Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

Share this Blog
55
+

Extraordinary melting of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has shattered the all-time low sea ice extent record set in September 2007, and sea ice continues to decline far below what has ever been observed. The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set. These organizations include the University of Washington Polar Science Center (a new record for low ice volume), the Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center in Norway, and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. A comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs shows the full story. Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 5, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The ice continues to melt, and has not reached the low for this year yet.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day at the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory.


Figure 2. Sea ice extent on September 5, 2012, showed that half of the polar ice cap was missing, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Why the Arctic sea ice is important
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The Autumn air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is increased melting in Greenland. We already saw an unprecedented melting event in Greenland this year, and as warming continues, the likelihood of these events increase.


Figure 3. August set a new record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.



Figure 4. Arctic sea ice death spiral as plotted by Jim Pettit using data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Huge storm pummels Alaska
A massive low pressure system with a central pressure of 970 mb swept through Alaska on Tuesday, generating hurricane-force wind gusts near Anchorage, Alaska that knocked out power to 55,000 homes. Mighty Alaskan storms like this are common in winter, but rare in summer and early fall. The National Weather Service in Anchorage said in their Wednesday forecast discussion that the forecast wind speeds from this storm were incredibly strong for this time of year--four to six standard anomalies above normal. A four-standard anomaly event occurs once every 43 years, and a five-standard anomaly event is a 1-in-4800 year event. However, a meteorologist I heard from who lives in the Anchorage area characterized the wind damage that actually occurred as a 1-in-10 year event. A few maximum wind gusts recorded on Tuesday during the storm:

McHugh Creek (Turnagain Arm)... ... ..88 mph
Paradise Valley (Potter Marsh)... ... 75 mph
Upper Hillside (1400 ft)... ... ... ... 70 mph
Anchorage port... ... ... ... ... ... ... .63 mph

The storm has weakened to a central pressure of 988 mb today, and is located just north of Alaska. The storm is predicted to bring strong winds of 25 - 35 mph and large waves to the edge of the record-thin and record-small Arctic ice cap, and may add to the unprecedented decline in Arctic sea ice being observed this summer.


Figure 5. An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this natural-color mosaic image on Aug. 6, 2012. The center of the storm at that date was located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. Image credit: NASA.

Arctic storms may be increasing due to climate change
This week's Alaskan storm is the second unusually strong low pressure system to affect the Arctic in the past month. On August 4 - 8, a mighty storm with a central pressure of 963 mb raged through the Arctic, bringing strong winds that helped scatter and break up Arctic sea ice. According to a detailed post at NASA Earth Observatory, that storm was in the top 3 percent for strongest storms ever recorded north of 70 degrees latitude. A study of long-term Arctic cyclone trends authored by a team led by John Walsh and Xiangdong Zhang of the University of Alaska Fairbanks found that number and intensity of Arctic cyclones has increased during the second half of the twentieth century, particularly during the summer. Dr. Zhang explained that climate change has caused sea ice to retreat markedly in recent decades and has also warmed Arctic Ocean temperatures. Such changes may be providing more energy and moisture to support cyclone development and persistence. The strong storms of this week and a month ago would have had far less impact on the ice just a decade ago, when the sea ice was much thicker and more extensive.

A sea ice decline double-whammy
The monster Arctic storms like we've seen this year have sped up the rate of sea ice loss, but increased water temperatures and air temperatures due to human-caused global warming are the dominant reasons for the record melting of the Arctic sea ice. A July 2012 study by Day et al. found that the most influential of the possible natural influences on sea ice loss was the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO has two phases, negative (cold) and positive (warm), which impact Arctic sea ice. The negative phase tends to create sea surface temperatures in the far north Atlantic that are colder than average. In this study, the AMO only accounted for 5% - 31% of the observed September sea ice decline since 1979. The scientists concluded that given the lack of evidence that natural forces were controlling sea ice fluctuations, the majority of sea ice decline we've seen during the 1953 - 2010 period was due to human causes.

Joe Romm has a more in-depth look at the new Arctic sea ice record and what it means for the future over at climateprogess.org.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

Turbulence (katy99780)
Beautiful orographic formations over the mountains on a windy evening.
Turbulence

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 334 - 284

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Quoting Xyrus2000:


You can find temperature records for much of the globe freely available online. For example, you can check out the GISS site where you can get all kinds of data products.

Add the numbers up yourself. You can clearly see much of the northern hemisphere was abnormally warm this past winter. For extra credit, you can plot the monthly planetary average temperature going back as far as you can and see the clear warming trend.


Australia was abnormally cold this past winter.
Here are a few facts about this past winter:


Best snow season in 8 years now at 2metres

Canberra endures coldest September night since records began back in 1939(73Yrs).

Some of the most significant overnight minimum temperatures recorded to 9am EST on Sunday were:Canberra (-5°C(23F),
Tamworth (-4°C(24.8F) its coldest September night for over 55 years and Mudgee (-4.4°C(24F)
the coldest September night here for over 50 years.

Further west, Bourke (-0.2C(32.3F) a raw 9C(48.2F) below average and its Coldest September night for 104 years,
while the normally balmy north eastern region also shuddering under these noticeable crispy conditions,
Grafton Ap (0.1C(31.8F) a chilly 10C(50F) below average and the coldest September night here for over 46 years.

Across the ranges even colder conditions were experienced: Cooma Airport ( -9C(15.8F), Thredbo Top Station
(-8.6C(16.5F) and Glen Innes Airport (-8C(17.6F),its coldest September night for over 15years.

Some of the most significant overnight minimum temperatures recorded to 9am EST on Saturday were:Camden (-1.8°C)
its coldest September night for over 41 years, Richmond (-1.4°C) the coldest September night for over 83 years

Sydney observational hill recording an overnight minimum of 5.5°C, the coldest September night here for 17 years.

Badgerys creek(Western Sydney) (-0.2°C) the coldest September spell here for 18 years.


In fact, Australia has just emerged from its coldest overnight minimum temperatures on average across the country in 30 years.

What is perhaps just as significant is that this year also saw the third coldest over overnight minimums on record with
Australia recording an average minimum of-0.91˚C(1.7F below average).
Tasmania was the only state to have warmer than average minimum temperatures this year,
with a minimum average of +0.37˚C(0.66F above average).
One region to realy feel the cold was the Northern Territory, which shivered through its coldest minimum temperature
average on record, while South Australia rugged up under its seventh coolest winter.
Elsewhere, Western Australia saw its lowest minimum temperatures since 1976 averaging -0.75˚C(1.35F below average),
while New South Wales averaged a minima of -0.51˚C(0.91F below average) through winter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Leslie still has some shear and dry air to contend with as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Abacosurf:
Government got us to where we are today. Too much of it is going to kill us period.

It will take a movement from within to make a difference.


Movement from within winds up hitting a roadblock, unfortunately, at the place where this intersects with policy and with corporate desire for ever cheaper inputs.

I'd say industry seeking out the cheapest possible inputs is more what got us here today, in climate terms. We're unlikely to find cheaper energy than fossil fuels.

And while there are any number of us already doing what we can figure out to do in our own lives, we're overwhelmed by the vast emissions that come from industry standards and the very many people who would rather not think about it.

My preferred route would be to provide very strong incentives to help vast numbers of people actually afford to make big changes. But that's a tough sell in this political climate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20489
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You're missing the point. Once again, global warming does not mean everywhere will get warmer all at once. It means the global average temperature is increasing. This means more energy in the atmosphere, which influences weather patterns all over the globe. Some areas will get warmer, some will get colder, some will get wetter, and some will get drier. However, on average the planet is warming.

A warm week, month, year, and even decade are still considered the realm of meteorology, not climatology. Climatology deals on multi-decadal scales at a minimum. Therefore, a cold snap or heatwave is not indicative of climate change. However, increasing frequencies/extremes of such events are indicative of climate change. Even then, one must be careful not to confuse regional climate changes with planetary climate changes.


Just do a 30 year running average, if you're concerned with multi-decade issues being obfuscated, and plot the lines on a graph, no big deal, just like 5 and 10 year averages.

Although I'd still say you'd need a good 40 years of data to see a solid trend in a 30 year running average.

Of course, for some of the relevant metric we don't have accurate or precise enough data from before about 30 to 35 years ago to do a scientifically appropriate graph (namely modern sea ice maps).


Obviously, there's no dispute over absolutes though, like CO2 or Methane concentrations, any nation or university disputing the data can take their own readings over a period of a few years, and find the trend there as well.

Which reminds me:




The Methane Torches are back in full force, providing yet another "second order positive feedback," small as it may be at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
329. maeko
Quoting Abacosurf:
OK....Why is it the governments job??? This mentality that the government has to fix everything is absurd. It kills me to pay taxes when I feel like I am giving it to an out of control crackhead. If I am hungry I work for food or learn to catch or grow it. The more control you let them take the more under their thumb you will be in the future. Think for yourself.... government is not always the answer.


I cannot think of any instance of a society that 'tightened it's belt' or otherwise made uncomfortable and drastic changes in behavior for the greater good. I can think of historic examples that were implemented only by penalty of law. Thousands(millions,billions)of people can't be compelled by altruism alone. Additionally, corporations and industries don't need to hunt or grow food. They live on $$$ alone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here comes a very strong cold front.


Loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

By the way, you are being requested in chat by somebody.

By two somebodies now, we want him in chat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You're pretty ignorant when it comes to GW "freaks". You also seem to not understand the difference between weather and climate.

A single massive snow storm in summer or a a single massive heatwave in winter are not indicative of global warming or global cooling. They are singular events (i.e., weather). An increasing frequency of such events and/or increasing severity over the course of a couple of decades however tell a different story.

If anything, a freak September snowstorm in the great lakes would be more indicative that climate change is happening, rather than not (read up on how a warmer arctic really messes with weather patterns).


You're pretty ignorant when it comes to a sense of humor. You seriously didn't see the sarcastic humor in this? Are you Spock or something?

I'm not in denial of climate change. I understand how it can cause extremes as the earth's atmosphere is a closed system that needs to balance energy.

I don't necessarily agree with claims climate change is solely man caused or buy into the fear mongering from those that can't be trusted because of their connections to political cronies with socialist agendas.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1200
Quoting StormHype:
Santa gives two thumbs up for GW as he christens his new Arctic base camp.

Where is that.? And what ship is that.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20489
Quoting MississippiWx:
Sorry, but I have to laugh at this. Isaac enjoys slumming it in the Gulf. Must be that free oil floating around...


By the way, you are being requested in chat by somebody.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting unknowncomic:
90L not giving up yet. It's starting to inhale part of the Blobs convection.



Looks like a tiny island of convection in a sea of dry air. Some of the t-storms cells around FL today had a bigger foot print of convection. It's last hopes are tonight's Dmax, lest it goes the way of the Arctic ice.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1200
Quoting StormHype:


You must stop with the snow in September forecast. You will disrupt the GW freaks here, especially on a root post hyping extreme GW news at the climax of the Democratic convention. You are disrupting the plan, and your post will be removed.


You're pretty ignorant when it comes to GW "freaks". You also seem to not understand the difference between weather and climate.

A single massive snow storm in summer or a a single massive heatwave in winter are not indicative of global warming or global cooling. They are singular events (i.e., weather). An increasing frequency of such events and/or increasing severity over the course of a couple of decades however tell a different story.

If anything, a freak September snowstorm in the great lakes would be more indicative that climate change is happening, rather than not (read up on how a warmer arctic really messes with weather patterns).
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1448
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Government may not always be the answer, but in this, where we need everybody to work in unison and we need both the random everyday folks and the massive companies to start really doing some stuff all at the same time, I don't see how that works out if we're all just "doing our own thing."

It doesn't do much good for me to work my buttocks off making my home energy efficient if 90% of my neighbors go buy hummers because their "thinking for themselves" leads them to want a big beast of a car and they don't care about the climate. And even if all of them decide to change things, none of it does a whole lot of good if the energy companies still decide that, say, coal is awesomely cheap for making electricity that allows for greater profit margins.

When things demand really broad-scale change, if we wait for everybody thinking for themselves to change it, we're going to be screwed. I say "potato," you say "but I like air conditioning my 5000 sqft house down to 64," how do we get anywhere with that when we're looking at this scale?
Government got us to where we are today. Too much of it is going to kill us period.

It will take a movement from within to make a difference.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

You do know Michael is a Cat 2 now, He's past his peak and will only weaken due to colder waters.
Also 6mph forward speed doesn't help either.
The issues with Michael right now are more with the upper level environment. As you can see on the watervapor loop the storm has gradually become less organized since this morning. Yet cloud tops have not really gotten much warmer which is a sign that instability is still there and SSTs are still warm enough to support the storms intensity.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Sorry, but I have to laugh at this. Isaac enjoys slumming it in the Gulf. Must be that free oil floating around...


Are you serious?

Just go away Isaac, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Abacosurf:
OK....Why is it the governments job??? This mentality that the government has to fix everything is absurd. It kills me to pay taxes when I feel like I am giving it to an out of control crackhead. If I am hungry I work for food or learn to catch or grow it. The more control you let them take the more under their thumb you will be in the future. Think for yourself.... government is not always the answer.


Absolutely... big govts fail miserably trying to do stuff and at a huge expense. Could be an effort to invade Iraq & Iran, stimulus grants to Solyndra, housing bailouts, etc. Either way... same result. Nothing to show, but monster debt to pay. The only thing they can do to actually help us is to make changes to *policy* to incentivize citizens themselves to make good things happen at a more grass roots level suited to their region, state, or county.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1200
Quoting MississippiWx:
Sorry, but I have to laugh at this. Isaac enjoys slumming it in the Gulf. Must be that free oil floating around...


Lol, Isaac's remnants or child will just circulate the GOM for awhile.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Abacosurf:
OK....Why is it the governments job??? This mentality that the government has to fix everything is absurd. It kills me to pay taxes when I feel like I am giving it to an out of control crackhead. If I am hungry I work for food or learn to catch or grow it. The more control you let them take the more under their thumb you will be in the future. Think for yourself.... government is not always the answer.


Government may not always be the answer, but in this, where we need everybody to work in unison and we need both the random everyday folks and the massive companies to start really doing some stuff all at the same time, I don't see how that works out if we're all just "doing our own thing."

It doesn't do much good for me to work my buttocks off making my home energy efficient if 90% of my neighbors go buy hummers because their "thinking for themselves" leads them to want a big beast of a car and they don't care about the climate. And even if all of them decide to change things, none of it does a whole lot of good if the energy companies still decide that, say, coal is awesomely cheap for making electricity that allows for greater profit margins.

When things demand really broad-scale change, if we wait for everybody thinking for themselves to change it, we're going to be screwed. I say "potato," you say "but I like air conditioning my 5000 sqft house down to 64," how do we get anywhere with that when we're looking at this scale?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90L not giving up yet. It's starting to inhale part of the Blobs convection.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry, but I have to laugh at this. Isaac enjoys slumming it in the Gulf. Must be that free oil floating around...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


By East Asia, I use eastern China and Korea as the analog. This represents the bulk of east Asian population at the latitudes being discussed. I was living in China during the entirety of this time and monitoring the conditions in cities from Guangzhou to Haerbin. February and March were particularly cold and wet in all of eastern China.

For Western Europe, I am relying on anecdotal evidence and new stories from places like Britain, France, and the Netherlands. I believe it was also colder than average in the Balkans.

Please note that I am only responding to a request for feedback from an earlier poster and that I consider winter to be December 21 to approximately March 21.


You can find temperature records for much of the globe freely available online. For example, you can check out the GISS site where you can get all kinds of data products.

Add the numbers up yourself. You can clearly see much of the northern hemisphere was abnormally warm this past winter. For extra credit, you can plot the monthly planetary average temperature going back as far as you can and see the clear warming trend.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1448
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, I won't be one to call that Michael would become a Category 3, but I figured when it got named that it might make a run for Category 1.

I figured with these small storms a strong TS-cat1, not a cat3. I was not surprised when I woke up today to find Michael a major though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
311. yoboi
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You're missing the point. Once again, global warming does not mean everywhere will get warmer all at once. It means the global average temperature is increasing. This means more energy in the atmosphere, which influences weather patterns all over the globe. Some areas will get warmer, some will get colder, some will get wetter, and some will get drier. However, on average the planet is warming.

A warm week, month, year, and even decade are still considered the realm of meteorology, not climatology. Climatology deals on multi-decadal scales at a minimum. Therefore, a cold snap or heatwave is not indicative of climate change. However, increasing frequencies/extremes of such events are indicative of climate change. Even then, one must be careful not to confuse regional climate changes with planetary climate changes.



evrything happens in cycles....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2328
Quoting wxchaser97:

Just by a little bit, no one expected Michael to RI.


Well, I won't be one to call that Michael would become a Category 3, but I figured when it got named that it might make a run for Category 1.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:


Well it is a fact that at least one part of the world is not going through GW and its an official government agency in a country that does not need to cover the facts either way as it does not depend on oil ,gas or manufacturing industry and has alot of environmental laws... and I imagine the UK , Norway and Iceland will have similar results...and btw there is no reason to be rude about the Republic of Ireland just because it has issued truthful results about this summer


You're missing the point. Once again, global warming does not mean everywhere will get warmer all at once. It means the global average temperature is increasing. This means more energy in the atmosphere, which influences weather patterns all over the globe. Some areas will get warmer, some will get colder, some will get wetter, and some will get drier. However, on average the planet is warming.

A warm week, month, year, and even decade are still considered the realm of meteorology, not climatology. Climatology deals on multi-decadal scales at a minimum. Therefore, a cold snap or heatwave is not indicative of climate change. However, increasing frequencies/extremes of such events are indicative of climate change. Even then, one must be careful not to confuse regional climate changes with planetary climate changes.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1448
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
ha i real a couple of the comments on upwelling. could leslie commit....hurricanicide?

Once Leslie gets moving upwelling won't be a problem, for know it's the maintaining game again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormHype:
Santa gives two thumbs up for GW as he christens his new Artic base camp.

Is that Gores?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting unknowncomic:
You could sure use the rain. Very wet summer here in FLA. Had two lightning bolts today strike <1/2 mile away scaring daylights out of us.

Yes, we can...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Ha! I hear you.

There are a lot of people who do need to hear it, a lot. I'm not hoping they'll buy a CFL lightbulb, exactly, I'm hoping they'll start making their governments really start doing things, that it'll become something we all share in taking seriously (not just putting responsibility for it on the backs of the folks least able to do a whole lot.)

I'm really feeling pretty awful about the world we're making for -- at this point, not our grandkids -- the kids we know right now, the ones in preschool and elementary school and still 6 months old and only just learning about how to hit stuff with other stuff.

Because there is going to be a lot of starvation if we don't start getting our governments to do stuff. They're going to be adults in a world I don't really want to think about, at this rate. I don't mean that as a guilt trip, I mean that as _urgency_. We're seeing it hitting already, and we really need folks to get that we don't have a whole lot of time to really do something about it.
OK....Why is it the governments job??? This mentality that the government has to fix everything is absurd. It kills me to pay taxes when I feel like I am giving it to an out of control crackhead. If I am hungry I work for food or learn to catch or grow it. The more control you let them take the more under their thumb you will be in the future. Think for yourself.... government is not always the answer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Does anyone want to argue with about this now???


SINCE LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...IT IS PRODUCING UPWELLING
RESULTING IN LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. THE
UPWELLING IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR WOULD NOT FAVOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL LESLIE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
UNDISTURBED WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS
FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEGINNING IN 24 HOURS.

TCHC/OHC is OVERRATED????? I guess the NHC doesn't think so.


Whenever they update the SST overlay map on the satellite products to represent a SST less than the 30C that has been there forever, then I'll be convinced "upwelling" has become an issue.


As it is, their own products don't reflect their discussion...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jascott1967:


Fear mongering liberals terrify me.

Yes, smoking will give us cancer, drinking will cause liver failure, red meat will clog arteries, the sun causes skin cancer...tell us something we don't know.

One of the reasons I smoked as long as I did was partly because people tried to beat me up over it.


Oh look, an ad hominem argument wielding a brush to paint some group as an "enemy" instead of using some critical thinking skills to actually look at and analyze the data.

Good thing we've never seen that before on the blog. It might get boring if every denier of science used the same tactic.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1448
Quoting AussieStorm:
A question for everyone. If President Obama or Mitt Romney is voted in to presidency. What would all your reactions be if after started the new term, they decide to introduce a Carbon Tax. Would you be in favor or against such a tax?
Based on the correlation between words and actions for both of these individuals, I would not believe either of them. Just as the Department of the Interior has been used to rape the land, and the Department of Labor has been used to bust Unions, and the Department of Education has been used to destroy teachers...my working assumption is that anything either of these guys propose to help reduce carbon emissions would end up being a perversion and a cover for corporations to continue Business As Usual.

Until a real leader appears, we have to be the solution, somehow. Somehow we have to give up our attachments to our current way of life as best we can, and teach our children well.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
Quoting StormHype:
Speaking of "death spirals".... what happened to 90L?

Dry air and shear have gotten to it, it could still develop but it is becoming less likely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Speaking of "death spirals".... what happened to 90L?
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1200
Not quite sure how discussing climate change is off topic to a post about the huge melt of the arctic ice this year, frankly.

I realize most folks here are here to track tropical systems, and I like that, too, but for one, it's all interconnected, and for two, this post is _about climate changes in the arctic_.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A question regarding Arctic melt:

It's almost inevitable that at some point within the next couple of years the north pole will be completely ice free during the summer peak... what happens to the north pole station that is situated up there? I mean, will they eventually just close up shop and take down the webcam and bases that are set up, or will it all just sit there until the ice melts and it sinks to the bottom of the Arctic? ...i don't know how permanent the base/any base structures are on the north pole.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


Sea levels have only risen 8 inches in the last 140 years. Nobody has their head in the sand, but many of the doom predictions of sea level rising of 10-15 years ago have not come to pass. The current upper latitude warming trend could change this, of course, but it's clear, too, that Dr. Masters has an agenda, given the tone of his recent articles. For example, "shattered the all-time low" and "far below what has ever been observed" is very strong language when the observable new record was only set a week ago.


Care to quote the peer reviewed research making sea level rise predictions from 10-15 years ago? Of course you don't, because you can't. They don't exist.

The IPCC is the most general source of information on sea level rise predictions, and that had predictions of 18 to 59 centimeters by the end of the century.

The only agenda Dr. M has is to combat ignorance through facts and knowledge.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1448
Quoting guygee:
Yeah I will admit that I am addicted and I will watch it to the very end, whatever and whenever that may be.


good. that is what I do sometimes, I watch it to the end, because in one area it may not do a thing, but in another it could do the opposite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mike meandering a bit..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20489
Still a good looking hurricane, but not as good as this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


A question for everyone.

If President Obama or Mitt Romney is voted in to presidency. What would all your reactions be if after started the new term, they decide to introduce a Carbon Tax. Would you be in favor or against such a tax.


I would be cautiously in favor, but I would really want to see the raised tax money redistributed into (1) help for folks who really can't afford the passed on increase in energy prices, since we don't have nearly enough carbon-neutral energy production in place yet -- nobody already really struggling should have to take that hit without help -- and (2) _major_ homeowner subsidies for stuff like solar panels where they make sense/energy efficiency upgrades/any other reasonable ways to help people transition, money into research for carbon-neutral energy production, so on.

My caution would be because people are already really struggling, and because we have this nasty way of taking in revenue saying that it's going to "thing X" and then switching that up in bizarre ways so that it winds up going to nothing of the sort.

I would much prefer that we don't keep just raising prices as a means to forcing change. There are a lot of folks who really can't afford that unless we already have a lot of alternatives in place. It's the poor who drive the gas guzzlers. They need them to get to work. I've been there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flibinite:
Good blog article, Jeff and Angela, but you lost me right at the very end. First, you say this...

"Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years."

Then you end the article with this...

"The scientists concluded that given the lack of evidence that natural forces were controlling sea ice fluctuations, the majority of sea ice decline we've seen during the 1953 - 2010 period was due to human causes."

So, were "humans" somehow responsible for what happened 1,450 years ago, too?

Maybe humans are responsible for most of the currently apparent global warming... I'm not dogmatic that we're not. But I think, considering how much we don't know about climate fluctuations, that the jury is still out, and I hate to see any scientist definitively state that such things as recent Arctic icemelts are a direct result of human activities on this planet.

Jo


No. You should read the study to get the answers to your questions as more than enough detail is presented there to answer them.

And we know plenty about climate fluctuations. Even 100+ years ago climate scientists knew that greenhouse gases were what made the planet livable, and that increasing them would warm the planet and alter the climate. They didn't have computers, and still their simple models (based on the laws of thermodynamics) could predict that consequence.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1448
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
CMC it go to FL then it go to TX!!

That would be something else to watch, Tx needs the rain though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

we need to watch what that ULL and ULH/ULAC does
Yeah I will admit that I am addicted and I will watch it to the very end, whatever and whenever that may be.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
CMC it go to FL then it go to TX!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4387
CMC
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4387
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's safe to say the NHC underestimated Michael a little...

INIT 03/2100Z 25.6N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Just by a little bit, no one expected Michael to RI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 334 - 284

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
76 °F
Scattered Clouds