Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Microwave shows great low-level structure for Leslie:



another Vince-like storm?
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Quoting RTSplayer:
There is some sort of circulation (at some layer) that is not being analized by the overlays on the maps.

What the heck is this?!

I know what the thing over Alabama, Georgia, and Florida is, and I know about the ULL over the Bahamas and SE Florida, but what the heck is THAT in the central Gulf, 24N 87.5W ?!




I LOOKS like a naked low pressure vortex a few degrees south of the High analyzed on the map overlay...

It shows up on visible ok, and just barely on shortwave and channel 4 unenhanced, but does not show up on water vapor at all (appears to be a featureless dry spot on water vapor).

Look at that...


Yes, the NHC discussion this morn mentioned that feature as a weak sfc low in mid Gulf... Until recent sat images revealed it, was hard to locate it...
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Quoting guygee:
An insult inside of a joke? Put a sock on it?


Not insulting you or even trying. Sorry if you felt I was. When I was in elementary school I was more interested in exploring the world around me than straining my eyes against a monitor trying to decipher weather computer models. Seems like a sad, lonely childhood. That's the only point I was trying to make but I was trying to make it w/o being so serious.
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Quoting LargoFl:
around Tampa bay..we can handle heavy rain huh.....
.
Tampa Bay area, Flood Warning
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Quoting RTSplayer:
There is some sort of circulation (at some layer) that is not being analized by the overlays on the maps.

What the heck is this?!

I know what the thing over Alabama, Georgia, and Florida is, and I know about the ULL over the Bahamas and SE Florida, but what the heck is THAT in the central Gulf, 24N 87.5W ?!




I LOOKS like a naked low pressure vortex a few degrees south of the High analyzed on the map overlay...

It shows up on visible ok, and just barely on shortwave and channel 4 unenhanced, but does not show up on water vapor at all (appears to be a featureless dry spot on water vapor).

Look at that...


Patrap pointed it this morning ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
There is some sort of circulation (at some layer) that is not being analized by the overlays on the maps.

What the heck is this?!

I know what the thing over Alabama, Georgia, and Florida is, and I know about the ULL over the Bahamas and SE Florida, but what the heck is THAT in the central Gulf, 24N 87.5W ?!




I LOOKS like a naked low pressure vortex a few degrees south of the High analyzed on the map overlay...

It shows up on visible ok, and just barely on shortwave and channel 4 unenhanced, but does not show up on water vapor at all (appears to be a featureless dry spot on water vapor).

Look at that...


looks like a lone tornado or waterspout
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon... Leslie looks pretty good I think, it doesn't have all the deep convection it's had but it looks more like a tropical cyclone than it has:



And the NHC may want to think again about 45mph being Michael's peak intensity:

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Quoting jascott1967:


Elementary school children reading weather blogs?!?! Oh the humanity!

Seriously, when I was that age I was outside playing with dirt. tells you how old I am.

Only person older than me is Grothar. Grothar's so old the candles on his birthday cake raises the Earth's temperature by 3 degrees.
3 degrees.?...More like 3 million
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Am I imagining it or does the photo of Leslie show the center of the high-altitude cloud circulation offset to the SE of the low level center (which it would be from the shear)?
As for alternative storm rating systems, how about having a wind speed rating and a size rating? Multiplying them would give a "power" rating.
About the issue raised in #150, it's generally much better for water to be absorbed than to drain off. High levels of runoff damage streams as well as worsen flooding. Increasing absorption also improves drought resistance and is a good way to adapt to the predicted decrease in frequency but increase in intensity of rainfall. There are many ways to improve absorption such as rain gardens, conservation landscaping, etc. I came up with something very simple - bore a hole with a ground auger (admittedly not so simple when I hit rocks) and fill it with wood chips (or tea bags or leaves or rolled-up newspapers or plant stems or anything porous). Any time you feel like it you can do another hole (or several).
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
The little engine that could:





Note that they are taken at different times. A mid-level eye feature is developing.


Can be seen on satellite as well.

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I haven't seen the 12z Euro posted so far. Is it comming out slow once again?
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Quoting RTSplayer:
There is some sort of circulation (at some layer) that is not being analized by the overlays on the maps.

What the heck is this?!

I know what the thing over Alabama, Georgia, and Florida is, and I know about the ULL over the Bahamas and SE Florida, but what the heck is THAT in the central Gulf, 24N 87.5W ?!




I LOOKS like a naked low pressure vortex a few degrees south of the High analyzed on the map overlay...

It shows up on visible ok, and just barely on shortwave and channel 4 unenhanced, but does not show up on water vapor at all (appears to be a featureless dry spot on water vapor).

Look at that...


Looks like a developing area of low pressure that's helping to drag our "blob" south. Probably only a couple of millibars difference from the surrounding environment, which is why it's not being intialized. It will be interesting to see what happens to it once our blob gets closer.
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Quoting Grothar:


Go ahead, blame me for GW.


Perhaps I read that too quickly... as I was gonna ask - Why, was it your deciding vote or missing chad that put him in office in 2000?
;)
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Microwave shows great low-level structure for Leslie:


That's beautiful.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32507
The little engine that could:





Note that they are taken at different times. A mid-level eye feature is developing.
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Quoting
Look at that...

Patrap mentioned something about that thing yesterday, but I didn't see any follow-up discussion on what it is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jascott1967:


Glad someone told me that last bit.

Seriously, I've almost drowned 4 times in my life. Once when I was a toddler...toddled out into the Houston Ship Channel. Second time when I was 10 I was swept out to sea off of Destin, FL during a severe undertow. Twice more (Guadalupe river during a flood and once trying to swim across a man made lake - only thing that saved me was an underwater drainage pipe just under my feet when I had given up).
yes people need to take these warnings seriously alright
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40821
Quoting Grothar:


Go ahead, blame me for GW.


You are the Weather God.
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Quoting calkevin77:


Hi GT. I believe that unless the system retains definitive and continuous tropical characteristics throughout its lifespan, it is treated as an entirely new system and therefore would get a new name. Not sure if Isaac is considered a remnant low or post-tropical but I’m thinking that the emerging storm will have a new name. I’m not 100% sure though but great question.


Assuming this trough/low develops into a named storm, which not at all certain, it will get a new name. We've already seen that his year, when the remnants of Ernesto got back out into the Gulf and was renamed Helene.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Bad news. (Possible) Oil has resurfaced thanks to Isaac. This picture is from an Alabama beach.
Ah, Deepwater Horizon; the gift that keeps on giving...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is some sort of circulation (at some layer) that is not being analized by the overlays on the maps.

What the heck is this?!

I know what the thing over Alabama, Georgia, and Florida is, and I know about the ULL over the Bahamas and SE Florida, but what the heck is THAT in the central Gulf, 24N 87.5W ?!




I LOOKS like a naked low pressure vortex a few degrees south of the High analyzed on the map overlay...

It shows up on visible ok, and just barely on shortwave and channel 4 unenhanced, but does not show up on water vapor at all (appears to be a featureless dry spot on water vapor).

Look at that...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting pottery:

LOLOL.

It's all good thought, right ?


Right. Even if "it's all good, though".:>)
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around Tampa bay..we can handle heavy rain huh.....
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SEA BREEZE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH INTERIOR AREAS HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE POOLS UP ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE AND NOT SEVERE AS IT MOVES INTO
THE WEST COAST OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40821
Quoting LargoFl:
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

ALC131-042000-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120904T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
WILCOX AL-
1146 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
WILCOX COUNTY...

AT 1135 AM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF WILCOX COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF WILCOX COUNTY...WITH AS MUCH
AS 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE COUNTY.
HIGHWAY 21 NEAR THE LOWNDES COUNTY LINE IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
ONGOING RAINFALL RATES OF NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ONLY
EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT...AGAIN MAINLY OVER EASTERN
WILCOX COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOYKIN... YELLOW BLUFF... PINE APPLE...
OAK HILL... CATHERINE... CAMDEN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER CROSSES A ROAD. TURN AROUND - DON`T DROWN!<BR>


Glad someone told me that last bit.

Seriously, I've almost drowned 4 times in my life. Once when I was a toddler...toddled out into the Houston Ship Channel. Second time when I was 10 I was swept out to sea off of Destin, FL during a severe undertow. Twice more (Guadalupe river during a flood and once trying to swim across a man made lake - only thing that saved me was an underwater drainage pipe just under my feet when I had given up).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jascott1967:


Elementary school children reading weather blogs?!?! Oh the humanity!

Seriously, when I was that age I was outside playing with dirt. tells you how old I am.

Only person older than me is Grothar. Grothar's so old the candles on his birthday cake raises the Earth's temperature by 3 degrees.

3 degrees a year, times 847 (or so years) is over 2400 degrees. Or something.

He should be Tarred and Feathered......
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Microwave shows great low-level structure for Leslie:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jascott1967:
Elementary school children reading weather blogs?!?! Oh the humanity!

Seriously, when I was that age I was outside playing with dirt. tells you how old I am.

Only person older than me is Grothar. Grothar's so old the candles on his birthday cake raises the Earth's temperature by 3 degrees.
An insult inside of a joke? Put a sock on it?
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BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
211 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012

.NOW...THROUGH 330 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS
TO 35 MPH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE A BIT COOLER.

$$

TES
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40821
Quoting DocNDswamp:


Hey MS Wx,
No surprise is it? Knew when Dr Jeff asked his #1 question the answer would come soon... Now those appear to be real multiple BLOBS, unquestionably... Scoop 'em up and run 'em to the refinery, heck even stale Gulf oil gotta be better grade than that tar-sand crap from Canada!
;)



Definitely no surprise. And I agree, that is what you call black gold. I'd be scooping it up. LOL.
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Quoting Bielle:

Indeed, I did change it too late. I need to remember the beady eyes and stupendous reflexes on this blog.

LOLOL.

It's all good thought, right ?
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Quoting jascott1967:


Elementary school children reading weather blogs?!?! Oh the humanity!

Seriously, when I was that age I was outside playing with dirt. tells you how old I am.

Only person older than me is Grothar. Grothar's so old the candles on his birthday cake raises the Earth's temperature by 3 degrees.


Go ahead, blame me for GW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
133 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

ALC013-041-042130-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FA.W.0011.120904T1833Z-120904T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BUTLER AL-CRENSHAW AL-
133 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 126 PM CDT...A LONG DURATION OF RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT WATER RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. WHILE THE HEAVY
RAIN IS COMING TO AN END...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AS THESE CREEKS AND STREAMS CREST.
THIS WILL CAUSE CONTINUED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUTLEDGE... PETREY... LUVERNE...
I65 AND AL 185... I65 AND AL 10... GREENVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
CROSSES THE ROAD.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40821
Quoting E46Pilot:
They are talking about a bunch of rain coming to south FL by weeks end. I just got done putting a huge tarp on my roof.
You guys do not need it. I could use more rain north of you but apparently not in the cards:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012
[...]

THU-SUN...BOTH THE 04/00Z GFS AND 03/12Z ECMWF SHOWING A SIMILAR TREND IN LIFTING THE UPPER LOW AWAY FROM FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING PART OF A LARGE AREA OF WEST TO EAST LOWER PRESSURE WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE WELL EAST IN THE ATLANTIC. A COMBINATION OF THIS LARGE AREA OF WEST TO EAST LOWER PRESSURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SATURDAY KEEPS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCES MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY STRONG MID LEVEL SUPPORT/WEAK VORTICITY AND LATE...IF ANY SEA BREEZE MOVEMENT INLAND...PLAN TO KEEP POP AT THEIR CLIMO 30/40 PERCENT LATE AFTERNOON.
[...]
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Quoting pottery:
HAHA..
you changed it, but TOO LATE !

heheheheheh

Indeed, I did change it too late. I need to remember the beady eyes and stupendous reflexes on this blog.
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Quoting GetReal:



What is left of the center of Isaac????


The piece that's broken off and is headed south. Finally got a break in the rain here in central AL but more storms are forming in north AL. We've had quite a bit of flash flooding, particularly in the Selma area, where storms always seem to hit first and last the longest. The area around my rig looked like a lake this morning. We've gone from ground as dry as concrete to squishy in two days. :)
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Blob Alert!

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Quoting jascott1967:
END/FOGARTY

They mispelled John Fogerty's last name wrong. I was wondering what happened to CCR.
getting out on the highway
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40821
END/FOGARTY

They mispelled John Fogerty's last name. I was wondering what happened to CCR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

ALC131-042000-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120904T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
WILCOX AL-
1146 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
WILCOX COUNTY...

AT 1135 AM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF WILCOX COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF WILCOX COUNTY...WITH AS MUCH
AS 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE COUNTY.
HIGHWAY 21 NEAR THE LOWNDES COUNTY LINE IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
ONGOING RAINFALL RATES OF NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ONLY
EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT...AGAIN MAINLY OVER EASTERN
WILCOX COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOYKIN... YELLOW BLUFF... PINE APPLE...
OAK HILL... CATHERINE... CAMDEN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER CROSSES A ROAD. TURN AROUND - DON`T DROWN!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40821
Quoting MississippiWx:
Bad news. (Possible) Oil has resurfaced thanks to Isaac. This picture is from an Alabama beach.



Hey MS Wx,
No surprise is it? Knew when Dr Jeff asked his #1 question the answer would come soon... Now those appear to be real multiple BLOBS, unquestionably... Scoop 'em up and run 'em to the refinery, heck even stale Gulf oil gotta be better grade than that tar-sand crap from Canada!
;)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting E46Pilot:
They are talking about a bunch of rain coming to south FL by weeks end. I just got done putting a huge tarp on my roof.
yeah we will see how this goes end of the week..its dumping tons of rain on the northeasten gulf coast states now..flood warnings up already
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40821
Quoting scottsvb:


That's good news... more of that to wash ashore..the better for the water and we can clean it up easier


Unless of course, it's your beach that's effected and your way of life and ability to feed your family is effected
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Quoting guygee:
I dislike having my dialog reduced to the lowest common denominator set by the presence of children, but actually the presence of children on this blog is not unplanned at all. It is expected that elementary-school-age children are reading and oftentimes participating on this blog.


Elementary school children reading weather blogs?!?! Oh the humanity!

Seriously, when I was that age I was outside playing with dirt. tells you how old I am.

Only person older than me is Grothar. Grothar's so old the candles on his birthday cake raises the Earth's temperature by 3 degrees.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the Canada Hurricane Center.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1:01 PM ADT TUESDAY
4 SEPTEMBER 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= ATLANTIC PROVINCES.

FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY.

EARLY DISCUSSION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AND POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE IN EASTERN CANADA.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==DISCUSSION==
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL BE MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE THIS WEEK. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING LESLIE TO ONLY TRAVEL 500 KILOMETRES
IN 4 DAYS WHICH IS BASICALLY A PERSON'S AVERAGE SPEED OF WALKING.
WITH SUCH A SLOW SPEED OF TRAVEL AND THE FACT THAT THE STORM IS STILL
IN ITS ORGANIZING STAGE, THERE IS MUCH (MORE THAN USUAL) UNCERTAINTY
IN THE PREDICTED PATH/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT LESLIE COULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH
THE LARGE 'BERMUDA HIGH' AND ACELLERATE TOWARD EASTERN CANADA WITH A
RANGE OF TRACK SCENARIOS FROM MAINE TO OFFSHORE NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE MIDDLE OF THESE TRACK FORECASTS IS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND - BUT EVEN
THAT 'AVERAGE' WILL LIKELY SHIFT BY HUNDREDS OF KILOMETERS OVER TIME
WITH EACH NEW RUN OF SIMULATIONS. IF LESLIE MAKES IT TO EASTERN
CANADA, IT WOULD NOT LIKELY DO SO UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL UPDATE THIS BULLETIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK IF LESLIE CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND WILL PROVIDE INTERPRETATION OF THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
AND DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY.

VISIT http://WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.H TML (ALL IN LOWER
CASE) FOR THE LATEST HURRICANE TRACK MAP.

END/FOGARTY
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They are talking about a bunch of rain coming to south FL by weeks end. I just got done putting a huge tarp on my roof.
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Quoting GetReal:



What is left of the center of Isaac????


Rotation is Evident.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I see the ECMWF is running late again. Also, if that system in the GOM develops will it retain the name Isaac or will it get a new name?


Hi GT. I believe that unless the system retains definitive and continuous tropical characteristics throughout its lifespan, it is treated as an entirely new system and therefore would get a new name. Not sure if Isaac is considered a remnant low or post-tropical but I’m thinking that the emerging storm will have a new name. I’m not 100% sure though but great question.
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Some very serious rain here..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40821
Quoting MississippiWx:
Bad news. (Possible) Oil has resurfaced thanks to Isaac. This picture is from an Alabama beach.



It's not clear to me from that picture if it's actually oil, but it wouldn't be surpising if it was. Long before BP, oil and tar balls would regularly land on Gulf coast beaches after a storm. There are over 2,000 known natural oil seeps in the Gulf, and they are aways putting some oil in the Gulf. If it is oil, you can be sure that the DNA is being sampled so the cleanup cost can be added to BP's tab. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Link


Thanks. It will be interesting to see what this stuff really is (it obviously doesn't look good visually.) I haven't been able to find any other news on this story as of yet.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1208

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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