Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

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Extraordinary melting of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has shattered the all-time low sea ice extent record set in September 2007, and sea ice continues to decline far below what has ever been observed. The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set. These organizations include the University of Washington Polar Science Center (a new record for low ice volume), the Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center in Norway, and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. A comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs shows the full story. Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 5, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The ice continues to melt, and has not reached the low for this year yet.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day at the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory.


Figure 2. Sea ice extent on September 5, 2012, showed that half of the polar ice cap was missing, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Why the Arctic sea ice is important
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The Autumn air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is increased melting in Greenland. We already saw an unprecedented melting event in Greenland this year, and as warming continues, the likelihood of these events increase.


Figure 3. August set a new record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.



Figure 4. Arctic sea ice death spiral as plotted by Jim Pettit using data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Huge storm pummels Alaska
A massive low pressure system with a central pressure of 970 mb swept through Alaska on Tuesday, generating hurricane-force wind gusts near Anchorage, Alaska that knocked out power to 55,000 homes. Mighty Alaskan storms like this are common in winter, but rare in summer and early fall. The National Weather Service in Anchorage said in their Wednesday forecast discussion that the forecast wind speeds from this storm were incredibly strong for this time of year--four to six standard anomalies above normal. A four-standard anomaly event occurs once every 43 years, and a five-standard anomaly event is a 1-in-4800 year event. However, a meteorologist I heard from who lives in the Anchorage area characterized the wind damage that actually occurred as a 1-in-10 year event. A few maximum wind gusts recorded on Tuesday during the storm:

McHugh Creek (Turnagain Arm)... ... ..88 mph
Paradise Valley (Potter Marsh)... ... 75 mph
Upper Hillside (1400 ft)... ... ... ... 70 mph
Anchorage port... ... ... ... ... ... ... .63 mph

The storm has weakened to a central pressure of 988 mb today, and is located just north of Alaska. The storm is predicted to bring strong winds of 25 - 35 mph and large waves to the edge of the record-thin and record-small Arctic ice cap, and may add to the unprecedented decline in Arctic sea ice being observed this summer.


Figure 5. An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this natural-color mosaic image on Aug. 6, 2012. The center of the storm at that date was located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. Image credit: NASA.

Arctic storms may be increasing due to climate change
This week's Alaskan storm is the second unusually strong low pressure system to affect the Arctic in the past month. On August 4 - 8, a mighty storm with a central pressure of 963 mb raged through the Arctic, bringing strong winds that helped scatter and break up Arctic sea ice. According to a detailed post at NASA Earth Observatory, that storm was in the top 3 percent for strongest storms ever recorded north of 70 degrees latitude. A study of long-term Arctic cyclone trends authored by a team led by John Walsh and Xiangdong Zhang of the University of Alaska Fairbanks found that number and intensity of Arctic cyclones has increased during the second half of the twentieth century, particularly during the summer. Dr. Zhang explained that climate change has caused sea ice to retreat markedly in recent decades and has also warmed Arctic Ocean temperatures. Such changes may be providing more energy and moisture to support cyclone development and persistence. The strong storms of this week and a month ago would have had far less impact on the ice just a decade ago, when the sea ice was much thicker and more extensive.

A sea ice decline double-whammy
The monster Arctic storms like we've seen this year have sped up the rate of sea ice loss, but increased water temperatures and air temperatures due to human-caused global warming are the dominant reasons for the record melting of the Arctic sea ice. A July 2012 study by Day et al. found that the most influential of the possible natural influences on sea ice loss was the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO has two phases, negative (cold) and positive (warm), which impact Arctic sea ice. The negative phase tends to create sea surface temperatures in the far north Atlantic that are colder than average. In this study, the AMO only accounted for 5% - 31% of the observed September sea ice decline since 1979. The scientists concluded that given the lack of evidence that natural forces were controlling sea ice fluctuations, the majority of sea ice decline we've seen during the 1953 - 2010 period was due to human causes.

Joe Romm has a more in-depth look at the new Arctic sea ice record and what it means for the future over at climateprogess.org.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

Turbulence (katy99780)
Beautiful orographic formations over the mountains on a windy evening.
Turbulence

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1134. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
According to recent medical research;

"Banging your head against a wall uses 150 calories an hour."

Just wanted you to know, since reading the blog this morning, I have lost 23 pounds.........


Gro, the knots on your head must be huge. :) It was much better last night. I sure hope a new blog gets posted pretty quick.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Quoting mcluvincane:


Obama= iran gets a nuke


Richard Prior was a pretty smart man when it came to politics.



I'm Jewish, my grandmother lives in Jerusalem. I have deep worries that iran will have a nuke soon. We must stop them at all cost
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OK...here's a weather related flash for y'all:

I'll pay someone $100 to come over and wash my boat tomorrow....$150 if they wear a bikini....$200 if the person wearing the bikini is not Neapolitan...or Grothar....
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1127. bappit
Quoting Skyepony:
At some point you've got to stop questioning everything & learn enough to ask the right questions...
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We'll never get a new blog as long as we keep blogging about GW and politics - playing Doc's hand.
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1125. yoboi
Quoting Kumo:


I really think that the book of Revelation and other prophetic works were meant to serve as a warning of what could potentially happen if we make the wrong choices.

I really don't think God (regardless of how anyone personally sees him, through Christianity, Islam, Judaism, etc.) would rather us to just sit back and let end of the world prophecy to "just happen".

While prayer and meditation are healthy, these practices won't fix the damage that humans have caused to this world.

We've got well documented scientific evidence and data that humans are the chief cause of this accelerated global warming.

Folks need to start putting pressure on both elected officials to institute a "Carbon Tax". Revenue could go into production of affordable bioplastic materials that absorb CO2.

Link

This would allow us more time to cheapen the cost of alternative fuels and technology, while making a huge impact in returning atmospheric CO2 to pre-industrial levels.

Jesus, Muhammad, and Buddha were great men of even greater action, I am pretty sure they won't mind if we begin taking the steps needed to save our planet. It would not surprise me if we did them proud by being a little more proactive.



carbon tax??? more taxes that's all we need....if they did create a carbon tax there would be so many loopholes....and the money generated would go to foolish spending....we are 16 trillion dollars in debt
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WEATHER
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1122. Grothar
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24 hrs
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1119. sar2401
Quoting ncstorm:
Just to refresh those coming in for the first time and rearing back from all the hot air on the blog, it seems Angela gave the green light for politics to be discussed on the blog..



That's not quite true. She stated that political issues as they are direcly related to climate change and kept civil were acceptable. She said nothing about political campaigning. There's a difference.
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Ive always wondered about the humans disrupting the world theory.
Sure we are doing that somewhat, but say in places where it says "dont spit on the ground, dont walk in the woods", are we humans not "animals", a part of nature, why cant we at least do normal things in nature, i can see how littering hurts, but as to "disturbing the normal part of nature", by walking in it etc....

I dont think any life form in charge at any time ( dinosaurs for example) were so removed from the rest of the world, yet we as humans are so trying to stay far away from nature, when we could still be apart of it, while still caring for it.

It would be fun to explore OFF a trail once in a while, and just look around....without littering or anything, what kind of creature is a human that we shouldt walk or talk there?
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sorry to be off topic
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1116. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting nyhurhunter:
It seems that the models they use are more accurate for the North atlantic and adjecent areas, but as you can see in the diagrams in that article the pacific was also affected, but as they say in the article, the models are more north atlantic based. The reality is that the climate is changing, but to say it can only be caused by one thing(humans) seems irresponsible to me, knowing that all we have to compare with are models. Which we know are not nearly always accurate. Furthermore, even if the "greenhouse effect is responsible, how do we know that all that CO2 came from humans,it could have come from various other sources. Im not saying that you are wrong, you are not. Im just saying that without questions there would be no science.


One line in that is modeling. It only goes back 1500 years because of the physical evidence gathered. Scroll down for the maps of what was gathered.

There is other studies that are more recent, even this summer. As the AMO has gone very positive it's given us a first hand look at how things went down during that medieval period...ice getting swept out, the warm currents around Greenland.

Greenhouse effect is very repeatable using chemistry. We know exactly how many moles of heat each chemical compound holds. We also know what we dig up & burn. There is also some cutting edge satelittes that can watch & count it as it rises from areas of rediculous releases. The new Japanese one caught this out west.. Tenting houses for termites & using sulfuryl fluoride.

Kilogram for kilogram, sulfuryl fluoride is about 4,000 times more efficient than carbon dioxide at trapping heat, though much less of it exists in the atmosphere.

Its climate impact in California each year equals that of carbon dioxide emitted from about 1 million vehicles. About 60 percent of the world’s sulfuryl fluoride use occurs in California.

Sulfuryl fluoride blocks a wavelength of heat that otherwise could easily escape the Earth, the scientists said. Carbon dioxide blocks a different wavelength, trapping heat near the surface.


“The only place where the planet is able to emit heat that escapes the atmosphere is in the region that sulfuryl fluoride blocks,” said Blake, chemistry professor. “If we put something with this blocking effect in that area, then we’re in trouble – and we are putting something in there.”

The chemists worry that emissions will increase as new uses are found for sulfuryl fluoride – especially given the ban of methyl bromide, an ozone-depleting pesticide regulated under the Montreal Protocol. Sulfuryl fluoride emissions are not regulated, though officials do consider it a toxic contaminant.



At some point you've got to stop questioning everything & learn enough to ask the right questions...
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1115. sar2401
Quoting yoboi:


it's def been hot and humid here past few days wonder how much rain the front will bring...cool weather meeting warm sure some severe storms might show up...


The SPC has the area from IL through Ohio and down to northern MS and AL in the slight risk area today. Further south, we may get a few strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon. It will sure be nice to see highs only in the mid-80's and lows in te low 60's though. It hasn't been that low in central AL since Memorial Day. A long, hot summer for sure.
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1113. ncstorm
Just to refresh those coming in for the first time and rearing back from all the hot air on the blog, it seems Angela gave the green light for politics to be discussed on the blog..


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1112. Grothar
According to recent medical research;

"Banging your head against a wall uses 150 calories an hour."

Just wanted you to know, since reading the blog this morning, I have lost 23 pounds.........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1110. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
But this forum is not only for tropical weather. It's for weather of all types, and climate, too (in fact, it's a "Whatever Dr. Masters has chosen to write about" forum). It's certainly not a religious forum, and it's only a political forum insofar as discussing solutions for avoiding catastrophic climate change goes against the political ideologies of some forum members, so they drag politics into it.

The thing is, some people don't like what science is telling them--that is, that we humans are disrupting our environment at an increasing pace. So rather than deal with the scientific facts and move onto discussing ways we can keep from rendering that environment completely unlivable, they instead "kill the messenger", so to speak, and simply pretend that there is no disruption, or that we're not causing it, or that it's not so bad, and so on. It's an unfortunate byproduct of sub-par journalism that so many otherwise intelligent people have failed to grasp the true consequences of what's happening--but that doesn't and won't make those consequences any less devastating.


kinda like cherry picking information in the cause???
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1109. Michfan
Wow first GW, now politics and religion. This has gotten out of hand around here.
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Quoting VINNY04:
they said to stop talking about it so we did. but then people kept bring ing it up


I'm sorry bringing what up?

"Once I thought I was out...they pulled me back in"

12z GFS?
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1107. ncstorm
Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
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1105. bappit
Quoting nyhurhunter:
It seems that the models they use are more accurate for the North atlantic and adjecent areas, but as you can see in the diagrams in that article the pacific was also affected, but as they say in the article, the models are more north atlantic based. The reality is that the climate is changing, but to say it can only be caused by one thing(humans) seems irresponsible to me, knowing that all we have to compare with are models. Which we know are not nearly always accurate. Furthermore, even if the "greenhouse effect is responsible, how do we know that all that CO2 came from humans,it could have come from various other sources. Im not saying that you are wrong, you are not. Im just saying that without questions there would be no science.

The parameters for the system are fairly constant except for the CO2 we are putting in. We can identify the CO2 as coming from fossil fuels by the isotopes.
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1104. Kumo
Quoting reedzone:


Well, there are people in here (very few) that are Christian Conservative like me who believes in Global Warming, but is not caused by man. Scientists have proven that GW is real, but I believe it is an aging/natural issue as the world gets older in time. If you think this is bad, read the book of Revelations, the world is going to get worse in time (if you believe in the word of God)


I really think that the book of Revelation and other prophetic works were meant to serve as a warning of what could potentially happen if we make the wrong choices.

I really don't think God (regardless of how anyone personally sees him, through Christianity, Islam, Judaism, etc.) would rather us to just sit back and let end of the world prophecy to "just happen".

While prayer and meditation are healthy, these practices won't fix the damage that humans have caused to this world.

We've got well documented scientific evidence and data that humans are the chief cause of this accelerated global warming.

Folks need to start putting pressure on elected officials (Conservative, Liberal, Libertarian, etc.) to institute a "Carbon Tax". Revenue could go into production of affordable bioplastic materials that absorb CO2.

Link

This would allow us more time to cheapen the cost of alternative fuels and technology, while making a huge impact in returning atmospheric CO2 to pre-industrial levels.

Jesus, Muhammad, and Buddha were great men of even greater action, I am pretty sure they won't mind if we begin taking the steps needed to save our planet. It would not surprise me if we did them proud by being a little more proactive.

Edit: References to political affiliation
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Quoting masonsnana:
What is going on this morning? This blog is for tropical weather!!
But this forum is not only for tropical weather. It's for weather of all types, and climate, too (in fact, it's a "Whatever Dr. Masters has chosen to write about" forum). It's certainly not a religious forum, and it's only a political forum insofar as discussing solutions for avoiding catastrophic climate change goes against the political ideologies of some forum members, so they drag politics into it.

The thing is, some people don't like what science is telling them--that is, that we humans are disrupting our environment at an increasing pace. So rather than deal with the scientific facts and move onto discussing ways we can keep from rendering that environment completely unlivable, they instead "kill the messenger", so to speak, and simply pretend that there is no disruption, or that we're not causing it, or that it's not so bad, and so on. It's an unfortunate byproduct of sub-par journalism that so many otherwise intelligent people have failed to grasp the true consequences of what's happening--but that doesn't and won't make those consequences any less devastating.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13465
Quoting SouthTampa:
What one believes metaphysically is a matter of faith. This is a faith that has limits in the physical world; it is one that is personal and spiritual, and one should be free to believe as they may.

However, what one believes physically is a matter of fact. There must be physical evidence that supports this belief. It should be founded in evidence and consistently tested. The results should be repeatable and have no limit in the physical world.

One should not be free of ridicule to "believe" in disproved theories (e.g., the world is flat and the sun rotates around it), nor should one free of scrutiny to give the metaphysical physically-causal attributes for these would not be repeatable.



Metaphysics is not entirely about faith.

There are certain Metaphysical(beyond physical) things which can be proven logically, even without physical evidence.

If you are talking about the origin of the universe, it is obvious that is both a physical and a metaphysical issue.

Why is it metaphysical? Because you must ask the questions, "Why and how should anything exist at all? Why not nothing?"


Now it is true that some aspects of Metaphysics are "unprovable" or "non-falsifiable," but not being provable does not make a theory false. Not being falsifiable certainly does not make a hypothesis or a spiritual claim false, yet certain things can still be shown to be more likely, or more rational than others.

Examples:

"This sentence is true and unprovable."

You cannot prove the sentence false, and there's no reason to doubt it, yet if the sentence really is true, you cannot prove it either, and this has been proven(seriously).


On creation:

Chaos First Argument (Mine originally, I think):


Now you may ask, "What happened 'before' the universe/multi-verse existed? Before laws of physics existed, etc, was there true chaos?"


If there is true chaos, then anything can happen.

If anything can happen then it's possible for an omnipotent being to exist.

If an omnipotent being exists it can then establish order, removing chaos, and prevent the existence of any other omnipotents or omnipotent wannnabes.


Order First:

See the last paragraph above.

By definition, God is fundamental reality, or more scientifically, "The rational principle which governs the universe".



The notion of the "Sky Fairy" God, which atheists mock, actually any manner of "creationism" believes, except in the form of visions or metaphor (for human understanding). There is an ontological barrier between us and the true omnipotence, not that "it" can't do whatever it wants, but that we cannot comprehend the full reality of "it," as one would need to be omnipotent in order to fully comprehend an omnipotent, and since "There can be only one," that comprehension is not ontologically possible.

Similarly, you can never truly understand the universe, because no matter how good your model might be, you would need to know the position of every entity: light, particles, fields, or other energy or matter forms known and unknown, in order to actually test your model. Our absolute knowledge of anything in the universe is nearly zero, as even our best measurements are merely approximations with very large margins of error.



One of the glaring problems of the scientific method is that one time events, such as creation of the universe or any alleged symmetry breaking or any other similar theory, cannot be repeated for testing, and therefore would not be considered "science" in the modern definition, even though they must be some form of physical knowledge.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1099. sar2401
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I picture Rod Serling smoking a cigarette in the background.


Now that's pretty funny. "Welcome to the...AGW Zone".
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Quoting MTWX:


I was thinking it is a bit early in the year too, but I have no objection to a high in the upper 70's for Sunday. Especially after this week of mid to high 90's we have had!


No kidding, today will be close to 100, tomorrow it just depends on when the front pushes through but should get close to 90 or above and then Sunday will be glorious.

To bad the rain chances have dropped for tomorrow. We need the rain.
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1097. yoboi
Quoting MTWX:


I was thinking it is a bit early in the year too, but I have no objection to a high in the upper 70's for Sunday. Especially after this week of mid to high 90's we have had!


it's def been hot and humid here past few days wonder how much rain the front will bring...cool weather meeting warm sure some severe storms might show up...
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1096. VINNY04
Quoting SouthTampa:
So you get your mouthy opinion and you can tell other's to "QUIT"? Welcome to the ignore list. Welcome to the ignore list.
they said to stop talking about it so we did. but then people kept bring ing it up
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1095. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and if ya really want to know the truth
there is much more occuring
then the simple changing
of the earths climate
we are actually changing
the building blocks
of all life itself


the greatness field experiment ever performed

we ourselves are the subject of our own result


That is very profound...I'm sure it must be, because I have no idea what you're talking about. :)
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Quoting VINNY04:
im gonna try again. QUIT!!!!!!
So you get your mouthy opinion and you can tell other's to "QUIT"? Welcome to the ignore list. Welcome to the ignore list.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


Unfortunately global warming discussion is usually followed by people's political and religious discourses. An unnecessary evil. You see scientific facts aren't good enough for many when they're blinded by religion and politics.
Just goes to show how intertwined the whole GW idea is with religion and politics. Because the theory is based on beliefs not hard science, just like the other two. There never will be a consensus on any of the three. Just people thinking everyone else is wrong/lying/stupid when they hold the opposing belief. Nothing will be changed...
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1092. MTWX
Quoting yoboi:


i live in southwest la this will be our first cool front, the first one usually does not digg down real south in the gom usually takes oct front to do that, example when the front picked up wilma in 2005 think that was oct timeframe.....


I was thinking it is a bit early in the year too, but I have no objection to a high in the upper 70's for Sunday. Especially after this week of mid to high 90's we have had!
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1091. sar2401
Quoting 7544:
gota admit 90l looks better now than it did all day yesterday and early this am while under only 5 k of shear this may be the window where it could form in the next 6 to 12 hours as it drift eastward keep a checking stranger things have happen with gulf systems


What is it with you an 90L? You've been pumping this mess since before it got in the Gulf. 90L looks worse now than it ever has. Even the NHC has lowered the survival probability to 20%.
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Considering that half of Dr. Master's post was about the melting polar Ice cap, I don't think talking about global warming is out of line here.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and if ya really want to know the truth
there is much more occuring
then the simple changing
of the earths climate
we are actually changing
the building blocks
of all life itself


the greatness field experiment ever performed

we ourselves are the subject of our own result


I picture Rod Serling smoking a cigarette in the background.
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Quoting lavinia:


True...but religion and politics ARE off topic.


Unfortunately global warming discussion is usually followed by people's political and religious discourses. An unnecessary evil. You see scientific facts aren't good enough for many when they're blinded by religion and politics.
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Maybe Dr. M was off topic - he knew this s... would follow.
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Quoting yoboi:



sounds like the syfy channel is your information underground????

Nah, just my one-stop shopping center for used deities.
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1085. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
and if ya really want to know the truth
there is much more occuring
then the simple changing
of the earths climate
we are actually changing
the building blocks
of all life itself


the greatness field experiment ever performed

we ourselves are the subject of our own result
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
E=MC Hammer


That was ROFL worthy for sure!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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