90L in the Gulf disorganized; Leslie almost stationary; Michael hits Cat 3

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:24 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

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A remnant of Hurricane Isaac pushed southwards through Alabama on Wednesday and emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and this disturbance is now being tracked as Invest 90L. Long-range radar out of New Orleans shows only a small area of heavy rainfall associated with 90L. The echoes show a little spiral banding behavior, and there is some slight evidence of rotation to the echoes. Visible satellite loops and surface observations from buoys and oil rigs in the Gulf suggest that 90L has formed an ill-defined, elongated surface circulation. The area covered by heavy thunderstorms is relatively small, and is pushed to the south side of the circulation center by strong northerly winds that are creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. There is a large amount of dry air that surrounds 90L on all sides that is interfering with development. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L this afternoon, but this flight may be cancelled if 90L does not show more organization in the next few hours.


Figure 1. Invest 90L off the coast of the Florida Panhandle as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:30 pm EDT Wednesday September 5, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 90L
Wind shear is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by tonight. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf have been cooled down considerably by the passage of Hurricane Isaac last week, and are 28.5° - 29°C. This is plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will increase in organization today and Friday as it moves slowly south-southwest. A trough of low pressure and an associated surface cold front will move southeastwards over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and this trough should be capable of pulling 90L to the northeast to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. I put these odds a bit higher, at 50%.

Leslie remains nearly stationary
Hurricane Leslie continues to remain nearly stationary south of the island of Bermuda. Moderately high wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the west drove dry air to Leslie's west into the core of the storm last night, eroding away Leslie's eye. However, satellite loops show that Leslie is pulling a curved band of heavy thunderstorms around the west side of the center, in an attempt to form a new eye. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification, and NOAA buoy 41049 recorded a 1°C (1.8°F) drop in water temperature over the past 24 hours. A uncrewed Global Hawk NASA research aircraft is scheduled to fly in the stratosphere above Leslie this evening to study the hurricane's upper-level outflow. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to do a regular mission on Friday afternoon.


Figure 2. Hurricane Leslie as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:15 pm EDT Wednesday September 5, 2012. At the time, Leslie was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Leslie
Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. The timing of this trough is such that Leslie will be pulled northwards and then north-northeastwards over the weekend. There is significantly less agreement among the models today in the timing and speed of Leslie's track, though. The models have shifted eastwards, which lessens the threat to Bermuda and puts the island on the weak (left) side of the hurricane. If the official NHC forecast verifies, tropical storm-force winds will not begin on Bermuda until late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Friday night. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification, and potentially allow Leslie to be at Category 2 strength at its closest pass by Bermuda Sunday morning, as indicated by the official NHC forecast. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 40% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 230 miles by Sunday.

Most of the models still indicate Leslie is likely to make landfall in Canada, but have shifted eastwards towards Newfoundland and away from Nova Scotia. The GFS model predicts a Thursday landfall in Newfoundland, but the ECMWF model is much faster, predicting a Tuesday landfall in Newfoundland. Given the wide spread in model guidance, what Leslie might do as it approaches Canada is highly uncertain. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and these waves will increase in size as Leslie grows in size and strength this week.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Michael.

Hurricane Michael hits Category 3
The first major hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is Hurricane Michael, which put on a unanticipated round of rapid intensification last night to become a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Michael is the 7th hurricane of the season, putting 2012 in 3rd place behind 1893 and 1886 for earliest formation date of the season's 7th hurricane. We made it through 12 named storms before getting our first major hurricane, which is a rare occurrence. The only times the Atlantic has had as many as 12 named storms before getting a major hurricane was in 1936 and 1934. In both years, Hurricane 13 was the first major hurricane (note, though, that the 5th storm of 1936 is listed as a Category 3 landfall in Florida, but had maximum winds of 90 mph--definitely not Cat 3 winds--so there is a problem with the hurricane database for this storm.) Satellite loops show that Michael is an impressive storm with a well-developed eye, excellent spiral banding, and solid upper-level outflow. Michael is far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming seven days. Michael has likely peaked in intensity, and will not reach Category 4.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. This wave is predicted to exit Africa too far north to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is too early to be confident of this.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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360. RTSplayer
9:27 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing pic here too....Mars


The "Forbidden Fruit" of Planetology.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1496
359. Neapolitan
9:19 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting sar2401:


Yes, seriously. First, my comment was directed at only one thing, clearly flawed hurricane season number forecasting. You expanded that to "weather and climate forecasts", commiting the logical fallacy of killing the messenger for something he didn't say. Continuing to issue forecasts that have been shown to be no better than chance are not forecasts, they are guesses. You test theories among other scientists, test them against actual results, and release results to the public when the theories have been shown to have some validity. The quotes are precisely because the people who do this are not behaving like scientists, they are paid guessers. They could at least include a probability of their forecast being correct, but something like 50/50 doesn't sound very scientific....because it isn't.

You always get you panties in a wad when anyone questions "educated, degreed, and experienced tropical meteorologists", but none of their education, degrees, or experience means squat when they continue to be wrong more often than right. Believe it or not, some of us other than you really do have some education in the scientific method, and understand the difference between guessing and science. Imagine what the reaction would be if scientists that design tires kept guessing about how they would perform, released them to the public, and then modified their guesses depending on how many tires failed? You test these theories first and release tires to the public when the statistical outcomes are at least better than chance. Are saying seriously that hurricane season forecasting matches your definition of science?

I have a lot of respect for your education and knowledge, but your condescending attitude towards me and other blog members when it comes to questioning your definition of truth really sticks in my craw. Your use of the term "sarcastic scare quotes" is a perfect example.
(I don't know whether you'll see this, as a new blog post is up. But I don't want to pollute that one, so I'll leave this one here.)

It's been my experience that people who place the word scientists in scare quotes aren't dealing fairly to begin with, so when they accuse someone who questions their reasoning for doing so of committing a logical fallacy, that really does ring hollow.

As to "getting my panties in a wad": first, I seldom wear panties (though congrats for using an elementary school phrase I thought went out with disco). But when they do "get in a wad" is when people far less educated in the meteorological and climatological sciences than the experts at the NHC and NOAA--and with far fewer higher level degrees in those sciences, and with far less experience in the field, and with far less pressure on them due to their use of anonymous forum handles--insult or belittle that education, and those degrees, and that experience. Now, this is an open forum, for the most part, so feel free to continue bashing those folks. But just know that some of us bristle at such unfair and unfounded treatment of those professionals, so we're likely to rise to their defense.

(Your tire analogy falls, er, flat, by the way. Every mainstream tire manufacturer has an entire department dedicated solely to improving their products' treadwear, traction, and handling. The tires are field tested, tweaked, tested some more, tweaked some more, and so on, for however many iterations it takes to make them right.)

Bottom line: yes, I am most definitely saying that hurricane season forecasting--that is, forecasting by the likes of the UK Met Office, NOAA, Drs Gray and Klotzbach, etc.--matches my definition of science. But far more importantly, it matches the dictionary's definition, as well.

(BTW, I'm sorry you were offended by my use of the term "scare quotes". But that's what they're called. My usage of terminology with which some may be unfamiliar isn't condescension; it's just me striving to use the most correct and economical word or phrase available. Anyway, when one encounters strange terminology while reading, isn't it best to simply research that term instead of accusing the writer of condescension?)

Have a good evening...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13259
358. indianrivguy
8:59 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting Hoff511:


What really gets me is when I compare Stuart inlet to Jupiter inlet. It's night and day. Army Corps of Engineers need to let lake O flow SOUTH like it's supposed to!


I agree, but sugar money makes that unlikely. Nice shot of you in the North Prong. A lot of storm water coming through now, and more is probable.

Largo.. beautiful image.. we feel the same.. its on my bucket list.

If it WERE visible here, it might be accompanied by the total collapse of all things electrical from the epic solar storm that brought them this far south.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2429
357. wxchaser97
8:54 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
This is a strong/ fun storm to track but luckily not affecting anyone.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
356. LargoFl
8:54 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


In Norway, we would see them almost every night in the winter. Sometimes they would last all night.



This is over Trondheim

oh my, I'd be sitting out there all night long watching that show
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
355. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
354. jascott1967
8:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
It's Never Sunny in Florida.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
353. Grothar
8:52 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
just once I'd like to see this in the night sky!


In Norway, we would see them almost every night in the winter. Sometimes they would last all night.



This is over Trondheim

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23700
352. LargoFl
8:52 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
351. LargoFl
8:51 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting Hoff511:
I don't think we would want an event so strong as to see them down here. It'd be pretty to look at, but pretty destructive too.
yes that was taken yesterday i think, particles from a solar flare hitting our magnetic field
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
350. Hoff511
8:49 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
I don't think we would want an event so strong as to see them down here. It'd be pretty to look at, but pretty destructive too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 261
349. wxchaser97
8:49 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Bad storm for Eastern great Lakes and surrounding areas..

Oh goody, just what I need, a bad storm.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
348. LargoFl
8:49 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
amazing pic here too....Mars
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
347. sandiquiz
8:49 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
just once I'd like to see this in the night sky!


So would I ..... It has been on my todo list for years!
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 277 Comments: 25301
346. indianrivguy
8:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Indianriver........ That's such a shame.... The Intracoastal down south of you where I live is pretty nasty all of the time. Maybe we should all meet at Captain Hiram's and discuss the issue.


Where's down there? Lake Worth?

We've got some serious issues up here. A large die off of seagrass meadows in the central lagoon, and now the added burden of Okeechobee Lake discharges in the southern lagoon and St. Lucie. Its a tough time for a lot of the lil' sea creatures right now.



Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2429
345. LargoFl
8:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Largo, Spent 2 long years at Eielson AFB with my ex... It was cold, but the lights were wonderful
gee,they never happen down here, wow what an amazing event it would be here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
344. LargoFl
8:46 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting Hoff511:
Yes you do Largo! It's so worth taking a trip north to see it, but it is so hit and miss, you pretty much have to go last minute. Still worth it imo though
wow sure must be beautiful to see, especially on a clear night..maybe someday
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
343. Hoff511
8:40 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Yes you do Largo! It's so worth taking a trip north to see it, but it is so hit and miss, you pretty much have to go last minute. Still worth it imo though
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 261
342. PalmBeachWeather
8:40 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
just once I'd like to see this in the night sky!
Largo, Spent 2 long years at Eielson AFB with my ex... It was cold, but the lights were wonderful
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5745
341. LargoFl
8:39 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
just once I'd like to see this in the night sky!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
340. Hoff511
8:37 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting indianrivguy:


That's awful....

water quality in the St. Lucie and Indian River lagoons has gone to hell in a handbasket.. and will get worse as they dump Okeechobee water on us.


What really gets me is when I compare Stuart inlet to Jupiter inlet. It's night and day. Army Corps of Engineers need to let lake O flow SOUTH like it's supposed to!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 261
339. AldreteMichael
8:33 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Hurricane Michael is the first Category 3 in the Atlantic basin this season, but if I remember correctly, wasn't Michael early on in it's life forecast to weaken and then die out when it was only a minimal strength tropical storm? If so, WHY was the forecast so far off?
Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
338. LargoFl
8:33 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
430 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER GARNER...OR OVER RALEIGH...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW HOPE...
KNIGHTDALE...
CLAYTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
337. LargoFl
8:32 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
You got that right Largo
hope you guys dont get more flooding from all this coming the next several days, you've had enough,gee
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
336. PalmBeachWeather
8:30 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting indianrivguy:


That's awful....

water quality in the St. Lucie and Indian River lagoons has gone to hell in a handbasket.. and will get worse as they dump Okeechobee water on us.
Indianriver........ That's such a shame.... The Intracoastal down south of you where I live is pretty nasty all of the time. Maybe we should all meet at Captain Hiram's and discuss the issue.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5745
335. PalmBeachWeather
8:27 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
you know..its like west palm beach has a bullseye painted on it these last few weeks huh
You got that right Largo
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5745
334. LargoFl
8:27 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
333. LargoFl
8:25 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
421 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

FLC099-062045-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-120906T2045Z/
PALM BEACH FL-
421 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 417 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LION
COUNTRY SAFARI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
332. guygee
8:25 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

Clash of the Seabreezes in East Central Florida
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3058
331. indianrivguy
8:23 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting gulfcoastmom1969:


but you know they ( BP ) says its all good and our gulf is safe.........i live near the beach and i know what they have done to cover up the oil.. sand sifters, ect... and now they have just about pulled everyone saying the job is done... and its not ..... to many dead dolphins.... and dont say it was the cold weather ... last winter was warm....this is a hot topic for me as i grew up on the beaches and loved taking my grandbabies to put them right in as soon as we could the oldest was a week old and her toes went in the sand and water.. the youngest well he will be one in nov and i have yet to put his toes in... i want my grandbabies to know the beach and love it... now back to the tropics and 90 l let it bring more of the oil up so we can clean up our beach...


I know exactly how you feel...

The Feds filed suit yesterday;
Business BP Deepwater Horizon: US ramps up rhetoric on BP over oil spill Link
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2429
330. LargoFl
8:22 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Bad storm for Eastern great Lakes and surrounding areas..
yeah and alot of warning out up there too
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
329. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:22 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Not sure if this has been posted yet.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
328. hydrus
8:20 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Bad storm for Eastern great Lakes and surrounding areas..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19504
327. GeoffreyWPB
8:17 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10577
326. CaribBoy
8:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Considering tropics are between 23N and 23S THEN WE CAN SAY THAT TROPICS ARE DEAD. What's going on! Where is the MJO!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5588
325. Maineweatherguy20023
8:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Snow

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE!!! I WANT SNOW!!!!
As for 90L, well it is called DEAD arent we getting to DMIN though???
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 240
324. bappit
8:14 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting sar2401:


If that blob comes back to Alabama, I'm going to find the COC and personally strangle it until it's really, truly, dead. :)

Nothing quite like a nice strangulation reference in the afternoon. With a smiley no less.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5558
323. LargoFl
8:14 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
322. Maineweatherguy20023
8:12 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting unknowncomic:
This does not look good.


ya well, i would REALLY like a CAT 5 in the middle of the Atlantic that looks spectacular and kicks up a HUGE swell but does not hit land!!
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 240
321. LargoFl
8:10 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
401 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 356 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELLE
GLADE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
BELLE GLADE...
LOXAHATCHEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...
LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY INSIDE AWAY
FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
320. CaribBoy
8:10 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
MDR is dead = dead blog
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5588
319. CaribBoy
8:08 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


They must read the blog because there's no way that term is used anywhere.


LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5588
318. LargoFl
8:07 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
317. Skyepony (Mod)
8:06 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Most reliable models currently have 90L moving east over Central Florida and moving down along the East coast of Florida.



Here's the numbers to back that up. The models that start with the letters A & T are outperforming the other models so far on 90L.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36062
316. CaribBoy
8:05 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
For me!! A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4:45PM EDT THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 06


HERE IS DRY AIR WARNING
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5588
315. CaribBoy
8:05 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Yes of course that's great :((((((((((

NOT ONLY PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
BUT ALSO CLOUDS. STRONG CAPPING HOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5588
314. SFLWeatherman
8:04 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
For me!! A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4:45PM EDT THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 06
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
313. LargoFl
8:04 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-062100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
355 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 5 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING NEAR THESE STORMS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273
312. gulfcoastmom1969
8:04 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting indianrivguy:


Up until Dennis riled up the Gulf, I was seeing shrimp with lesions from crude oil on nearly every delivery to the tackle shop I work in.


but you know they ( BP ) says its all good and our gulf is safe.........i live near the beach and i know what they have done to cover up the oil.. sand sifters, ect... and now they have just about pulled everyone saying the job is done... and its not ..... to many dead dolphins.... and dont say it was the cold weather ... last winter was warm....this is a hot topic for me as i grew up on the beaches and loved taking my grandbabies to put them right in as soon as we could the oldest was a week old and her toes went in the sand and water.. the youngest well he will be one in nov and i have yet to put his toes in... i want my grandbabies to know the beach and love it... now back to the tropics and 90 l let it bring more of the oil up so we can clean up our beach...
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 167
311. icmoore
8:03 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah it's hard to tell what will happen. I do think it will be a pretty large rain maker. Coastal areas tend to get the most with these setups so I think we will see a lot. Flooding never really get's that bad in Pinellas because the ocean is always nearby for the excess water to drain off. We have seen enough rain this summer to flood a a home underwater several times over but we have only seen short term street flooding about 20+ times this summer but it never gets really bad and quickly drains off after it's done raining, often as early as later in the day.


We had a nice little storm here in Madeira Beach today, brief but fun to watch with the sideways rain and a neighbors outdoor umbrella getting turned inside out :)
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4140
310. LargoFl
8:03 PM GMT on September 06, 2012
Quoting Grothar:



?
some of the models do send it back to the northern gulf coast..but better ones say central florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33273

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.