90L in the Gulf disorganized; Leslie almost stationary; Michael hits Cat 3

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:24 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

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A remnant of Hurricane Isaac pushed southwards through Alabama on Wednesday and emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and this disturbance is now being tracked as Invest 90L. Long-range radar out of New Orleans shows only a small area of heavy rainfall associated with 90L. The echoes show a little spiral banding behavior, and there is some slight evidence of rotation to the echoes. Visible satellite loops and surface observations from buoys and oil rigs in the Gulf suggest that 90L has formed an ill-defined, elongated surface circulation. The area covered by heavy thunderstorms is relatively small, and is pushed to the south side of the circulation center by strong northerly winds that are creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. There is a large amount of dry air that surrounds 90L on all sides that is interfering with development. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L this afternoon, but this flight may be cancelled if 90L does not show more organization in the next few hours.


Figure 1. Invest 90L off the coast of the Florida Panhandle as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:30 pm EDT Wednesday September 5, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 90L
Wind shear is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by tonight. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf have been cooled down considerably by the passage of Hurricane Isaac last week, and are 28.5° - 29°C. This is plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will increase in organization today and Friday as it moves slowly south-southwest. A trough of low pressure and an associated surface cold front will move southeastwards over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and this trough should be capable of pulling 90L to the northeast to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. I put these odds a bit higher, at 50%.

Leslie remains nearly stationary
Hurricane Leslie continues to remain nearly stationary south of the island of Bermuda. Moderately high wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the west drove dry air to Leslie's west into the core of the storm last night, eroding away Leslie's eye. However, satellite loops show that Leslie is pulling a curved band of heavy thunderstorms around the west side of the center, in an attempt to form a new eye. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification, and NOAA buoy 41049 recorded a 1°C (1.8°F) drop in water temperature over the past 24 hours. A uncrewed Global Hawk NASA research aircraft is scheduled to fly in the stratosphere above Leslie this evening to study the hurricane's upper-level outflow. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to do a regular mission on Friday afternoon.


Figure 2. Hurricane Leslie as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:15 pm EDT Wednesday September 5, 2012. At the time, Leslie was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Leslie
Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. The timing of this trough is such that Leslie will be pulled northwards and then north-northeastwards over the weekend. There is significantly less agreement among the models today in the timing and speed of Leslie's track, though. The models have shifted eastwards, which lessens the threat to Bermuda and puts the island on the weak (left) side of the hurricane. If the official NHC forecast verifies, tropical storm-force winds will not begin on Bermuda until late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Friday night. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification, and potentially allow Leslie to be at Category 2 strength at its closest pass by Bermuda Sunday morning, as indicated by the official NHC forecast. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 40% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 230 miles by Sunday.

Most of the models still indicate Leslie is likely to make landfall in Canada, but have shifted eastwards towards Newfoundland and away from Nova Scotia. The GFS model predicts a Thursday landfall in Newfoundland, but the ECMWF model is much faster, predicting a Tuesday landfall in Newfoundland. Given the wide spread in model guidance, what Leslie might do as it approaches Canada is highly uncertain. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and these waves will increase in size as Leslie grows in size and strength this week.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Michael.

Hurricane Michael hits Category 3
The first major hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is Hurricane Michael, which put on a unanticipated round of rapid intensification last night to become a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Michael is the 7th hurricane of the season, putting 2012 in 3rd place behind 1893 and 1886 for earliest formation date of the season's 7th hurricane. We made it through 12 named storms before getting our first major hurricane, which is a rare occurrence. The only times the Atlantic has had as many as 12 named storms before getting a major hurricane was in 1936 and 1934. In both years, Hurricane 13 was the first major hurricane (note, though, that the 5th storm of 1936 is listed as a Category 3 landfall in Florida, but had maximum winds of 90 mph--definitely not Cat 3 winds--so there is a problem with the hurricane database for this storm.) Satellite loops show that Michael is an impressive storm with a well-developed eye, excellent spiral banding, and solid upper-level outflow. Michael is far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming seven days. Michael has likely peaked in intensity, and will not reach Category 4.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. This wave is predicted to exit Africa too far north to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is too early to be confident of this.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:



?
some of the models do send it back to the northern gulf coast..but better ones say central florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Sometimes it's the sloppy systems that can dump the most rain.


True, the heaviest rain we ever got in recent times here was from a depression, not a hurricane. Got to watch those sloppy ones, Geoff.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Snow
oh man send some of that MY way will ya..humidty and heat wise its terrible here..come'on fall hurry up here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting sar2401:


If that blob comes back to Alabama, I'm going to find the COC and personally strangle it until it's really, truly, dead. :)



?
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Quoting HoraceDebussyJones:
Quoting fireflymom:This should be a pole, it is the political season. Leslie is trying hard to claim her piece of Atlantic real estate.

I would add fourth class for myself--Weather Flunkie

" A weather junkie with no knowledge"---unlike most on this blog!!
and add a 5th one..people who just care about other people in harms way, and listen im not..climbing no pole LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


That's awful....

water quality in the St. Lucie and Indian River lagoons has gone to hell in a handbasket.. and will get worse as they dump Okeechobee water on us.
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Snow
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
you know..its like west palm beach has a bullseye painted on it these last few weeks huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting fireflymom:This should be a pole, it is the political season. Leslie is trying hard to claim her piece of Atlantic real estate.

I would add fourth class for myself--Weather Flunkie

" A weather junkie with no knowledge"---unlike most on this blog!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Most reliable models currently have 90L moving east over Central Florida and moving down along the East coast of Florida.



If that blob comes back to Alabama, I'm going to find the COC and personally strangle it until it's really, truly, dead. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16043
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Sometimes it's the sloppy systems that can dump the most rain.
yes your right there, i do hope whatever comes is a fast mover, if that front stalls out on top of central florida we could see some trouble
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Looks like 90L is poofing, with its convection ripped away so far to the SW it has no reason to live. I will wait for Dmax tonight before I call RIP, but the small llc looks to be winding down.
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350 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

.NOW...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...STRONG STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SEMINOLE AND CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. TORRENTIAL RAINS
CAPABLE OF MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WERE THE MAIN THREAT WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE.

A LARGE BOUNDARY COLLISION WAS IMMINENT FROM INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH EASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...EAST-CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...EAST
OSCEOLA COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THIS SHOULD IGNITE
ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WHICH MAY
CAUSE NUISANCE MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER IT MAY MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE SMALL
CRAFT BOATING CONCERNS WOULD BE AFFECTED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting LargoFl:
yes thats what the state water guy said, alot depends on what happens with 90L..he said some area's could get more than that over several days this weekend..well rainfall wise, my neighborhood can stand that, maybe some intersections with water on them..we'll see


Sometimes it's the sloppy systems that can dump the most rain.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11269
Quoting gulfcoastmom1969:


bp sank the oil and now it some of it has been washed ashore.. we know there are large mats off our beaches here in alabama..and yes some of it broke off and came on the beaches... going to take a long time for all of it to be washed ashore


Up until Dennis riled up the Gulf, I was seeing shrimp with lesions from crude oil on nearly every delivery to the tackle shop I work in.
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This should be a pole, it is the political season. Leslie is trying hard to claim her piece of Atlantic real estate.
Quoting NOLALawyer:


This blog basically has three types:

The Hand Wringers
The Cheerleaders
The Weather Junkies

It is pretty easy to ascertain who belongs to which group.


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hey stormtracker2k..you ok over there?...........SEMINOLE-ORANGE-
337 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER PARK...PINE HILLS...ORLANDO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...ORLANDO...OAK RIDGE...MAITLAND...
WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...WEKIVA SPRINGS...
SANFORD...OVIEDO...LONGWOOD...LAKE MARY...LAKE JESSUP...FOREST
CITY...CASSELBERRY...ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT.

* AT 333 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL
ORANGE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE
DUMPING IN UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY. THESE SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE CRUISE CONTROL AND SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY
RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting RitaEvac:
Tests confirm oil washed ashore during Isaac came from BP spill


"This is not oil everywhere," Overton said. He said the difference between the amounts of oil being exposed now by Isaac and what the Gulf saw in 2010 is "night and day."




bp sank the oil and now it some of it has been washed ashore.. we know there are large mats off our beaches here in alabama..and yes some of it broke off and came on the beaches... going to take a long time for all of it to be washed ashore
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah it's hard to tell what will happen. I do think it will be a pretty large rain maker. Coastal areas tend to get the most with these setups so I think we will see a lot. Flooding never really get's that bad in Pinellas because the ocean is always nearby for the excess water to drain off. We have seen enough rain this summer to flood a a home underwater several times over but we have only seen short term street flooding about 20+ times this summer but it never gets really bad and quickly drains off after it's done raining, often as early as later in the day.
yeah our part of the county is lucky that way..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting Neapolitan:
So, because weather and climate forecasts aren't perfect, NOAA shouldn't bother with them at all?

Seriously?

Too, why sarcastic scare quotes around the word "scientists"? Do you not feel the educated, degreed, and experienced tropical meteorologists at the NOAA are worthy of their titles?

Science is all about testing theories--theories in this context being forecasts--then tweaking those theories until they match observations. That's how science improves. So without "wasting time and money" on those forecasts, the science will never get better.


Yes, seriously. First, my comment was directed at only one thing, clearly flawed hurricane season number forecasting. You expanded that to "weather and climate forecasts", commiting the logical fallacy of killing the messenger for something he didn't say. Continuing to issue forecasts that have been shown to be no better than chance are not forecasts, they are guesses. You test theories among other scientists, test them against actual results, and release results to the public when the theories have been shown to have some validity. The quotes are precisely because the people who do this are not behaving like scientists, they are paid guessers. They could at least include a probability of their forecast being correct, but something like 50/50 doesn't sound very scientific....because it isn't.

You always get you panties in a wad when anyone questions "educated, degreed, and experienced tropical meteorologists", but none of their education, degrees, or experience means squat when they continue to be wrong more often than right. Believe it or not, some of us other than you really do have some education in the scientific method, and understand the difference between guessing and science. Imagine what the reaction would be if scientists that design tires kept guessing about how they would perform, released them to the public, and then modified their guesses depending on how many tires failed? You test these theories first and release tires to the public when the statistical outcomes are at least better than chance. Are saying seriously that hurricane season forecasting matches your definition of science?

I have a lot of respect for your education and knowledge, but your condescending attitude towards me and other blog members when it comes to questioning your definition of truth really sticks in my craw. Your use of the term "sarcastic scare quotes" is a perfect example.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16043
here is the rainfall estimates for 24 hours from today into tomorroww..notice one spot on the east coast with 4-5 inches predicted..and 90L and the cold front isnt even anywhere near yet....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting LargoFl:
yes thats what the state water guy said, alot depends on what happens with 90L..he said some area's could get more than that over several days this weekend..well rainfall wise, my neighborhood can stand that, maybe some intersections with water on them..we'll see


Yeah it's hard to tell what will happen. I do think it will be a pretty large rain maker. Coastal areas tend to get the most with these setups so I think we will see a lot. Flooding never really get's that bad in Pinellas because the ocean is always nearby for the excess water to drain off. We have seen enough rain this summer to flood a a home underwater several times over but we have only seen short term street flooding about 20+ times this summer but it never gets really bad and quickly drains off after it's done raining, often as early as later in the day.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7568
Tests confirm oil washed ashore during Isaac came from BP spill


"This is not oil everywhere," Overton said. He said the difference between the amounts of oil being exposed now by Isaac and what the Gulf saw in 2010 is "night and day."


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Quoting Jedkins01:


Well, it's a pretty weak system so I don't know about 6 to 8 inches, but as it moves east in a couple days and merges with the front there could be some pretty heavy amounts. We'll see.
yes thats what the state water guy said, alot depends on what happens with 90L..he said some area's could get more than that over several days this weekend..well rainfall wise, my neighborhood can stand that, maybe some intersections with water on them..we'll see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah guess we are the ones getting those 6-8 inches of rain..we'll see


Well, it's a pretty weak system so I don't know about 6 to 8 inches, but as it moves east in a couple days and merges with the front there could be some pretty heavy amounts. We'll see.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7568
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
yep its florida's turn next several days..........BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 330 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
OKEELANTA...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
OR LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION, SEEK SHELTER IN
AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

WATERSPOUTS: THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF
WATERSPOUTS.

WIND: WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

FLOODING: ALTHOUGH AREAS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS FLOODING
CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH
COUNTY WITH SOME ROADS STILL IMPASSABLE DUE TO STANDING WATERS. THE
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES: THE HEAT INDEX COULD REACH NEAR ONE HUNDRED DEGREES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TODAY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
320 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN BROWARD
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT AREA...AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
OKEELANTA...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
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Leslie Bermuda Approach Intensities Forecast.

I quit using Euro since it sucks for intensity.

Model raw / adj

12z GFDL 961mb / 968mb
12z HWRF 971mb / 977mb
12z GFS 973 / 960mb

avg raw: 968mb
avg adj: 968mb

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300 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN HIGHLANDS...SEBASTIAN...
WINTER BEACH...WABASSO...VERO BEACH SOUTH...VERO BEACH...
ROSELAND...INDIAN RIVER SHORES...GIFFORD...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

* AT 259 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DRIFTING
EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN SEBASTIAN INLEST AND VERO BEACH. THE FLOODING
THREAT WILL BE GREATER DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONE ISAAC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS
ARE IN USE.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting Grothar:
Most reliable models currently have 90L moving east over Central Florida and moving down along the East coast of Florida.

yeah guess we are the ones getting those 6-8 inches of rain..we'll see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, Henry VIII started that line about "eating crow" I told him once there were no more blackbirds for the pie, and he replied, "Let them eat crow"


HAHAHAHA That has got to be one of the funniest things I've read all week. Good one Grothar.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NOAA - August 9, 2012
12-17 storms
5-8 hurricanes
2-3 major hurricanes


At 13-7-1, that hurricane number will probably need adjusting up.
The storm number and Major hurricane numbers are in jeopardy too, but not as badly as is the hurricanes forecast.
Keep in mind that last year, only four of the season's 19 storms formed after September 10. A repeat of that this year, with just one (major) hurricane among those four, would validate that forecast.
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Quoting Grothar:


Oh, Henry VIII started that line about "eating crow" I told him once there were no more blackbirds for the pie, and he replied, "Let them eat crow"


YEA I love it as I "always say" LOL, Gro knows, hahaha! Although I am near as old as you I never have been allowed to rub elbows with the upper crust :)
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Most reliable models currently have 90L moving east over Central Florida and moving down along the East coast of Florida.

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Quoting NOLALawyer:


This blog basically has three types:

The Hand Wringers
The Cheerleaders
The Weather Junkies

It is pretty easy to ascertain who belongs to which group.

To which group do you belong?
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some state water guy was on the radio saying depending on what happens with 90L and the cold front moving in..some area's of florida COULD get 6-8 inches or more of rain before the weekend is out..COULD is the key word here..lakes are full mostly..we'll see what happens huh..most area's he said would get 2-4 inches of rain.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting sar2401:

I wish they would stop wasting the time and money used to create those forecasts. The results have shown consistently that they are little better than chance, yet they, and a bunch of other "scientists", keep doing this, year after year. They occasionally get one right, but even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. The numbers of hurricanes in a season might be useful for planning purposes, but they are nowhere near accurate enough to anything but lull people into a false sense of security (slow season ahead) or get people all nervous (DOOM season ahead).
So, because weather and climate forecasts aren't perfect, NOAA shouldn't bother with them at all?

Seriously?

Too, why the sarcastic scare quotes around the word "scientists"? Do you not feel the educated, degreed, and experienced tropical meteorologists at the NOAA are worthy of their titles?

Science is all about testing theories--theories in this context being forecasts--then tweaking those theories until they match observations. That's how science improves. So without "wasting time and money" on those forecasts, the science will never get better.
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Quoting icmoore:


LOL that must be it :) of course it has been said since the 1500's, too just ask Gro.


Oh, Henry VIII started that line about "eating crow" I told him once there were no more blackbirds for the pie, and he replied, "Let them eat crow"
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Maybe Leslie is going to become a permanent atmospheric feature or something, like the Great Red Spot on Jupiter.

It hasn't moved in days.
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Euro is way more west with this future storm. Still think it recurves but something to watch
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NOAA - August 9, 2012
12-17 storms
5-8 hurricanes
2-3 major hurricanes


At 13-7-1, that hurricane number will probably need adjusting up.
The storm number and Major hurricane numbers are in jeopardy too, but not as badly as is the hurricanes forecast.

I wish they would stop wasting the time and money used to create those forecasts. The results have shown consistently that they are little better than chance, yet they, and a bunch of other "scientists", keep doing this, year after year. They occasionally get one right, but even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. The numbers of hurricanes in a season might be useful for planning purposes, but they are nowhere near accurate enough to anything but lull people into a false sense of security (slow season ahead) or get people all nervous (DOOM season ahead).
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16043
12z Euro at 240hrs. The storms proximity to the east coast does raise concern for the potential US landfall, though based off the orientation of the A/B ridge the storm would begin to move northward and likely miss the east coast. And again, this is one model run, nearly two weeks out, and the storm has not even developed yet. A lot will change. For now, Bermuda, Canada and maybe NE US should be watching the models, just keeping their eyes open. But the storm is still an incredibly long ways out so we can watch the models flip and flop without much concern at the moment.

One other thing, I also find it hard to believe the storm would become so incredibly broad and yet only be a weak tropical storm...that really doesn't make sense.

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Quoting RitaEvac:


They must read the blog because there's no way that term is used anywhere.


LOL that must be it :) of course it has been said since the 1500's, too just ask Gro.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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