Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

Share this Blog
41
+

Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1237 - 1187

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

I hate Calculus... anyway, just checking in during school's lunch. How's Leslie doing?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7912
A 0944 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS DISPLACED ABOUT
12-18 NMI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.3/72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES...AND LESLIE IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE EASTWARD-TILTED VORTEX COLUMN.


In a pig's eye.

You don't blend 55 with 72, and arrive at 60 kts - particularly not when the two lower estimates are hours old, and the higher estimate has been rapidly climbing in the interim. The vortex column is tilted, but there's no particular reason to think that the winds aren't hurricane strength.

I understand that there's no particular hurry on the upgrade here, because it'll be days still before Leslie slams into Bermuda. But it's gonna be a massive, nasty storm. And as far as I'm concerned, it's already a 'cane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1235. Gearsts
Quoting SLU:
NO WAY!

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 5
Location: 25.7�N 62.8�W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Eating alot of dry air, look at the Outflow boundary.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1234. LargoFl
going to be one interesting weekend here in florida huh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1233. SLU
.... THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES...AND LESLIE IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE EASTWARD-TILTED VORTEX COLUMN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1232. vlaming
Quoting BrickellBreeze:




GFS is a reliable model.


Even without its Isaac history, it would be pretty amazing for that storm to develop, there can't be many that came off the gulf coast and developed. And if the GFS is correct, it might hit Florida twice and end up in the Gulf again ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has anyone else seen this?
Link
It would seem that Hurricane Isaac got in to the archeological salvage business for a minute.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1230. SLU
NO WAY!

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 5
Location: 25.7N 62.8W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012

THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING LESLIE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A BANDING EYE FEATURE TO DEVELOP
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A 0944 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS DISPLACED ABOUT
12-18 NMI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.3/72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES...AND LESLIE IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE EASTWARD-TILTED VORTEX COLUMN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02 BASED ON MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SLOWLY
ALONG A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR
SO DUE TO A BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.
AFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST...
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE LESLIE TOWARD THE NORTH BY 96
HOURS...AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND
REMAINS NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE
CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

LESLIE IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR
THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HOURS. THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR IS
COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS VERY SLOW FORWARD
SPEED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LESLIE COULD INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY THAN
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN LEVEL OFF IN 72-96
HOURS DUE TO UPWELLING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SYMPTOMS OF NEGATIVE FEEDBACK CAUSED BY THE GFS MODEL 200 MB
WARMING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS...ECMWF... UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS
GENERATE A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THIS STRENGTHENING TREND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED IN THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 25.7N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 26.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 26.8N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 27.2N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 29.0N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 32.4N 64.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 10/1200Z 39.5N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1228. 7544
Quoting BrickellBreeze:




GFS is a reliable model.


loop de loop has any storm taken this path before interesting
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6695
No hurricane for now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CloudGatherer:
At the moment, UW-CIMSS sees Leslie as a solid Category One hurricane:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 979.2mb/ 74.6kt
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE


SSD is a little more skeptical, seeing it as a high-end tropical storm, but its estimate is pushing five hours old:
05/1145 UTC 25.9N 62.4W T3.5/3.5 LESLIE -- Atlantic


Am I crazy to think they'll upgrade at 11am?



no...I thought it too...but its 70 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1225. Gearsts
Dry air inside the circulation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At the moment, UW-CIMSS sees Leslie as a solid Category One hurricane:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 979.2mb/ 74.6kt
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE


SSD is a little more skeptical, seeing it as a high-end tropical storm, but its estimate is pushing five hours old:
05/1145 UTC 25.9N 62.4W T3.5/3.5 LESLIE -- Atlantic


Am I crazy to think they'll upgrade at 11am?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90l.multicenters.one.s.e.of.new.orleans.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT WED 05 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-109


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
FLIGHT ONE --NASA872--
A. 07/0130Z
B. NASA872 0112A LESLIE SURVEILLANCE AV-6
C. 06/1900Z
D. 26.9N 63.3W
E. 07/0130Z TO 07/1130Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
G. IP 30.1N 81.2W OUTFLOW LAYER AXIS CYCLONIC S TO N

2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 06/1800Z D. 28.5N 87.8W
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
C. 06/1700Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 07/1200Z IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.
B. FIX OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 07/1800Z NEAR 26.6N 63.2W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dabirds:
Almost looks like it's getting a hook in Fayette Co., on 51 around Ramsey


Yep, they have Tornado Warnings posted for them.

"Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
921 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

ILC051-135-051445-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-120905T1445Z/
MONTGOMERY IL-FAYETTE IL-
921 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND
EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 919 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAMSEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. THE PUBLIC REPORTED TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN NEAR WITT AS THE STORM PASSED.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAMSEY AND BAYLE CITY.

LAT...LON 3907 8898 3916 8939 3933 8935 3931 8914
3931 8913 3922 8913 3922 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 282DEG 16KT 3922 8918

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN"



I can also just about also guarantee these storms will nulify any chance for afternoon rains as they will be turning the atmosphere over and making it difficult for anything to form this afternoon. This should push the boundary down by the Ohio River and SPC will likely adjust at noon in their outlooks as well...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Going on 2 months without rain here in South Central Texas with temps near 105 every day, Unusual for September since this is suppose to be 2nd wettest month of the year here? Saw a couple of grass fires this morning driving around from idiots throwing cigarettes out the window most likely. Front coming down is suppose to be dry for my area but drop us below 100 hopefully.


Yeah I'm ready for this summer to be over. We've already had four small outside fires in my district in the last few days alone. The high pressure over the area has locked in and since the ground moisture is so low we are going back into that "ground sucks the atmosphere dry" pattern again. We need a high pressure buster type storm to get us back into a wetter pattern but the 100 temps are keeping any t-storm activity at bay.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning.....Isaac back for another bowl of Gumbo? Issac we just cleaned up and the kitchen is closed! ( as my Mom would say) Now go to Bed!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
Quite a few models look like they may want to bring 90L back around for another shot after it clears the state of FL




GFS is a reliable model.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1216. GetReal
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
1215. MahFL
Leslie now has an eye.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1214. dabirds
Quoting ILwthrfan:
It sure would be nice just FOR once a line of storms would actually roll through my area, but no instead it's this crap, every time. I am absolutely 100% convinced that there is some sort of mechanism in this area that discourages storm development.


Almost looks like it's getting a hook in Fayette Co., on 51 around Ramsey
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:


I think it may just be influencing the Panhandle of Florida right now....





Based on the flooded streets in South Walton County, I believe you are correct...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Clearwater1:
Yes, long range radar out of Tallahassee shows the whole mess drifting south into the Gulf.


And a mess it is. Some claim there is already a CoC and I say that's BS for now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quite a few models look like they may want to bring 90L back around for another shot after it clears the state of FL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hcubed [#1186]:


Even this paper, from a peer-reviewed source?
Yes, even that paper. In fact, especially that paper. Note this line from the abstract you reproduced:

"When the ice was at its minimum in northern Greenland, it greatly increased at Ellesmere Island to the west."

...and this one:

"The lack of uniformity in past sea-ice changes, which is probably related to large-scale atmospheric anomalies such as the Arctic Oscillation, is not well reproduced in models."

IOW, ice lost in previous events wasn't nearly as uniform then as it is today. The current situation--unprecedented for many tens of thousands of years--sees ice not just being moved like peas on a plate around by wind and currents as happened previously, but simply vanishing altogether as the Arctic waters rapidly warm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It sure would be nice just FOR once a line of storms would actually roll through my area, but no instead it's this crap, every time. I am absolutely 100% convinced that there is some sort of mechanism in this area that discourages storm development.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Leslie looks like a cinnamon roll. That would go nice with my morning coffee, actually. As for Nadine???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1207. 7544
90l seems to be GROWING in size might be quite large in another 6 hours and when it turns e it could cover most of fl pinisular imo the tricky part is going to be how long it hangs out there and how far south its going to get established before it heads to fl , time will tell but imo its going to cover alot land
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6695
Going on 2 months without rain here in South Central Texas with temps near 105 every day, Unusual for September since this is suppose to be 2nd wettest month of the year here? Saw a couple of grass fires this morning driving around from idiots throwing cigarettes out the window most likely. Front coming down is suppose to be dry for my area but drop us below 100 hopefully.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1205. VR46L
Quoting unknowncomic:
Ex-Isaac has some vorticity. Might influence Florida weather this weekend.


I think it may just be influencing the Panhandle of Florida right now....



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1204. guygee
Quoting hcubed:


Even this paper, from a peer-reviewed source?

Science

the title:

A 10,000-Year Record of Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Variability %u2013 View from the Beach

the authors:

Svend Funder, Hugues Goosse, Hans Jepsen, Eigil Kaas, Kurt H. Kjr, Niels J. Korsgaard, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Hans Linderson, Astrid Lys, Per Mller, Jesper Olsen and Eske Willerslev

finally the abstract:

Abstract

"...We present a sea-ice record from northern Greenland covering the past 10,000 years. Multiyear sea ice reached a minimum between ~8500 and 6000 years ago, when the limit of year-round sea ice at the coast of Greenland was located ~1000 kilometers to the north of its present position. The subsequent increase in multiyear sea ice culminated during the past 2500 years and is linked to an increase in ice export from the western Arctic and higher variability of ice-drift routes. When the ice was at its minimum in northern Greenland, it greatly increased at Ellesmere Island to the west. The lack of uniformity in past sea-ice changes, which is probably related to large-scale atmospheric anomalies such as the Arctic Oscillation, is not well reproduced in models. This needs to be further explored, as it is likely to have an impact on predictions of future sea-ice distribution..."
Just because the climate models do not perfectly reproduce certain aspects of natural variability such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) does not mean that their results are invalid. Any model output is bracketed by error bars that covers these imperfections. Also, for all we know the AO is a temporary phenomenon that just happens to have some periodicity in recent times. Human beings love to make patterns and impose periodicity where there really is none.

If you have ever been even an undergraduate college student in the sciences or engineering, and your professor let you turn in data without error estimates then you had a lazy professor.

Also note that the paper you cite is a study of a local area, not covering the entire globe. So this paper has little to no relevance to the issue of global warming.

Any questions?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
That man has a truly disturbed mind, worse than the weather lately.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I thought about posting a pic of her as Naine Cross.
Far and away my favorite SK novel.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1201. dabirds
Big boomers hitting S C IL right now, black outside, impressive radar presentation, rain and good gusts (50 mph). Stays like this as heads SE could be nasty later today. Wonder if this will move one of these systems eventually?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1200. icmoore
Link

College of DuPage
I really like this link.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thinking Michael might be a little bit better organized than given credit too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like HH will finally be going in to Leslie to take a look-see:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON SEPTEMBER 03 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-107

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 05/1800Z FIX
MISSION INTO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 27.0N 63.3W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting divdog:
According to weather channel a couple of minutes said the low was right around fort Walton beach dropping into the gulf soon
Yes, long range radar out of Tallahassee shows the whole mess drifting south into the Gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:
Nadine means evil in Stephan Kingese


M.o.o.n. spells evil


I thought about posting a pic of her as Naine Cross.
Far and away my favorite SK novel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1195. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Seeing some sort of eye like feature on Michael as well.



wow ... a pinhole-type eye too ... could be a hurricane by tonight
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Clearwater1:
Yep, that's what I was thinking. Another Debby set up, a north of TB, lots of rain and maybe a tornado or two.
During Debby, I was in a local Walmart and a tornado warning sounded. The whole store's staff and customers, including me were moved to the center of the store. Given free cookies and water, for about an hour.
Crazy thing was, that where we were positioned was right under a huge skylight and in the wall mirror and
dinner/glassware section of the storm.
The cookies were good.


That made me laugh... sad, but true.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Michael also exhibiting an eye like feature.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seeing some sort of eye like feature on Michael as well.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1191. VINNY04
Quoting Clearwater1:
Yep, that's what I was thinking. Another Debby set up, a north of TB, lots of rain and maybe a tornado or two.
During Debby, I was in a local Walmart and a tornado warning sounded. The whole store's staff and customers, including me were moved to the center of the store. Given free cookies and water, for about an hour.
Crazy thing was, that where we were positioned was right under a huge skylight and in the wall mirror and
dinner/glassware section of the store. The cookies were good.
Right! forget Debbie and forget the tornado, cookies are more inportant :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1190. SLU
Assuming Leslie is officially upgraded at 11am it will be 13-6-0 on September 5th. Not bad for an "el nino" season.

.. added to that, most hurricane seasons produce more named storms post-August 31st. We probably won't get more than 5 - 8 storms this season but our numbers could close in on 19 storms again for 3 straight years by the end of the season.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is it safe to say now that New England will not get hit by Leslie?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1187. divdog
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I have terrible grammar this morning, as I have not yet had my cup of coffee. Former Issac seems to be sliding his circulation right down that band that formed yesterday, I could be wrong but it seems like the center is just east of Pensacola, FL. Tropics are in full gear.

According to weather channel a couple of minutes said the low was right around fort Walton beach dropping into the gulf soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1237 - 1187

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
74 °F
Partly Cloudy