Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BA:
RE: "swirly thing in center of GOM"

So I guess cloaked space ships aren't completely invisible after all, they affect the weather around them.


Kirk making a re-appearance in a cloaked cling on vessel? The cloaked cyclone, you read it here first!
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Quoting DontNeedNoHandle:



Hooray Science!
Quoting RTSplayer:


Katrina at landfall ranks higher than Andrew on both the HSI and the Integrated Kinetic Energy indexes....FAR higher on IKE index...


Integrated Kinetic Energy is a scientific unit, and is not subject to arbitrary biases.


Katrina over open water dwarfs Andrew's IKE value, and beats Andrew's maximum HSI value by at least 17 points.

Katrina's landfall HSI beats Andrews maximum value by at least 3 points and possibly 6 points.

Katrina's maximum storm surge and wave heights are nearly double that of Andrew, and affected several times the area.


Katrina's Integrated Kinetic Energy is almost exactly double that of Camille, and nearly four times that of Andrew's Florida landfall.


That's right, Katrina had nearly FOUR times the Integrated Kinetic Energy of Andrew's Florida landfall.

Which pretty well means Andrew isn't even in Katrina's league, ya kinda gotta be within at least 20% or so to be considered in the same league/category, IMO.

Source, from NOAA paper:

Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy


Turns out, Katrina's LA landfall and Wilma's Florida landfall are rated about the same, then again, Florida isn't below sea level and that approach angle did not maximize storm surge, so there were few deaths from Wilma in Florida, in spite of the botched intensity forecast.


You just proved Max Mayfield's point, in that Andrew was not 'the big one'. We are still 'waiting' for the big one to hit South Florida and I am hoping it doesn't happen in my lifetime.

He was, however, very destructive and caused a lot of severe damage and loss of life. Imagine if the eyewall had hit downtown Miami and Miami Beach. By our saving grace, he was not a large diameter storm and did not carry a huge and large area of storm surge. Although he did get to the second floor of houses off of Old Cutler Road and on the ocean in South Miami-Dade...
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Andrew was really bad at landfall and was even worse than Katrina, but it was in a small area since Andrew was a small storm and Katrina was a massive storm. Also, Katrina did 25 foot surge over wide area and in area that are below sea level. Andrew did worse damage, but Katrina damage was by far more widespread. They are equally as bad IMO.
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I just noticed something and I'm not sure if any of you noticed it, but look at the pressure difference:





Both are at 500 mb. heights.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
LOL...SMALL MICHAEL STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 4
Location: 27.5°N 43.7°W
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Michael's TS-force wind radius is just larger than that of Cyclone Tracy. He really is small.
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Some kind of heat low out there in central gulf, even this morning on rainbow loop it had purples around it representing hot air.

Loop
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Got to love it when NHC does some humor once in awhile...
Yep.........Good to know they are people just like us.......And maybe the would like a Bud Light sometimes too
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And for Leslie:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 25.3N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 25.7N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 26.1N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 26.5N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 26.9N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 27.5N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 29.5N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/CANGIALOSI
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

...SMALL MICHAEL STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 43.7W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Got to love it when NHC does some humor once in awhile...
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For Michael:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 27.5N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 28.1N 43.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 28.8N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 29.4N 43.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 29.9N 42.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 30.9N 43.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 33.5N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting RTSplayer:


Katrina at landfall ranks higher than Andrew on both the HSI and the Integrated Kinetic Energy indexes....FAR higher on IKE index...


Integrated Kinetic Energy is a scientific unit, and is not subject to arbitrary biases.


Katrina over open water dwarfs Andrew's IKE value, and beats Andrew's maximum HSI value by at least 17 points.

Katrina's landfall HSI beats Andrews maximum value by at least 3 points and possibly 6 points.

Katrina's maximum storm surge and wave heights are nearly double that of Andrew, and affected several times the area.


Katrina's Integrated Kinetic Energy is almost exactly double that of Camille, and nearly four times that of Andrew's Florida landfall.


That's right, Katrina had nearly FOUR times the Integrated Kinetic Energy of Andrew's Florida landfall.

Which pretty well means Andrew isn't even in Katrina's league.



Hooray Science!
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I was going to mention earlier about the little spin in the central gulf at 25n 87 west, but I thought I it could be a hallucination. But in the days of Marco and Mike anything is possible?
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LOL...SMALL MICHAEL STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 4
Location: 27.5°N 43.7°W
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

...SMALL MICHAEL STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 43.7W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Looks like a nice healthy flow of storms coming up the African coast there Grothar.

BTW, If the 'I' storms are creating havock, historically. I am a little concerned about the R and W storm names as well.

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Well, how about that? Could easily make a run for hurricane status before that time frame.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 43.7W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 43.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.1N 43.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.8N 43.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.4N 43.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.9N 42.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.9N 43.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 33.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
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I understand the renaming of systems after they lose storm status then re-generate later.....Butt But;I hate it because it bloats the season numbers of named storms. I beleive the original invest number should be attached so even if it gains two names we can always trace it to the original wave? Oh hey here comes Isaac... This would be a weird way for my forecast to be correct but I told ya it was gona go north then across Tampa I just left out the come back from Indiana part. LOL
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Quoting FL1980:


Did you just say that Katrina was more powerful than Andrew?? You can't be serious..


Katrina at landfall ranks higher than Andrew on both the HSI and the Integrated Kinetic Energy indexes....FAR higher on IKE index...


Integrated Kinetic Energy is a scientific unit, and is not subject to arbitrary biases.


Katrina over open water dwarfs Andrew's IKE value, and beats Andrew's maximum HSI value by at least 17 points.

Katrina's landfall HSI beats Andrews maximum value by at least 3 points and possibly 6 points.

Katrina's maximum storm surge and wave heights are nearly double that of Andrew, and affected several times the area.


Katrina's Integrated Kinetic Energy is almost exactly double that of Camille, and nearly four times that of Andrew's Florida landfall.


That's right, Katrina had nearly FOUR times the Integrated Kinetic Energy of Andrew's Florida landfall.

Which pretty well means Andrew isn't even in Katrina's league, ya kinda gotta be within at least 20% or so to be considered in the same league/category, IMO.

Source, from NOAA paper:

Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy


Turns out, Katrina's LA landfall and Wilma's Florida landfall are rated about the same, then again, Florida isn't below sea level and that approach angle did not maximize storm surge, so there were few deaths from Wilma in Florida, in spite of the botched intensity forecast.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
IDK whichever one decides to develop first, will it be the one in the Gulf or off the coast of Africa, stay tuned to find out.
Edit that post, Nadine would be the one in the Gulf and Oscar off the coast of Africa, assuming the NHC doesn't decide to bring back Isaac.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
416. BA
RE: "swirly thing in center of GOM"

So I guess cloaked space ships aren't completely invisible after all, they affect the weather around them.
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BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012

...JOHN BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 117.7W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Quoting flcanes:

nadine or oscar
IDK whichever one decides to develop first, will it be the one in the Gulf or off the coast of Africa, stay tuned to find out.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That is one fat cone.

fat all right
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
‏@WKRG_Pat

@28storms we checked it out after Coast Guard said it wasn't oil- looks like clumps of clay, dirt and sea grass/seaweed-no oil odor or film

wow
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like Leslie is going to be flying as it heads by Bermuda:

That is one fat cone.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
120 hrs. whatever develops in the Gulf is short lived and gets strung out as it approaches the west coast of FL.



Looks like regardless we are going to get some gusty winds:


nadine or oscar
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‏@WKRG_Pat

@28storms we checked it out after Coast Guard said it wasn't oil- looks like clumps of clay, dirt and sea grass/seaweed-no oil odor or film
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Quoting DontNeedNoHandle:
I'm interested to see how ex-Isaac interacts with the swirl in the Gulf. If ex-Isaac can get steered in that direction is there any chance it slides over the top and yields one system?

maybe
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120 hrs. whatever develops in the Gulf is short lived and gets strung out as it approaches the west coast of FL.



Looks like regardless we are going to get some gusty winds:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Leslie is also becoming better organized.


Michael, don't you dare think about doing what you look like you might be doing.

T3.0/3.0 MICHAEL

AL, 13, 2012090418, , BEST, 0, 273N, 436W, 45, 1006, TS



lol.... ?...
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 042031
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012



.....................





WHILE THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY...LESLIE CONTINUES TO DRIFT GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THE LONG-
TERM INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IMPARTING A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY MOTION. LESLIE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS
IT MOVES AROUND THIS RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WESTWARD TRACK
THIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED ACCORDINGLY.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting sar2401:


The NHC mentioned it in their morning discussion.
What did they say?
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Quoting LargoFl:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
WESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTH CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 327 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS INDICATED OVER THE
WARNED AREA AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE MID EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POARCH CREEK RESERVATION... FLOMATON...
CENTURY... I65 AND CR 47... I65 AND AL 287...
URIAH... MEGARGEL... I65 AND CR 6...
I65 AND AL 41...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER CROSSES A ROAD. TURN AROUND - DON'T DROWN!

ouch
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I'm interested to see how ex-Isaac interacts with the swirl in the Gulf. If ex-Isaac can get steered in that direction is there any chance it slides over the top and yields one system?
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Quoting LargoFl:
so far alot of rain for florida
Is that what the Euro is alluding to in 72?
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Looks like Leslie is going to be flying as it heads by Bermuda:

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Quoting LargoFl:
so far alot of rain for florida

hmmm?
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
WESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTH CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 327 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS INDICATED OVER THE
WARNED AREA AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE MID EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POARCH CREEK RESERVATION... FLOMATON...
CENTURY... I65 AND CR 47... I65 AND AL 287...
URIAH... MEGARGEL... I65 AND CR 6...
I65 AND AL 41...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER CROSSES A ROAD. TURN AROUND - DON'T DROWN!
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Quoting Times2:

Is anyone talking about it??? NHC, TWC?


The NHC mentioned it in their morning discussion.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
True...though the caption states it was taken today:

oil

man
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Quoting Times2:
What are you thinking?
so far alot of rain for florida
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Leslie is also becoming better organized.


Michael, don't you dare think about doing what you look like you might be doing.

T3.0/3.0 MICHAEL

AL, 13, 2012090418, , BEST, 0, 273N, 436W, 45, 1006, TS
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Quoting LargoFl:
not just yet
What are you thinking?
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Quoting sar2401:


It will take some refinement and work to be able to calculate things like total kinetic energy in real time, but I think it's a good start. BTW, the NHC is not going to like this idea. From Wikipedia:

"In 2009, the NHC made moves to eliminate pressure and storm surge ranges from the categories, transforming it into a pure wind scale, called the Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (Experimental) [SSHWS].[5] The new scale became operational on May 15, 2010.[6] The scale excludes flood ranges, storm surge estimations, rainfall, and location, which means a Category 2 hurricane which hits a major city will likely do far more cumulative damage than a Category 5 hurricane that hits a rural area.[7] The agency cited various hurricanes as reasons for removing the "scientifically inaccurate" information, including Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Ike (2008), which both had stronger than estimated storm surges, and Hurricane Charley (2004), which had weaker than estimated storm surge.[8]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simps on_Hurricane_Scale

wow
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Quoting MahFL:


That picture could have been taken years ago.
True...though the caption states it was taken today:

oil
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Quoting Times2:

Is anyone talking about it??? NHC, TWC?
not just yet
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Katrina was a Category 4 with 145 mph winds (IIRC) at its first landfall. Andrew had winds in excess of 160 mph.


Actually, it was 125mph Category 3.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
swirly thing in central gulf has hot air around it, notice the black around it




Hot air, and a single solitary thunderstorm. Note the cirrus clouds going overhead from the NE.
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Quoting DocNDswamp:


Perhaps I read that too quickly... as I was gonna ask - Why, was it your deciding vote or missing chad that put him in office in 2000?
;)


It was a hanging chad.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208

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