Leslie near hurricane strength; Son of Isaac (90L) emerges in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie is growing more organized and is approaching hurricane strength on its slow voyage northwards at 2 mph towards the island of Bermuda. Moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest continues to keep most of Leslie's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm, but satellite loops show that Leslie now has an impressive blow-up of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops near its center. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification, but the waters underneath Leslie are warm to great depth, making this less of a factor than usual. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall steadily today, reaching the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification, and potentially allow Leslie to be at Category 2 strength at its closest pass by Bermuda Saturday night and early Sunday morning, as indicated by the official NHC forecast. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 48% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 42-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Saturday morning near 2 am AST, and lasting until 8 pm AST Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, and Leslie will be capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize. NHC is predicting that hurricane-force winds will extend outwards from the center of Leslie by 35 miles on Thursday night, and I expect this will increase to at least 60 miles by early Sunday morning, when Leslie will be making its closest pass by Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. Heavy thunderstorms have built near the center of the storm, and Leslie is near hurricane strength.

Leslie's impact on Canada
Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. The timing of this trough is such that Leslie will be pulled northwards and then north-northeastwards over the weekend. There are still significant differences among the models in the timing and speed of Leslie's track over the weekend, but we can now dismiss the threat of Leslie making a direct hit on New England. The storm is likely to make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, though there are significant differences in the models' predictions of the timing of Leslie's arrival in Canada. The GFS model predicts an early Tuesday landfall in Newfoundland, but the ECMWF model is much faster and farther west, predicting a Monday afternoon landfall in Nova Scotia. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and these waves will increase in size as Leslie grows in strength this week. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Thursday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Invest 90L off the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

Son of Isaac: Invest 90L emerges in the Gulf of Mexico
During Tropical Depression Isaac's trek across the center of the U.S. during the Labor Day weekend, the storm was ripped in half. One portion of the storm moved over the Northeast U.S., bringing heavy rains there, and another portion sank southwards over Alabama. You can see this split by studying an animation of the vorticity at 850 mb (the amount of spin at low levels of the atmosphere, near 5,000 feet above sea level) from the University of Wisconsin. This remnant of Isaac, which still maintained some of Isaac's spin, brought heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches that caused flooding problems over portions of Alabama on Tuesday. The storm has now emerged over the Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Panhandle, and was designated Invest 90L this morning by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. According to NHC naming rules, "if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name". Since "the remnant" refers to the primary remnant, and 90L does not fit the definition of a "primary remnant", the storm will be given a new name should it develop into a tropical storm, according to information posted on the NHC Facebook page. Esau or Jacob--the names of the sons of the biblical Isaac--would be fitting names for 90L, but the next storm on the list of Atlantic storms is Nadine.

Long-range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows a large area of heavy rainfall along the coast due to 90L. The echoes do show some spiral banding behavior, but there is only a slight evidence of rotation to the storm. Infrared satellite loops show that the thunderstorms associated with 90L are not that vigorous and do not have particularly cold cloud tops, and the area covered by the thunderstorms is relatively small. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the northern Gulf of Mexico, but is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf have been cooled down considerably by the passage of Hurricane Isaac last week, and are 28 - 28.5°C. This is still plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will increase in organization on Thursday and Friday as it moves slowly south or south-southwest. 90L could become a tropical depression as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L on Thursday afternoon. A trough of low pressure and an associated surface cold front will move southeastwards over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and this trough should be capable of pulling 90L to the northeast to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has strengthened to 50 mph winds, and appears to have a favorable enough environment to become a hurricane later this week. Satellite loops show that this is a small tropical cyclone, far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. It's too early to tell if this system might threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AegirsGal:
It is unfortunate that you feel that way, because it isn't true...


Just so you know I am from Nova Scotia nd do not feel that way at all. The Americans are our friends, neighbours and allies. We go to war for each other and with each other. I have many good friends and relatives in the USA. Anytime I have asked for information on here regarding potential impacts to Canada my American brothers and sisters have been very accomodating. Did it ever occur to you that myabe the reason that there is more talk about storms around the Gulf and FLA is because there are more POSTERS here from those areas?
I want to apologize to my American friends. This person does NOT represent me or most Canadians!
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Quoting washingaway:
LOL



Really the models have this going across Central Florida into the northern Bahamas and recurve back to SE Florida and into the gulf with all due respect WTF!!!
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Quoting washingaway:
LOL

..no model has a track AFTER it gets to south florida in the recurve..guess it dies there
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Quoting sar2401:


Speaking of summer, I wonder how the Year of No Summer (1816) affected the Artic ice pack? I know the abnormally cold weather was caused by a combination of volcanic eruptions and record low solar activity, but did it also cause an increase in Artic ice and, if so, for how long? Seems like, if less ice can alter the climate, shouldn't abnormally cold weather affect the ice pack and cause climate change as well?


I don't really know, but in general in the past, I believe that any given year or couple of years have been really pretty negligible because the basic older ice pack was pretty stable. I'm sure there were fluctuations, but the thicker multiyear ice has been consistent until recently in history, at least as far as human history goes.

This year is just the falling off point after quite a while of progression toward weaker and younger ice. It's finally hit the point where there's not much thick ice left, so what's there is really crashing out now -- dramatic in the moment, but really several decades in the making.

So unless it was abnormally cold for a good while, I wouldn't guess it would have much effect outside of maybe some extra ice formation that year. But I don't know outside of guessing.
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Quoting presslord:



That's just great!!!! 'cause 12 inches last week just wasn't enough rain for us.....
We'll try to ring it out before it gets to ya Press, esp over ILwthr, we still need it bad, although the guys who didn't get their corn out probably are hoping that 6-10 day probabilty is correct. Bet you're hoping to spank some Tigers Sat., it'll be cool n wet, only supposed to have low 70 highs.

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LOL

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Here is another pic...close up....


read post 306... where I told what I was told by my sister....
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 42.7W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1775 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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Reporting 1003mb pressure here in Central Jacksonville. Interesting.
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Live streaming video from Pearington MS feeding residents thereLink
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


why not Isaac? If we keep going we're gonna run out of Names. 7 left if Nadine is taken


the NHC already discussed this.

The reason it will NOT be named Isaac is because it is not the same LLC.

The LLC was ejected to the north a few days ago, along with at least half of the mid level energy as well.



This will be classified as a totally new system, a new TD and with a new name, if it reaches naming strength.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1501
Quoting FloatingCity:


Nobody on this site gives a rats ass about anything that happens above New England, unless of course you are from the Motherland (Canada). This site is used by the Yanks, and to them, nobody else exists...thats why there isn't any talk about Leslie...doesn't affect the States...they don't care. Peace Brother!!


Speak for yourself. That discussion was posted here shortly after it was posted on the Hurricane Centre website. Even we Yanks care what happens in Canada, if for no other reason than we have friends and relatives there. Canada has been our steadfast friend and ally since the unpleasantness of 1812 ended. I'm proud to say we and Canada have the longest undefended border in the world. I don't know if you're just looking to stir up trouble or what, but you certainly don't represent the majority of us Yanks.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You should have seen Igor as it was underground its rapid intensification phase...


Using your phone...?

You wrote underground.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 403 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MARGATE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
MARGATE...
LAUDERDALE BY THE SEA...
COCONUT CREEK...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
OR LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION, SEEK SHELTER IN
AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Michael has acne.


You should have seen Igor as it was undergoing its rapid intensification phase...
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Getting some big lightning strikes. Winds are gusting to about 34 mph with some hail and driving sheets of rain.
alot of red in those storms, stay safe down there ok
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Quoting sar2401:


That's why the Greeks invented the alphabet. :) It won't be Isaac because it lost it's tropical features for days before it got back in the Gulf, so it will be Nadine, assuming it gets to at least TS status, which is by no means a sure thing.
Hurricane Beta probably came close to being retired.
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402. Marou
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Michael has acne.

it's maybe because he is growing...
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Quoting FloatingCity:


Nobody on this site gives a rats ass about anything that happens above New England, unless of course you are from the Motherland (Canada). This site is used by the Yanks, and to them, nobody else exists...thats why there isn't any talk about Leslie...doesn't affect the States...they don't care. Peace Brother!!
It is unfortunate that you feel that way, because it isn't true...
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EVEN THIS PLACE SUFFERED DAMAGES...some big cracks

To any Costa Rican or Roman Catholic this Basilica is very holy...It has a lot of meaning for any of us including me. I've been there many times.
This basilica is located about 100 miles west.
San Jose is about 85 miles west
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Michael has acne.

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Quoting LargoFl:
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
413 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
NORTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
INTERSECTION U.S. 27 PINES BLVD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
INTERSECTION U.S. 27 PINES BLVD...
PEMBROKE PINES...
EAST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
INTERSECTION I-75 AND GRIFFIN ROAD...
WESTON...
DAVIE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
OR LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION, SEEK SHELTER IN
AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



Getting some big lightning strikes. Winds are gusting to about 34 mph with some hail and driving sheets of rain.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Station 42040
NDBC
Location: 29.212N 88.207W
Date: Wed, 05 Sep 2012 15:50:00 UTC
Winds: W (270°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in and rising
Air Temperature: 74.3 F
Water Temperature: 82.4 F


Station KVKY
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 29.248N 88.441W
Date: Wed, 05 Sep 2012 19:35:00 UTC
Winds: W (280°) at 25.1 kt
Air Temperature: 73.4 F
Dew Point: 71.6 F
Visibility: 8.7 nmi



Station KMIS
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 29.296N 88.842W
Date: Wed, 05 Sep 2012 19:35:00 UTC
Winds: NW (320°) at 25.1 kt
Air Temperature: 77.0 F
Dew Point: 73.4 F
Visibility: 2.6 nmi


Station PACF1
NOS
Location: 30.152N 85.667W
Date: Wed, 05 Sep 2012 19:30:00 UTC
Winds: S (190°) at 8.9 kt gusting to 12.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.90 in
Air Temperature: 76.5 F
Water Temperature: 82.6 F
Those are all lovely observations - and some decently, although hardly unusually, gusty winds. But last I checked, the storm's estimated position was 30.0N, 87.0W. SAB puts it a little further over, at 30.2N 86.5W. The lowest pressure I've seen today in the Gulf is 1008.6. And there doesn't seem to be much in the way of spin.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 454
393. yoboi
what is that blob in the gom suppose to do? i looked at the models and it looks like a 1 yr old with a crayon scribbled on a map...
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Man its crazy here in S. Florida the sky looks gray/greenish with small hail mixed in with some intense rainfall. How is things in your side of town LargoFL?
just posted a warning for you folks..by me its clear, sunny and Hot
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Quoting Grothar:


It is a little funny though. By the way, I saw it first.



Not really. I noticed it on the previous model runs. It's just more pronounced now.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1501
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
413 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
NORTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
INTERSECTION U.S. 27 PINES BLVD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
INTERSECTION U.S. 27 PINES BLVD...
PEMBROKE PINES...
EAST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
INTERSECTION I-75 AND GRIFFIN ROAD...
WESTON...
DAVIE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
OR LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION, SEEK SHELTER IN
AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

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Quoting LargoFl:


Man its crazy here in S. Florida the sky looks gray/greenish with small hail mixed in with some intense rainfall. How is things in your side of town LargoFL?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


why not Isaac? If we keep going we're gonna run out of Names. 7 left if Nadine is taken


That's why the Greeks invented the alphabet. :) It won't be Isaac because it lost it's tropical features for days before it got back in the Gulf, so it will be Nadine, assuming it gets to at least TS status, which is by no means a sure thing.
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Quoting 12george1:
Son of Isaac? But what if it becomes Nadine?

If it forms into a TS it will be Nadine.
From Dr. Masters himself on the blog:
Since "the remnant" refers to the primary remnant, and 90L does not fit the definition of a "primary remnant", the storm will be given a new name should it develop into a tropical storm, according to information posted on the NHC Facebook page. Esau or Jacob--the names of the sons of the biblical Isaac--would be fitting names for 90L, but the next storm on the list of Atlantic storms is Nadine.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting 12george1:
Son of Isaac? But what if it becomes Nadine?


why not Isaac? If we keep going we're gonna run out of Names. 7 left if Nadine is taken
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I still believe it is an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, but there is a possibility it was dry air-induced. Regardless, Leslie should continue to strengthen slowly overnight.
It could be that or it could be dry air, I have barely looked at Leslie so I don't really know. How strong do you think Leslie will get TA?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting jascott1967:
The only thing for certain about the gulf blob is it won't go to Texas.

No, the only cirten thing is it wolnt hit Khatmandu nepal :) It probably wolnt hit TX though :)
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Quoting CloudGatherer:


Really?

The data from the closest NDBC observation point seem to correspond rather nicely with the NHC satellite estimates - it's hovering just above 1010MB. But the wind speed is now up to 4.1 knots. Batten down the hatches, boys!


Still I think being how conservative the NHC is they will wait till recon goes in there to confirm a TC or I could be wrong conditions should improve by tomorrow mourning we could have a TC by then.
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


And I believe one of the models now has another major polar cyclone hitting hard up there later this week, though I can't recall now where I found the model.

The melt has been amazing this year. It's like standing witness to the death of a very old monarch.

And it is going to have serious effects much farther south, probably already is. The year of no summer ice is probably going to be a very strange one, and it's probably coming very soon. I can only hope that the strangeness kicks people enough to start _taking it seriously_.


Speaking of summer, I wonder how the Year of No Summer (1816) affected the Artic ice pack? I know the abnormally cold weather was caused by a combination of volcanic eruptions and record low solar activity, but did it also cause an increase in Artic ice and, if so, for how long? Seems like, if less ice can alter the climate, shouldn't abnormally cold weather affect the ice pack and cause climate change as well?
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Quoting icmoore:


So San Jose is okay? I know nothing about the country but have a friend on FB who is ill (with Dengue fever) now and wants to travel from Costa Rica to San Jose to rest and recuperate.


not too much...just the biiiiig shake...some places lost power and some cracked buildings Juan Santamaria International Airport was shut for some hours...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Son of Isaac? But what if it becomes Nadine?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, it's probably just a gap between the eyewall and the rest of the convection. That's what satellite shows me at least.

I still believe it is an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, but there is a possibility it was dry air-induced. Regardless, Leslie should continue to strengthen slowly overnight.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


St. Louis will be lucky to reach 90 today. They goofed a bit on the forecast for today, but thats what happens when overnight storms decide to do things of their own nature. Weekend should bring another good shot of half inch to inch rains area wide so here's to hoping.

Saturday & Sunday Total QPF Forecast...



That's just great!!!! 'cause 12 inches last week just wasn't enough rain for us.....
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Quoting RTSplayer:



Well, why not use BOTH ratings, and hyphenate it?

Isaac: 1-3

Katrina: 4-5

Andrew: 5-4

Charley: 4-2

Wow. So simple, and still accurate.
somehow it still does not take into account for rainfall totals..which..caused the most damage in the aftermath..wind and storm surge didnt break the dams and dikes inland etc..rainfall amounts DID...well anyway..something indeed needs to be changed in the warnings..one inch of rain..equals one FOOT of water on the ground per acre..20 inches of rain..is how many FEET of water on the ground and in the lakes and rivers etc...whew..massive flooding and we have seen just that huh..
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Many nearby houses collapsed, my sister's the neighbor's and some others are cracked but standing...

look at this map... this map shows (south) western Costa Rica


click here for bigger pic


So San Jose is okay? I know nothing about the country but have a friend on FB who is ill (with Dengue fever) now and wants to travel from Costa Rica to San Jose to rest and recuperate.
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Quoting KingofNewOrleans:


Any pictures of all the nutria washing up over there?


Not by me, but the news crews over here have quite a few.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.