Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

Share this Blog
41
+

Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 337 - 287

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

337. VR46L
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The GFS has been consistently showing this storm, but it's been all over the place with possible landfall locations.

18z yesterday had South Florida:



0z last night had a western Gulf (probably Mexico) storm:



6z this morning had a Bermuda storm:



12z had twins, with one hugging the East Coast:



Remind you of a certain storm called Isaac, first couple of days ,It appeared it was the north east storm of DOOM ,then it was Florida wipe out DOOM for a few days, then it was Houston DOOM ,then it switched back to Florida DOOM ,until it finally moved west to DOOM Panhandle a couple of days, and finally it was NOLA.
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
Quoting GTcooliebai:
We're not there yet with long range models, but I presume if we keep making improvements we will be there one of these days.


Yeah, I know, but I'm just slightly younger than Gro. I think I'll be pushing up daisies long before we get a reliable 384 hour model.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspiring2012:
If Issac were to reenter the gulf, not even saying it would develop, where would the steering currents take it?


East....or west...possibly south....maybe it does a loop and comes back for ribs in Alabama. ) Really, I don't think anyone can give more than a WAG. Look at the crazy GFS models posted by MAweatherboy1 if you want to see the range that the GFS alone takes it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


An African blob?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38478
Quoting sar2401:


That's what I mean about long range models, especially for non-existent storms. Talk about all over the place...and presumably from the same data. Bizarre.
We're not there yet with long range models, but I presume if we keep making improvements we will be there one of these days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38478
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The GFS has been consistently showing this storm, but it's been all over the place with possible landfall locations.

18z yesterday had South Florida:



0z last night had a western Gulf (probably Mexico) storm:



6z this morning had a Bermuda storm:



12z had twins, with one hugging the East Coast:



That's what I mean about long range models, especially for non-existent storms. Talk about all over the place...and presumably from the same data. Bizarre.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Issac were to reenter the gulf, not even saying it would develop, where would the steering currents take it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Couple more thoughts, Isaac remnant...
In similar fashion, Hurricane Danny in 1997 formed from a strong mid-latitude MCS type feature that dropped from Plains / Midwest across Louisiana into the N Gulf in July...

Not concerned with the mid-Gulf naked sfc low, should drift away... Actually, H Rita's remnant also did a loop around back into the Gulf, but was no more than a ghost swirl as tracked SW toward E MX, dissipated...
I would concur with several previous observations on Isaac remnants, taking a gander at GFS analysis / forecasts since Sep 1 - appears over past 24 hrs as it tracked over KY, we did have a split as some of the vorticity broke off, caught in the westerlies to stream into / over the NE... while the primary low-mid vort center remains intact, dropping SWD over AL... most likely being steered between the TX-OK high and the ULL over the Bahamas... 12Z analysis indicates could become organized enough a low center, perhaps as a TD in 24-36 hrs thru Friday, however several issues could come into play to maybe disallow much - Some N / NE shear may be present... Related to that, also shows by that period significant misalignment of the sfc low / 850 vort and the mid level vort, as latter drifts a bit more SWD becoming diffuse / dissipating - the 500mb wind field does not look conducive as modeled.. with the sfc low system continuing to weaken by time the frontal trof begins to lift / absorb it E / NE on Saturday... During entire period as for upper levels, the TX-OK ridge on it's eastern extent will erode / retrograde WWD / the Bahamas ULL is forecast to slowly lift N / NNE, then quickly get shoved NEWD by Sat with approaching strong trof.

Another fly in the ointment that might thwart any significant development, if alignment / possible shear issues weren't enough, is a large surrounding swath of dry, subsident air @ 700-400 mb levels the GFS forecast shows by late tomorrow, onward... LOL, sounds rather familiar... Of course, worthy of watching... Hopefully for all, we'll just be viewing a weak, leftover tropical novelty of a feature in the NE Gulf next couple days... Then, hello cooler, drier air by Sunday / as early next week begins!

I saw enough of Isaac the 1st time, up close and personal, having spent over 4 hours within it's eye... Darn fool just wouldn't leave! Figure he must have been sampling all the great Cajun cooking... ;)

Work calls,
Later!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


kinda weird for having so many storms and no majors...
I'll take it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
geez im caught between two spins lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38478
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


However,still with no major canes.IMO,there will be at least 2-3 of those between September/October.


kinda weird for having so many storms and no majors...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting guygee:

No problem, just blogging, bbl. Cheers!

P.S. I have been a weather nerd since like kindergarten, I would definitely have been all over this site.


I don't know if I was a weather nerd but I did enjoy the thunder, lightening, cooling breezes and rains from a summer thunderstorm as much then as I do now.

I don't think I would frequent this site as much as I would have the NWS and local radars. The terminology and the abbreviations would have been frustrating and I was so self conscious about my own intelligence back then I refused to ask questions for fear of being considered dumb.

As a sidebar to the discussion, I don't think what I wrote was nearly as inappropriate as what the kids today see and hear on TV and video games. However, if it offended anyone, I sincerely apologize.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


However,still with no major canes.IMO,there will be at least 2-3 of those between September/October.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
322. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting sar2401:


I'm assuming that's correct, but it amazing to me that a remnant low in south Indiana yesterday, and appears to be in north MS today, can develop this kind of energy with nothing obvious around to intensify the low. It seems like Isaac just doesn't want to die. We needed the rain in Alabama, but it can stop now any time it wants to. :)


I went back & inserted a two day movie so everyone can see it come down from IL/IN. Judging by that & watching the evolution in the models it's only going to be about 1/3 of Isaac plus some trough that is beginning to interact with it.

Hope you dry out a little.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 384 hours


I wish there was a GFS-type model that could tell me what the stock market will do 16 days from now. :)

Seriously, I'm sure some of you folks who always seem to have studies at your fingertips can tell me - what is the average path accuracy (forget intensity) of a model like the GFS that's 16 days out? Just from my own anecdotal evidence, it seems like these models generally keep the storms in the same basin, but that's about it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF NAMES!!!!

We just have 8 names to go...and Sept. is just starting and some models are forecasting three more storms...


su much for an el nino year...1 more storm and this becomes an above average activity season.


However,still with no major canes.IMO,there will be at least 2-3 of those between September/October.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Update coming up for GFS:

"Beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) model
run on Wednesday, September 5, 2012, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations will implement
a fix to the Land Surface Model used to drive the Global Forecast
System (GFS). This correction is expected to improve the cool
and moist bias in the near surface air temperature and moisture
fields during the warm season."

Link
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 364 hours has a storm hugging the east coast all the way up..its NOT leslie

The GFS has been consistently showing this storm, but it's been all over the place with possible landfall locations.

18z yesterday had South Florida:



0z last night had a western Gulf (probably Mexico) storm:



6z this morning had a Bermuda storm:



12z had twins, with one hugging the East Coast:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7781
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF NAMES!!!!

We just have 8 names to go...and Sept. is just starting and some models are forecasting three more storms...


su much for an el nino year...1 more storm and this becomes an above average activity season.
We still have the Spice Girls
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38478
WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF NAMES!!!!

We just have 8 names to go...and Sept. is just starting and some models are forecasting three more storms...


su much for an el nino year...1 more storm and this becomes an above average activity season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
The trick was to put crimped up aluminum foil on the rabbit ears.


LOL I remember..I was the youngest of 4 and remember my Dad's excitement of going from 2 channels to 3 channels!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PENN STATE
FOREST...OR 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOMS RIVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PENN STATE FOREST AND CHATSWORTH BY 320 PM EDT...
WARREN GROVE BY 330 PM EDT...
BROOKVILLE...BAMBER LAKE AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARNEGAT BY 345
PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38478
John is dead... I can't imagine why.



EP, 10, 2012090418, , BEST, 0, 240N, 1173W, 30, 1006, PT
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7781
12Z ECMWF:

@48HR:


@72HR:


@96HR:


@120HR:
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Quoting Skyepony:


That is Isaac remnants.


I'm assuming that's correct, but it amazing to me that a remnant low in south Indiana yesterday, and appears to be in north MS today, can develop this kind of energy with nothing obvious around to intensify the low. It seems like Isaac just doesn't want to die. We needed the rain in Alabama, but it can stop now any time it wants to. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS at 384 hours
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38478
Quoting icmoore:


I'm so old the only monitor I had was the screen of a black and white TV with rabbit ears on top :)
The trick was to put crimped up aluminum foil on the rabbit ears.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
3 degrees.?...More like 3 million..:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gippgig:
How does the size of Michael compare with Marco? What's the smallest named storm?
Marco had a gale-force wind radius of 12 miles. Michael has a radius of about 35 miles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
305. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting sar2401:


I've been thinking that for the last two days. ) There's now a new blobette forming north of us that should get here later this afternoon. Very odd for Alabama in September when there's no tropical storm around. Very stable air, almost no CAPE, and bulk shear is less than nothing...yet these storms keep generating and forming into these blobs. I'd swear we were looking at outer rainbands of a tropical storm if I didn't know better.


That is Isaac remnants.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is an interesting concept. I wonder if this could be then worked into "categories", which would give the general public an idea of the range and types of damage to expect.

What I've been seeing recently is a trending towards larger storms with lower wind speed but greater potential for damage due to water [i.e. rain / surge flooding].

Maybe the "stronger" will be in terms of the latter kind of impact.

It would also be quite interesting, and I suspect not all that unprecedented, if we see three majors in Sep-Oct...



What would be the draw back of just re-adjusting the Saffron Simpson Hurricane scale based on air pressure rather than average wind speed?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS at 364 hours has a storm hugging the east coast all the way up..its NOT leslie
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38478
Quoting MississippiWx:
Bad news. (Possible) Oil has resurfaced thanks to Isaac. This picture is from an Alabama beach.

Oh No
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro..North America..

72 hours


96 hours


120 hours

Do u have an expanded view that includes Michael?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
Here's an easy system.

1, Start with 1015mb.

2, Find the approximate area covered by each full Millibar of pressure in square kilometers, but not overlapping stronger(lower) pressure values. i.e. the area of each amorphous "donut" of pressure lines around the CoC.

3, For each partition, subtract forecasted landfall intensity in pressure from 1015.

4, Square the result of the pressure subtraction for each partition and multiply by that partition's size.

5, Add all of the partitions.

6, Do the same for historical storms.

7, Compare the results of the forecast to actual values of other real hurricanes.


This would solve both the size and intensity issues by combining them in a multiplicative index directly related to size and pressure.

The initial values would be very large, but could be scaled down and formatted to manageable numbers by simply dropping the last N digits.

Then you would compare analog landfalls in the public broadcast.

This would give an exact, scientific value to the instantaneous severity of the forecast landfall, rather than "guesswork" on vague notions of size and wind speed.

In this system, a 940mb ring would be given 33% more points than a 950mb ring of the same size.

The score would be expressed in "scientific" units of (mb^2)*(km^2), which has an absolute meaning, rather than vague concepts, and is similar to the IKE value, except it represents an instantaneous severity.


ACE is truly useless for forecasting, and is only useful for ranking a storm after the fact.

Systems like HSI or the one I just made up on the spot, would be excellent as forecasting tools, because they can be predicted within certain margins of error, and they can be related to instantaneous destructive potential, rather than cumulative effects over long times (which truly are meaningless in most cases since most ACE is aquired out over the open water where it effects almost nothing..)
This is an interesting concept. I wonder if this could be then worked into "categories", which would give the general public an idea of the range and types of damage to expect.

Quoting TomballTXPride:
I thought AGW initially meant more storms. Then I remember recently it's been changed to reflect fewer storms but stronger ones?? Where have all the majors been this year. Okay now I'm confused!!!!!!!!
What I've been seeing recently is a trending towards larger storms with lower wind speed but greater potential for damage due to water [i.e. rain / surge flooding].

Maybe the "stronger" will be in terms of the latter kind of impact.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I hear you. Issac was actually enough as far as impacts and lives lost....A high grade slow moving TS can do more damage than a fast moving Cat 1-2. I am sorry for you loss; I suffered similar impacts (house flooding) from TS Allison a few years back and was lucky that the flood insurance adjuster did not haggle with us and wrote a nice check.

I was referring to the usual number of majors we normally get in a year (I think 2-3 were forecast this year) and the fact that fast speeds (20mph plus at times), dry air, and current sheer issues have keep the majority of the storms in check at TS levels. Goes to show that no one can exactly predict what will happen in any given year because of all of the potential, and sometimes unexpected, "x" factors.
It would also be quite interesting, and I suspect not all that unprecedented, if we see three majors in Sep-Oct...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Would it be safe to speculate that the blob entering the N. GOM from AL will be declared an invest tomorrow sometime??? I believe that it will be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It looks like a possible depression in the Gulf could be very realistic.

With that "thing" already there and the convection remnants from Isaac moving south to moisten up the environment, I guess it could get organized into TD or maybe even TS strength before it hits land.


It is embedded between teh 1014 and 1016 MSLP, and is embedded inside a high, at least according to the steering maps, so it looks like until it intensifies (or dies) it should cut a loop in the Gulf and start heading back to the NE, eventually, if anything remains of it. Which I think puts it right under the convection at some point in a day or two.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting jascott1967:
Not insulting you or even trying. Sorry if you felt I was. When I was in elementary school I was more interested in exploring the world around me than straining my eyes against a monitor trying to decipher weather computer models. Seems like a sad, lonely childhood. That's the only point I was trying to make but I was trying to make it w/o being so serious.

No problem, just blogging, bbl. Cheers!
Quoting jascott1967:
I saw what you did there. You added a happy face at the end of an insult as if it were a comment condom.
Quoting guygee:
An insult inside of a joke? Put a sock on it?

P.S. I have been a weather nerd since like kindergarten, I would definitely have been all over this site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jascott1967:


Not insulting you or even trying. Sorry if you felt I was. When I was in elementary school I was more interested in exploring the world around me than straining my eyes against a monitor trying to decipher weather computer models. Seems like a sad, lonely childhood. That's the only point I was trying to make but I was trying to make it w/o being so serious.


I'm so old the only monitor I had was the screen of a black and white TV with rabbit ears on top :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z Euro..North America..

72 hours


96 hours


120 hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How does the size of Michael compare with Marco? What's the smallest named storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Hi Gro. Is raining in parts of the Saharan Dessert and those two are going to be the next Cyclones in North Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Michael to 50 mph... I think this little one could make it to 75 mph. They are little but could do things fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Blob Alert!



I've been thinking that for the last two days. ) There's now a new blobette forming north of us that should get here later this afternoon. Very odd for Alabama in September when there's no tropical storm around. Very stable air, almost no CAPE, and bulk shear is less than nothing...yet these storms keep generating and forming into these blobs. I'd swear we were looking at outer rainbands of a tropical storm if I didn't know better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I haven't seen the 12z Euro posted so far. Is it comming out slow once again?


It doesn't come out slowly. Europeans are very precise. It will come out soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND WRN WI...NERN IA...SERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041833Z - 042030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIOR BY 20-21Z WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE MS
RIVER AND TRAILING SWWD INTO NWRN IA. STRONG HEATING PERSISTS AND CU
FIELDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOD TO UPPER 80S F WILL ERODE ALL CIN...AND SFC
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE QUITE STEEP...AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SHOULD SUPPORT LONG LIVED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. AS SUCH...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS STORMS PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COLD
DOWNDRAFTS AND BEGIN TO EXPAND AND FORWARD PROPAGATE LATER TODAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
east central Burlington County in southern New Jersey...
southern Ocean County in southern New Jersey...

* until 345 PM EDT

* at 309 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Penn State
Forest... or 24 miles southwest of Toms River... moving northeast at
20 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Penn State Forest and Chatsworth by 320 PM EDT...
Warren Grove by 330 PM EDT...
Brookville... Bamber Lake and 7 miles northwest of Barnegat by 345
PM EDT...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 337 - 287

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
75 °F
Mostly Cloudy