Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting icmoore:


Hydrus is free to post long range models and you are free not to look at them, "bud". We don't all "worry" but we are here to talk about weather and all the future possibilities.
I appreciate your post. The long range models cannot always predict whether or not a storm will form or where it will go, but they are a great tool when it comes to seeing what patterns may evolve. In short, the models do a better job at predicting what patterns will occur than where or when a storm will develop..:)
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Quoting SSideBrac:


Like the train of thought - I personally would like to see - WSRD

Wind, Surge, Rain, Duration

Just 2 additions to your initial suggestion, Whether this is even feasible at the moment, I do not know.
An additional facet that I always factor in is Tide state linked with forecast impact time as this can make a significant difference



One of the local stations, WAFB 9, tried to do this, but it's truly hard to comprehend the combined effects of surge, rain, and duration.

These effects were extremely hard to understand and predict, and recall that the previous analog flood was again spring related, and not involving a surge, further, it was before the modern computers and digital age for cameras, gauges, or models, all besides the road changes I already mentioned above. So comparing data from previous "analog" floods was obviously nearly impossible.

Even Betsy did not do this on it's course, as we have several 65 to 75 year old eye witnesses, people who were adults at the time of previous hurricanes and spring floods, all of whom said the water was at least X number of feet higher this time than it's ever been.


This is very problematic for understanding, because in some cases the official records for previous floods are known to be flawed, and there may be more flaws in some isolated locations.

Then once you actually identify the problems, you have to tailor a forecast to the local topography and the storm's characteristics on some sort of absolute severity scale., and try to figure out exactly what's going to happen on any given site.

I just don't think that's possible until better research is done on the topography of all of these effected areas. You can't model future storm surge or flooding properly if you can't even explain previous flooding events.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
Quoting Grothar:


You just want to watch the storms. :)
I would rather watch the storm without strep throat and fever... at least I went to school in morning so I don't miss any AP Calculus or AP Physics.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7463
For those debating the classification system for matters of the public, I’ll give my story just to provide a little perspective from one (albeit very limited angle). I am a Wunderground lurker for a few years now who did not evacuate. First of all, My husband and I have a 5 year old and a two year old. So that in itself advocated for us to evacuate, frankly. Additionally, we have gotten a ton of rain this summer which I knew was going to make the ground underneath the trees particularly supple and I live in a neighborhood full of oak trees. However, a few other important factors came into play which argued against for us in particular. 1) Evacuation during Gustav cost us about $1600. Now, my car broke down in Pascagoula WHILE en route out of the area because it's fairly old, and it cost a fortune in sanity and money while on the side of the road at 5am, baby in arms, so that was an unusual added cost, but it is what it is. Relatives circled back (an hour and a half drive) and picked us up, the car was towed and we had to pay a pretty penny to get it back home after it was all over. That was our last experience with evacuating not including Katrina which was another major expense. 2) This storm development was consistently being hindered by dry air. 3) My husband had to stay to go to work Wednesday morning in the hurricane and leaving him to evacuate after my last experience scared me. And 4) Which was in my mind most important, this was (WAS!) a fast mover when everyone was making their decisions and many models and meteorologists projected it to stay so.
So, we stayed. We had no money to evacuate this time. I still have the same car that broke down in Gustav. Entergy repeated religiously from days before they had 24 states worth of resources to help bring us back online quickly, so we felt fairly secure and "knew" an outage would be two or three days max and the storm was moving quickly without continuous large swaths of rain, but rather many bands with considerable dry air in between, and we were stocked and in an area which was high and always rebounded quickly despite being on the outskirt of New Orleans proper.
Verdict: Things went as expected. We never flooded, despite my particular area receiving almost 20 inches of rain which our pumps kept up with beautifully. We lost power 12 hours. My house never got above 76 degrees. I never so much as lost anything in my fridge, all of whose contents we emptied into ice chests when the winds kicked up. We were fine. The house was fine. We lost a few tree limbs. BUT I am fully aware that we lucked out. We really did. Why? Because this large weather system SLOWED DOWN (even stalled) more than I, many companies and it seems even our meteorologists expected.
So, as far as warnings and whether the Cat system is correct to allow residents to base their decisions off of, I would like to suggest from my own perspective alone (right or wrong, please don't hammer me) that whatever future improved future classification systems take into account perhaps a formulation for speed of storm movement COMBINED with wind speed and maybe even prestorm saturation conditions. That appears to be what hit many of us hardest. With the exception of the flooding outside of New Orleans due to surge which was fairly accurately forecasted, the sustained and long lasting, but relatively low speed winds combined with very saturated ground felled trees, limbs and power lines which crippled energy and communication infrastructures more than most residents and even the power and communications corporations expected. We heard much of the 20 inch rain projections and surge issues which I actually think were spot on (to which many local officials answered, the rain will be steady, the pumps will keep up and our new levees are working great and they were mostly right!), but sometimes I think people get lost in the Cat definitions rather than circumstance totality. And I tend to wonder if someone emphasized, "Hey guys, this storm could slow substantially and 50-80 mph sustained duration winds (rather than some blow-through Cat 1 like we've seen in years past) upon trees and poles sunk into wet ground are really going to create substantial infrastructure damage," many would have prepared differently, particularly since most were basing their decisions to stay or go at a time when it was moving 21 or 18 mph rather than the painfully slow 6 mph/stall. Some, like myself still may have stayed because of the financial strain of leaving, but I think it would have provided perhaps a more realistic damage expectation, and those who would normally be on the fence about leaving may perhaps either leave or prepare for much longer infrastructure and travel outages.
Again, PLEEEEEEASE try not to hammer me, I am just looking to provide one story so most of you better brainstormers than me out there can think up some good alternatives to the Cat system for public advisories. I know there are other aspects and situations to consider like those who flooded in Laplace & Braithwaite which will take some individualized looks as well, but I think Wunderground is a great resource for ideas so I’m just providing some situational perspective for you to maybe consider if anyone has ideas on how to make things better! :)

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From 8 a.m. NHC Discussion
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 31N82W...TO 26N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND 25N97W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N89W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED IN COMPARATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR 26N84W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

gotta go!

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Quoting TomballTXPride:
I thought AGW initially meant more storms. Then I remember recently it's been changed to reflect fewer storms but stronger ones?? Where have all the majors been this year. Okay now I'm confused!!!!!!!!
Yeah, sorry, nobody ever claimed AGW meant more tropical cyclones in the scientific literature, to my knowledge. Do you have a reference?

OTOH, I have claimed that AGW could mean more TCs in the Atlantic and other basins just because more of the ocean is covered with favorable SSTs. If you map the northernmost limit of tropical cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic there is a clear trend to the north. Check it out for yourself in the NHC archives. Graduate students...possible paper?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Thanks, Doctor Masters. I'm home sick today... -__-


You just want to watch the storms. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23721
I can't believe I'm saying this, but Michael looks better organized than Leslie.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Could you please link me to that sight G.S.?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

no

If it is truly the remnant "low"/disturbance from Isaac, I believe it would be Isaac again.
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Interesting it is, with both GFS and ECMWF and sat imagery showing the low-mid level remnants of Isaac might pull an Ivan-like loop-around path... dropping down SSW thru AL, regenerating / consolidating back into a weak TC, perhaps as a TD, over NE Gulf below Mobile / Pensacola / or SE off mouth MS River within next 24-36 hrs...

If so, not sure if NHC would reinstate as Isaac, if feature maintained enough continuity over past week, although the origins are same... LOL, there was much heated "animated discussion" among the forecasters at the NHC with Ivan Part 2 on how would classify it's return.

Anyway, as long as rainfall associated with it doesn't become too significant and tracks / sits where currently projected until the strong cold front coming this weekend sweeps it off to E / NE, the NLY winds should benefit drainage over South Louisiana... although I'm sure the NE Gulf region and many in FL won't welcome any additional rain either...

Looking at the forecast by week's end, I guess I might smile somewhat at the thought that "Isaac" might eventually end up the "Florida landfall" storm it appeared would be, right up until Sat 25th GFS runs onward sniffed out the changes that put SE LA in the crosshairs and residents on high alert.

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Afternoon all.

The ULL over The Bahamas that is helping to slow Leslie's progress is also giving us sporadic rain showers and overcast skies.



I'm not complaining too much, since this means the normally oppressive heat has been somewhat moderated...

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Quoting TomballTXPride:

But no need to worry about 15 days out since patterns will likely change immensely in two weeks. Let's focus on today and even next week first Bud.

Enough of the "Bud", BUD...
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Quoting guygee:
Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites(xxx^H^H^H No, wait, make that airplanes,or maybe even make that "ships"-Vessels that travel the Seas) since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Pre-satellite (and pre-aerial reconnaissance), I wonder how many tropical waves got classified as Tropical Storms since there was not a good way to check for a closed circulation except from scattered ground and ship observations?
I do not recall that possibility being taken seriously enough in the research recalibration of past Atlantic-basin named storms per year.


Other words, you're saying some strong tropical waves in the past were incorrectly classified as weak or moderate TS based on partial knowledge, thus actually inflating pre-satellite numbers...

I wonder how often you'd expect this error to happen in a typical season though? maybe once or twice?

That would of course off-set the satellite era helping us "find" actual storms meeting TS criteria, which means that the old data should NOT be adjusted up after all.


You are correct, I had not thought of that at all, and have never seen the possibility mentioned by anyone.


Great find...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
Twitter: @twc_hurricane: We're on the "L/M" storms, still no major (Cat 3+) hurricane. That's never happened since storms were named (1950).
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7463
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

Fall is just around the corner.
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Quoting iloco:


The SPC is calling it Isaac in their Day 1 Outlook.
...NCNTRL GULF COAST...
LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM REPEAT DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE
ENHANCED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS SRN AL THIS MORNING WITH
POSSIBLE MCV EVOLVING COINCIDENT WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
ISAAC. STORM-SCALE AND NAM GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND
INDICATE THAT AREAS ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...FROM MS/AL BORDER WWD ACROSS MS TO ERN LA...WILL BECOME
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING ONLY THIN SCATTERED
CLOUDS ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S F.
WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LOW
LEVEL W-SWLYS TOPPED BY MODEST NLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
VEERED WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPSCALE GROWTH WITH SWD/SWWD CELL PROPAGATION AND AN
INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND HAZARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.


They just don't want to let go, do they!!!

Goodnight all
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
I thought AGW initially meant more storms. Then I remember recently it's been changed to reflect fewer storms but stronger ones?? Where have all the majors been this year. Okay now I'm confused!!!!!!!!


Most Majors are in August, September, and October. Hurricanes are after all, nick-named "September storms".


The theories about AGW's impacts on Hurricanes do not need to be worse every single year than the previous, etc. It only means the running average should get worse over time, for example, a theory might predict that a 5 year or 10 year mean should get worse and worse over time for different metrics.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
Quoting ncstorm:
according to the HPC, the remnants of Isaac will be crossing northern florida and riding up the east coast..
Yeah we will be getting the troughy tail but local mets are not real enthused about big rain chances. Still it will be better than the last few parched days, I hope.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
Quoting AussieStorm:

Who is calling it that?


The SPC is calling it Isaac in their Day 1 Outlook.
...NCNTRL GULF COAST...
LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM REPEAT DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE
ENHANCED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS SRN AL THIS MORNING WITH
POSSIBLE MCV EVOLVING COINCIDENT WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
ISAAC. STORM-SCALE AND NAM GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND
INDICATE THAT AREAS ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...FROM MS/AL BORDER WWD ACROSS MS TO ERN LA...WILL BECOME
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING ONLY THIN SCATTERED
CLOUDS ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S F.
WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LOW
LEVEL W-SWLYS TOPPED BY MODEST NLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
VEERED WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPSCALE GROWTH WITH SWD/SWWD CELL PROPAGATION AND AN
INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND HAZARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
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according to the HPC, the remnants of Isaac will be crossing northern florida and riding up the east coast..



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Quoting mobhurricane2011:
Looks like former Isaac wants to go visit south fl again, any chance this goes anywhere but fl? I don't think so but would like to hear other folks opinions also
I don't see how it possibly can with the big ULL rolling over the peninsula right now. I wish...I want more rain here on the east central FL coast.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
Quoting AussieStorm:


How about a two number system classification. Isaac was a Cat 1 wind wise but a cat 3 surge wise, so that would make it a Cat 1.S3

Ike was a Cat 2 on landfall but had a surge of a Cat 4, so that would make it a Cat 2.S4

Irene on the other had was a Cat 1 on landfall and only brought minimal surge so that would make it a Cat 1.S1

Agree or not????
Just a few more thoughts


It's better than what we have now with the SS scale.

TWC used to try to replicate those results based on size and forward motion, particularly when Steve Lyons and John Hope were there; remember the graphics where they would do a curve showing storm surge values and rainfall values based on size and forward movement speed? I guess things got too commercially and politicized after they were bought out, and they no longer do that.

Yeah, they have to make money and everything, so they need commercials else they wouldn't be in business, but we could do with a little less "local on the 8's" during a hurricane threat to concentrate more on details of expected threats unique to each storm and location.

Maybe they could work on better multi-threading of their broadcasts, so that they could drop a few local on the 8's for effected areas, and have a longer/more hurricane segment(s) for areas in the forecast cone, without disrupting normal broadcasting and coverage in other viewing areas.




None of the other national networks ever make an effort at a scientific representation of these effects, because they are far too political and more interested in covering the latest convention or $1000 plate dinner on a campaign trail, than they are in saving lives.

One UK broadcast actually had better coverage of Isaac than some national and world wide networks in the US.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
Quoting 7544:


the nws and local mets and us lol

Can you link that info please.

This is what I got from NWS Mobile, AL


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
800 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-0513 00-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
800 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL LONG DURATION RAINFALL
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
DAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.


No mention of Isaac.
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Looks like former Isaac wants to go visit south fl again, any chance this goes anywhere but fl? I don't think so but would like to hear other folks opinions also
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Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites(xxx^H^H^H No, wait, make that airplanes,or maybe even make that "ships"-Vessels that travel the Seas) since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Pre-satellite (and pre-aerial reconnaissance), I wonder how many tropical waves got classified as Tropical Storms since there was not a good way to check for a closed circulation except from scattered ground and ship observations?
I do not recall that possibility being taken seriously enough in the research recalibration of past Atlantic-basin named storms per year.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
Isaac just won't stop being strange... all the things he did when he as alive, and now he wants to live again? Jeez.
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53. 7544
Quoting AussieStorm:

Who is calling it that?


the nws and local mets and us lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
Looks like a decent chance for Issac to reform over the GOM. Leslie will continue to struggle before taking off. This week will be slow but by early next week, there will be alot of action.
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Quoting 7544:


why no they still calling it the remains of isaac so it will still be issac imo

Who is calling it that?
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Quoting SSideBrac:


Like the train of thought - I personally would like to see - WSRD

Wind, Surge, Rain, Duration

Just 2 additions to your initial suggestion, Whether this is even feasible at the moment, I do not know.
An additional facet that I always factor in is Tide state linked with forecast impact time as this can make a significant difference

What are the biggest killers of a Storm. Wind, Surge and possibly Rain. But to me, number 1 and 2 is Wind and Surge.
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afternoon all just in on lunch
rainy humid day here with thunder
at the moment
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48. 7544
Quoting AussieStorm:

no


why no they still calling it the remains of isaac so it will still be issac imo
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Quoting vlaming:


If it came to be, would it be named Isaac again?

no
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



LESLIE
11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 4
Location: 25.0�N 62.5�W
Moving: N at 3 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Arrrrghhh, Leslie is naked.
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Quoting BeanTech:


If that's your 'easy' system, I'd hate to see the more difficult one....




The computer model could have a small algorithm added to calculate that.

The processing power needed to do it is insignificant compared to that already used by the models. An optimized algorithm can probably be done in much less than one second, considering multi-threading, and the computer's total processing power. break each pressure ring into another thread and have a different processor run it...then add the totals to an accumulator...


I can do it by hand and calculator within a few minutes per storm. Finding the area of each ring by hand is the hardest part, but the computer models have that already in their data by default. They can retrieve it in absolute scientific units, based on the size of each of their "cells".


So a human need not even worry about the exact calculation, since it could be done so easily by the computer.

If I had access to the code, I could add this algorithm in probably a few minutes worth of coding...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
Quoting GetReal:



Low level clouds across the GOM are already beginning to flow into the remains of Isaac. He should not have much problem spinning back up once over the GOM. IMO


Link


If it came to be, would it be named Isaac again?
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57HR 12Z
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Quoting AussieStorm:


How about a two number system classification. Isaac was a Cat 1 wind wise but a cat 3 surge wise, so that would make it a Cat 1.S3

Ike was a Cat 2 on landfall but had a surge of a Cat 4, so that would make it a Cat 2.S4

Irene on the other had was a Cat 1 on landfall and only brought minimal surge so that would make it a Cat 1.S1

Agree or not????
Just a few more thoughts


Like the train of thought - I personally would like to see - WSRD

Wind, Surge, Rain, Duration

Just 2 additions to your initial suggestion, Whether this is even feasible at the moment, I do not know.
An additional facet that I always factor in is Tide state linked with forecast impact time as this can make a significant difference
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Storm has memory of how to form.
Quoting 7544:


yeap its looking good at this hour and with the hot waters in gulf hmmmmm can he be reborn afterall when will he get it in the gulf maybe tomorow ?

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Quoting GetReal:



It almost looks like a feeder band forming in the north central GOM from the mouth of the Mississippi River, northeast towards NW Florida...


Is that remants of Isaac? Gosh, he doesn't want to give up the ghost does he??
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Quoting 7544:


yeap its looking good at this hour and with the hot waters in gulf hmmmmm can he be reborn afterall when will he get it in the gulf maybe tomorow ?



It will be totally out over the GOM by tomorrow morning. As far as the ULL over the Bahamas, it will all depend upon how close they get to each other.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.