Southwestern Caribbean remains disturbed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on November 04, 2005

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The rains continue over Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and Costa Rica today in association with a disturbed area of weather that has persisted all week. The focus today has shifted away from the northern coast of Honduras eastwards, to the ocean areas east of Nicaragua that spawned Hurricane Beta. Wind shear is in the 5-10 knot range over this area, which may allow for some slow tropical development the next few days. Steering currents are pushing things westward at about 10 mph. If a tropical depression does form in this area, it would primarily be a threat to Nicaragua and Honduras.

Some rainfall amounts for the three-day period ending at 7 pm EST Thursday night include:

La Ceiba, Honduras 107 mm (4.2")
Guanaja, Honduras 132 mm (5.2")
Roatan, Honduras 136 mm (5.4")
Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua 59 mm (2.3")
Bocas del Toro, Panama 200 mm (7.9")

There may be some respite from the rains on the north coast of Honduras for the Roatan area today, but the areas of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras hardest hit by Hurricane Beta will continue to suffer periods of heavy rain. This disturbed weather pattern is expected to continue for at least the next four days, seriously aggravating Beta's flooding situation. By the middle of next week, the GFS model is indicating strong westerly winds will invade the Caribbean, creating enough wind shear to put an end to the tropical storm formation threat and reduce the heavy rains over Central America. However, some of the other computer models disagree with this scenario, and maintain the threat of tropical storm formation in the area north of Panama. In any case, the tropical storm threat to the U.S. for the next seven days is very low.

I'll update the situation over the weekend as important changes occur.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Wilma in Stuart (Scorbic)
Windshield crushed by fallen sign
Hurricane Wilma in Stuart
Hurricane Wilma, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida (jorick)
Blown over roof at a gas station on Power Line Rd.
Hurricane Wilma, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

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84. 8888888889gg
4:25 PM GMT on November 05, 2005
new blog up come on overe and take a look if any one is on her
83. FloridaBorn
11:35 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Hey code1, I can tell you for a fact that it is natural for a dog to eat feces. In fact, they just love the kitty gourmet variety. Sometimes I think dogs are God's way of teaching us unconditional love.

Another tidbit now that hurricane season is winding down: The safest place in Florida during Hurricane season is the Gainesville area. You can get twice the house in Gainesville that you had in South Florida and still have some left in your savings account. And if you move a little farther east between Gainesville and Palatka, it gets even cheaper as long as you don't insist on those horrid gated communities. The worst that happened in the Gainesville area in the past several decades was last year (Frances and Jeanne) which were just tropical storm force winds. You'll never believe how cheap land is about 30 miles east of Gainesville.
Member Since: June 8, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 11
82. tripleb
11:12 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Not that I am complaining but, how often have we seen this statement this Tropical Storm Season ?

"There are currently no Tropical Storm Advisories."

81. seflagamma
10:56 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Code1 I answered your email.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
80. billsfaninsofla
10:45 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Nirican... Where are you? I believe you, I'm just repeating what Bryan Norcross, NHC and others are saying, Wilma was just a Cat 1.. We lost most of our roof, gutters on the South and West sides of house, and a grapefruit tree that we didn't really want anymore, but didn't exactly plan to have it gone this way, torn out of ground and lifted onto back of the house. How about you, any damage?
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5247
79. roatangardener
10:37 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Just as Dr Jeff said... here on Roatan we got a short break from the rain. it actually looked like the sun might come out...but it didnt. now it is very overcast again and a little dark to the east. my next visit to the states i will purchase another rain gauge... a cruise ship was here today with lots of visitors so at least they got to get an island tour without pouring rain.

Dr Jeff keep those forcasts coming... good or bad we need to know. thanks. helen
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 54 Comments: 197
78. nirican
10:16 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
billsfaninsofla:

The way my house was shaking, Wilma was no CAT1 where I was sitting. I've gone through CAT1 and CAT2 storms before, Wilma has a high CAT2!

Hope your weathered sotmr well.
77. tropicalking
10:10 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Hello Jeff.What Does The Red + Marks Mean On The Radar screen.Also do You like My Blog Formot.Please Visit!!!
76. seflagamma
10:07 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Please say NOOO to really cool weather; I don't like to bundle up very much; sweat shirts & pants enough when it gets into the 70's... I don't have fireplace inside, just the outside firepit by the pool and that is just fine on a cool 65-70 degree evening! Beside, my neighbors found most of my orchids strowned down the block and returned them to me; I could hate to lose them after all they have been through!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
75. seflagamma
10:04 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Good afternoon everyone.
We've had new roofs going up in our neighborhood for over a year now. Several of us got new pmes in 2003;then last summer Broward got the TS winds from Jeanne & Francis and the ones with old roofs needed new ones; & insurance paid for part of theirs. So for more than a year now we have 3 or 4 houses at a time getting roofs, all by the same 2 or 3 companies that are all really good. We still had new roofs going up and still some blue roofs before Wilma, but now, EVERYOne else will be getting roofs; the old ones really did not hold. Either down to the wood or torn off corners to see the inside of the attic!
Yea, good roofing companies stay really busy around here with no let up anytime soon! The houses on each side of me and behind me had old roofs, now they have no shingles or paper, so I need to get use to the wonderful smell of Tar and Tar paper going up! LOL
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
74. code1
7:28 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Skye unfortunately, that is the way it works. Do you know the old song "tiiimme is on my side, yes it is", this is the roofers and contracters mantra now. Along with gouging! Ouch.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
73. code1
7:24 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Bye Stormy, have a great day and better weekend! Goes for the rest of you too.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
72. Skyepony (Mod)
7:01 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Wow~my backyard is like a little cosmos of the big reality goin on in fl & was just broadend by Wilma. My husband is out there workin on the barn roof which was only pratially reroofed for Wilma after being tarped since Jeanne. We had a company do the house some months ago, once materails were available. The north side doesn't lay as flat since Wilma's brief hurricane force winds:( We chose to reroof the barn to save money to upgrade the rest of the fence the insurance didn't pay for. While this transpires~ next door~ 4 acres is being leveled to build 7 houses ~ while not far south of me people are calling every roofer in the book, many responding with an answering machine. Many won't get the color they wanted or will wait for months for roofing supply because of the shortage. Those amongst the destruction, notice these storms hardly take a toll on the supplies of the developers.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
71. Pensacola21
6:57 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
byebye
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
70. weatherdude65
6:54 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
ok...heading to lunch. Have a good afternoon 21
69. Pensacola21
6:45 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Bye Stormy, bye the way, great blog..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
68. weatherdude65
6:45 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Bye stormy....enjoy your weekend! :-) Talk with you on Monday
67. weatherdude65
6:44 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
I made a comment :-)
66. stormydee
6:44 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
ok ok...almost 2 hours extra now...
Im done for today...Going to enjoy the sunshine for the rest of the day...and tomorrow, and then Sunday...then, I guess I'll see everyone back in here on Monday.
Have a wonderful weekend!
:-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
65. stormydee
6:42 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Act. 65, just finished adding a bunch of phone numbers and websites to my blog....come on now, aren't u gonna comment? :-) Link
no biggie if not...
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
64. Pensacola21
6:41 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
LOL... Good one Stormy!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
63. weatherdude65
6:41 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
stormy, your secret is safe with us!
62. Pensacola21
6:40 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
You got that right Weatherdude... If I got off early, I would be outta here like LIGHTNING!!!!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
61. stormydee
6:39 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
well, 21 we usually do close at 12Pm on Fridays...but we've been extremely busy lately so the guys are still working anyway...Im salary, makes no difference if I stay or go BUT I know the boss likes it when I put in some extra time here and there...I seem more dedicated that way...(if he only knew I was blogging....hehe) L0L :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
60. weatherdude65
6:38 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
stormy, I thought that you would have been outside by now enjoying the wonderful weather :-)
59. stormydee
6:36 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
never even noticed, thanks 65 :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
58. Pensacola21
6:36 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
I wish our shop closed at 12:00, lol, yeah right.. My boss wouldn't have it..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
57. Pensacola21
6:35 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Lucky girl!!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
56. stormydee
6:31 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
hey 21 :-)
Yes Im still at work, but only cause Im blogging. :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
55. weatherdude65
6:20 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
hey 21....stormy, addresses for WU are at the bottom of the page under contact us
54. Pensacola21
6:18 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Hey everyone! :-)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
53. stormydee
6:14 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
sounds good code :-) Now, we need addresses....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
52. code1
6:01 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
OK stormy will try again, thanks for the reminder! On another unrelated weather note...My personal feeling is that we owe WU a GREAT debt of graditude (understatement here) for all they do. Yes, they do make money, thank God for America! I would love for all of us to send them a case of champagne or wine for Thanksgiving. Any ideas how to do so, and how to find out how to do so if others are interested? Aaron, leave this post alone!!! This is not solicited from WU, so should be ok. lol
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
51. stormydee
5:55 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
oh code, I have an email JUST for junk...I never use any other email besides that one UNTIL I get done registering...then I go to that site and update my information only after I know its a safe site. :-)
And, its worth me to send one letter to stop 100's of unwanted ones...:-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
50. stormydee
5:51 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
I made my own blog just now with the info from the magazine...so that way it won't be lost here in Dr Masters blog if some other people (not in here today) want to stop junk mail too. :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
49. code1
5:48 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Stormy, paid my dues 1 1/2 years ago, can't remember if $5 or not, but they started back up again within 6 months! Don't know if we can truly get rid of them or not. I do give out a 2nd email now though, when not sure of site. Just dump it all every so often, so that it does not clog my everday one's. More food for thought.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
48. weatherdude65
5:44 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
well, thank you for doing so :-)
47. stormydee
5:40 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
oh 65, Ive been meaning to bring this magazine in since last month to share this interesting info with everyone. :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
46. billsfaninsofla
5:39 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Nirican... everyone is saying that Wilma was a Cat 1.. um, not saying I believe it, but that's what they're saying... I believe what I see in what is left of my roof :( ..
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5247
45. weatherdude65
5:37 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
hmmmm you should have been you are...cant spell either lol
44. code1
5:36 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Gotcha 65!! Makes sense now. Was looking lower in the states. Thaks!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
43. weatherdude65
5:31 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Code, I am just looking at the temp spread from the southern part of Canada up to the NW part.....2C in the south to -19 in the NW....hey, maybe I am reading it wrong!!! LOL Would not be the first time I was wrong about something!! LOL
42. weatherdude65
5:27 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Stormy, you just a bundle of really good information today. :-)
41. globalize
5:26 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
One of the key variables for computing the inflation rate is 'away from home lodging'. Think about it. Hotel prices would be inversely affected by inflation in an economy. But this is how numbers are skewed to get a desired result.
Sorry guys, know this is not weather related. Just venting.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
40. code1
5:25 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
How do I read that 65? Just don't see it. Sorry for the ignorance, still learning here. Thanks for your patience! If it is too much for this blog, please email me.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
39. weatherdude65
5:19 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
code, there is actually a temp difference of about 21degrees. The lowest current temp that I see is 0 to -2F. It will probably be awhile for the air to move south, but I think that it will sometime this month.
38. stormydee
5:14 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
food for thought...
Tired of Junkmail? Remove your name and address from comsumer mailing lists to eliminate junk mail.
Mail Preference Service
Direct Marketing Association
PO Box 643
Carmel, NY 10512
Its free....
Or register online for $5 at DMAconsumers.org.

Courstesy of Natural Awakenings October 2005 Brevard/Indian River Edition
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
37. code1
5:13 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Spin only.

Stormy, me too! Thankfully, we don't use them as long...ah, paradise!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
36. stormydee
5:10 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
40's? Yeah, Im ready to use my fireplace (ok Northerners, don't pick on me LOL)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
35. globalize
5:09 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Half this country is third world. A third are illiterate, by public statistics. Functionally, the number is far greater. Inflation is double or more the stated rate. All public statistics and news reporting are skewed to promote globalization of banking and industry.
Anyone noticed that the unemployment number has not moved even though a million or so have lost jobs just due to storms. That should have moved up the jobless number nearly a whole per cent. Reported this morning that employment grew in September!
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
34. stormydee
5:09 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
....more food for thought...
With only 5% of the world's population, Americans consume 25% of the worlds energy......according to the US Dept of Energy, at current rates, America's slice of the world's energy pie will soar to 32% by 2020.


Courstesy of Natural Awakenings October 2005 Brevard/Indian River Edition
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.