoor plans they were highly upset.It was suppose to be mostly sunny instead it was mostly cloudy.I recorded a temp of 84 degrees while the high was suppose to be 91.They messed up the forecast big time.Lol.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well at least it has a defined naked swirl :P


Where are all the posts of Hurricane Michael? It looks infinetly better than 90L....LOL
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Ugh...I am right there with you...not in the mindset for winter here in Detroit. My mind is still set deep in the tropics....here are my most recent posts on the Atlantic tropics (details on Leslie...Michael...90L...and more)

Link to this morning's full discussion

Link to special update I released minutes ago....

School just began and I'm still focused on the tropics. When its winter time I'm ready, though i doubt anything would happen.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well at least it has a defined naked swirl :P

Look at the thunderstorm action over Florida.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

That would be crazy for the area, if that happened where I'm at I would go nuts. Could there be a wintry mix in Detroit if that happened?


Ugh...I am right there with you...not in the mindset for winter here in Detroit. My mind is still set deep in the tropics....here are my most recent posts on the Atlantic tropics (details on Leslie...Michael...90L...and more)

Link to this morning's full discussion

Link to special update I released minutes ago....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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