Leslie near hurricane strength; Son of Isaac (90L) emerges in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie is growing more organized and is approaching hurricane strength on its slow voyage northwards at 2 mph towards the island of Bermuda. Moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest continues to keep most of Leslie's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm, but satellite loops show that Leslie now has an impressive blow-up of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops near its center. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification, but the waters underneath Leslie are warm to great depth, making this less of a factor than usual. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall steadily today, reaching the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification, and potentially allow Leslie to be at Category 2 strength at its closest pass by Bermuda Saturday night and early Sunday morning, as indicated by the official NHC forecast. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 48% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 42-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Saturday morning near 2 am AST, and lasting until 8 pm AST Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, and Leslie will be capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize. NHC is predicting that hurricane-force winds will extend outwards from the center of Leslie by 35 miles on Thursday night, and I expect this will increase to at least 60 miles by early Sunday morning, when Leslie will be making its closest pass by Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. Heavy thunderstorms have built near the center of the storm, and Leslie is near hurricane strength.

Leslie's impact on Canada
Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. The timing of this trough is such that Leslie will be pulled northwards and then north-northeastwards over the weekend. There are still significant differences among the models in the timing and speed of Leslie's track over the weekend, but we can now dismiss the threat of Leslie making a direct hit on New England. The storm is likely to make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, though there are significant differences in the models' predictions of the timing of Leslie's arrival in Canada. The GFS model predicts an early Tuesday landfall in Newfoundland, but the ECMWF model is much faster and farther west, predicting a Monday afternoon landfall in Nova Scotia. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and these waves will increase in size as Leslie grows in strength this week. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Thursday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Invest 90L off the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

Son of Isaac: Invest 90L emerges in the Gulf of Mexico
During Tropical Depression Isaac's trek across the center of the U.S. during the Labor Day weekend, the storm was ripped in half. One portion of the storm moved over the Northeast U.S., bringing heavy rains there, and another portion sank southwards over Alabama. You can see this split by studying an animation of the vorticity at 850 mb (the amount of spin at low levels of the atmosphere, near 5,000 feet above sea level) from the University of Wisconsin. This remnant of Isaac, which still maintained some of Isaac's spin, brought heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches that caused flooding problems over portions of Alabama on Tuesday. The storm has now emerged over the Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Panhandle, and was designated Invest 90L this morning by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. According to NHC naming rules, "if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name". Since "the remnant" refers to the primary remnant, and 90L does not fit the definition of a "primary remnant", the storm will be given a new name should it develop into a tropical storm, according to information posted on the NHC Facebook page. Esau or Jacob--the names of the sons of the biblical Isaac--would be fitting names for 90L, but the next storm on the list of Atlantic storms is Nadine.

Long-range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows a large area of heavy rainfall along the coast due to 90L. The echoes do show some spiral banding behavior, but there is only a slight evidence of rotation to the storm. Infrared satellite loops show that the thunderstorms associated with 90L are not that vigorous and do not have particularly cold cloud tops, and the area covered by the thunderstorms is relatively small. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the northern Gulf of Mexico, but is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf have been cooled down considerably by the passage of Hurricane Isaac last week, and are 28 - 28.5°C. This is still plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will increase in organization on Thursday and Friday as it moves slowly south or south-southwest. 90L could become a tropical depression as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L on Thursday afternoon. A trough of low pressure and an associated surface cold front will move southeastwards over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and this trough should be capable of pulling 90L to the northeast to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has strengthened to 50 mph winds, and appears to have a favorable enough environment to become a hurricane later this week. Satellite loops show that this is a small tropical cyclone, far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. It's too early to tell if this system might threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormHype:


Well you have it from your own quote above that there's a 60% chance it's not. Even a TD isn't a 'storm' for that matter. I will guess it will amount to about 25% of what Debby was. Mainly because it will fly through and not stall out like Debby once the trough picks it up.
well we have 4 days in the gulf to see huh..4 whole days in mid 80's water and low shear...I for one..hope your right, but i dont think so, way too long in the gulf
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33301
Quoting AegirsGal:
Go find something else to do besides come on the blog and complain about 'boring weather.' There is a Hurricane and a Tropical Storm in the Atlantic, AND an area of concern in the GOM. I suppose the current tropical weather wouldn't be boring for you if they were proverbially knocking on your door, eh? Go tell it on a mountain and not here..


Why don't you just ignore me :-) I say what I want as long as I stay respectful with everyone here, which is actually what I do. I don't like aggressive persons.
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Quoting Grothar:



I know, this is what gets me about the NHC. They move it up to 40% when I've only posted 4 Blob alerts. I told them to wait until the 5th alert.


LOL!!! I hear you. :P
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Quoting LargoFl:
not to worry storm hype said its not going to be a storm


Well you have it from your own quote above that there's a 60% chance it's not. Even a TD isn't a 'storm' for that matter. I will guess it will amount to about 25% of what Debby was. Mainly because it will fly through and not stall out like Debby once the trough picks it up.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed up to 40%



I know, this is what gets me about the NHC. They move it up to 40% when I've only posted 4 Blob alerts. I told them to wait until the 5th alert.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33301
218. 7544
looks like its going to get get further south imo today
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33301
2 special NHC products re strengthening TS Michael and Hurricane Leslie - things are heating up in the tropics!
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215. 7544
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed up to 40%


yeap and they have the center in the water now lets see what happens
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Quoting LargoFl:
not to worry storm hype said its not going to be a storm


I guess it won't develop then. :)
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1243 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BURAS...OR 16 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PORT SULPHUR...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33301
Quoting WxLogic:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA... AND ON TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1125
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
not to worry storm hype said its not going to be a storm
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33301
Quoting 7544:
40%


Indeed up to 40%
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA... AND ON TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1125
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33301
208. 7544
40% now just 25 miles south of penscola fl hmmm
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Quoting CaribBoy:
I guess we have to wait until all these wave STOP developing to FINALLY SEE A BIT OF RAIN!!!!!!!!!!
Go find something else to do besides come on the blog and complain about 'boring weather.' There is a Hurricane and a Tropical Storm in the Atlantic, AND an area of concern in the GOM. I suppose the current tropical weather wouldn't be boring for you if they were proverbially knocking on your door, eh? Go tell it on a mountain and not here..
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206. 7544
90L is now in the open waters of the gulf ?
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...LESLIE STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
1:45 PM AST Wed Sep 5
Location: 28.8°N 62.5°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
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Quoting stormchaser19:
156 Hr


Are the two lows on this map in the central Atlantic possibly Oscar & Patty?
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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
130 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MICHAEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A EYE FEATURE INDICATED IN
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A FORMATIVE EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED
ON THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
55 KT AND MICHAEL IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12
HOURS. THE INCREASED INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY IS THE BASIS
FOR THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY.

MICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. CONSEQUENTLY...THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1730Z 28.5N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 29.0N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 29.7N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 30.3N 42.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 31.0N 42.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 32.1N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 33.3N 45.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 34.7N 46.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Quoting RitaEvac:


I see you survived Isaac


Yes but I have a tree on my house.........just got power back on yesterday.
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Quoting 69Viking:


Did you not read what the Doc wrote, he spelled out in pretty simple terms as to why!


I read doc's blog and loaded it into my arsenal of info! I was here for Katrina and remember the bloggers jumping on the danger bandwagon well before doc, as wonderful as he is! I like to get everyone's opinion.

Thanks for all the responses.
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sorry i missed this one..man those people not getting a break in this area..............BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1150 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL AND LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1145 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES NORTH
OF BOOTHVILLE...OR 19 MILES EAST OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING SOUTH AT
25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BOOTHVILLE AND BURAS BY 1220 PM CDT...
VENICE BY 1225 PM CDT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33301
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Leslie is HUGE


$2,500 a piece
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Quoting Msdrown:
cant find the index but i think we are ok rain wise, some parts of florida are soaking wet, lakes are pretty full by me but ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33301
Quoting 94vortech:
Here are some pictures from this morning in Ocean Springs, MS after about 7" of rain overnight.

This is the road that runs next to the local airport.
Uploaded from the Photobucket iPhone App

The runway was under water.
Uploaded from the Photobucket iPhone App

My neighborhood.
Uploaded from the Photobucket iPhone App

Jerry


Any pictures of all the nutria washing up over there?
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Leslie is HUGE
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195. 7544
you think its really going to just hang around the gulf that long before it gets scooped out
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Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:


New Orleans is not getting rain right now. It is, however raining hard over Plaquemines parish in Braithwaite, LA where everyone lost EVERYTHING during Hurricane Isaac. Those poor people. I live in Slidell, LA by the way (30 miles across the lake from New Orleans) but work in New Orleans and I can tell you it's not raining here. Cloudy and breezy though............


I see you survived Isaac
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Quoting Hurricanes4life:


Later would allow for Leslie to track further west, earlier would kick it out to the east. However the possibility of a upper level low pulling leslie towards Atlantic Canada from a NNE to NNW direction is possible too. Right now it looks like south western/central NL is going to get it the worst. Things can still change.


Thanks. Still seems to be many variables in play huh?
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GFS at 192 hours..you decide
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33301
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I guess we have to wait until all these wave STOP developing to FINALLY SEE A BIT OF RAIN!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting LargoFl:
new GFS at 123 hours..its a tampa bay storm again


'Storm' is pushing it ... more like shower.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
Boring weather continues... :(
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The 12Z GFS sees another fish forming in the MDR... I'm pretty sure that scenario will play out, and leave the islands dry as deserts.
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Michael:



Leslie:



90L:

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Awesome.
Looks like both Leslie and Michael have acquired an eye. By the way good afternoon everyone.
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So far today:

Costa Rica (7.4M) 05 Sep 14:42UTC
Philippines (5.6M) 03 Sep 19:44UTC
Indonesia (6.4M) 03 Sep 18:23UTC
Iran (4.6M) 03 Sep 03:03UTC
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Here are some pictures from this morning in Ocean Springs, MS after about 7" of rain overnight.

This is the road that runs next to the local airport.
Uploaded from the Photobucket iPhone App

The runway was under water.
Uploaded from the Photobucket iPhone App

My neighborhood.
Uploaded from the Photobucket iPhone App

Jerry
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Quoting GetReal:



Partly cloudy skies here, the rain and dark skies are to the SE of NOLA over the coastal areas...


New Orleans is not getting rain right now. It is, however raining hard over Plaquemines parish in Braithwaite, LA where everyone lost EVERYTHING during Hurricane Isaac. Those poor people. I live in Slidell, LA by the way (30 miles across the lake from New Orleans) but work in New Orleans and I can tell you it's not raining here. Cloudy and breezy though............
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Awesome.


What a beaut!
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Quoting sar2401:


You guys in Texas are nothing but trouble. :)

With a capital "T"! :)
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Quoting Msdrown:


Yea, I realize there is all kinds of activity globally but what I'm curious about is the map you showed has many in a general area. Is that abnormal, are these just tremors or new quakes all together, and were they triggored by the intial CR quake? It just doesn't seem like you hear about that much activity in that area.

Sorry, I'm not that knowledgeable but you can usually see clusters of quakes around the "Ring of Fire" which I understand to be the coasts of the Pacific (both Asia and Americas). If you look at the map of the 30 day Data Feed you can see what I'm talking about.
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Quoting CallInBatonRouge:
How certain are we that Isaac spawn will reverse direction mid-gulf and return to Florida? Have the steering currents changed that much since last week?


Did you not read what the Doc wrote, he spelled out in pretty simple terms as to why! There's a big cold front coming across the country at the end of this week into the weekend, big cool down for a lot of people! This is what will take whatever is in the Gulf back to the NE and over Florida again but this time it should send it out to Sea pretty quickly.
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Quoting LargoFl:
new GFS at 123 hours..its a tampa bay storm again
Largo, did you get dried out yet from it's last visit.

What is Fla's total rainfall for the year, are you guys ahead?
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GFS at 168 hours, son of isaac vacations in sunny Miami?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33301

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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