Leslie near hurricane strength; Son of Isaac (90L) emerges in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie is growing more organized and is approaching hurricane strength on its slow voyage northwards at 2 mph towards the island of Bermuda. Moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest continues to keep most of Leslie's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm, but satellite loops show that Leslie now has an impressive blow-up of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops near its center. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification, but the waters underneath Leslie are warm to great depth, making this less of a factor than usual. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall steadily today, reaching the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification, and potentially allow Leslie to be at Category 2 strength at its closest pass by Bermuda Saturday night and early Sunday morning, as indicated by the official NHC forecast. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 48% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 42-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Saturday morning near 2 am AST, and lasting until 8 pm AST Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, and Leslie will be capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize. NHC is predicting that hurricane-force winds will extend outwards from the center of Leslie by 35 miles on Thursday night, and I expect this will increase to at least 60 miles by early Sunday morning, when Leslie will be making its closest pass by Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. Heavy thunderstorms have built near the center of the storm, and Leslie is near hurricane strength.

Leslie's impact on Canada
Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. The timing of this trough is such that Leslie will be pulled northwards and then north-northeastwards over the weekend. There are still significant differences among the models in the timing and speed of Leslie's track over the weekend, but we can now dismiss the threat of Leslie making a direct hit on New England. The storm is likely to make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, though there are significant differences in the models' predictions of the timing of Leslie's arrival in Canada. The GFS model predicts an early Tuesday landfall in Newfoundland, but the ECMWF model is much faster and farther west, predicting a Monday afternoon landfall in Nova Scotia. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and these waves will increase in size as Leslie grows in strength this week. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Thursday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Invest 90L off the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

Son of Isaac: Invest 90L emerges in the Gulf of Mexico
During Tropical Depression Isaac's trek across the center of the U.S. during the Labor Day weekend, the storm was ripped in half. One portion of the storm moved over the Northeast U.S., bringing heavy rains there, and another portion sank southwards over Alabama. You can see this split by studying an animation of the vorticity at 850 mb (the amount of spin at low levels of the atmosphere, near 5,000 feet above sea level) from the University of Wisconsin. This remnant of Isaac, which still maintained some of Isaac's spin, brought heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches that caused flooding problems over portions of Alabama on Tuesday. The storm has now emerged over the Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Panhandle, and was designated Invest 90L this morning by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. According to NHC naming rules, "if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name". Since "the remnant" refers to the primary remnant, and 90L does not fit the definition of a "primary remnant", the storm will be given a new name should it develop into a tropical storm, according to information posted on the NHC Facebook page. Esau or Jacob--the names of the sons of the biblical Isaac--would be fitting names for 90L, but the next storm on the list of Atlantic storms is Nadine.

Long-range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows a large area of heavy rainfall along the coast due to 90L. The echoes do show some spiral banding behavior, but there is only a slight evidence of rotation to the storm. Infrared satellite loops show that the thunderstorms associated with 90L are not that vigorous and do not have particularly cold cloud tops, and the area covered by the thunderstorms is relatively small. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the northern Gulf of Mexico, but is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf have been cooled down considerably by the passage of Hurricane Isaac last week, and are 28 - 28.5°C. This is still plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will increase in organization on Thursday and Friday as it moves slowly south or south-southwest. 90L could become a tropical depression as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L on Thursday afternoon. A trough of low pressure and an associated surface cold front will move southeastwards over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and this trough should be capable of pulling 90L to the northeast to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has strengthened to 50 mph winds, and appears to have a favorable enough environment to become a hurricane later this week. Satellite loops show that this is a small tropical cyclone, far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. It's too early to tell if this system might threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting icmoore:


Glad you got through to some family sounds like they're okay now keep us up to date when you hear more. Very happy for you all.


Thanks...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quite incredible how much the record low Arctic ocean ice cover of 2007 is going to be beaten by this year. And there's still about two weeks of melting to go. Can't be long before it disappears completely in summer.

Odd that the northwest passage is still not open though, as it's been navigable for the past few years at the height of the melt. There's just a few miles of ice keeping it closed, so it could yet open up.

Click on the graph/map to enlarge:



Link
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Quoting sar2401:


LOL. With all the loops that 90L is forecast to take, maybe knitting will look easier. I'm really serious about this low/blob though. I can't find any forcing mechanism that should have sheared it in two, except the jetstream. That part makes some sense. Even the other half coming down here and picking up a Gulf mositure fetch might make sense. But doing the same thing...in Canada? That makes no sense, unless it spent enough time over the Great Lakes that maybe that was the moisture source. We almost never get overnight convection here unless it's associated with a tropical storm. By shortly after nightfall, the storms fall asleep. The blob not only didn't fall asleep, it actually expanded and intensified after midnight. And why the heck didn't Isaac do all this on his regular run through town? I took a few meteorology courses in college, have taken all the Skywarn classes, and have been tracking storms for almost 50 years. This has been a strange year so far and Isaac is at the top of the weirdness list....so far. :)


It all makes sense now! Isaac has been trying to make a _cable knit sweater_!

No, really, it has been super weird. Weird everywhere, honestly. I've been wondering how much this year will stand out later as the year we really started being bitten by so much loss of arctic ice etc. Everything seems like its being effected by factors that locally haven't generally been common or major.

I can see how some overall synoptic pattern -- which has been, um, interesting this year, I'm quite serious that I can't recall ever having so much monsoonal moisture make it all the way up here -- could have led to this steering for Isaac's messes, but I have no real idea where that northern blob pulled so much moisture and energy so _consistently_.

Interesting, all of it. Fingers crossed for no more damage.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I called them. I was getting worried because it was the 10th call and no one there picked up... Good thing my sister has a cellphone and she told me they all are out of power. A nearby hospital collapsed thanks to the lord people evacuated it on time. Many bridges are collapsed, many roads are severely cracked and mudslides washed them out in some spots... they can't do anything now but Help is on the way. Just two people in the area suffered injuries from things collapsing as they rushed out of their houses she told me but they are all fine. Thanks to God no one died. thanks for asking...


Glad you got through to some family sounds like they're okay now keep us up to date when you hear more. Very happy for you all.
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Leslie needs to track east of Bermuda so the island can escape the worst quad.
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S FL!!! GFS!
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Quoting dabirds:
Glad you got something today & out of Issac ILwthr, know you've been as dry as anyone in IL.

European, assumed when you said Nadine was old you had a Chuck link there - I'll check yours out later. Had the pleasure of seeing the father of R & R at his monthly show @ Blueberry Hill last Nov. Hope I'm that active at his age. Anyone who will be in StL on a mid month Wed should check on tix and catch him while you can!



I looked it up again, this is Nadine by The Blues Band at Rockpalast 1980 (getting a bit older myself).

Link

And this is Chuck
Link
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I have been lurking for a few years. I pay much more attention to Hurricanes since Halifax, Nova Scotia was hit by Hurricane Juan a few years back. We had very little notice in the media. If I remember correctly, we started hearing about it 11am, about twelve hours before it hit. Weather Underground has been a great source for info on tropical storms potentially affecting our area.

I didn't see this posted yet. It makes it clear how uncertain longer range hurrican prediction can be with a slow moving storm like Leslie.

WOCN31 CWHX 051745
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3:10 PM ADT Wednesday
5 September 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Atlantic provinces.

For hurricane Leslie.

The next statement will be issued at 9:00 AM ADT Thursday.

General discussion regarding recently-upgraded hurricane Leslie
And possible influence in Eastern Canada.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is monitoring the development of
hurricane Leslie. The storm is expected to move very slowly and
intensify gradually over the next 3 days. Computer models are
predicting Leslie to only travel 250 kilometres over the next 2 days
which is basically a person's average speed of walking. With such a
slow speed of travel and the fact that the storm is still in its
organizing stage, there is much (more than usual) uncertainty in the
predicted path and intensity.

Computer models indicate that Leslie should eventually push through
the large 'Bermuda high' and accelerate toward Eastern Canada with a
range of track scenarios spanning Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
The middle of these track forecasts crosses through Newfoundland -
but even that 'average' will likely shift several times with each new
run of simulations. If Leslie makes it to Eastern Canada, it would
not likely do so until early next week. There are other factors such
as 'cold-water upwelling' and 'high pressure building' resulting from
the hurricane itself that the computer models can sometimes fail to
predict. Thus, the range of scenarios may be even broader than those
models indicate now.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will continue issuing these general
information statements on Thursday with more detailed track
information forecasts likely beginning on Friday.

Visit WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (all in lower
case) for the latest hurricane track map.

END/FOGARTY
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


I can relate to your feelings, I often think the same thing during months long stretches of sunny weather and highs in the 80s. I like more exciting (but not destructive) weather, and what can I say-I like the rain.

It would probably be helpful for you to share this particular thought in only one comment periodically (per day, every few days, etc.) and share your thoughts on existing weather events going on elsewhere too. What do you think of Leslie's projected path toward Bermuda?


Thanks for your kindness, I also like the rain but I definitely don't want a dangerous storm here and elsewhere :-) Regarding Leslie's track, hopefully it won't be much than a category 1 near Bermuda. Every years they seem to be threatened.
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70% for Monday Night for me!!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Getting close to hurricane status. NHC could very well swing to it being Hurricane Michael at 5pm if more data comes in.


As long as he stays out in the middle of nowhere, I hope he becomes our first major, to satisfy the thirst of some of those here. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15190
Not good for S FL!!
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Well, wasn't there some FL doomcasters from the start proclaiming Isaac a FL storm or wishcasting it there? Their voodoo may have worked afterall! Or they were right after all?! Sort of..in a roundabout way? LOL

Love the sat that shows both Leslie and Michael right now, looking nice
..lol its not voodoo..its the Mayan doom
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting susieq110:
Sorry, This should do it... Tropical Blog Post(90L 12z) Link


Nice blog, although a few of the graphics show up as rex "X"'s for me. It's hard to believe it was only seven days ago we were all focused on Isaac. Now we've got three, and, soon, four to track. Pretty good for a slow season. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15190
Quoting Thing342:
18z best track for MICHAEL:
AL, 13, 2012090518, , BEST, 0, 286N, 429W, 60, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 10, 10, 0, 0, 1016, 140, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, M,


Getting close to hurricane status. NHC could very well swing to it being Hurricane Michael at 5pm if more data comes in.
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Quoting VR46L:


I consider a tropical storm, a tropical storm when its pressure is lower than 1010mb .. yes a rain and thunder event at 1010mb , but its doubtful to be even a tropical depression at 1010 mb. And calling it a storm is dangerous, as people will think all TS are that criteria and then take risks when facing a real storm overhype is just as dangerous as underhype... Just my opinion .


Eh, people will think whatever they think. My preference would be that they look at the potential problems from any given system that looks like it could be sorta nasty, not just base their predictions on whether it's a "tropical storm" or a "tropical depression" or a "hurricane."

Hype -- under or over -- IMO comes from having poor information in general. You're never going to capture all of the information people need to assess risks in a single label.
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Quoting VR46L:


I consider a tropical storm, a tropical storm when its pressure is lower than 1010mb .. yes a rain and thunder event at 1010mb , but its doubtful to be even a tropical depression at 1010 mb. And calling it a storm is dangerous, as people will think all TS are that criteria and then take risks when facing a real storm overhype is just as dangerous as underhype... Just my opinion .
thanks for answering, my guess is,many have differing views on what exactly IS..a tropical storm..the word and meaning of tropical needs to changed maybe...only means its in the tropics, thus has alot of moisture etc..but somehow..the NHC saying..its a low end tropical storm..or whatever..somehow does NOT reach the peoples minds...somehow, someway..they need to come up with a different naming system..something that conveys the REAL threat a storm has...im at a loss to really explain what i mean but..anyways..thanks for replying
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
trHUrr...Did you hear from your family? Hope all is ok..


I called them. I was getting worried because it was the 10th call and no one there picked up... Good thing my sister has a cellphone and she told me they all are out of power. A nearby hospital collapsed thanks to the lord people evacuated it on time. Many bridges are collapsed, many roads are severely cracked and mudslides washed them out in some spots... they can't do anything now but Help is on the way. Just two people in the area suffered injuries from things collapsing as they rushed out of their houses she told me but they are all fine. Thanks to God no one died. thanks for asking...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Why does the navy site have 60knts for Leslie.
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Glad you got something today & out of Issac ILwthr, know you've been as dry as anyone in IL.

European, assumed when you said Nadine was old you had a Chuck link there - I'll check yours out later. Had the pleasure of seeing the father of R & R at his monthly show @ Blueberry Hill last Nov. Hope I'm that active at his age. Anyone who will be in StL on a mid month Wed should check on tix and catch him while you can!
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18z best track for MICHAEL:
AL, 13, 2012090518, , BEST, 0, 286N, 429W, 60, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 10, 10, 0, 0, 1016, 140, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, M,
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Ha! Yeah, seriously, the entire experience of Isaac has been one weird thing after another. I'm not sure how his halves have held together and held so much capacity for rain. I have a feeling he's going to be a subject of quite a bit of deeper digging later on, because he has been one big ball of odd from start to finish.

As for knitting, my partner knits, and sometimes it really confuses me, too. "You make a loop through that loop, and then you loop through the loop you made? And that does what, now?"

Think I'll stick to sipping beer and staring thoughtfully at my dog. It's not a bad hobby, really. :)


LOL. With all the loops that 90L is forecast to take, maybe knitting will look easier. I'm really serious about this low/blob though. I can't find any forcing mechanism that should have sheared it in two, except the jetstream. That part makes some sense. Even the other half coming down here and picking up a Gulf mositure fetch might make sense. But doing the same thing...in Canada? That makes no sense, unless it spent enough time over the Great Lakes that maybe that was the moisture source. We almost never get overnight convection here unless it's associated with a tropical storm. By shortly after nightfall, the storms fall asleep. The blob not only didn't fall asleep, it actually expanded and intensified after midnight. And why the heck didn't Isaac do all this on his regular run through town? I took a few meteorology courses in college, have taken all the Skywarn classes, and have been tracking storms for almost 50 years. This has been a strange year so far and Isaac is at the top of the weirdness list....so far. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15190
I can't imagine 6" of rain in a day here, much less the 20" that dumped on parts of FL with the last blob. We'd be flash flooding like crazy at the 6". That's greater than our annual average here.


I made that really unclear. 20" is greater than our annual average here, not 6". I believe we usually get ~14" annual, though I'd have to look up the exact.
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300. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
what exactly do you..consider a storm? to me if the storm is tropical in nature..and dumps 4-8 inches of rain, flooding streets etc..with rain coming straight down, not a breath of wind..to me..thats a storm..flooding, water coming into your garage..thats a storm..now some, maybe most..watch for winds above 45 mph, regardless of its rainfall totals to consider it a storm..nhc also follows this logic...hopefully, with the damage they are seeing in southeastern florida and thru NOLA and up the midwest and east coast....this policy of only wind determining WHAT a tropical storm consists of...will change ..i hope so...isaac taught everyone a lesson this season..no matter what the wind is..any tropical system in nature..can do extensive damage to homes and property and even lives..how many died in NOLA/..6? and the talk was..its only a cat-1 and before that..it was only a tropical storm...im not a met..im just a guy who has lived quite a long time, been thru 4 feet snow storms, been thru tropical events etc..my memories tell me...any storm...is dangerous, regardless of the winds.


I consider a tropical storm, a tropical storm when its pressure is lower than 1010mb .. yes a rain and thunder event at 1010mb , but its doubtful to be even a tropical depression at 1010 mb. And calling it a storm is dangerous, as people will think all TS are that criteria and then take risks when facing a real storm overhype is just as dangerous as underhype... Just my opinion .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
Quoting sar2401:


Seems like most of the models want to take her far enough southwest into the Gulf, do a loop-de-loop, and then back over FL, as 90L gets picked up by the trough that's supposed to headed our way by Saturday. It seems like a reasonable forecast but, then again, nothing with Isaac/Whatever It Becomes, has been reasonable yet. :)


Well, wasn't there some FL doomcasters from the start proclaiming Isaac a FL storm or wishcasting it there? Their voodoo may have worked afterall! Or they were right after all?! Sort of..in a roundabout way? LOL

Love the sat that shows both Leslie and Michael right now, looking nice
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Quoting LargoFl:
what exactly do you..consider a storm? to me if the storm is tropical in nature..and dumps 4-8 inches of rain, flooding streets etc..with rain coming straight down, not a breath of wind..to me..thats a storm..flooding, water coming into your garage..thats a storm..now some, maybe most..watch for winds above 45 mph, regardless of its rainfall totals to consider it a storm..nhc also follows this logic...hopefully, with the damage they are seeing in southeastern florida and thru NOLA and up the midwest and east coast....this policy of only wind determining WHAT a tropical storm consists of...will change ..i hope so...isaac taught everyone a lesson this season..no matter what the wind is..ant tropiucal system in nature..can do extensive damage to homes and property and even lives..how many died in NOLA/..6? and the talk was..its only a cat-1 and before that..it was only a tropical storm...im not a met..im just a guy who has lived quite a long time, been thru 4 feet snow storms, been thru tropical events etc..my memories tell me...any storm...is dangerous, regardless of the winds.


Yep. Frankly, where I live, a "storm" can mean "it rained for a few hours." A "serious storm" means it was windy and there are a bunch of small branches here and there, or an occasional big branch that takes out somebody's car. Oh, california.

We've gotten a lot of monsoonal stuff this year -- unusual in norcal to have this much, and the remnants of Ileana are overhead today -- and it has had some decent lightning with it. You'd think the world was ending. :D

I can't imagine 6" of rain in a day here, much less the 20" that dumped on parts of FL with the last blob. We'd be flash flooding like crazy at the 6". That's greater than our annual average here.

I can laugh about what californians call a "storm," I have lived in places with real weather and I laugh a lot here, but I think that amount of water coming out of the sky qualifies as "storm" by pretty much any definition.

What's funny is that it's the folks mocking others as "hyping" who seem to think that only some gigantomegalowpressureOMGcyclone is noteworthy. Depending on local conditions, all sorts of mess can come out of stuff that doesn't have incredible wind speeds. Sometimes, it's just inconvenient, but it can also be major property damage or sometimes loss of life, as we sadly saw last week.

And the whole development of Isaac and his children has been really interesting, regardless. Hopefully this next round won't involve more than inconvenience to anybody.
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Sorry, This should do it... Tropical Blog Post(90L 12z) Link
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Quoting sar2401:


Seems like most of the models want to take her far enough southwest into the Gulf, do a loop-de-loop, and then back over FL, as 90L gets picked up by the trough that's supposed to headed our way by Saturday. It seems like a reasonable forecast but, then again, nothing with Isaac/Whatever It Becomes, has been reasonable yet. :)
its funny..about 190 hours from now..GFS has it in miami lol..then poof..it doesnt show it anymore..we'll see..im hoping it dies a quiet death in the gulf, florida doesnt need it.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting European58:


Well, I really ment this picture. One way or another, I think she'd like to follow all the lines :)
yesd i knew what you meant..well so far..the models think it will go this route..but..3-4 days from now..that could change, maybe even by tomorrow night..so stay tuned and listen to you official local warnings ok..stay safe out there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Here's my Tropical Blog Post (90L 12z) Link
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As of 18Z:

Remains stacked with 500MB VORT increasing some:

850MB:


700MB:


500MB:


Will it develop into a TD... we shall see soon.
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Quoting European58:


Well, I really ment this picture. One way or another, I think she'd like to follow all the lines :)


Seems like most of the models want to take her far enough southwest into the Gulf, do a loop-de-loop, and then back over FL, as 90L gets picked up by the trough that's supposed to headed our way by Saturday. It seems like a reasonable forecast but, then again, nothing with Isaac/Whatever It Becomes, has been reasonable yet. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15190
Quoting dabirds:
Correction to earlier post, there was not a tremor 50 SE of StL, it was just a coal mine blast! Thought that was a weird spot for one, 150 mi S or SE would be more likely. Peabody has a big new power plant / mine in Sparta where they had it centered, so makes a lot more sense.

It's trying to get to you ILwthr, but looking a lot less healthy, that bad shield of yours may be knocking down another one. Did get a little over an inch from this morning's line when checked my unofficial guage, lots of little branches in yard as well when went home for lunch.


Dumped just shy of .2 of an inch, I just don't see anything significant developing the rest of the day....its still in the low 70's here. No instability at all presently.

Good news is I dumped 2.4" from Issac, but the strange thing is everyone else around me had 5 inches, except about 20 square mile area in which I live. It would have been nice to get it. 5 inches did nothing to area rivers, pretty amazing stuff. The ground she soaked it up well.
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what exactly do you..consider a storm? to me if the storm is tropical in nature..and dumps 4-8 inches of rain, flooding streets etc..with rain coming straight down, not a breath of wind..to me..thats a storm..flooding, water coming into your garage..thats a storm..now some, maybe most..watch for winds above 45 mph, regardless of its rainfall totals to consider it a storm..nhc also follows this logic...hopefully, with the damage they are seeing in southeastern florida and thru NOLA and up the midwest and east coast....this policy of only wind determining WHAT a tropical storm consists of...will change ..i hope so...isaac taught everyone a lesson this season..no matter what the wind is..any tropical system in nature..can do extensive damage to homes and property and even lives..how many died in NOLA/..6? and the talk was..its only a cat-1 and before that..it was only a tropical storm...im not a met..im just a guy who has lived quite a long time, been thru 4 feet snow storms, been thru tropical events etc..my memories tell me...any storm...is dangerous, regardless of the winds.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting gulfbeachgal:


Thanks for the link! The sky was really lit up last night by all the lightning as the blob moved out into the GOM. I unpluged all electronics, it was popping so close.


Lots of convection seems to have been a hallmark of this blob ©. We had lightning strikes so close that every GFI circuit in the place popped. It sounded like an artillery barrage Monday night up here in central AL. It just seems like all the convection and heavy rain we've already had over land should make it more difficult for 90L to intensify, but I'm probably wrong. :)
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Well, I really ment this picture. One way or another, I think she'd like to follow all the lines :)
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Quoting GetReal:
Very good view of the LLC of 90L south of Pensacola!

Link


Where do you place the LLC in that loop? I may be crazy, but it appears to be just off the coast, south of Pensacola. This is what seems to be spinning off the reverse rain bands into S. GA and the Panhandle.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15190
Quoting GetReal:
Very good view of the LLC of 90L south of Pensacola!

Link


Thanks for the link! The sky was really lit up last night by all the lightning as the blob moved out into the GOM. I unpluged all electronics, it was popping so close.
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18z Best Track for Leslie.

AL, 12, 2012090518, , BEST, 0, 258N, 627W, 65, 987, HU
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Quoting European58:


Is this the route Nadine is goin' to take?
no one knows yet, hurricane hunters going into it tomorrow if it holds together, then the models will have the new info to remap their tracks.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Special advisories issued for both storms....I just found out..
trHUrr...Did you hear from your family? Hope all is ok..
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Quoting sar2401:


That's what I don't get. Isaac/ex-Isaac remnant low was sitting up in Indiana Sunday, not really doing much of anything, when it gets torn in two one half racing into Canada and giving them heavy rain, while other half headed south and gave us heavy rain. Most places in MS, AL, and the Panhandle had between 4 and 6 inches of rain, which is more than many of us got from the real Isaac. Now it's back out in te Gulf, threatening to do...well, something...depending on who's forecast your read. Where did all this energy come from? Try as I might, I can't find a source. How does a nothing low well inland get back into the Gulf after all that rain when it spent no further time over water?

Maybe I should take up another hobby, like knitting or something. :)


Ha! Yeah, seriously, the entire experience of Isaac has been one weird thing after another. I'm not sure how his halves have held together and held so much capacity for rain. I have a feeling he's going to be a subject of quite a bit of deeper digging later on, because he has been one big ball of odd from start to finish.

As for knitting, my partner knits, and sometimes it really confuses me, too. "You make a loop through that loop, and then you loop through the loop you made? And that does what, now?"

Think I'll stick to sipping beer and staring thoughtfully at my dog. It's not a bad hobby, really. :)
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Quoting aspectre:
201 CallInBatonRouge: I was here for Katrina, and remember the bloggers jumping on the danger bandwagon well before doc...

That ain't sayin' much. There's folks here who get all ChickenLittle cuz the SCR(ofula)model shows a 999millibar low at 996hours.
"Oh nooooes. The chocolate fell into the peanut butter. DOOOOM!!!!!!!!!!! "


Clearly, you and your little flying monkeys weren't here in 2005. You won't dissuade me!
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:
Some real charmers on the board today.

_I_ will think of post-Isaac as Esau, entirely because I joked in my head that the other blob he threw at FL that flooded West Palm Beach was clearly Jacob.

That wasn't a "storm" either, I suppose, but it sure pounded the heck out of FL for a day. Wind speeds don't tell the whole tale, as Isaac should have made clear by now.


That's what I don't get. Isaac/ex-Isaac remnant low was sitting up in Indiana Sunday, not really doing much of anything, when it gets torn in two one half racing into Canada and giving them heavy rain, while other half headed south and gave us heavy rain. Most places in MS, AL, and the Panhandle had between 4 and 6 inches of rain, which is more than many of us got from the real Isaac. Now it's back out in the Gulf, threatening to do...well, something...depending on who's forecast your read. Where did all this energy come from? Try as I might, I can't find a source. How does a nothing low well inland get back into the Gulf after all that rain when it spent no further time over water?

Maybe I should take up another hobby, like knitting or something. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15190
I'll also add that I think at this point that anybody trying to figure out much of anything that Isaac's leftovers might do should spend a little time recalling Isaac himself. I'm done trying to guess much past maybe a day or so with that thing. If I lived anywhere down around there, I'd just curse loudly and get ready for maybe some more heavy rain and maybe a few decent little gusts. More of a flood problem than anything, given how saturated the ground is already, so we can only hope that whatever little wee Esau does, he moves more quickly through than his papa.

Isaac has been frustrating everybody who tries to figure out what he's up to for basically his entire life, even now into his afterlife.
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Michael isn't quite the midget he once was:

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Quoting dxdy:
What is the chance of a Fujiwara interaction between Leslie and Michael? Will they do the tango?

unlikely, since they are about 1200 miles apart right now. They would need to be less than 800 miles or so apart before there is even a chance.
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Special advisories issued for both storms....I just found out..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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