Leslie near hurricane strength; Son of Isaac (90L) emerges in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie is growing more organized and is approaching hurricane strength on its slow voyage northwards at 2 mph towards the island of Bermuda. Moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest continues to keep most of Leslie's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm, but satellite loops show that Leslie now has an impressive blow-up of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops near its center. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification, but the waters underneath Leslie are warm to great depth, making this less of a factor than usual. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall steadily today, reaching the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification, and potentially allow Leslie to be at Category 2 strength at its closest pass by Bermuda Saturday night and early Sunday morning, as indicated by the official NHC forecast. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 48% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 42-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Saturday morning near 2 am AST, and lasting until 8 pm AST Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, and Leslie will be capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize. NHC is predicting that hurricane-force winds will extend outwards from the center of Leslie by 35 miles on Thursday night, and I expect this will increase to at least 60 miles by early Sunday morning, when Leslie will be making its closest pass by Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. Heavy thunderstorms have built near the center of the storm, and Leslie is near hurricane strength.

Leslie's impact on Canada
Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. The timing of this trough is such that Leslie will be pulled northwards and then north-northeastwards over the weekend. There are still significant differences among the models in the timing and speed of Leslie's track over the weekend, but we can now dismiss the threat of Leslie making a direct hit on New England. The storm is likely to make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, though there are significant differences in the models' predictions of the timing of Leslie's arrival in Canada. The GFS model predicts an early Tuesday landfall in Newfoundland, but the ECMWF model is much faster and farther west, predicting a Monday afternoon landfall in Nova Scotia. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and these waves will increase in size as Leslie grows in strength this week. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Thursday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Invest 90L off the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

Son of Isaac: Invest 90L emerges in the Gulf of Mexico
During Tropical Depression Isaac's trek across the center of the U.S. during the Labor Day weekend, the storm was ripped in half. One portion of the storm moved over the Northeast U.S., bringing heavy rains there, and another portion sank southwards over Alabama. You can see this split by studying an animation of the vorticity at 850 mb (the amount of spin at low levels of the atmosphere, near 5,000 feet above sea level) from the University of Wisconsin. This remnant of Isaac, which still maintained some of Isaac's spin, brought heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches that caused flooding problems over portions of Alabama on Tuesday. The storm has now emerged over the Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Panhandle, and was designated Invest 90L this morning by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. According to NHC naming rules, "if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name". Since "the remnant" refers to the primary remnant, and 90L does not fit the definition of a "primary remnant", the storm will be given a new name should it develop into a tropical storm, according to information posted on the NHC Facebook page. Esau or Jacob--the names of the sons of the biblical Isaac--would be fitting names for 90L, but the next storm on the list of Atlantic storms is Nadine.

Long-range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows a large area of heavy rainfall along the coast due to 90L. The echoes do show some spiral banding behavior, but there is only a slight evidence of rotation to the storm. Infrared satellite loops show that the thunderstorms associated with 90L are not that vigorous and do not have particularly cold cloud tops, and the area covered by the thunderstorms is relatively small. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the northern Gulf of Mexico, but is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf have been cooled down considerably by the passage of Hurricane Isaac last week, and are 28 - 28.5°C. This is still plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will increase in organization on Thursday and Friday as it moves slowly south or south-southwest. 90L could become a tropical depression as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L on Thursday afternoon. A trough of low pressure and an associated surface cold front will move southeastwards over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and this trough should be capable of pulling 90L to the northeast to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has strengthened to 50 mph winds, and appears to have a favorable enough environment to become a hurricane later this week. Satellite loops show that this is a small tropical cyclone, far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. It's too early to tell if this system might threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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The alleged 1/2 degree over 20 years is having an efect? LOL

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Sorry I brought AGW into the discussion, but can't ignore the possible effects it may be having on the hurricane season, and that is as far as I will go.
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90L/INV/XX/XX

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Quoting pottery:
Keeper, post 948.
Lots of dry air to the East.....
some popcorn pop ups looks to run along to the north maybe they spread out overnight into the max some passing tropical showers
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NHC is being conservative with Michael because they probably want to save face haha. Just 24 hours ago they weren't giving him a chance, and nor were many others.
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So Leslie and Michael are listed at precisely the same intensity?!

Sure, they call Michael's estimate is set "PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY" and note that Leslie's "INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED."

But I have a really hard time looking at those two storms and concluding that they share peak windspeeds.
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HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

RECENT TRMM AND SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS NOT
FORMED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AND IN FACT...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED. THERE IS STILL SOME INDICATION OF
WESTERLY SHEAR AS WELL...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7/4.3.

BASED ON RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE FIXES...THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
010/2 KT. LESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHWARD CREEP FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE HURRICANE
SHOULD GAIN SOME NORTHWARD MOMENTUM BY DAY 3 ONCE A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS MODEL HAS
SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST ON THIS CYCLE AND IS THE EASTERNMOST AND
SLOWEST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. SINCE THIS
HAS NOT YET TURNED INTO A CONSISTENT TREND...THE NHC FORECAST IS
BEING KEPT CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

LESLIE IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO DRY AIR LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A CROSS SECTION BASED ON GFS MODEL DATA SHOWS AIR WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT ABUTTING AGAINST THE
CIRCULATION IN THE 250-500 MB LAYER. SINCE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT LESLIE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE DRY
AIR COULD CONTINUE TO SEEP INTO THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT THE SEA SURFACE BENEATH LESLIE IS
COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING...AND THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE AS LONG
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES SO SLOWLY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND INDICATES GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 26.2N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 26.4N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.8N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 27.1N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 27.7N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 30.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 35.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 44.0N 59.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Where on earth do you get your "information"?


Quoting KoritheMan:


I kinda think AGW will make the US hurricane season a joke. The south is supposed to get drier as the planet warms, which will lead to more years like 2010 and 2011. Recurve might become the new normal. But then, Central America and Mexico would also suffer, and I would rather the states take a hurricane than I would third world nations.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I kinda think AGW will make the US hurricane season a joke. The south is supposed to get drier as the planet warms, which will lead to more years like 2010 and 2011. Recurve might become the new normal. But then, Central America and Mexico would also suffer, and I would rather the states take a hurricane than I would third world nations.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I kinda think AGW will make the US hurricane season a joke. The south is supposed to get drier as the planet warms, which will lead to more years like 2010 and 2011. Recurve might become the new normal. But then, Central America and Mexico would also suffer, and I would rather the states take a hurricane than I would third world nations.
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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

AN EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES...AND SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 77 KT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 65 KT...
MAKING MICHAEL THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27.5-28.0 DEG C FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ASSUMING THAT MICHAEL WILL BE ABLE TO AVOID THE
UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE
LESLIE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...OR 050/6...APPARENTLY DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING MICHAEL BEHIND IN A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE 2- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME.
THERE IS QUITE A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
TRACKS...WITH THE GFS TAKING MICHAEL SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST BY DAY 5 THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...ALBEIT JUST A
TAD SLOWER. THIS IS USUALLY THE BEST STRATEGY WHEN CONFRONTED WITH
A LARGE MODEL SPREAD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 29.3N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 29.8N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 31.0N 41.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 31.5N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.7N 43.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 34.0N 44.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

AN EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES...AND SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 77 KT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 65 KT...
MAKING MICHAEL THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON.

come on...!!! really?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

AN EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES...AND SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 77 KT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 65 KT...
MAKING MICHAEL THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27.5-28.0 DEG C FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ASSUMING THAT MICHAEL WILL BE ABLE TO AVOID THE
UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE
LESLIE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...OR 050/6...APPARENTLY DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING MICHAEL BEHIND IN A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE 2- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME.
THERE IS QUITE A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
TRACKS...WITH THE GFS TAKING MICHAEL SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST BY DAY 5 THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...ALBEIT JUST A
TAD SLOWER. THIS IS USUALLY THE BEST STRATEGY WHEN CONFRONTED WITH
A LARGE MODEL SPREAD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 29.3N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 29.8N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 31.0N 41.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 31.5N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.7N 43.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 34.0N 44.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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...MICHAEL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 5
Location: 29.3N 42.2W
Moving: NE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

I don't agree with this as a 75mph storm, more like 90mph but they are the pros.
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WHAT???? MICHAEL IS JUST 75 MPH?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting wxchaser97:

Man, the whole storm is improving. This is a high end cat1 at least.

On GFS looks like Leslie absorbs Michael eventually.
haha happens to the best of them!
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NO CHANGE WITH LESLIE
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting CloudGatherer:
From UW-CIMSS:
Date : 06 SEP 2012 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 29:02:39 N Lon : 42:24:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.9mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.7


And SAB:
05/2345 UTC 29.1N 42.4W T4.5/4.5 MICHAEL -- Atlantic


When both satellite estimates converge on 77kts, there's your intensity. My guess is a formal listing at 80kts/90mph



watch this storm being major tomorrow...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes maybe 90 (no-maybe 100 mph) but ATCF says just 75... so...

Yeah but ADT and SAB/TAFB say around 90mph.
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Michael:

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Quoting Civicane49:
Michael's eye continues to improve.


Man, the whole storm is improving. This is a high end cat1 at least.
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GFS is focusing on Leslie and the CV storm Doc talks about in his blog.
Link Click Animation
But I'm not sure how these models work.
It's not showing 90L in this run.
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Keeper, post 948.
Lots of dry air to the East.....
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
So what intensity do you all think the NHC will bump Michael up to? I'm thinking he looks like a 100 mph. hurricane.
From UW-CIMSS:
Date : 06 SEP 2012 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 29:02:39 N Lon : 42:24:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.9mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.7


And SAB:
05/2345 UTC 29.1N 42.4W T4.5/4.5 MICHAEL -- Atlantic


When both satellite estimates converge on 77kts, there's your intensity. My guess is a formal listing at 80kts/90mph
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Quoting Civicane49:


90 mph.


yes maybe 90 (no-maybe 100 mph) but ATCF says just 75... so...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Civicane49:
Michael's eye continues to improve.



awww..pretty green. It wants to be an Irish storm.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
So what intensity do you all think the NHC will bump Michael up to? I'm thinking he looks like a 100 mph. hurricane.


90 mph.
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Is there any chance of the mid to upper Texas coast seeing any tropical activity later this season? We can forget about October, history is on our side for not seeing anything.

Central Texas can really use the rain!
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Quoting Civicane49:
Michael's eye continues to improve.



WOW...look at that storm...even I said why the NHC classified that worst-than-Jose looking storm
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


do ya need some rain

NO

thank you very much.....
Keep your Dreaded Rain Machine pointed somewhere else.

:):))
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Quoting Chicklit:

uh no. got it from the nhc 5-day chart
plus the shear map shows she's heading into better environment.
sorry Kori, I know you write good blogs though so taking nothing away from you


Nah, I'm just kidding.
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Quoting GetReal:






I do not like what 90L is doing late this evening... It seems to be sinking south at a much faster pace. I hope this system puts the brakes on north of 26N, because, IMO, if 90L manages to make it into the south central GOM (south of 24N) it may not get picked up by the approaching trough. 90L, or TS Nadine, would be left stalled in the southern GOM, possibly gaining strength, and awaiting the next trough to head north towards the central Gulf coast.


You're just paranoid because we just got Isaac. :P
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I do not like what 90L is doing late this evening... It seems to be sinking south at a much faster pace. I hope this system puts the brakes on north of 26N, because, IMO, if 90L manages to make it into the south central GOM (south of 24N) it may not get picked up by the approaching trough. 90L, or TS Nadine, would be left stalled in the southern GOM, possibly gaining strength, and awaiting the next trough to head north towards the central Gulf coast.
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Quoting Chicklit:

uh no. got it from the nhc 5-day chart


I meant the "strengthening could be imminent" bit. I used almost that exact phrasing.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Stole that from my blog, didn't you?

uh no. got it from the nhc 5-day chart
plus the shear map shows she's heading into better environment.
sorry Kori, I know you write good blogs though so taking nothing away from you
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Quoting Chicklit:
...but Leslie strengthening appears immanent


Stole that from my blog, didn't you?
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Quoting pottery:

Doing good, thanks!
Hot and dry down here for the past week or so.
Ground is still damp enough, but the plants are suffering from 95F days.

Often happens in late August early September..
The ITCZ takes a little rest, before kicking in again in Sept.


do ya need some rain
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...but Leslie strengthening appears immanent
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So what intensity do you all think the NHC will bump Michael up to? I'm thinking he looks like a 100 mph. hurricane.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
okay, my time's up.
on a crazy schedule.
have to keep up.
goodnight all.

I really hope Leslie doesn't get her act together and slam Bermuda.
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Michael's eye continues to improve.

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Quoting Civicane49:
90L:



always expect the unexpected
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Quoting JLPR2:


Who would have thought that Michael, at some point, would look better than Leslie?


Not me.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Who would have thought that Michael, at some point, would look better than Leslie?

I really didn't think it would happen but it did.
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13L/TC/H/M/C2
MARK
29.08N/42.43W
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Quoting JLPR2:


Who would have thought that Michael, at some point, would look better than Leslie?

not me.

But they are now facing different futures.
It would be nice if Leslie would stay weak.
and we know what's going to happen to Michael
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oh my, an anticyclone over 90L
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925. JLPR2
Quoting Civicane49:


Who would have thought that Michael, at some point, would look better than Leslie?
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Link GOM WV Loop
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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