Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

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1187. divdog
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I have terrible grammar this morning, as I have not yet had my cup of coffee. Former Issac seems to be sliding his circulation right down that band that formed yesterday, I could be wrong but it seems like the center is just east of Pensacola, FL. Tropics are in full gear.

According to weather channel a couple of minutes said the low was right around fort Walton beach dropping into the gulf soon
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1186. hcubed
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Subs are capable of breaking through up to 25 feet of ice if necessary. Not only that, but there are natural fissures and cracks that form even in the heart of arctic night due to wind and ocean currents.

You won't find 1958 naval maps with the kind of ice extent we are seeing. Or any other historical surface naval maps either. In recorded naval history going back as far as the 1600's, the ice extent has never been anywhere near the current levels. Never. Period.

To further the point, the last time ice extent was this low according to climatological proxies was around 125,000 years ago. Sea levels were much higher, and the world was quite a different place, climatologically speaking. Modern man had just barely arrived on the scene.

Basic physics do not back up any hypothetical global cooling. Short of a massive volcanic event, the planet will continue to warm, regardless of a Maunder minimum (greenhouse climate forcings exceed that of any solar minimum). We are already seeing the effects from the reduced ice. The unprecedented polar "hurricane" that formed this year from all that open water in the arctic was just one example. The warming arctic is also having an effect on global weather patterns, which Dr. M has discussed in several of hist postings.

In summary, every piece of scientific data goes against your claim.


Even this paper, from a peer-reviewed source?

Science

the title:

A 10,000-Year Record of Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Variability – View from the Beach

the authors:

Svend Funder, Hugues Goosse, Hans Jepsen, Eigil Kaas, Kurt H. Kjær, Niels J. Korsgaard, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Hans Linderson, Astrid Lyså, Per Möller, Jesper Olsen and Eske Willerslev

finally the abstract:

Abstract

"...We present a sea-ice record from northern Greenland covering the past 10,000 years. Multiyear sea ice reached a minimum between ~8500 and 6000 years ago, when the limit of year-round sea ice at the coast of Greenland was located ~1000 kilometers to the north of its present position. The subsequent increase in multiyear sea ice culminated during the past 2500 years and is linked to an increase in ice export from the western Arctic and higher variability of ice-drift routes. When the ice was at its minimum in northern Greenland, it greatly increased at Ellesmere Island to the west. The lack of uniformity in past sea-ice changes, which is probably related to large-scale atmospheric anomalies such as the Arctic Oscillation, is not well reproduced in models. This needs to be further explored, as it is likely to have an impact on predictions of future sea-ice distribution..."
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Quoting LargoFl:
..look at that path..just about the same path as debby
Yep, that's what I was thinking. Another Debby set up, a north of TB, lots of rain and maybe a tornado or two.
During Debby, I was in a local Walmart and a tornado warning sounded. The whole store's staff and customers, including me were moved to the center of the store. Given free cookies and water, for about an hour.
Crazy thing was, that where we were positioned was right under a huge skylight and in the wall mirror and
dinner/glassware section of the store. The cookies were good.
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980.8mb/ 72.2kt

Leslie is likely a 65 knot Category 1 hurricane.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

And If not, she is definitely on the verge. She's come a long way in the past few days.


Unfortunately Leslie could very well become our first Major of the season.
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1182. SLU
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Boy shear sure seems to have let up quit a bit. I hope Bermuda is ready.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

And If not, she is definitely on the verge. She's come a long way in the past few days.


Bermuda is so tiny and in the middle of nowhere, it's almost statistically impossible for a hurricane to give them a direct hit but it looks like Leslie is headed straight for them.
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Quoting SLU:
This is a hurricane ...



More than likely if this organization trend continues it will be upgraded to the 6th hurricane of the season later today, almost two days ahead of schedule.
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...
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I read this am that some tar had washed up and that dna tests were being done to see if was from Deepwater horizon. On that note, the Feds filed suit this morning;

Deepwater Horizon: BP accused of gross negligence

The US Justice Department has accused BP of "gross negligence and wilful misconduct" over the Deepwater Horizon disaster, claims which BP denies.

snip

"The behaviour, words, and actions of these BP executives would not be tolerated in a middling size company manufacturing dry goods for sale in a suburban mall," the government said in its 39-page filing."

snip

"That such a simple, yet fundamental and safety-critical test could have been so stunningly, blindingly botched in so many ways, by so many people, demonstrates gross negligence," it said.

and the beat goes on...
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Quoting SLU:
This is a hurricane ...


And If not, she is definitely on the verge. She's come a long way in the past few days.
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1177. kwgirl
Quoting RTSplayer:



I think Stephen King must have had some traumatic experiences with women as a child.

What's the deal with all the psychopathic women and even a demon-possessed car with a female name?
Good morning all. What I think is more telling with Stephen King is the fact that in a lot of his books children are killed. Sure a lot of them are heroes as well, but come on. I always wonder what kind of sick mind can create such literature.
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Quoting RTSplayer:



I think Stephen King must have had some traumatic experiences with women as a child.

What's the deal with all the psychopathic women and even a demon-possessed car with a female name?
Cujo was a male. But women, as a whole make much more evil subject matter. (in a novel sort of way, of course).
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Quoting 7544:


maybe about 20 miles away from the water at this hour so looks like it would hit the gulf real soon dont know how fast its moving but that what i see maybe 30% at 11 am imo


Yep, the orange crayon should come out today and maybe red by tomorrow morning. Doc did say shear was supposed to be steady over the Northeast Gulf so if anything does come to form from it, should be held in check by both that and the previously up welled waters from Issac. If he does drift more to the west and somehow gets southwest of New Orleans he could get into untapped waters.


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Paleotempestology

Paleotempestology is the study of past tropical cyclone activity by means of geological proxies as well as historical documentary records. The term was coined by Kerry Emanuel.

Anybody want to do this job? :P
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1172. VINNY04
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I have terrible grammar this morning, as I have not yet had my cup of coffee. Former Issac seems to be sliding his circulation right down that band that formed yesterday, I could be wrong but it seems like the center is just east of Pensacola, FL. Tropics are in full gear.

well Starbuks can get you one that will wake you up in no time. for just a couple of bucks.
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Quoting SLU:
This is a hurricane ...



Boy shear sure seems to have let up quite a bit. I hope Bermuda is ready.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Sure looks like it... waiting on more VIS SAT images to coming to get a better feel on where the center is or could be relocating to. Pretty sure the ATCF did a good job but need that visual confirmation.


I have terrible grammar this morning, as I have not yet had my cup of coffee. Former Issac seems to be sliding his circulation right down that band that formed yesterday, I could be wrong but it seems like the center is just east of Pensacola, FL. Tropics are in full gear.

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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
ouch most models put 90L south of SELA by Thursday.... NOT GOOD!!! we do not need ANY wind pushing water up right now - we just got rid of it!!


I doubt anything more than a 45mph TS.
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1168. SLU
This is a hurricane ...

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Quoting indianrivguy:
Nadine means evil in Stephan Kingese


M.o.o.n. spells evil



I think Stephen King must have had some traumatic experiences with women as a child.

What's the deal with all the psychopathic women and even a demon-possessed car with a female name?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1165. 7544
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Not only that but I would say this one impressive feeder band is it not? It's all nocturnally driven and over water. Soon as the center hits the water it could develop certainly develop agian.


maybe about 20 miles away from the water at this hour so looks like it would hit the gulf real soon dont know how fast its moving but that what i see maybe 30% at 11 am imo
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6869
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Nadine means evil in Stephan Kingese


M.o.o.n. spells evil
Well, at the very least, seduced by it...
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1162. LargoFl
wording will change come this weekend huh...............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF TAMPA BAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
STORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COOL FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE AND NOT SEVERE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
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ouch most models put 90L south of SELA by Thursday.... NOT GOOD!!! we do not need ANY wind pushing water up right now - we just got rid of it!!
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1159. LargoFl
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BEACHES...CREATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS EMANATING FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS OUR AREA. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION.
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1158. LargoFl
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 62.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......140NE 200SE 60SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 120SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 62.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 62.9W
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1157. LargoFl
Quoting 7544:


ALMOST fully in the gom ?
..sure looks like it, by this evening it will all be in the gulf..in 85 degree waters
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1156. WxLogic
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Not only that but I would say this one impressive feeder band is it not? It's all nocturnally driven and over water. Soon as the center hits the water it could develop certainly develop agian.


Sure looks like it... waiting on more VIS SAT images to coming to get a better feel on where the center is or could be relocating to. Pretty sure the ATCF did a good job but need that visual confirmation.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5008
Quoting WxLogic:
For now 90L appears to be relatively well stacked:

850MB:


700MB:


500MB:


Still has work to do on that MLC but overall is solid enough for a TD to develop in 24 to 48HR. May be less if conditions are just right.


Not only that but I would say that is one impressive feeder band is it not? It's all nocturnally driven and over water. Soon as the center hits the water it could certainly develop agian.
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Ex-Isaac has some vorticity. Might influence Florida weather this weekend.
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90L is no threat to Texas. A front will be rolling through South East Texas this weekend pushing anything that might being the GOM North East. Another rainmaker for Florida. Hoping that it does not develop.
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Quoting Grothar:


Just a light tap will do. You want me to tell you what the other two are going to do? (that I also wrote about 3 days ago.) :P


Yes, please give us an update on the other two AOI's. Also, how long do you see 90L hanging out in the Gulf? When is the cold front forecast to come through?
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1151. Msdrown
Quoting Stoopid1:
90L a.k.a. the remnants of Isaac. Impressive how long a big storm like Isaac can retain it's identity. Seems like it has a fair chance of redevelopment (would still be Isaac if it did) but it only has a limited window so it's doubtful.


This thunderstorm/Low isn't part of Isaac. That all went to the NE. This is something new but it is still just a simple Low with a mess of thunderstorms/lighting. It didn't even deliver that much wind. Enough to blow my drying out items off of the table below my house so I need to start that process over again. At least my lower room is clean and drying from Isaac. Plus it delivered enough rain to wash the mud off of the grass and roads.

Water temps down in the NGOM, nothing is going to happen with this storm other then rain and misery for the fishermen who just left port after Isaac.
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1150. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:


ALMOST fully in the gom ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6869
1149. LargoFl
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Quoting Stoopid1:
90L a.k.a. the remnants of Isaac. Impressive how long a big storm like Isaac can retain it's identity. Seems like it has a fair chance of redevelopment (would still be Isaac if it did) but it only has a limited window so it's doubtful.


90L is a hole new thing so if it gets named. It will be the N storm It will not be called isaac
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1147. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Don't dislocate your shoulder again :)


Just a light tap will do. You want me to tell you what the other two are going to do? (that I also wrote about 3 days ago.) :P
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
1146. dmh1026
It will be interesting to see Leslie, and Michael dance together in the Atlantic. take a look at the forecast track for each...
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Those facts are completely off.

As the NHC stated yesterday, this is a "PIECE" of Isaac and would mean that it would receive a new name, Nadine, and has the possibility of becoming a Weak Tropical Cyclone as it stalls out over the next couple of days.


Oh? I apologize then. Seems the weathermen here are off. It is Jacksonville mets talking about tropical weather after all.
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1144. WxLogic
For now 90L appears to be relatively well stacked:

850MB:


700MB:


500MB:


Still has work to do on that MLC but overall is solid enough for a TD to develop in 24 to 48HR. May be less if conditions are just right.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5008
1143. Grothar
While 90L is a relative of Isaac, it actually developed from the mid-level low associated with it, so yes, you are correct, it most likely would receive a new name, since it is a new system. I believe some models may develop it even more if it moves into the Bahamas.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
Quoting Grothar:


Geoff, don't you think somebody should have mentioned 90L in their blog a couple of days ago? Gee, what a surprise :)


Don't dislocate your shoulder again :)
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Nadine is a Russian name meaning "Hope".


As in "Hope it doesn't come to Louisiana".
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Looks like Isaac's little sister(Nadine) wants to finish the job in Florida, as Isaac was first forecasted to go for the RNC, but Isaac had other plans... ;)


Looks like most of the rain will be in central and northern Florida. It all depends how far south 90L gets in the Gulf before it is swept off to the northeast.
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90L is quite vigorous, especially since Isaac has been over land for some time. A good amount of moisture still associated with it.
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1138. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Geoff, don't you think somebody should have mentioned 90L in their blog a couple of days ago? Gee, what a surprise :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
Quoting Stoopid1:
90L a.k.a. the remnants of Isaac. Impressive how long a big storm like Isaac can retain it's identity. Seems like it has a fair chance of redevelopment (would still be Isaac if it did) but it only has a limited window so it's doubtful.

Those facts are completely off.

As the NHC stated yesterday, this is a "PIECE" of Isaac and would mean that it would receive a new name, Nadine, and has the possibility of becoming a Weak Tropical Cyclone as it stalls out over the next couple of days.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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