Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jascott1967:
Not quoted
Please, the children!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3142
Quoting ncstorm:


exactly..thats why my eye is still in the sky especially with Leslie and some of the models trying to bomb it out..earlier runs did have Leslie scraping the NC/VA coast..not saying that it will happen but reading my own NWS discussions about this so called strong low pressure trought that is supposed to stall and little confidence in the forecast dont sit well with me..



doesnt sit well with me either. I been ripped off too many times by these systems
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Quoting jascott1967:


Yet we give them human names.

Personally I would prefer naming them after the date they are designated. Ex. 9192012; if 2 are designated on the same date 9192012-A and 9192012-B. More sciencey.



9082010 was a beast storm then right?!?!?!

I wonder if you can even recognize that storm compared to how you can its real name.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Irene brought hurricane force winds to PR? I thought only TS winds were felt.
Irene form in to a hurricane after it pass PR and it doesnt even come close to Jeanne and Georges. I hope i got the names right lol
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Quoting icmoore:


Ever since Debby, the Texas storm :) I have a hard time believing in the timing and the turns until I see them happen.


exactly..thats why my eye is still in the sky especially with Leslie and some of the models trying to bomb it out..earlier runs did have Leslie scraping the NC/VA coast..not saying that it will happen but reading my own NWS discussions about this so called strong low pressure trough that is supposed to stall and little confidence in the forecast dont sit well with me..
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Goodness, this is the year of "The Stall".

We've had at least 4 storms now with obscenely slow forward speeds, or total stalls.

Debby
Isaac
Leslie
Michael


Any others? I forget.


You'd think an el nino should rip stuff apart, or drive it off to the north east very fast, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Instead, storms just sit around in the same spot for 2 or 3 days at a time and hardly move.


You can add Helene to that list. She basically went nowhere for almost 10 days.
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Quoting jascott1967:


Yet we give them human names.

Personally I would prefer naming them after the date they are designated. Ex. 9192012; if 2 are designated on the same date 9192012-A and 9192012-B. More sciencey.


Yeah, but not as fun :)
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Quoting ncstorm:


um humm..from the NWS to the NHC..this is reminding me of Earl where this trough was supposed to come and turn it well away from the conus


Ever since Debby, the Texas storm :) I have a hard time believing in the timing and the turns until I see them happen.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Storms do not have memory. They do not have a brain.


Yet we give them human names.

Personally I would prefer naming them after the date they are designated. Ex. 9192012; if 2 are designated on the same date 9192012-A and 9192012-B. More sciencey.
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Quoting Snowlover123:
...The IPCC has also ignored a large amount of evidence for an indirect solar forcing, and thus ignoring a more insensitive climate system.

Well the argument for direct solar forcing has certainly been rebuffed by nature, as has the "cosmic ray-cloud nuclei" theory.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3142
175. JLPR2
Quoting Vlad959810:

Hugo, Hortense, Georges and Irene


Irene brought hurricane force winds to PR? I thought only TS winds were felt.
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C>
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Cyclonic rotation clearly visible with remnants of Isaac.... Link
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172. JLPR2
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm starting to think the predictions for El Nino is a bust.


El Nino will form, but it seems it will be later and weaker than forecast and it seems to be turning into a Modiki style one.

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Quoting icmoore:


"Low confidence" seems to be a common theme these days with forecast...


um humm..from the NWS to the NHC..this is reminding me of Earl where this trough was supposed to come and turn it well away from the conus
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Quoting guygee:
Maybe. But before satellites there was active aerial reconnaissance and radio. It is pretty hard for seasoned captains and crew to miss the telltale swell from a hurricane that will propagate a great distance, then transmit swell height by radio, attracting reconnaissance. So maybe pre-aerial reconnaissance is a bigger dividing line than pre-satellite.

I have not seen a reference that considers the additional storms in the early records that may have been named while being tropical waves. So that adds a possible minus sign to the misses that I have not seen discussed.


The PDF you cited in your link (very good info, BTW, thanks) comments that the opening of the Panama Canal completely changed shipping lanes and left a large "hole" for ship observations, which were the only reliable method for reporting storms before aircraft and satellite. It also comments on the fact that TC's appeared to have been been shorter in duration, on average, before about 1945. It may be there were not as many long duration TC's before then, which means long period swells and peripheral winds may not have been noted by ships, if they were even in the right area. The same report cautions that, while there is an undeniable uptrend in the total number of TC's since 1878, it's not clear how much of that is related to multi-decade oscillations in peaks and troughs. It was also interesting that sea surface temperatures seem not to be a major factor in the number of TC's in a season.
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Quoting JLPR2:
The last two hurricanes to hit PR directly were Hugo(89) and Georges(98) formed in Sept 10 and Sept 15 respectively. So yes, September is the month I'm like an Eagle watching towards the East. XD

Hugo, Hortense, Georges and Irene
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Quoting ncstorm:
again..about the trough supposed to pull Leslie out to sea..

HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO WEATHER ON MON. EVOLUTION OF
5H TROUGH/CUTOFF WILL BE KEY AND THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS HAVE
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FAVORED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
TRACKS THE OPENING 5H LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE MON. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP LOCALLY BY LATE SUN NIGHT...LEAVING MON
DRIER AND RIGHT AROUND CLIMO TEMPERATURE WISE.


"Low confidence" seems to be a common theme these days with forecast...
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Quoting Snowlover123:


The IPCC has had substantial and meaningful criticism from many reputable scientists, and a very important IAC report. Dr. Chris Landsea is a very good example.

In addition, some of the IPCC scientists who participated in the report, do not agree with the IPCC's conclusions on climate change. Perhaps this is due to the fact that only 52 scientists actually signed the summary for policymakers.

The IPCC has also ignored a large amount of evidence for an indirect solar forcing, and thus ignoring a more insensitive climate system.
I see what you did there:

1) In your first paragraph, you used the squishy term "many credible", but failed to define what you mean by either "many" or "credible";

2) In your second paragraph, you failed to define what you mean by "IPCC scientists who participated in the report", (then linked to a document published by an organization funded almost entirely by the fossil fuel industry);

3) In your third paragraph, you made a completely false statement about the IPCC "ignoring a large amount of evidence" about solar forcing. As has been demonstrated to you and others ad nauseum over in Dr. Rood's blog and elsewhere, that's simply not true.

Yeah, I saw what you did there. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13473
Quoting RTSplayer:
Goodness, this is the year of "The Stall".

We've had at least 4 storms now with obscenely slow forward speeds, or total stalls.

Debby
Isaac
Leslie
Michael


Any others? I forget.


You'd think an el nino should rip stuff apart, or drive it off to the north east very fast, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Instead, storms just sit around in the same spot for 2 or 3 days at a time and hardly move.
I'm starting to think the predictions for El Nino is a bust.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Goodness, this is the year of "The Stall".

We've had at least 4 storms now with obscenely slow forward speeds, or total stalls.

Debby
Isaac
Leslie
Michael


Any others? I forget.


You'd think an el nino should rip stuff apart, or drive it off to the north east very fast, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Instead, storms just sit around in the same spot for 2 or 3 days at a time and hardly move.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
I finally gave in to the smartphone craze and got a Samsung S3. Crazy how insane technology is!

Sorry for the off topic post. : P
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
A Hurricane Watch May be Required For Bermuda Later Tonight
It's about 5 days from landfall... I would wait until tomorrow or Thursday.
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Quoting RTSplayer:

I can assure you, there appears to be no such policy implemented in this area.
Nobody inspects add-on patios or shed or garage foundations, as they don't require permits anyway (which is a good thing, we're already taxed and feed bad enough anyway).
We probably have 7,000 to 8,000 sq ft of concrete and foundations by the time you count the house, side walks, the drive way, and two sheds (one for tools and the other for livestock)....
I remember researching this topic during the time there was a big flood in Cedar Rapids, IA. Could be more of a regional thing, and FEMA does change their flood zones occasionally from what I have found out just looking around again today. If you have a mortgage and you get reclassified into a flood zone you will be forced to buy flood insurance, so changing the maps is a real hot political topic when it happens, and it seems it usually gets challenged in court.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3142
again..about the trough supposed to pull Leslie out to sea..

HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO WEATHER ON MON. EVOLUTION OF
5H TROUGH/CUTOFF WILL BE KEY AND THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS HAVE
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FAVORED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
TRACKS THE OPENING 5H LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE MON. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP LOCALLY BY LATE SUN NIGHT...LEAVING MON
DRIER AND RIGHT AROUND CLIMO TEMPERATURE WISE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ADMINS:

In case you didn't notice this before:

Evil clone site needs to be sued for copyright infringement
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Then maybe I won't give to much credence to the IPCC. I began reading up on it to but maybe I'll hold off. I just want something to link our recent tropical cyclone activity to climate change, if there even is any.


Linking hurricanes to Climate Change is actually a far more complicated process than one may think. Yes, with a warmer world, you would see an increase in Sea Surface Temperatures, which is a plus for hurricane formation. On the other hand, a warmer world would mean higher amounts of wind shear, and this is a negative for hurricane activity. There is also instability and dry air to contend with. How those will change with climate change also remains to be seen, and is highly uncertain.

Uncertainty has been hugely understated with attribution, feedbacks, and the storm response to climate change.
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Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday,

from our local NWS in wilmington, NC...if the trough is supposed to stall along the coast, wouldnt that let Leslie go further west?

000
FXUS62 KILM 041728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH
WILL STALL
BUT REMAIN NEARBY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND STALL ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. LONG PERIOD
SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS.
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156. JLPR2
Quoting 12george1:

Nope, the first of the two most recent would be Hortense (96).


Ah yes, forgot Hortense, I always do. :\
but Hortense formed on September 3 and from a CV low, still fits the description.
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That piece of energy over Georgia and Florida really is starting to look like an inverted tropical wave.

We had a few complexes come off the east coast and develop earlier this year, as well as in recent years, so re-development of this system might still be possible.

It already has at least some weak rotation and decent storms and radar presentation anyway.


It actually has better radar presentation than some named systems in terms of total ongoing thunderstorm and rainfall activity.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
6hours late, but the 6pm ATCF won't be out for at least half an hour, so... Note the difference in the distances traveled by Leslie on its 4th day (204miles) and its 5th day (88miles) as a TropicalStorm.

Positions from 3Sept.12pm through 4Sept12am have been reevaluated&altered at least twice apiece
4Sept.12pm's 23.6n62.7w - 23.8n62.8w - 24.1n62.7w - 24.5n62.5w - 24.8n62.5w are now the most recent positions. (The previous straightline projections have been corrected for this mapping)
All times in GMT
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie at 2Sept.6pm
KXFL-PalmCoast :: BDA-Bermuda

The kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 4th day as a TropicalStorm
The southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
3Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage3.4miles(5.4kilometres)ENEast of Bermuda
3Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for a passage 301miles(485kilometres)SWest of Bermuda
3Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage over OrmondBeach (right,KXFLblob)
3Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 133miles(214kilometres)WSWest of Bermuda
4Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 276miles(443kilometres)ESEast of Bermuda
4Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 340miles(548kilometres)ESEast of Bermuda
4Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie was heading for passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda

Copy&paste 32.382n64.592w, 29.2n68.478w, kxfl-29.404n81.094w, 31.431n66.919w, 31.196n60.17w, 30.299n59.418w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 21.3n60.9w- 22.1n61.4w- 22.8n61.6w- 23.4n62.2w- 23.6n62.7w, 23.6n62.7w-23.8n62.8w, 23.8n62.8w-24.1n62.7w, 24.1n62.7w-24.5n62.5w, 24.5n62.5w-24.8n62.5w, 24.5n62.5w-32.387n62.5w, 32.368n64.647w-32.387n62.5w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
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Quoting guygee:
Just because Landsea doesn't agree with the IPCC does not mean his papers are not cited by the IPCC. That is not how science works.


Lansea resigned from the IPCC because of his disagreement with their hypothesis that hurricanes would get worse with a warming world. He explains this as he reads his resignation letter in a recent documentary.
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A Hurricane Watch May be Required For Bermuda Later Tonight
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Quoting guygee:
These are all good points.
FEMA produces the maps that define the flood zones for the entire USA. FEMA has in place a "zero-change" policy that requires developers to create water drainage and retention systems to compensate for increased runoff. As a simple example, a neighbor of mine built a shed in his backyard. Code required him to dig a small ditch in his backyard to compensate for the increased runoff. As soon as the inspector left he filled in the ditch. This applies on a larger scale, as I see the ponds built around older developments silting in and turning into shallow swamps full of vegetation. There is a real lack of re-inspection and enforcement on the "zero-change" policy. Additionally, agriculture is exempted from the zero-change policy, and I do not think that FEMA changes the flood-zone maps when the big corn farmers tile their land to improve run-off in rainy years.



I can assure you, there appears to be no such policy implemented in this area.

Nobody inspects add-on patios or shed or garage foundations, as they don't require permits anyway (which is a good thing, we're already taxed and feed bad enough anyway).


We probably have 7,000 to 8,000 sq ft of concrete and foundations by the time you count the house, side walks, the drive way, and two sheds (one for tools and the other for livestock).


Since all of this is on the highest part of the property and there is no physical way to improve drainage since it slicks right off into the local creek or ditches anyway, there's nothing we could possibly do to off-set this extra water, which by my own calculations is 580 to 2000 cubic feet, assuming 1 to 3 inches of rain would have been absorbed in a 2.5 day event.

Further, we have even asked the parish to fix drainage issues that have existed on this road for decades, and they don't. When they installed a new culvert down the road, they did it wrong and didn't put it deep enough to keep good drainage, so we had to have them dig it back up and install it properly.

Further, the drainage on this side of the road is done wrong, so that water is forced in a direction contrary to the natural flow to the nearest creek, and then crosses under the road to the opposite side, which makes no sense whatever, because you could double the net flow rate by having the water drain the same direction on both sides of the road. Why this was done is still a mystery to me, and it's been that way all my life.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Snowlover123:

The IPCC has had substantial and meaningful criticism from many reputable scientists, and a very important IAC report. Dr. Chris Landsea is a very good example. ...
Just because Landsea doesn't agree with the IPCC does not mean his papers are not cited by the IPCC. That is not how science works.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3142
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Umm... Well that's unfortunate:

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Nice we have Michael...13/5/0



Convection looks like as if it is really trying to wrap around the center.. would not be surprised if it is stronger in the next update.
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Quoting guygee:
Sure. Start with the IPCC website. Download the reports, they are full of references to the scientific literature. Then read those papers, and read the references in those papers, then repeat until you are satisfied that you are really getting the full picture.

Just bothering to read the IPCC reports alone should give you a clear picture.

P.S. The "storms forming further north" is my own opinion based on observation. I have posted about it in this blog many times in the past. No, it does not coincide with anything in the IPCC reports to my knowledge.


The IPCC has had substantial and meaningful criticism from many reputable scientists, and a very important IAC report. Dr. Chris Landsea is a very good example.

In addition, some of the IPCC scientists who participated in the report, do not agree with the IPCC's conclusions on climate change. Perhaps this is due to the fact that only 52 scientists actually signed the summary for policymakers.

The IPCC has also ignored a large amount of evidence for an indirect solar forcing, and thus ignoring a more insensitive climate system.
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12z CMC at 180 hours

114 hours..the closest Leslie gets to the CONUS


180 hours..GOM
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Good afternoon.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, September 4th, with Video
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Quoting sar2401:
True, but it seems to me the large size of the Atlantic basin makes it much more likely that we missed many more storms than tropical waves that may have been mischaracterized as tropical storms. It's hard for me to imagine that two storms just this season, Joyce and Michael, would ever have shown up as tropical anythings before satellite and aircraft observations. Again, I don't know how you get a definitive answer to this puzzle, but it just seems intuitively likley that we missed a lot more storms than we saw, which should more than offset any storms which didn't have a true closed ciculation.
Maybe. But before satellites there was active aerial reconnaissance and radio. It is pretty hard for seasoned captains and crew to miss the telltale swell from a hurricane that will propagate a great distance, then transmit swell height by radio, attracting reconnaissance. So maybe pre-aerial reconnaissance is a bigger dividing line than pre-satellite.

I have not seen a reference that considers the additional storms in the early records that may have been named while being tropical waves. So that adds a possible minus sign to the misses that I have not seen discussed.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3142
Maxi and Mini looks like a drag race in the central Atlantic with a photo finsh. My money would be on Maxi even though I'm partial to the "Mike" name.
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.
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Quoting guygee:
Yes, what you have mentioned is well-covered in the scientific literature, for example,
GA Vecchi - On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity (PDF). But the other side of the coin is that satellites have allowed us to closely monitor when a closed circulation has formed. In the past, tropical waves with storm-force winds may have been named. That has not been considered, to my knowledge.


True, but it seems to me the large size of the Atlantic basin makes it much more likely that we missed many more storms than tropical waves that may have been mischaracterized as tropical storms. It's hard for me to imagine that two storms just this season, Joyce and Michael, would ever have shown up as tropical anythings before satellite and aircraft observations. Again, I don't know how you get a definitive answer to this puzzle, but it just seems intuitively likley that we missed a lot more storms than we saw, which should more than offset any storms which didn't have a true closed ciculation.
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Quoting JLPR2:
The last two hurricanes to hit PR directly were Hugo(89) and Georges(98) formed in Sept 10 and Sept 15 respectively. So yes, September is the month I'm like an Eagle watching towards the East. XD

Nope, the first of the two most recent would be Hortense (96).
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After Marco and Mike well just designate the M storm Miniature or the next one should be Minnie to be on the safe side.Leslie is starting to look a little better overall on the visible satellite. No real motion though maybe drifting NW.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.