Leslie near hurricane strength; Son of Isaac (90L) emerges in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie is growing more organized and is approaching hurricane strength on its slow voyage northwards at 2 mph towards the island of Bermuda. Moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest continues to keep most of Leslie's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm, but satellite loops show that Leslie now has an impressive blow-up of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops near its center. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification, but the waters underneath Leslie are warm to great depth, making this less of a factor than usual. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall steadily today, reaching the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification, and potentially allow Leslie to be at Category 2 strength at its closest pass by Bermuda Saturday night and early Sunday morning, as indicated by the official NHC forecast. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 48% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 42-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Saturday morning near 2 am AST, and lasting until 8 pm AST Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, and Leslie will be capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize. NHC is predicting that hurricane-force winds will extend outwards from the center of Leslie by 35 miles on Thursday night, and I expect this will increase to at least 60 miles by early Sunday morning, when Leslie will be making its closest pass by Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. Heavy thunderstorms have built near the center of the storm, and Leslie is near hurricane strength.

Leslie's impact on Canada
Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. The timing of this trough is such that Leslie will be pulled northwards and then north-northeastwards over the weekend. There are still significant differences among the models in the timing and speed of Leslie's track over the weekend, but we can now dismiss the threat of Leslie making a direct hit on New England. The storm is likely to make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, though there are significant differences in the models' predictions of the timing of Leslie's arrival in Canada. The GFS model predicts an early Tuesday landfall in Newfoundland, but the ECMWF model is much faster and farther west, predicting a Monday afternoon landfall in Nova Scotia. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and these waves will increase in size as Leslie grows in strength this week. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Thursday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Invest 90L off the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

Son of Isaac: Invest 90L emerges in the Gulf of Mexico
During Tropical Depression Isaac's trek across the center of the U.S. during the Labor Day weekend, the storm was ripped in half. One portion of the storm moved over the Northeast U.S., bringing heavy rains there, and another portion sank southwards over Alabama. You can see this split by studying an animation of the vorticity at 850 mb (the amount of spin at low levels of the atmosphere, near 5,000 feet above sea level) from the University of Wisconsin. This remnant of Isaac, which still maintained some of Isaac's spin, brought heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches that caused flooding problems over portions of Alabama on Tuesday. The storm has now emerged over the Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Panhandle, and was designated Invest 90L this morning by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. According to NHC naming rules, "if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name". Since "the remnant" refers to the primary remnant, and 90L does not fit the definition of a "primary remnant", the storm will be given a new name should it develop into a tropical storm, according to information posted on the NHC Facebook page. Esau or Jacob--the names of the sons of the biblical Isaac--would be fitting names for 90L, but the next storm on the list of Atlantic storms is Nadine.

Long-range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows a large area of heavy rainfall along the coast due to 90L. The echoes do show some spiral banding behavior, but there is only a slight evidence of rotation to the storm. Infrared satellite loops show that the thunderstorms associated with 90L are not that vigorous and do not have particularly cold cloud tops, and the area covered by the thunderstorms is relatively small. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the northern Gulf of Mexico, but is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf have been cooled down considerably by the passage of Hurricane Isaac last week, and are 28 - 28.5°C. This is still plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will increase in organization on Thursday and Friday as it moves slowly south or south-southwest. 90L could become a tropical depression as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L on Thursday afternoon. A trough of low pressure and an associated surface cold front will move southeastwards over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and this trough should be capable of pulling 90L to the northeast to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has strengthened to 50 mph winds, and appears to have a favorable enough environment to become a hurricane later this week. Satellite loops show that this is a small tropical cyclone, far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. It's too early to tell if this system might threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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1174. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
740 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WESTERN CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WESTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 830 AM EDT

* AT 735 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED 25 MILES WEST OF
MASSAPONAX...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF CULPEPER...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MASSAPONAX...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3839 7748 3816 7748 3819 7804 3834 7801
TIME...MOT...LOC 1140Z 269DEG 17KT 3826 7793

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
1173. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I wouldn't say perfect. It's tilted a bit from the southwest to northeast.


You have a point but he looks lovely in the sat imagery.... anyways Michael in rainbow ...

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6966
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I wouldn't say perfect. It's tilted a bit from the southwest to northeast.


ok, then we'll just say perfectly circular. ;)
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This on the other hand, we have Leslie who still doesn't look the best.
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1170. yqt1001
Ugh another name wasted by the NHC. Come on guys, Michael is just another Jose.

Not that we wouldve known it wouldve beaten leslie to mh status 2 days ago...
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Quoting TropicalBruce:
With Leslie and Michael displacing the A-B high, any disturbances trekking across the Atlantic in the deep tropics would have a hard time getting as far west as the eastern Caribbean before recurvature takes place. Next week might be a different story, but the Cape Verde season doesn't have much farther to go before it shuts down.

Wrong! Cape Verde season lasts till the end of September. Plenty of time that we still need to keep a lookout for storms from that region.
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1167. icmoore
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can't even believe he pulled one on us!.Impressive storm and beautiful to.To believe people called him pathetic a few days ago.


From pathetic to perfect in only a few days...a lesson to be remembered there.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4147
1166. LargoFl
CAT_3...............MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE 2012
HURRICANE SEASON. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL AT 06/0900 UTC
IS NEAR 29.6N 41.7W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 6 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 100 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 120 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 13 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W
AND 43W. THE 32N45W 30N48W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS LESS AND LESS WELL-DEFINED NOW...GIVEN ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION THAT EXISTS AROUND
HURRICANE MICHAEL. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW REACHES TO 34N42W.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
1164. LargoFl
ND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 13 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W
AND 43W. THE 32N45W 30N48W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS LESS AND LESS WELL-DEFINED NOW...GIVEN ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION THAT EXISTS AROUND
HURRICANE MICHAEL. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW REACHES TO 34N42W.

A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 29.5N88W...ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
COASTAL BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A
55 NM RADIUS OF 27.5N 89.5W...ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N30W...TO 12N40W AND 10N48W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N48W...TO 11N56W AND 11N61W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 15W AND 18W AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15.5N24W IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 15.5N32W AND 14.5N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
3.5N TO 7.5N TO THE EAST OF 24W AND FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N74W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 28N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST...THROUGH 22N79W IN
CUBA...TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 16N85W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. A SEPARATE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES IN MEXICO NEAR
23N102W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N
TO 28N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
Cannot say I'm surprised..

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Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup, became a major this morning and he is a great storm.
I can't even believe he pulled one on us!.Impressive storm and beautiful to.To believe people called him pathetic a few days ago.
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1161. LargoFl
ZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
555 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-061600 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
555 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WIND QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COOL FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES OVER THE WEEKEND.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I got back from swim practice and went to www.nhc.noaa.gov, put my cursor over michael and dropped a couple 4-letter words..

1 Major!!

Oh yeah you get up at like 4am or something like that. I was shocked when I got up to see Michael a major.
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I got back from swim practice and went to www.nhc.noaa.gov, put my cursor over michael and dropped a couple 4-letter words..

1 Major!!
Perfect eye.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Micheal is a major?!!?? Whaaaaat?.

Yup, became a major this morning and he is a great storm.
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Quoting forecaster1:


Call it what you want the energy came off of Africa


The energy from Michael has no relations with Africa. It's a surface trough that interacted with an ULL that managed to hit perfect conditions to intensify. That's at least what the NHC thinks, and I'll agree with them. Even if it is related to a tropical wave, it is still not a fully tropical development as ULL are cold core, in that case it would be the first major hurricane of not 100% tropical origins to develop since Hurricane Rita in 2005 and my point still remains - it's rare to have major hurricanes develop from anything other than tropical waves.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Micheal is a major?!!?? Whaaaaat?.
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Quoting icmoore:


LOL I don't think you will get any argument from anybody about that!

Nope, its the son/daughter of Isaac so its supposed to have a mind of its own.
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It's a good thing this isn't making landfall anywhere as those people would have problems. What a beautiful storm with the great eye and eyewall, the structure, and the awesomeness.
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All of our hurricanes (cat 2 or higher) have formed >25N, none below. Of 7 hurricanes, only one has been one in the caribbean
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1152. icmoore
Quoting wxchaser97:

Good morning, 90L might have a mind of its own.


LOL I don't think you will get any argument from anybody about that!
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4147
A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29.5N88W...ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS OF 27.5N 89.5W...ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA.

Looks like 90L wants to pull some moisture up from the Caribbean.
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Quoting icmoore:
Good morning everyone. Whats up with the 2am models of 90L it looks like he wants to go to Cuba now :) Some beautiful clouds over the Gulf this morning.

Good morning, 90L might have a mind of its own.
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MLB discussion

SUN-WED...FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MESSY IN THIS TIME FRAME. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER WARM NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS BEING MONITORED
BY NHC FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A RECON PLANE MAY FLY
INTO IT LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING CLOSELY GIVEN
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO LOCAL AREA IF IT DOES FORM INTO A TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT GET ORGANIZED THERE IS GOING TO BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PRESSING INTO FLORIDA WITH A DEEP FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT...BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN TRENDS OF LATEST MODEL RUNS DECIDED TO RAMP POPS UP SOME
IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH
NUMEROUS/LIKELY CATEGORY. HEADING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
MODELS TRYING TO PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH AND DEVELOP ONSHORE
FLOW REGIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. STAY TUNED AS
MORE DETAILS OF THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDS IN LATER MODEL RUNS.
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1148. icmoore
Good morning everyone. Whats up with the 2am models of 90L it looks like he wants to go to Cuba now :) Some beautiful clouds over the Gulf this morning.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4147
With Leslie and Michael displacing the A-B high, any disturbances trekking across the Atlantic in the deep tropics would have a hard time getting as far west as the eastern Caribbean before recurvature takes place. Next week might be a different story, but the Cape Verde season doesn't have much farther to go before it shuts down.
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90L down to 40%
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Quoting forecaster1:


Call it what you want the energy came off of Africa

It was still non-tropical, the first major to do so since 1991.
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90L down to 40%.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE CANCELLED.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Incorrect, Michael developed non-tropically.

1. A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1125 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Call it what you want the energy came off of Africa
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Conditions at 41049 as of
1050 GMT on 09/06/2012:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 40.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 50.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 25.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 8.9 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 97 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.57 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 71.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 78.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 44.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 46.6 kts
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Quoting forecaster1:


No, If you go back and look at the loop Mike popped off of a wave as it exited Africa...


Incorrect, Michael developed non-tropically.

1. A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1125 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
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Quoting forecaster1:


No, If you go back and look at the loop Mike popped off of a wave as it exited Africa...

No, ULL cutoff spawned him :)
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1137. Thrawst
Told you guys that Michael is a BIG MAN!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Worth noting that Michael is the first completely non-tropically developing major hurricane since Hurricane Claudette in 1991 (ie, not developing from a tropical wave)


No, If you go back and look at the loop Mike popped off of a wave as it exited Africa...
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Michael Michael motorcycle.....

wait....no one can tease you anymore.
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Everyone have a great Thursday.
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I think im just about out of the clear with leslie!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Worth noting that Michael is the first completely non-tropically developing major hurricane since Hurricane Claudette in 1991 (ie, not developing from a tropical wave)


I'll take your word for it.
Good catch!
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
The recent rapid intensification is clearly shown here.


And according to NHC estimates,
the storm has strengthened from 45 kt to 100 kt, 1005 mb to 965 mb in 24 hours (55 kt increase in 24 hrs) proving the RI.

Nobody thought Michael would rapidly intensify, including the NHC:
24H 06/0600Z 29.4N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

This shows how much more we have to do to understand the beauty of tropical cyclones.

By the way, rapid intensification means an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.
And people said Issac would go through RI...
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Worth noting that Michael is the first completely non-tropically developing major hurricane since Hurricane Claudette in 1991 (ie, not developing from a tropical wave)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Meanwhile back home showers and storms bumping up along the coast:

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If this were to hold true Bermuda would be spared the absolute worst from Leslie:

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NHC thought Mike would have a peak of 40mph...
Look how great that forecast panned out :P
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I didnt't expect to wake up and see Michael as a MH.
The other day it was just a small thunderstorm that was TD13.
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Good Morning everyone, I see Leslie is the same but Michael is now a cat3. That happened very fast, throws off my prediction. Now the count is 13/7/1.
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Michael is my kind of storm. Beautiful structure, with a well developed eye and out in the middle of nowhere!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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